Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
1. Extreme phenomena – Floods International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management
Extreme phenomena – Floods
in transboundary rivers
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Advisor
MENBO
Mediterranean Networl of Basin Organizations
2. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
The annual cost to the world economy, of
flooding and other water-related disasters, is
between US$ 50 and US$ 60 billion
The 2002 floods in Europe claimed 100 lives and
caused US$ 20 billion in damage.
3. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
In Asia, between 1987 and 1997, floods claimed an
..but average of 22,800 lives per annum and caused an
estimated US$ 136 billion in economic damage
-Floods accounted for half of the total disasters,
-water-borne and vector disease outbreaks accounted
for 28% and
-drought accounted for 11% of the total disasters.
It is estimated that one billion
people, one sixth of the global
population -the majority of them
among the world's poorest
inhabitants -live on flood plains
today
4. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Transboudnary river basins
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
5. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Transboudnary river basins
Main flooding areas
SEE Countries
Danube basin
Adraitic and Aegean basins
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
6. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Transboudnary river basins
Main flooding areas
Worldwide shared basins mean 48% of After land
ICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
7. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
>400.000 direct casualties
XX Century
Indirect: related diseases, plagues,
direct deaths
1931 – 145,000
economic losses, poverty..
1935 – 142,000
1954 – 30,000
Yangtse River
-206 a.c. Today
Han Dinasty
Every 10 years
216 floods
8. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Due to heavy storms or
prolongated seasonal rains
9. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Lake
Sarez
Tadzhikistan
.. but also caused by
GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS
10. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared
By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
10
11. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
How to fight against floods?
MODIFYING NATURE
Flood control dams as more
friendly alternatives
Even some dams supported
by green NGO’s
12. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s
Structural measures
13. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Past mistakes- lessons for the future
14. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Lesson learnt: Multipurpose projects. Sustainable
operation
15. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION
(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE
FUNCTION)
F 1
NATURAL REGIME
RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS
0
Q
16. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
EFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION IMPOSED
(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCE
FUNCTION)
F 1
NATURAL REGIME
RISK REDUCTION DUE TO
CATASTROPHIC FLOODS
FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS
REMAIN PROBABLE
BE AWARE OF INDUCED FALSE SAFETY
0
Q
17. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s 90’s
Structural measures Non structural measures
Just management
18. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Will we be able to face requiered flood
mitigation challenges without phisical actions?
19. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
<80-90’s 90’s Late 90’s and XXIst cent
Structural measures Non structural measures Both plus proactive strategies
Just management
20. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
•Induced false safety
•Growth of vulnerability
The increasing pressure of urban and industrial
development on metropolitan areas means a growth
in the value of settled capital.
Investments on protection measures, structural or not,
has to be based on a concept of sustainability, so that
the creation of infrastructures do not generate an
Bco. la Saleta. 26/10/00
acceleration of the vulnerability of the territory.
WOULD BE IT IS POSSIBLE?
Non structural measures::
Incentives to leave flood plains,
Land use management
Appropriate warning systems,
Emergency plans
Insurance policies, etc
21. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
GOVERNANCE?
Amongst the 200 International
river basins worldwide, 55 are
situated in Africa, where 80% of
water resources are shared
By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso)
21
24. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Impacts of Climate Change on floods
Precipitation amount,
Air temperature
timing and type
Runoff timing and Sea level rise
quantity
25. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Are we able to assess really high return period floods?
Extrapolation con present statistics
Raingauge = RAFELCOFER.
SQRT GUMBEL GEV TCEV
T=500
T=100
T=50
Uncertainty!!
T=10
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL
26. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Effects of climate change
Sensitivity analysis. Just modifying the temperature of sea water
it’s possible to estimate a new distribution function of probabilities
and new expected risks.
1 00 000
10.000
Precipitation Peak flow of
10 000
of the storm the flood
Periodo de retorno (años)
1.000
Pe rio d o d e reto rn o
1 000
100
100
Dp Referencia
10
10 Dp +3ºC
Dp Ref e renc ia
Dp +3 º C
1 Probability of catastrophic 1
0 20 0 4 00 600 8 00 100 0
floods would be 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
P r e c ip itac ió n m e dia Caudal punta (m 3/seg)
considerabily increased
Climate change
27. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Conclusions… may be just comments
Risk 0 never will be reached by
humankind
Negotiate with nature. Don’t forget
the fable of “Tang and the Tree”
River cannot be divided by
reaches. Floods cross borders
without visa
Regarding climate change,
remember “precaution principle”
Valencia, 1957
28. International Roundtable on
Transboundary Waters Management MENBO
Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
Thank you for your attention
Dr. Enrique Cifres
Advisor
Mediterranean Network of Basin Organizartions