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Trend indicator
Real Estate Assets Investment
Belgium 2012
Key findings for 2012



                           84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location.

                           The capital and transaction markets are viewed with moderate
                           optimism

                           Prices in prime locations will stay stable

                           Strongest seller groups: Residential real estate companies, real estate
                           corporations/REITs and banks

                           Strongest buyer groups: Real estate corporations/REITs


                           Office properties will have the highest focus for investors

                           Preferred regions: Brussels (offices), Leuven (retail) and Gent
                           (residential)




January 2012   Page 2   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Agenda




  Trend Indicator
  real estate assets investment
  Belgium 2012



                                  About the trend indicator 2012


                                  Market outlook Belgium 2012


                                  Investment strategy Belgium 2012


                                  European outlook 2012




January 2012             Page 3   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Trend indicator
    real estate assets investment
                    Belgium 2012




© euroluftbild.de
Our trend indicator covers a broad range of investor groups in Belgium…



Trend indicator: real estate assets investment                                                                     Investor groups

►   Survey of about 25 companies and investors who have been active in the Belgian                                 Real estate services firm (30%)
    property market in recent years                                                                                Publicly listed company / REIT (14%)

►   The survey looks at two topics:                                                                                Institutional investor / Pension fund (12%)
                                                                                                                   Other UK lending bank (8%)
    ►   General assessment of the Belgian real estate investment market in 2012 by
        real estate investors                                                                                      Other debt provider (8%)
                                                                                                                   Private property company (8%)
    ►   Analysis of the strategy pursued by real estate investors in Belgium with
        respect to the development of the real estate market                                                       Open-ended fund (8%)
                                                                                                                   Private equity / Opportunity / Hedge fund (4%)
                                                                                                                   Other, please specify (8%)




          1 Background                                    2 Aims                                                3 Method
         ►   Ernst & Young Real Estate has conducted     ►   Assessment of the Belgian real estate             ►   The trend indicator is based on a survey
             this survey in Germany since 2006 and in        investment market in the year to come.                conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit in
             Switzerland since 2010.                     ►   Outlook on the strategy which Belgian investors       November and December 2011.
         ►   This year it was extended to Belgium for        will pursue in the coming year.                   ►   The feedback of the interviews forms the results
             the first time.                                                                                       of the trend indicator.




January 2012                     Page 5                 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… the same survey was also executed in other European countries



European trend indicator: real estate assets investment
►   The survey includes for the first time 12 European countries
►   All surveys took place in November and December 2011
►   Across these countries, we have gathered feedback from a total of 550
    companies who are active on the real estate market




           Participating Countries
       ►   Austria                           ►   Luxembourg                                          ►    Spain
       ►   Belgium                           ►   Netherlands                                         ►    Sweden
       ►   France                            ►   Poland                                              ►    Switzerland
       ►   Germany                           ►   Russia                                              ►    United Kingdom




January 2012               Page 6           Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location in 2012 …



Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments
                                                                                                                            Key messages
                                                                                                                            ►   A clear majority (84%) views
                                  69%                                                                                           Belgium as an attractive or very
                                                                                                                                attractive real estate investment
                                                                                                                                location in 2012




          15%
                                                           12%
                                                                                   4%
                                                                                                            0%

     Very attractive            Attractive            Less attractive            Neutral               No response




Original question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012?”

January 2012                        Page 7                    Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… particularly compared with other European countries



                                                             Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments
  Key messages
                                                             compared to other countries
  ►   The majority rated Belgium as
      attractive or very attractive                                                           43%

      compared to other countries (58%)
  ►   27% of the participants are neutral
                                                                                                                                              27%
      about the relative attractiveness
      of Belgium
                                                                       15%                                             15%




                                                                                                                                                            0%

                                                                  Very attractive           Attractive            Less attractive            Neutral    No response




Original question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012 compared to other countries?”

January 2012                       Page 8                    Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
The capital markets in 2012 are viewed with moderate optimism …



          "Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive
"Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the
                              real estate market."
                        investors towards the real estate market."
                                                                                  8%                        61%                            19%         12%    ►   High inflation will drive investors
                                                                                                                                                                  towards real estate (69%)
    "The "The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly
         euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in
                                                                                  12%                       53%                           23%          12%
                      European real estate markets."
             reduce activity in European real estate markets. “                                                                                               ►   Euro crisis will reduce activities in
        Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies
“Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly
                                                                                                                                                                  the real estate market (65%)
     act as debt providers for real estate investments in for future.”
        could increasingly act as debt providers the real estate                                     58%                            23%               19%
                                          investments in the future.”                                                                                         ►   Insurance companies to increasingly
    "There will will be increased transaction activity a result of real
      "There be increased transaction activity in 2012, as in 2012, as                                                                                            act as debt providers (58%)
     estate assets of realto market out of restructuring market out of
         a result coming estate assets coming to of secured debt                  8%                  46%                      23%                23%
                                 facilities."
                          restructuring of secured debt facilities."                                                                                          ►   Increase in transactions (54%)
 "Banks will reduce their exposure to commercial real commercial real
         "Banks will reduce their exposure to estate holdings over
                                                                                  12%                 41%                           35%               4% 8%   ►   Banks will reduce commercial real
                      estate holdings over the next 12 months.”
                           the next 12 months."
                                                                                                                                                                  estate holdings (53%)
       "The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less
"The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less attractive for banks
       attractive for banksrestraint inleadmortgage business."
       and will lead to greater and will the to greater restraint in               15%                31%                19%        8%           27%          ►   Restraints in mortgage availability
                                               the mortgage business."                                                                                            due to Basel III (46%)
       "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real estate sector in
          "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real
                                      2012."
                                                estate sector in 2012.”
                                                                                  8%            34%                      27%          8%          23%         ►   Increase in M&A activities (42%)
                                                                                                                                                              ►   CMBS will revive in 2012 (38%)
     "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will
  "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will revive in 2012."         8%           30%                    31%            4%          27%
                                                         revive in 2012."                                                                                     ►   IPOs and equity issuance will
      "Capital markets will become become morefor real estate IPOs and
         "Capital markets will more attractive attractive for real
                                                                                                                                                                  increase (36%)
                            equity capital increases."                            8%          28%                  24%         8%               32%
                         estate IPOs and equity capital increases."

                  Strongly agree              Agree              Disagree              Strongly disagree              Neutral             No response
                                          Strongly agree               Agree               Disagree               Strongly Ddsagree              Neutral



   Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate financial/capital market in 2012 do you agree with?”

   January 2012                                   Page 9                          Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and the transaction market is expected to be also moderate in 2012



                                                            "‟Green‟ building standards will play a more important role
  ►   Green building standards will play a                in the real estate investment market in the future, alsomore
                                                                          "‟Green‟ building standards will play a with
                                                                                                                                     38%                    38%               12% 4% 8%
                                                                        respect to role in the in existing investment
                                                                         important investmentsreal estate real estate."…
      more important role in the future
      (76%)                                                  “There will be more more new project developments in
                                                                  “There will be new project developments in 2012.”
                                                                                                                                              65%                       19%     4% 12%
                                                                                       2012.”
  ►   More project developments in
      2012 (65%)                                              “There will be more realfinancial investors will be more
                                                                      “International estate portfolio deals in 2012.”
                                                                                                                            8%                46%                 23%     4%        19%
                                                                      attracted to the real estate market in 2012.”
  ►   International financial investors                       “International financial investors will be more attracted
                                                                   “There will be more real estate portfolio deals in
      increasingly attracted (54%)                                                 to the 2012.”
                                                                                          real estate market in 2012.”       12%              41%            8% 4%            35%

  ►   More portfolio deals (53%)                             “On average, the size of the size of real estate deals will
                                                                      “On average, real estate deals will increase in
                                                                                            2012 compared to 2011.”          12%              38%                 35%               15%
  ►   Increased deal size (50%)                                           increase in 2012 compared to 2011.”

