Presentation by Dr. Nsarellah Nasarellah (INRA, Morocco) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 9, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

1. STATUS OF WHEAT PRODUCTION
AND FOOD SECURITY IN MOROCCO
Nsarellah N.
On behalf of the
Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Morocco.
Food security conference
8 – 11 Octobre 2012
Addis Abeba Ethiopia

2. Outline :
• Current wheat situation and trends in Morocco
• Constraints: wheat production and food security
• Conclusions: long term research goals and
development strategies

3. Wheat in Morocco
• Bread wheat > 2Mha, durum wheat 1Mha
• Major staple, consumption: 220 Kg/cap/yr.
• 36 Millions people, producction of 5 to 6 MMT.
• Mainly in rainfed / drought-prone areas
• Mediterranean climate, F-W-S growing season,
mild winter, wide regional variability
• Highly variable precipitation pattern and large
inter-annual fluctuations.

4. Wheat and barley, perfectly fit for :
• Environment (rainfall, Tc, variability ..)
• Technology (Agronomy, rotation, weed
control, ...)
• Full integration with animal production
• Profitability (500 US$ - 2000 US$ /
ha)
• Mediterranean culture

5. Description of the value chain
• 1.2 Million producers, 300,000 market oriented
• Industrial millers: 211 units (143 BW, 58DW 19
barley) capacity 9,1 Million MT.
• Small millers 10,000 units 35% of volumes
• Service and products providers (seed, fertilizers,
phyto sanitary, agricultural equipment
• Collectors, traders, intermediaries, storers,
distribution
• Traditional processing and products. Modern
bakeries, couscous / pasta factories.
• Organisations of professionnals

6. Recent history
• Dams and irrigation plans (>1 MHa)
• Financing and agricultural banks
• Intensification programs (fertilizers,
mechanisation etc.. )
• Breadwheat intensification pgm 1980s
• Collecting and pricing for breadwheat.
• Variable taxation of imports / liberalisation
• Storage facilities support,
• Agricultural Insurances
• Green Morocco plan

7. Policy favoring
breadwheat
Areas planted
3 000
2 500
2 000
1000 Ha
BW
1 500 DW
Barley
1 000
500
0
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Years

8. Wheat Production
50 000
45 000
40 000
35 000
x 1000 Qx
30 000
Breadwheat
25 000
Durum wheat
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
60
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
96
00
04
08
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20 Years

9. Qx/ha
19
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
76
19
80
19
84
19
88
Years
19
92
Wheat Yields
19
96
20
00
20
04
20
08
BW
DW

10. Sufficiency rate 1995 - 2007
100 y = 0,5438x + 62,269
90
80 R2 = 0,027
% coverage
70 Tx couverture BT
60 Tx couverture BD
50
40 Linéaire (Tx couverture BT)
y = 2,4638x + 35,762
30 Linéaire (Tx couverture BD)
20 R2 = 0,3143
10
0
20 00
19 -96
19 -97
19 -98
99 9
20 01
20 -02
20 -03
20 -04
20 -05
20 -06
7
19 98-9
-0
0
-
95
96
97
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
-2
19
Years

11. Moving averages of rainfall in Meknes (favorable wheat area)
1000
900
800
639mm
576mm
700
600
478mm
500 438mm
383mm
400
300
200
100
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

12. Moving averages of rainfall in Settat (dryland wheat area)
1000
Settat
900
800 Rupture
700 378mm 365mm
Pluviométrie (mm)
1915 - 1939 1940 - 1979
600 293mm
1980 - 2006
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 910 1 920 1 930 1 940 1 950 1 960 1 970 1 980 1 990 2 000 2 010 2 020

13. 25
20
Rendement (Q/ha)
15
10
5
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

14. contribution to deviation
Genotype(G)
Location (L) 24 varieties,
Year (Y)
5 years and
GxL
GxY five sites
LxY
GxLxY
Contribution to deviation
In this case study:
The environment is responsible E
G
GE
for 50 - 89% Of the variation
(most of it related
to water availability)
The genotype, (G and GE) is
responsible for 11 to 50 %

15. Water is the main stress and is affecting all
stresses
Good years stresses
• Waterlogging related root rots
• Yellow and brown rusts
• Septoria, helminthosporium
• Hessain fly, sawfly, Water availability
• End of season heat
also affects
Dry years stresses farmers
• Water stress Behaviour too
• Hessian fly
• Dryland root rot
• Yellow rusts, leaf rusts
• heat

16. Wheat research in Morocco
• Breeding, Biotechnology, genetic resources
conservation
• Crop management, conservation agriculture ..
• Plant protection IPM.
• Grain quality improvement, add value of end products
• Socio-economy
• Research and development
• INRA is main, 12 exp. Sites, 300 researchers.
• Long established work with CGIAR centers (CIMMYT
and ICARDA) Joint activities, networks and projects on
related fields with ICARDA. Numerous collaboration in
USA and EU.
• North Africa and S. S. Africa

17. Recent policy
(Green Morocco Plan, or GMP)
• Encourages aggregation and organization of production
• Agregation includes all activities in value chain; It could
be related to end production at the level of the farm, the
community and the national market.
• State support is for accepted integrated projects.
• Helps investments in inputs, machinery or infrastructure
that would improve productivity;
• Certified seed is one of the emphasized factors.
• GMP aims at improving productivity while cutting on
wheat areas in drought prone zones.

18. 25 Zones to be
unsupported 2006
1991
2003
20 1994
1996
1986 2004
Rendement (Q/ha)
1988
1989 1998
15 1982 1985 2002
1983 1990 2001 2005
1980 1987
1997
1984
10 1979 1993 1999
1992 1995 2000
5 1981
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728
Années
Trends in breadwheat

19. Basic constraints still remaining
1. Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and
abiotic stresses: High Risk for investments
2. Small size and fragmentation of holding:
technical difficulties hampers modernisation of
production
3. The value chain is continuously changing:
relations, prices and services, role of the state,
world market. etc..
ADD Interaction of all above

20. Our response to constraints
1) Climatic uncertainty and related biotic and abiotic
stresses: High Risk for investments
• Scientific research : crop production technologies, crop
varieties, natural resources management, grain quality,
basic scientific and socio economic knowledge.. Results are
all there but still needs adoption (C. seeds) and impact
•What about development alternatives (irrigation ?)
Yields in irrigated areas can be > 5T/ha at the farm, Supplemental
irrigation may double yield in dry years. 150 dams,

21. Our response to constraints (2)
Small size and fragmentation of holdings:
technical difficulties hampers modernisation
of production
• Development: Agregation, and other forms of
farmers organisation.
• State facilitates or subsidizes modern agriculture
(projects)

22. Our response to constraints (3)
The value chain is continuously changing: clients
preferences, relations, prices and services, role of
the state, world market. etc..
• Forum for networking and contacts of value chain or
system.
• State subsidises / facilitates agregated production. (Millers,
seed producers, producers etc.. )
•Agregator can be any of stake holders. Helping other
private entrepreneurs establish.

23. Conclusions
Research must continue: Diagnosing, preventing
losses, developping technical solutions
But the greatest remaining challenges are :
1. Technology transfer
2. Value chain integration
3. State policies and legislations
4. Integration of research in the value chain

24. Closing comments:
• States should schift from a cost benefit analysis
to an oportunity cost analysis to better adress food
security.
• Climate and global market changes are and will
be impacting Morocco and North Africa heavily;
they should be our main worry in tackling food
security.

26. Drier, Hotter, & More Variable

27. Thank you for your attention