  ►   Increased transaction volume                           “Overall, the transaction volume volume will continue to
                                                                   “Overall, the transaction will continue to recover
                                                                                                                            4% 15%                   54%                 4%     23%
      compared to 2011 (19%)                                        recover2012 and and exceed levellevel seen in …
                                                                          in in 2012 exceed the the seen in 2011.”

                                                                       Strongly agree      Agree         Disagree      Strongly disagree       Neutral     No response
                                                                                        Strongly agree              Agree          Disagree         Strongly disagree           Neutral




Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate transaction market in 2012 do you agree with?”

January 2012                       Page 10                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Price trends will vary depending on location …



  Key messages                                                  Office                                                         Retail
  ►   Prices for offices in prime locations                                                                        53%
      will increase (35%) or stay stable                                                                                                          43%
      (42%)                                                                              42%                             43%    38%                     38%
                                                                                                     38%                                    35%               34%
  ►   Retail in prime locations will                              35%                          35%                                    31%                                 31% 31%

      increase (38%) or stay stable (43%)
                                                                                                             23%                                                    19%
                                                                                19%

                                                                        12%




                                                                   Increasing
                                                                    Increasing              Stable
                                                                                            Stable            Decreasing
                                                                                                              Decreasing         Increasing
                                                                                                                                  Increasing        Stable
                                                                                                                                                    Stable          Decreasing
                                                                                                                                                                    Decreasing

                                                                        Prime         Secondary        Periphery



 The figures on page 12,13,16,17,18,19 and 22 may not add
 up to 100% as the charts do not include cases of no response




Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”

January 2012                           Page 11                  Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and type of use



Residential                                                      Hotel                                                    Key messages
                             60%                                                                                          ►    The majority expects prices of
                                                                                                                               residential properties to remain
                                                                                           48%
                      48%          48%
                                                                   43%                           43%
                                                                                                                               stable in all locations
                                                                                                       38% 40% 38%
                                                                                                                          ►    Many expect attractiveness of
   32%
               28%                                   28%
                                                                                                                               hotel investments, especially in
                                                           24%                                                                 prime locations to increase (43%),
                                               20%                             19%   19%
                                                                                                                               other locations are considered to
         12%                                                             12%
                                                                                                                               be stable


    Increasing
    Increasing              Stable
                            Stable             Decreasing
                                               Decreasing            Increasing
                                                                     Increasing        Stable
                                                                                       Stable           Decreasing
                                                                                                       Decreasing

   Prime        Secondary          Periphery




Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”

January 2012                           Page 12                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Who will be the most active seller groups in Belgium in 2012 …



 Seller groups
                                                                                                                                Key messages
Residential real estate real estate
            Residential companies                         53%                                  35%                   12%
                        companies                                                                                               ►   In addition to the residential real
  Real estate corporations/REITs            19%                                66%                                  15%
                                                                                                                                    estate companies (88%), real
   Real estate corporations/REITs
                                                                                                                                    estate corporations/REITs (85%)
                             Banks
                            Banks      8%                               73%                                        19%              and banks (81%) will be the most
                                                                                                                                    active seller groups in 2012
               Open-ended funds
               Open-ended Funds                27%                           42%                             31%
                                                                                                                                ►   Banks in surrounding countries in
                     Public sector
                     Public sector      12%                           57%                                    31%                    top three sellers
             Insurance companies
             Insurance companies            19%                        46%                                 35%                  ►   Open-ended funds and public
                                                                                                                                    sector will be slightly less active
        Corporates (non-property)
       Corporates (Non-Property)                  31%                        34%                           35%                      sellers groups
        Other international funds
         Other international Funds      12%                     46%                                    42%                      ►   Closed-ended funds and PE-funds
                                                                                                                                    are seen as the most moderate
            Opportunity-/PE-funds
           Opportunity-/PE-Funds      4%                      54%                                    38%                  4%        seller groups
               Closed-ended funds
                 Closed-end Funds                       46%                                      54%

                            Active      Moderately Moderately active
                                        Active     active      Cautious          No response response
                                                                              Cautious     No




 Original question – “How active do you think the following seller groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?”

 January 2012                         Page 13                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and who will be the buyers in Belgium?



  Key messages
                                                              Buyer groups
                                                                  Real estate corporations/REITs                  31%                                50%                            19%
  ►   Real estate corporations/REITs                             Real estate corporations/REITs
      (81%) will be the most active
                                                                             Insurance companies
                                                                           Insurance companies                 27%                             46%                                27%
      group of buyers
  ►   All other types of buyers seem to                                 Other international funds
                                                                       Other international funds            19%                             54%                                   27%
      be equally active on the market
                                                                               Open-ended Funds
                                                                              Open-ended funds              19%                             54%                                   27%
  ►   Only opportunity/PE-Funds are
      expected to be less active                                           Residential real estate
                                                                          Residential real estate      8%                           61%                                       31%
                                                                                 companies
                                                                                      companies

                                                                                            Banks
                                                                                          Banks         12%                           57%                                     31%


                                                                                 Closed-end Funds
                                                                               Closed-end funds                   34%                             35%                         31%


                                                                            Private/Family Office
                                                                           Private/Family office            19%                        46%                                   35%


                                                                           Sovereign wealth funds        15%                          50%                                   31%           4%
                                                                         Sovereign wealth funds

                                                                           Opportunity-/PE-Funds        12%                   38%                                     46%                 4%
                                                                          Opportunity-/PE-funds

                                                                                                                     Active      Moderately active         Cautious         No response
                                                                                                  Active     Moderately active      Cautious         No response
Original question – “How active do you think the following buyer groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?”

January 2012                        Page 14                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
The following use types will be popular …



Strong or moderate investment focus
                                                                                                                              Key messages
                                                                                                                              ►    Office properties will have the
                                                                     53%                                53%                        highest focus for investors (27%)
                                                                              42%      43%                                    ►    Generally all use types will have a
                                                                                                                                   more moderate investment focus
                                                                                                  31%
        27%
                 19%      19%

                                                  8%
                                     4%


                         Strong                                                      Moderate

                           Office        Retail        Residential      Logistics     Hotel
                Office          Retail            Residential            Logistics        Hotel




Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”

January 2012                         Page 15                         Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and not so popular with investors in 2012



                                                              Lower or no investment focus
  Key messages
  ►   Logistic investments are in a low
                                                                                                      42%
      investment focus


                                                                                                                                          27%
                                                                                                                                                     23%     23%
                                                                                                                                                                     19%
                                                                                             15%
                                                                        12%      12%                           12%
                                                                                                                                    8%



                                                                                             Low                                                 No focus

                                                                                             Office      Retail      Residential     Logistics       Hotel
                                                                                    Office            Retail          Residential        Logistics           Hotel




Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”

January 2012                       Page 16                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Investors prefer Brussels and Antwerpen for office investments, for
retail investments Leuven-Gent-Antwerp are more in the focus …


Office and Retail focus
                                                                                                                       Key messages
                                                                                                                       ►   Brussels (58%) and Antwerp (34%)
                                                                                                                           will be the most attractive
      58%
                                                                                                                           locations for offices
                                                                                                                       ►   Retail investments are expected to
                                                                                                                           be stronger in Leuven (30%),
              34%
                                                                                       30%                                 Antwerp (27%) and Gent (27%)
                                                                         27%    27%
                       19%
                                                                 15%                                             15%
                             12%      12%                                                        12%     12%
                                                   8%
                                            4%


                             Office                                                   Retail

            Brussels        Antwerp
                       Brussel            Gent Gent
                                  Antwerpen               Leuven
                                                           Leuven       Namen
                                                                        Namen       Luik
                                                                                      Luik     Kortrijk
                                                                                                      Kortrijk




Original question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?”

January 2012                          Page 17               Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… residential investments are preferred in Flanders



                                                             Residential and no focus
  Key messages
  ►   For residential investments,
      investors prefer Flanders i.e. Gent                                       30%
      (30%) and Leuven (23%)
                                                                                       23%
                                                                 19%                                 19%     19%


                                                                                               12%                                        12%                   12%
                                                                                                                                                  10%
                                                                                                                                     8%                  8%
                                                                         4%                                                    4%
                                                                                                                         0%

                                                                                    Residential                                           Other

                                                                                 Brussel Antwerpen
                                                                          Brussels          Antwerpen        Gent
                                                                                                           Gent     Leuven
                                                                                                                     Leuven   Namen
                                                                                                                                Namen Luik Luik
                                                                                                                                              Kortrijk   Kortrijk




Original question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?”

January 2012                       Page 18                  Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
The greatest impediments to deal flow in 2012 will be…



Impediments to deal flow
                                                                                                                                 Key messages
                                                                                                                                 ►   The availability of senior debt
                                     Availability of senior
                               Availability of senior debt
                                          debt funding
                                                  funding
                                                                12%                         60%                    12% 4% 12%        funds (72%) and availability of
                                                                                                                                     junior debt funding (50%) are the
                                                                                                                                     greatest impediments for deal
                                      Availability of junior
                                Availability of junior debt
                                           debt funding
                                                   funding
                                                                  19%                 31%             19%         8%   23%           flows
                                                                                                                                 ►   Price mismatch between buyers &
                                       Price mismatch                                                                                sellers is an additional hurdle
                                Price mismatch between
                                     between buyers and         8%             38%                  23%       4%       27%
                                      buyers and sellers
                                            sellers
                                                                                                                                     (46%)
                                                                                                                                 ►   Need for capital injection (42%)
                                Level of capitalof Capital
                                         Level injection                                                                             becomes important
                                                 required
                                                                     23%              19%         23%        12%       23%
                                        Injection required

                                                 Strongly agree               Agree               Disagree

                                Strongly agree          Agree              Disagree           Strongly disagree        Neutral




Original question – “Do you agree or disagree that the following will be impediments to deal flow in 2012?”

January 2012                        Page 19                     Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and the following bank actions are expected for problem loans



                                                              Bank actions to handle problem loans
  Key messages
  ►   Extension of loan repayment                                                     Banks will extend loan
                                                                                      Banks will extend loan
                                                                                         repayment period         8%                     57%                        23%            8% 4%
      period is considered to be the                                                    repayment period
      most effective action to handle
      problem loans (65%)                                                       Banks will increase debt-for-
                                                                                   Banks will increase debt-
                                                                                                equity swaps      8%                   50%                  15%         8%      19%
                                                                                       for-equity swaps
  ►   Debt-for-equity swaps are
      increasing (58%)
                                                                                      Banks will increase
                                                                             Banks will increase consensual
                                                                                  consensual restructuring
                                                                                         restructuring deals           19%             27%                31%           4%      19%
                                                                                              deals


                                                                                    Banks will increasingly
                                                                             Banks will increasingly replace
                                                                                                                  12%         23%                   34%                      31%
                                                                                   replaceasset managers
                                                                                             asset managers

                                                                                          Banks will increase
                                                                         Banks will increase enforcementof
                                                                                           enforcement of
                                                                                                                  8%         23%              19%    12%                 38%
                                                                           repayment repayment terms and
                                                                                        terms and conditions
                                                                                              conditions
                                                                                      Strongly agree      Agree        Disagree      Strongly Disagree       Neutral         No response
                                                                                         Strongly agree         Agree              Disagree         Strongly disagree              Neutral




Original question – “Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.”

January 2012                        Page 20                  Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Which exit options will play a role?



Planned exit strategies
                                                                                                                      Key messages
                                                                                                                      ►    Mutual funds (46%) is the
                                                                                                                           preferred exit option
                                  46%
                    42%
                                                                                                                      ►    REOC/REIT (42%) and closed-
                                                                                                                           ended funds (35%) will also play a
                                                                  35%                                                      large role

                                                 27%
                                                                              23%




                                                                                             0%

                REOC/REIT  Mutual funds       IPO        Closed-end funds Trade sale       Other
                     REOC/REIT   Mutual funds     IPO      Closed-end funds   Trade Sale    Other




Original question – “What exit strategies do you have planned?”

January 2012                       Page 21                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Trend indicator
                    real estate assets investment
                                     Europe 2012




© euroluftbild.de



January 2012                Page 22    Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
January 2012   Page 23   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
The perceived attractiveness of property markets varies from country to
country.


Key Message                                                 Attractiveness (absolute)                                                    … compared to other locations
►   All countries were rated positively
                                     Germany                 1%              61%                            38%              Germany
                                                                                                                            Germany                    52%                          47%             1%

►   Economic stability makes Germany  Sweden                 4%                 64%                           32%             Sweden
                                                                                                                             Sweden         21%                     57%                     11% 7% 4%
    Sweden and Switzerland most
                                      Austria                4%4%                      71%                        21%          Austria
                                                                                                                             Austria      14%                 51%                 14%         21%
    attractive to investors who are active
    there                         Luxembourg                 4%7%                            82%                        7% Luxembourg
                                                                                                                           Luxembourg      18%                 54%                    7%      21%

►   Some other countries are viewed Russia                   4% 8%               53%                         35%
                                                                                                                             Russia
                                                                                                                               Russia      15%                 59%                      13%     13%
    with caution. Reasons include a lack
                                                                                                                           Switzerland                 50%                      38%            9% 3%
    of transaction opportunities at Swiss                    6% 9%              44%                        41%                   Swiss

    attractive prices and uncertainty Spain                    15%                     60%                       25%            Spain           28%                36%           9%          25% 2%
                                                                                                                             Spain
    regarding economic stability
                                                  Belgium    4%12%                       69%                        15%     Belgium
                                                                                                                              Belgium      15%               43%              15%            27%

                                                   Poland     11% 6%                   53%                     30%             Poland
                                                                                                                             Poland        19%                      64%                       13% 4%
                                                                                                                               The
                                              Netherlands    6% 14%                          68%                     12% Netherlands
                                                                                                                         Netherlands        22%                    48%                8%      22%

                                                   France    2% 21%                           65%                    12%        France
                                                                                                                             France       12%                 57%                  10%        21%

                                                      UK      15%     11%                     57%                  17%         UK UK             31%               30%              26%         13%

                                                            No responseattractive
                                                                  Very       Neutral    Attractive attractive attractive
                                                                                               Less     Less                     Neutral        No response
                                                                                                                                      Very attractive Attractive          Less attractive
                                                          Attractive        Very attractive                                   Neutral         No response
Original question – “How do you rate your attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012? And compared to other locations worldwide?”

January 2012                       Page 24                     Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Fear of inflation in the medium term is driving more investors toward
real estate …


Fear inflation will drive real estate investment                                                                                                      Key Message
                                          Swiss
                                     Switzerland                      35%                                     53%                           9% 3%     ►   In all countries surveyed, a majority
                                                                                                                                                          of respondents agree that concern
                                        Germany
                                       Germany                  24%                                    64%                                  12%
                                                                                                                                                          over inflation is fueling interest in
                                           France
                                           France                25%                           44%                            15%     4% 12%              real estate
                                           Belgium
                                          Belgium        8%                          61%                                       19%          12%       ►   The majority is particularly
                                                                                                                                                          overwhelming in Switzerland and
                                               UK
                                               UK        9%                           59%                                     15%    2% 15%
                                                                                                                                                          Germany (88 % in each)
                                           Russia
                                           Russia              20%                         46%                                22%          4% 8%

                                   Luxembourg
                                    Luxembourg                 21%                         43%                          18%           7%     11%

                                           Poland
                                           Poland          15%                        48%                             17%           7%      13%
                                            The
                                   Netherlands            8%                        53%                                  27%               4% 8%
                                    Netherlands

                                          Austria
                                          Austria        7%                     50%                                  25%            4%     14%

                                          Sweden
                                           Sweden        4%                  50%                                     32%                  7% 7%

                                            Spain
                                             Spain       9%                   43%                              26%                  11%     11%
          Strongly Agree          Agree                Disagree             Strongly Disagree                  Neutral                   No reponse
                                      Strongly agree          Agree      Disagree         Strongly disagree         Neutral         No response
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market.‟?”

January 2012                        Page 25                            Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and the Euro crisis is linked with a decline in real estate activity in the
European markets.


Key Message                                                   Perceptions of the Euro crisis
►   A majority in all countries surveyed                                                                Sweden
                                                                                                     Schweden                25%                                       61%                               14%
    associates the Euro crisis with a
                                                                                                           Polen
                                                                                                           Poland          17%                                  66%                                 11% 6%
    decline in real estate investment
    activity                                                                                            Spanien
                                                                                                          Spain                  26%                                   57%                         13% 2% 2%

►   In Switzerland, Germany and                                                                 Großbritannien
                                                                                                            UK               22%                                 57%                               13% 2% 6%
    Belgium, fear of inflation appears to
                                                                                                         France
                                                                                                     Frankreich                  29%                                   49%                        12% 8% 2%
    be overriding skepticism toward the
    Euro                                                                                                 Austria
                                                                                                     Österreich            14%                             61%                                    18%         7%

                                                                                                    Luxembourg
                                                                                                    Luxemburg                25%                              47%                          14%          7% 7%

                                                                                                           Russia
                                                                                                        Russland           15%                            56%                                 23%        2% 4%
                                                                                                            The
                                                                                                   Niederlande             14%                           57%                                      27%         2%
                                                                                                    Netherlands
                                                                                                         Belgium
                                                                                                         Belgien       12%                           53%                                 23%             12%

                                                                                                      Germany
                                                                                                   Deutschland             14%                    38%                              30%                  18%

                                                                                                     Switzerland
                                                                                                       Schweiz         12%                    38%                                  38%                   12%

                                                                        Strongly Agree          Agree             Disagree                Strongly Disagree                  Neutral               No reponse
                                                                                                          Strongly agree    Agree      Disagree    Strongly disagree     Neutral    No response

Original question: „Do you agree with the following statement: „The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in European real estate markets.‟?”

January 2012                        Page 26                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Some respondents anticipate increased lending by insurance companies
as a result of Solvency II …


Opinion of insurance companies as debt providers                                                                                                  Key Message
                                  Deutschland                                                                                                     ► Respondents in half the countries
                                     Germany                    31%                                       54%                           14% 1%
                                                                                                                                                    surveyed agree that insurance
                                          Belgien
                                          Belgium                           58%                                      23%               19%          companies will become more active
                                          The
                                  Niederlande          14%                       41%                         18%       2%             25%           as lenders as a result of Solvency II
                                   Netherlands
                                                                                                                                                  ► Agreement is strongest in Germany
                               Großbritannien
                                          UK           13%                       41%                         19%           6%          21%
                                                                                                                                                    (85%), while just over a third of
                                            Polen
                                           Poland     11%                       43%                             25%             4%      17%         respondents in Austria share this
                                                                                                                                                    view
                                      Schweiz
                                    Switzerland       9%                       44%                                    38%                    9%

                                       Spanien
                                         Spain             21%                       30%                  17%                    32%

                                        Russia
                                      Russland       10%                       39%                               37%                   4% 10%

                                     Schweden
                                       Sweden            18%                    29%                  18%         4%              31%

                                    Luxemburg
                                   Luxembourg            18%                    29%                       25%              7%          21%

                                        France
                                    Frankreich         13%                 29%                12%            19%

                                       Austria
                                    Österreich        11%                25%                  25%                               39%

          Strongly Agree          Agree             Disagree              Strongly Disagree                Neutral               No reponse
                                               Strongly agree    Agree    Disagree    Strongly disagree    Neutral    No response

Original question – “Do you agree: „Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly act as debt providers for real estate investments in the future.‟?”

January 2012                        Page 27                        Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and expectations of transaction volume in 2012 are generally
lukewarm.


Key Message                                                  Expectations of transaction volume
►   Germany and France are the only                                                              Deutschland
                                                                                                    Germany           8%                         48%                                       39%              4% 1%
    countries surveyed in which a
                                                                                                    Frankreich
                                                                                                        France                      33%                     21%                17%         6%          23%
    majority of respondents (56% and
    54%) expect higher transaction                                                                Luxembourg
                                                                                                  Luxemburg           11%                        42%                                29%             4%     14%
    volume in 2012 than in 2011
                                                                                                           Poland
                                                                                                           Polen       13%                      33%                           30%                   15%       9%
►   In most countries, respondents
                                                                                                   Switzerland
                                                                                                     Schweiz         3%               38%                                        47%                        12%
    anticipate a stable or declining
    volume of transactions                                                                                UK
                                                                                              Großbritannien         7%                   34%                          22%           11%              26%

                                                                                                        Spanien
                                                                                                          Spain      8%                   30%                     25%               11%               26%
                                                                                                           The
                                                                                                  Niederlande 6%
                                                                                                   Netherlands                       27%                     24%                 16%                 27%

                                                                                                      Russland
                                                                                                         Russia         12%           21%                              42%                      12%         13%

                                                                                                    Österreich
                                                                                                        Austria      7%             18%               25%               11%                     39%

                                                                                                    Schweden
                                                                                                      Sweden               21%                           40%                      7%                32%

                                                                                                        Belgien
                                                                                                        Belgium      4%     15%                                  54%                       4%          23%

                                                                        Strongly Agree          Agree               Disagree                Strongly Disagree                   Neutral               No reponse
                                                                                               Ich stimme zu   Ich stimme eher zu     Ich stimme eher nicht zu     Ich stimme nicht zu    Neutral     keine Angabe
Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Overall, the transaction volume will continue to recover in 2012 and exceed the level seen in 2011‟?”

January 2012                        Page 28                  Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Price trends for office property are expected to vary from country to
country and according to location …


Price trends office property                                                                                                                  Key Message
                                                                                                                                              ► In almost all countries surveyed,
                                                                                                                                                office property prices in prime (1a)
                                                                                                                                                locations are expected to remain
                                                                                            14             14
                                                                                                                                                stable or grow
                                                                                   SWE           39   39
                                                                                            47             47                                 ► Growth potential is especially evident

       20              22                                                                                                 8     18
                                                                                                                                                in those countries in which office
  NL   16    64
                  30
                                                                                                                  RUS   31 61   28   54         property had been under price
                    48


                       19                     15             18                                                                                 pressure
 BEL   23 35
                  43                    UK   26
                                                        39

                                                                                                                                              ► Prices in peripheral locations are
                                                   59        43
        42              38
                                                                                            25
        11                                                                          PL           47
                                                                                                      30 26
                                                                                                                                                largely viewed as stable; Germany
LUX    32    57
                  32 36
                                                                                            28             44
                   32                                                  8 27    19                                                               and Switzerland are the exceptions
                                                             GER      65      81



                                              15             8                              11             19
                                         F   25
                                                   60   46   46
                                                                                    AT      50
                                                                                                 39
                                                                                                      44
                                                                                                            37




                    12       30                                       24 18        15                                                             Legend
            SP    17               32                            CH
                      71      38                                       58     85                                                                      Prime Periphery
                                                                                                                                                                      19      Increasing       stable   decreasing
                                                                                                                                                            39   37
                                                                                                                                                       50
                                                                                                                                                            11        44   (percentage results) )

Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”
January 2012                                       Page 29                              Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… as are price trends for retail property ...



Key Message                                                            Price trends retail property
► In most countries, a majority of
  respondents expect prices for retail
  property in prime locations to remain
  stable or even climb
                                                                                                                                                          4        32 32
► Expectations of rising prices in top                                                                                                      SWE      53
                                                                                                                                                              43
                                                                                                                                                                    36
  locations are strongest in Germany
                                                                            24 20           27                                                                                     18 18   13 21
  and Luxembourg                                                       NL
                                                                                 56
                                                                                       44
                                                                                             29
                                                                                                                                                                             RUS    64     66


                                                                            19                                 17
                                                                      BEL         38   31 35              UK        33   42 30
                                                                            43          34                     50          28
                                                                                                                                                                   21
                                                                            14         22 22                                                    PL   30 42              35
                                                                      LUX   39
                                                                                  47                                                                  28           44
                                                                                            56                                      4        1
                                                                                                                           GER     49 47   57 42



                                                                                                               17        15                          12            26 30
                                                                                                           F        38        33
                                                                                                                                                AT   56
                                                                                                                                                              32
                                                                                                               45        52                                        44




   Legend                                                                              19 8       29 25                            12 6      18
                                                                             SP                                               CH
    Prime Periphery                                                                     73          46                              82     82

                     19      Increasing       stable     decreasing
           39   37
      50
           11        44   (percentage results) )

Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”
January 2012                                           Page 30        Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… and residential property…



Price trends residential property                                                                                                            Key Message
                                                                                                                                             ► Throughout Europe, residential
                                                                                                                                               property prices are robust in top
                                                                                                                                               locations
                                                                                            7
                                                                                                                                             ► This is expecially true in Germany,
                                                                                                     21 25
                                                                                  SWE      39 54
                                                                                                      54                                       Switzerland and Great Britain
       22
                                                                                                                                             ► Even in peripheral locations,
                  34 20                                                                                                17     18
  NL    35
             43
                   46
                                                                                                                RUS   31 52
                                                                                                                                   33
                                                                                                                                               residential real estate prices are
                                                                                                                              49

       20                                  15            14                                                                                    generally viewed as stable
 BEL         32   24 28
                                     UK   21 64     46
                                                          40
        48         48
                                                                                           28             22
       14         21 25                                                               PL        37   43
LUX    47
             39
                   54
                                                                                           35             35
                                                                        1         7
                                                                   24        27
                                                         GER            75        66


                                          14                                               18 36
                                                    38 25                                            33 30
                                      F   45
                                               41
                                                                                      AT
                                                         37                                46         37




                  25                                                    3         6                                                             Legend
         SP             45
                             37 40
                                                              CH   32
                                                                        65
                                                                             24
                  30          23                                              70                                                                    Prime Periphery
                                                                                                                                                                    19      Increasing       stable   decreasing
                                                                                                                                                          39   37
                                                                                                                                                     50
                                                                                                                                                          11        44   (percentage results) )

Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?”
January 2012                                   Page 31                                Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
… whereby the most active seller and buyer groups are identified as
follows:


Key Message                                                                      TOP seller groups                                                     TOP buyer groups
                                                                Residential RE Corp. (88 %),                                         RE Corp./REITs (81 %), Insurance Corp. (73 %),
► Throughout Europe, banks and                                                                                          Belgium
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (85 %), Banks (81 %)                                  Other intl. funds (73 %)
  property companies /REITs are                                 Open-ended funds (91 %),                                             Privat/Family Office (94 %), Insurance Corp. (92 %),
                                                                                                                       Germany
  expected to be among the most                                 Opportunity-/PE-Funds (89 %), Banks (88 %)                           Other intl. funds (89 %)
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (92 %), Banks (92 %),                                 Residential RE Corp. (85 %),
  active sellers in 2012                                        Residential RE Corp. (85 %)
                                                                                                                        France
                                                                                                                                     Open-ended funds (85 %), Banks (85 %)
► In a majority of the countries                                Banks (89 %), Opportunity-/PE-Funds (83 %),                          Residential RE Corp. (80 %),
                                                                                                                             UK
                                                                                                                                     Opportunity-/PE-Funds (79 %), Open-ended funds (78
  surveyed, residential real estate                             Residential RE Corp. (79 %)
                                                                                                                                     %)
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (88 %),                                               Residential RE Corp. (89 %),
  companies will become more active                             Residential RE Corp. (86 %), Banks (79 %)
                                                                                                                      Luxembourg
                                                                                                                                     Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %)
  as sellers                                                    RE Corp./REITs (88 %), Banks (84 %),                                 Residential RE Corp. (80 %),
                                                                                                                   The Netherlands
                                                                Residential RE Corp. (75 %)                                          Banks (74 %), RE Corp./REITs (73 %)
► On the buyer side, residential real
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (79 %),                                               Sovereign wealth funds (75 %),
  estate companies are expected to be                           Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (75 %)
                                                                                                                        Austria
                                                                                                                                     Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (64 %)
  most active in 2012                                           Banks (80 %), Residential RE Corp. (79 %),
                                                                                                                        Poland
                                                                                                                                     Banks (79 %), Residential RE Corp. (77 %),
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (78 %)                                                Open-ended funds (74 %)
                                                                RE Corp./REITs (87 %), Open-ended funds (86 %),                      Banks (85 %), Residential RE Corp. (83 %),
                                                                                                                        Russia
                                                                Opportunity-/PE-Funds (84 %)                                         RE Corp./REITs (83 %)
                                                                Open-ended funds (89 %), RE Corp./REITs (86 %),                      Residential RE Corp. (89 %),
                                                                                                                        Sweden
                                                                Residential RE Corp. (82 %)                                          Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %)
                                                                Opportunity-/PE-Funds (75 %),                                        Real estate funds (100 %),
                                                                                                                         Swiss
                                                                Corporates (Non-Property) (74 %), Banks (73 %)                       Privat/Family Office (97 %), Insurance Corp. (91 %)
                                                                Banks (91 %), RE Corp./REITs (81 %),                                 Residential RE Corp. (83 %),
                                                                                                                         Spain
                                                                Opportunity-/PE-Funds (77 %)                                         Banks (83 %), Open-ended funds (76 %)



Original question – “How active do you think the following seller/buyer groups will be in the real estate market in 2012?”
January 2012                        Page 32                   Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Investment focus on office property, in comparison with other uses, is
anticipated as follows:


Investment focus office property                                                                                            Key Message
                                                                                                                            ► Investors in countries where office
                                                                                                                              property prices are expected to rise
                                                                                                                              have office property at the top of
                                                                                                                              their shopping lists
                                                                              7
                                                                         14
                                                               SWE                32
                                                                                                                            ► Investors in France and Russia report
                                                                          47

       12
            8
                                                                                                       4 2
                                                                                                                              the strongest focus on office
  NL   29 51                                                                                    RUS   38   56                 property for 2012
         8                          11
       12 27                       9
BEL                          UK     40
                                       40
        53

        14
                                                            14 14                       15 28
LUX    11 36
                                                  GER      21             PL           17
        39                                                     51                         40




                                    12                                   14 21
                               F   31    57                         AT   21
                                                                              44




                      11                           22 17                                                                       Legend
                SP   9 38
                                              CH    61
                     42                                                                                                            14 21
                                                                                                                                              strong       moderate   low   no focus
                                                                                                                                21
                                                                                                                                     44
                                                                                                                                           (percentage results)



Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?”
January 2012                            Page 33                      Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012
Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012

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Belgium real estate trend indicator 2012

  • 1. Trend indicator Real Estate Assets Investment Belgium 2012
  • 2. Key findings for 2012 84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location. The capital and transaction markets are viewed with moderate optimism Prices in prime locations will stay stable Strongest seller groups: Residential real estate companies, real estate corporations/REITs and banks Strongest buyer groups: Real estate corporations/REITs Office properties will have the highest focus for investors Preferred regions: Brussels (offices), Leuven (retail) and Gent (residential) January 2012 Page 2 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 3. Agenda Trend Indicator real estate assets investment Belgium 2012 About the trend indicator 2012 Market outlook Belgium 2012 Investment strategy Belgium 2012 European outlook 2012 January 2012 Page 3 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 4. Trend indicator real estate assets investment Belgium 2012 © euroluftbild.de
  • 5. Our trend indicator covers a broad range of investor groups in Belgium… Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Investor groups ► Survey of about 25 companies and investors who have been active in the Belgian Real estate services firm (30%) property market in recent years Publicly listed company / REIT (14%) ► The survey looks at two topics: Institutional investor / Pension fund (12%) Other UK lending bank (8%) ► General assessment of the Belgian real estate investment market in 2012 by real estate investors Other debt provider (8%) Private property company (8%) ► Analysis of the strategy pursued by real estate investors in Belgium with respect to the development of the real estate market Open-ended fund (8%) Private equity / Opportunity / Hedge fund (4%) Other, please specify (8%) 1 Background 2 Aims 3 Method ► Ernst & Young Real Estate has conducted ► Assessment of the Belgian real estate ► The trend indicator is based on a survey this survey in Germany since 2006 and in investment market in the year to come. conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit in Switzerland since 2010. ► Outlook on the strategy which Belgian investors November and December 2011. ► This year it was extended to Belgium for will pursue in the coming year. ► The feedback of the interviews forms the results the first time. of the trend indicator. January 2012 Page 5 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 6. … the same survey was also executed in other European countries European trend indicator: real estate assets investment ► The survey includes for the first time 12 European countries ► All surveys took place in November and December 2011 ► Across these countries, we have gathered feedback from a total of 550 companies who are active on the real estate market Participating Countries ► Austria ► Luxembourg ► Spain ► Belgium ► Netherlands ► Sweden ► France ► Poland ► Switzerland ► Germany ► Russia ► United Kingdom January 2012 Page 6 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 7. 84% of the participants see Belgium as an attractive location in 2012 … Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments Key messages ► A clear majority (84%) views 69% Belgium as an attractive or very attractive real estate investment location in 2012 15% 12% 4% 0% Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Neutral No response Original question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012?” January 2012 Page 7 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 8. … particularly compared with other European countries Belgium’s attractiveness as a location for real estate investments Key messages compared to other countries ► The majority rated Belgium as attractive or very attractive 43% compared to other countries (58%) ► 27% of the participants are neutral 27% about the relative attractiveness of Belgium 15% 15% 0% Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Neutral No response Original question – “How do you rate Belgium‟s overall attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012 compared to other countries?” January 2012 Page 8 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 9. The capital markets in 2012 are viewed with moderate optimism … "Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive "Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market." investors towards the real estate market." 8% 61% 19% 12% ► High inflation will drive investors towards real estate (69%) "The "The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in 12% 53% 23% 12% European real estate markets." reduce activity in European real estate markets. “ ► Euro crisis will reduce activities in Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies “Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly the real estate market (65%) act as debt providers for real estate investments in for future.” could increasingly act as debt providers the real estate 58% 23% 19% investments in the future.” ► Insurance companies to increasingly "There will will be increased transaction activity a result of real "There be increased transaction activity in 2012, as in 2012, as act as debt providers (58%) estate assets of realto market out of restructuring market out of a result coming estate assets coming to of secured debt 8% 46% 23% 23% facilities." restructuring of secured debt facilities." ► Increase in transactions (54%) "Banks will reduce their exposure to commercial real commercial real "Banks will reduce their exposure to estate holdings over 12% 41% 35% 4% 8% ► Banks will reduce commercial real estate holdings over the next 12 months.” the next 12 months." estate holdings (53%) "The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less "The Basel III regulation will make real estate loans less attractive for banks attractive for banksrestraint inleadmortgage business." and will lead to greater and will the to greater restraint in 15% 31% 19% 8% 27% ► Restraints in mortgage availability the mortgage business." due to Basel III (46%) "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real estate sector in "There will be an increase in M&A activity in the real 2012." estate sector in 2012.” 8% 34% 27% 8% 23% ► Increase in M&A activities (42%) ► CMBS will revive in 2012 (38%) "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will "The commercial mortgage backed securities market will revive in 2012." 8% 30% 31% 4% 27% revive in 2012." ► IPOs and equity issuance will "Capital markets will become become morefor real estate IPOs and "Capital markets will more attractive attractive for real increase (36%) equity capital increases." 8% 28% 24% 8% 32% estate IPOs and equity capital increases." Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Ddsagree Neutral Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate financial/capital market in 2012 do you agree with?” January 2012 Page 9 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 10. … and the transaction market is expected to be also moderate in 2012 "‟Green‟ building standards will play a more important role ► Green building standards will play a in the real estate investment market in the future, alsomore "‟Green‟ building standards will play a with 38% 38% 12% 4% 8% respect to role in the in existing investment important investmentsreal estate real estate."… more important role in the future (76%) “There will be more more new project developments in “There will be new project developments in 2012.” 65% 19% 4% 12% 2012.” ► More project developments in 2012 (65%) “There will be more realfinancial investors will be more “International estate portfolio deals in 2012.” 8% 46% 23% 4% 19% attracted to the real estate market in 2012.” ► International financial investors “International financial investors will be more attracted “There will be more real estate portfolio deals in increasingly attracted (54%) to the 2012.” real estate market in 2012.” 12% 41% 8% 4% 35% ► More portfolio deals (53%) “On average, the size of the size of real estate deals will “On average, real estate deals will increase in 2012 compared to 2011.” 12% 38% 35% 15% ► Increased deal size (50%) increase in 2012 compared to 2011.” ► Increased transaction volume “Overall, the transaction volume volume will continue to “Overall, the transaction will continue to recover 4% 15% 54% 4% 23% compared to 2011 (19%) recover2012 and and exceed levellevel seen in … in in 2012 exceed the the seen in 2011.” Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral Original question – “Which of the following statements about the real estate transaction market in 2012 do you agree with?” January 2012 Page 10 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 11. Price trends will vary depending on location … Key messages Office Retail ► Prices for offices in prime locations 53% will increase (35%) or stay stable 43% (42%) 42% 43% 38% 38% 38% 35% 34% ► Retail in prime locations will 35% 35% 31% 31% 31% increase (38%) or stay stable (43%) 23% 19% 19% 12% Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Prime Secondary Periphery The figures on page 12,13,16,17,18,19 and 22 may not add up to 100% as the charts do not include cases of no response Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?” January 2012 Page 11 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 12. … and type of use Residential Hotel Key messages 60% ► The majority expects prices of residential properties to remain 48% 48% 48% 43% 43% stable in all locations 38% 40% 38% ► Many expect attractiveness of 32% 28% 28% hotel investments, especially in 24% prime locations to increase (43%), 20% 19% 19% other locations are considered to 12% 12% be stable Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Increasing Increasing Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Prime Secondary Periphery Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?” January 2012 Page 12 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 13. Who will be the most active seller groups in Belgium in 2012 … Seller groups Key messages Residential real estate real estate Residential companies 53% 35% 12% companies ► In addition to the residential real Real estate corporations/REITs 19% 66% 15% estate companies (88%), real Real estate corporations/REITs estate corporations/REITs (85%) Banks Banks 8% 73% 19% and banks (81%) will be the most active seller groups in 2012 Open-ended funds Open-ended Funds 27% 42% 31% ► Banks in surrounding countries in Public sector Public sector 12% 57% 31% top three sellers Insurance companies Insurance companies 19% 46% 35% ► Open-ended funds and public sector will be slightly less active Corporates (non-property) Corporates (Non-Property) 31% 34% 35% sellers groups Other international funds Other international Funds 12% 46% 42% ► Closed-ended funds and PE-funds are seen as the most moderate Opportunity-/PE-funds Opportunity-/PE-Funds 4% 54% 38% 4% seller groups Closed-ended funds Closed-end Funds 46% 54% Active Moderately Moderately active Active active Cautious No response response Cautious No Original question – “How active do you think the following seller groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?” January 2012 Page 13 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 14. … and who will be the buyers in Belgium? Key messages Buyer groups Real estate corporations/REITs 31% 50% 19% ► Real estate corporations/REITs Real estate corporations/REITs (81%) will be the most active Insurance companies Insurance companies 27% 46% 27% group of buyers ► All other types of buyers seem to Other international funds Other international funds 19% 54% 27% be equally active on the market Open-ended Funds Open-ended funds 19% 54% 27% ► Only opportunity/PE-Funds are expected to be less active Residential real estate Residential real estate 8% 61% 31% companies companies Banks Banks 12% 57% 31% Closed-end Funds Closed-end funds 34% 35% 31% Private/Family Office Private/Family office 19% 46% 35% Sovereign wealth funds 15% 50% 31% 4% Sovereign wealth funds Opportunity-/PE-Funds 12% 38% 46% 4% Opportunity-/PE-funds Active Moderately active Cautious No response Active Moderately active Cautious No response Original question – “How active do you think the following buyer groups will be in the Belgian real estate market in 2012?” January 2012 Page 14 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 15. The following use types will be popular … Strong or moderate investment focus Key messages ► Office properties will have the 53% 53% highest focus for investors (27%) 42% 43% ► Generally all use types will have a more moderate investment focus 31% 27% 19% 19% 8% 4% Strong Moderate Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?” January 2012 Page 15 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 16. … and not so popular with investors in 2012 Lower or no investment focus Key messages ► Logistic investments are in a low 42% investment focus 27% 23% 23% 19% 15% 12% 12% 12% 8% Low No focus Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Office Retail Residential Logistics Hotel Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?” January 2012 Page 16 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 17. Investors prefer Brussels and Antwerpen for office investments, for retail investments Leuven-Gent-Antwerp are more in the focus … Office and Retail focus Key messages ► Brussels (58%) and Antwerp (34%) will be the most attractive 58% locations for offices ► Retail investments are expected to be stronger in Leuven (30%), 34% 30% Antwerp (27%) and Gent (27%) 27% 27% 19% 15% 15% 12% 12% 12% 12% 8% 4% Office Retail Brussels Antwerp Brussel Gent Gent Antwerpen Leuven Leuven Namen Namen Luik Luik Kortrijk Kortrijk Original question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?” January 2012 Page 17 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 18. … residential investments are preferred in Flanders Residential and no focus Key messages ► For residential investments, investors prefer Flanders i.e. Gent 30% (30%) and Leuven (23%) 23% 19% 19% 19% 12% 12% 12% 10% 8% 8% 4% 4% 0% Residential Other Brussel Antwerpen Brussels Antwerpen Gent Gent Leuven Leuven Namen Namen Luik Luik Kortrijk Kortrijk Original question – “Which Top-City-Locations will you be focusing your investments on in 2012?” January 2012 Page 18 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 19. The greatest impediments to deal flow in 2012 will be… Impediments to deal flow Key messages ► The availability of senior debt Availability of senior Availability of senior debt debt funding funding 12% 60% 12% 4% 12% funds (72%) and availability of junior debt funding (50%) are the greatest impediments for deal Availability of junior Availability of junior debt debt funding funding 19% 31% 19% 8% 23% flows ► Price mismatch between buyers & Price mismatch sellers is an additional hurdle Price mismatch between between buyers and 8% 38% 23% 4% 27% buyers and sellers sellers (46%) ► Need for capital injection (42%) Level of capitalof Capital Level injection becomes important required 23% 19% 23% 12% 23% Injection required Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral Original question – “Do you agree or disagree that the following will be impediments to deal flow in 2012?” January 2012 Page 19 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 20. … and the following bank actions are expected for problem loans Bank actions to handle problem loans Key messages ► Extension of loan repayment Banks will extend loan Banks will extend loan repayment period 8% 57% 23% 8% 4% period is considered to be the repayment period most effective action to handle problem loans (65%) Banks will increase debt-for- Banks will increase debt- equity swaps 8% 50% 15% 8% 19% for-equity swaps ► Debt-for-equity swaps are increasing (58%) Banks will increase Banks will increase consensual consensual restructuring restructuring deals 19% 27% 31% 4% 19% deals Banks will increasingly Banks will increasingly replace 12% 23% 34% 31% replaceasset managers asset managers Banks will increase Banks will increase enforcementof enforcement of 8% 23% 19% 12% 38% repayment repayment terms and terms and conditions conditions Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No response Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral Original question – “Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements.” January 2012 Page 20 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 21. Which exit options will play a role? Planned exit strategies Key messages ► Mutual funds (46%) is the preferred exit option 46% 42% ► REOC/REIT (42%) and closed- ended funds (35%) will also play a 35% large role 27% 23% 0% REOC/REIT Mutual funds IPO Closed-end funds Trade sale Other REOC/REIT Mutual funds IPO Closed-end funds Trade Sale Other Original question – “What exit strategies do you have planned?” January 2012 Page 21 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 22. Trend indicator real estate assets investment Europe 2012 © euroluftbild.de January 2012 Page 22 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 23. January 2012 Page 23 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 24. The perceived attractiveness of property markets varies from country to country. Key Message Attractiveness (absolute) … compared to other locations ► All countries were rated positively Germany 1% 61% 38% Germany Germany 52% 47% 1% ► Economic stability makes Germany Sweden 4% 64% 32% Sweden Sweden 21% 57% 11% 7% 4% Sweden and Switzerland most Austria 4%4% 71% 21% Austria Austria 14% 51% 14% 21% attractive to investors who are active there Luxembourg 4%7% 82% 7% Luxembourg Luxembourg 18% 54% 7% 21% ► Some other countries are viewed Russia 4% 8% 53% 35% Russia Russia 15% 59% 13% 13% with caution. Reasons include a lack Switzerland 50% 38% 9% 3% of transaction opportunities at Swiss 6% 9% 44% 41% Swiss attractive prices and uncertainty Spain 15% 60% 25% Spain 28% 36% 9% 25% 2% Spain regarding economic stability Belgium 4%12% 69% 15% Belgium Belgium 15% 43% 15% 27% Poland 11% 6% 53% 30% Poland Poland 19% 64% 13% 4% The Netherlands 6% 14% 68% 12% Netherlands Netherlands 22% 48% 8% 22% France 2% 21% 65% 12% France France 12% 57% 10% 21% UK 15% 11% 57% 17% UK UK 31% 30% 26% 13% No responseattractive Very Neutral Attractive attractive attractive Less Less Neutral No response Very attractive Attractive Less attractive Attractive Very attractive Neutral No response Original question – “How do you rate your attractiveness as a location for real estate investments in 2012? And compared to other locations worldwide?” January 2012 Page 24 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 25. Fear of inflation in the medium term is driving more investors toward real estate … Fear inflation will drive real estate investment Key Message Swiss Switzerland 35% 53% 9% 3% ► In all countries surveyed, a majority of respondents agree that concern Germany Germany 24% 64% 12% over inflation is fueling interest in France France 25% 44% 15% 4% 12% real estate Belgium Belgium 8% 61% 19% 12% ► The majority is particularly overwhelming in Switzerland and UK UK 9% 59% 15% 2% 15% Germany (88 % in each) Russia Russia 20% 46% 22% 4% 8% Luxembourg Luxembourg 21% 43% 18% 7% 11% Poland Poland 15% 48% 17% 7% 13% The Netherlands 8% 53% 27% 4% 8% Netherlands Austria Austria 7% 50% 25% 4% 14% Sweden Sweden 4% 50% 32% 7% 7% Spain Spain 9% 43% 26% 11% 11% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Fears of high inflation in the medium term will drive investors towards the real estate market.‟?” January 2012 Page 25 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 26. … and the Euro crisis is linked with a decline in real estate activity in the European markets. Key Message Perceptions of the Euro crisis ► A majority in all countries surveyed Sweden Schweden 25% 61% 14% associates the Euro crisis with a Polen Poland 17% 66% 11% 6% decline in real estate investment activity Spanien Spain 26% 57% 13% 2% 2% ► In Switzerland, Germany and Großbritannien UK 22% 57% 13% 2% 6% Belgium, fear of inflation appears to France Frankreich 29% 49% 12% 8% 2% be overriding skepticism toward the Euro Austria Österreich 14% 61% 18% 7% Luxembourg Luxemburg 25% 47% 14% 7% 7% Russia Russland 15% 56% 23% 2% 4% The Niederlande 14% 57% 27% 2% Netherlands Belgium Belgien 12% 53% 23% 12% Germany Deutschland 14% 38% 30% 18% Switzerland Schweiz 12% 38% 38% 12% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Original question: „Do you agree with the following statement: „The euro-zone sovereign debt crisis will significantly reduce activity in European real estate markets.‟?” January 2012 Page 26 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 27. Some respondents anticipate increased lending by insurance companies as a result of Solvency II … Opinion of insurance companies as debt providers Key Message Deutschland ► Respondents in half the countries Germany 31% 54% 14% 1% surveyed agree that insurance Belgien Belgium 58% 23% 19% companies will become more active The Niederlande 14% 41% 18% 2% 25% as lenders as a result of Solvency II Netherlands ► Agreement is strongest in Germany Großbritannien UK 13% 41% 19% 6% 21% (85%), while just over a third of Polen Poland 11% 43% 25% 4% 17% respondents in Austria share this view Schweiz Switzerland 9% 44% 38% 9% Spanien Spain 21% 30% 17% 32% Russia Russland 10% 39% 37% 4% 10% Schweden Sweden 18% 29% 18% 4% 31% Luxemburg Luxembourg 18% 29% 25% 7% 21% France Frankreich 13% 29% 12% 19% Austria Österreich 11% 25% 25% 39% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Neutral No response Original question – “Do you agree: „Due to the Solvency II regulation, insurance companies could increasingly act as debt providers for real estate investments in the future.‟?” January 2012 Page 27 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 28. … and expectations of transaction volume in 2012 are generally lukewarm. Key Message Expectations of transaction volume ► Germany and France are the only Deutschland Germany 8% 48% 39% 4% 1% countries surveyed in which a Frankreich France 33% 21% 17% 6% 23% majority of respondents (56% and 54%) expect higher transaction Luxembourg Luxemburg 11% 42% 29% 4% 14% volume in 2012 than in 2011 Poland Polen 13% 33% 30% 15% 9% ► In most countries, respondents Switzerland Schweiz 3% 38% 47% 12% anticipate a stable or declining volume of transactions UK Großbritannien 7% 34% 22% 11% 26% Spanien Spain 8% 30% 25% 11% 26% The Niederlande 6% Netherlands 27% 24% 16% 27% Russland Russia 12% 21% 42% 12% 13% Österreich Austria 7% 18% 25% 11% 39% Schweden Sweden 21% 40% 7% 32% Belgien Belgium 4% 15% 54% 4% 23% Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree Neutral No reponse Ich stimme zu Ich stimme eher zu Ich stimme eher nicht zu Ich stimme nicht zu Neutral keine Angabe Original question – “Do you agree with the following statement: „Overall, the transaction volume will continue to recover in 2012 and exceed the level seen in 2011‟?” January 2012 Page 28 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 29. Price trends for office property are expected to vary from country to country and according to location … Price trends office property Key Message ► In almost all countries surveyed, office property prices in prime (1a) locations are expected to remain 14 14 stable or grow SWE 39 39 47 47 ► Growth potential is especially evident 20 22 8 18 in those countries in which office NL 16 64 30 RUS 31 61 28 54 property had been under price 48 19 15 18 pressure BEL 23 35 43 UK 26 39 ► Prices in peripheral locations are 59 43 42 38 25 11 PL 47 30 26 largely viewed as stable; Germany LUX 32 57 32 36 28 44 32 8 27 19 and Switzerland are the exceptions GER 65 81 15 8 11 19 F 25 60 46 46 AT 50 39 44 37 12 30 24 18 15 Legend SP 17 32 CH 71 38 58 85 Prime Periphery 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) ) Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?” January 2012 Page 29 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 30. … as are price trends for retail property ... Key Message Price trends retail property ► In most countries, a majority of respondents expect prices for retail property in prime locations to remain stable or even climb 4 32 32 ► Expectations of rising prices in top SWE 53 43 36 locations are strongest in Germany 24 20 27 18 18 13 21 and Luxembourg NL 56 44 29 RUS 64 66 19 17 BEL 38 31 35 UK 33 42 30 43 34 50 28 21 14 22 22 PL 30 42 35 LUX 39 47 28 44 56 4 1 GER 49 47 57 42 17 15 12 26 30 F 38 33 AT 56 32 45 52 44 Legend 19 8 29 25 12 6 18 SP CH Prime Periphery 73 46 82 82 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) ) Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?” January 2012 Page 30 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 31. … and residential property… Price trends residential property Key Message ► Throughout Europe, residential property prices are robust in top locations 7 ► This is expecially true in Germany, 21 25 SWE 39 54 54 Switzerland and Great Britain 22 ► Even in peripheral locations, 34 20 17 18 NL 35 43 46 RUS 31 52 33 residential real estate prices are 49 20 15 14 generally viewed as stable BEL 32 24 28 UK 21 64 46 40 48 48 28 22 14 21 25 PL 37 43 LUX 47 39 54 35 35 1 7 24 27 GER 75 66 14 18 36 38 25 33 30 F 45 41 AT 37 46 37 25 3 6 Legend SP 45 37 40 CH 32 65 24 30 23 70 Prime Periphery 19 Increasing stable decreasing 39 37 50 11 44 (percentage results) ) Original question – “How do you expect purchase prices to develop in 2012 based on the type of use and location?” January 2012 Page 31 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 32. … whereby the most active seller and buyer groups are identified as follows: Key Message TOP seller groups TOP buyer groups Residential RE Corp. (88 %), RE Corp./REITs (81 %), Insurance Corp. (73 %), ► Throughout Europe, banks and Belgium RE Corp./REITs (85 %), Banks (81 %) Other intl. funds (73 %) property companies /REITs are Open-ended funds (91 %), Privat/Family Office (94 %), Insurance Corp. (92 %), Germany expected to be among the most Opportunity-/PE-Funds (89 %), Banks (88 %) Other intl. funds (89 %) RE Corp./REITs (92 %), Banks (92 %), Residential RE Corp. (85 %), active sellers in 2012 Residential RE Corp. (85 %) France Open-ended funds (85 %), Banks (85 %) ► In a majority of the countries Banks (89 %), Opportunity-/PE-Funds (83 %), Residential RE Corp. (80 %), UK Opportunity-/PE-Funds (79 %), Open-ended funds (78 surveyed, residential real estate Residential RE Corp. (79 %) %) RE Corp./REITs (88 %), Residential RE Corp. (89 %), companies will become more active Residential RE Corp. (86 %), Banks (79 %) Luxembourg Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %) as sellers RE Corp./REITs (88 %), Banks (84 %), Residential RE Corp. (80 %), The Netherlands Residential RE Corp. (75 %) Banks (74 %), RE Corp./REITs (73 %) ► On the buyer side, residential real RE Corp./REITs (79 %), Sovereign wealth funds (75 %), estate companies are expected to be Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (75 %) Austria Open-ended funds (75 %), Banks (64 %) most active in 2012 Banks (80 %), Residential RE Corp. (79 %), Poland Banks (79 %), Residential RE Corp. (77 %), RE Corp./REITs (78 %) Open-ended funds (74 %) RE Corp./REITs (87 %), Open-ended funds (86 %), Banks (85 %), Residential RE Corp. (83 %), Russia Opportunity-/PE-Funds (84 %) RE Corp./REITs (83 %) Open-ended funds (89 %), RE Corp./REITs (86 %), Residential RE Corp. (89 %), Sweden Residential RE Corp. (82 %) Open-ended funds (82 %), Other intl. funds (80 %) Opportunity-/PE-Funds (75 %), Real estate funds (100 %), Swiss Corporates (Non-Property) (74 %), Banks (73 %) Privat/Family Office (97 %), Insurance Corp. (91 %) Banks (91 %), RE Corp./REITs (81 %), Residential RE Corp. (83 %), Spain Opportunity-/PE-Funds (77 %) Banks (83 %), Open-ended funds (76 %) Original question – “How active do you think the following seller/buyer groups will be in the real estate market in 2012?” January 2012 Page 32 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012
  • 33. Investment focus on office property, in comparison with other uses, is anticipated as follows: Investment focus office property Key Message ► Investors in countries where office property prices are expected to rise have office property at the top of their shopping lists 7 14 SWE 32 ► Investors in France and Russia report 47 12 8 4 2 the strongest focus on office NL 29 51 RUS 38 56 property for 2012 8 11 12 27 9 BEL UK 40 40 53 14 14 14 15 28 LUX 11 36 GER 21 PL 17 39 51 40 12 14 21 F 31 57 AT 21 44 11 22 17 Legend SP 9 38 CH 61 42 14 21 strong moderate low no focus 21 44 (percentage results) Original question – “Compared to 2011, what kind of focus do you intend to give to the following real estate use types in your investment strategy for 2012?” January 2012 Page 33 Trend indicator: real estate assets investment Belgium 2012