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Brewers need malt, but do they need maltsters?
1. Strictly confidential 1NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
NeoFocus white paper
The future of the malting industry:
Brewers need malt, but do they need maltsters?
Paris, 09th September 2013
2. Strictly confidential
Disclaimer
2NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
This document is specifically intended for NeoFocus. Under no circumstances whatsoever this document, or any part of this document, should be communicated
to third parties or copied without the prior consent of NeoFocus.
The concepts and tools presented in this document are derived from our expertise and are proprietary to NeoFocus. We require our clients to commit to keep
them strictly confidential. The acceptance of this document is an explicit commitment to maintain such level of confidentiality.
The examples and data presented in this document are from public sources, interviews, or strictly illustrative. Although they have been collected with all the
necessary professional care, they represent the best of our knowledge: in particular NeoFocus does not guarantee the accuracy or exhaustiveness of its
estimates.
The actions and deliverables presented should be adapted to the specificities of each project. This document is intended as a support for presentation and should
not be used without the corresponding oral comments.
3. Strictly confidential
Agenda Page
1. Key questions the leading maltsters must address 3
2. NeoFocus Overview 13
3NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
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NeoFocus has found that leading maltsters are confronted with six central questions which
they must address to successfully compete in the sector going forward
4NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to
1. How do we get ourselves ready for future beer
industry consolidation?
2. Should we participate in malting industry
consolidation?
3. How can we secure raw material supplies? And can
we secure extra margin through increased
involvement in origination?
4. Which competitive advantages and profitable growth
drivers can we leverage in mature markets?
5. In emerging markets, where should we export – and
where should we build local plants?
6. How will we fix underperforming assets?
5. Strictly confidential
Key question #1: How do we get ourselves ready for future beer industry consolidation?
5NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #1 of 6
Source: Barth Report, Annual Reports, NeoFocus analysis
• What are our relationships with leading brewing
groups? What are our key assets in these
relationships?
• To what extent can some of our largest
customers further centralize procurement and
unify terms and conditions?
• What would be our exposure to a mega-merger,
e.g. AB InBev + SabMiller, which is heavily
rumored in the industry (again…) and would
represent a combined 35% market share?
• Are our customers asking for larger capacity
plants to guarantee consistency and quality of
supply, even in emerging markets?
• What would be our financial risk if one of our
large regional customers was to be acquired by
a larger brewing group? Do we have a plan to
mitigate that risk?
Industry trend: brewer consolidation Key questions
2008 2014
In 2008 the top 4 brewers accounted for 42% of global beer industry
volumes
By 2014 the same 4 brewers grew through consolidation to account for
~52% of global beer industry volumes(1), and are continuously on the
lookout for acquisition opportunities, particularly in emerging markets
What will the brewing industry look like by 2018?
Note (1) 2012 volume estimates for top 4 brewers assume most recent wave of consolidation is approved by regulators, including ABI acquisition of remaining share of Modelo, Heineken acquisition
of APB, etc.
% of industry volumes
AB-InBev
SABMiller
Heineken
Carlsberg
Others
AB-InBev
SABMiller
Heineken
Carlsberg
Others
2018
42% 52%
?
6. Strictly confidential
Key question #2: Should we participate in malting industry consolidation?
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Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #2 of 6
Source: Rahr Malting Report, Annual Reports, NeoFocus analysis
• What is our strategic rationale for participation?
• How: as an acquirer or as a target?
• Are there potential acquisition or partnership
targets we should be exploring?
• Do we wish to join a larger maltster? How do we
negotiate our role in the consolidated entity?
• What would be the value of our business, as a
whole or in parts, for some of our current
competitors?
• Do we need scale for better negotiating leverage
with brewers?
• Would scale enable us to rationalize capacity in
multiple plants?
• Would increased geographic presence help us
spread risks in the event of a barley shortfall?
• Would increased consolidation provide us with
additional risk mitigation?
Industry trend: maltster consolidation Key questions
2008
In 2008 the top 6 maltsters accounted for 38% of global malting volumes
By 2012(1) the top 6 maltsters accounted for 49% of global malting
volumes, still considerably behind the consolidation of the top 4
global brewers
What will the malting industry look like by 2018?
“I think within 5-10 years you will see consolidation within the malting
industry that starts to mirror the level of consolidation of the brewers.
In my opinion this evolution is inevitable and is essentially driven by
the brewers as they have really taken the upper hand in purchasing
behavior.” Malt industry executive
Malteurop
Soufflet
Cargill
UMH
Supertime
Boortmalt
Others
% of industry volumes
2018
?
38%
2014
51%
7. Strictly confidential
Key question #3: How can we secure raw material supplies? And can we secure extra
margin through increased involvement in origination?
7NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #3 of 6
Source: Industry reports, industry interviews, NeoFocus analysis
• Price and volume volatility, especially as barley
becomes more of a niche crop in many
geographies
• Shifts in traditional barley production areas; new
barley production areas
• Potential for “out of location” malting plants
relative to barley growing regions – inbound
barley logistics flow issues
• Increased integration with grain companies for a
secure source of supply
• Direct procurement organizations within malting
companies – direct relationships with growers
• New contract practices (contract crops)
• Move towards new sources of starch, using local
crops (cassava, sorghum, …); substitution risk
for barley
• Move towards “new beers” using cocktails of
barley and enzymes
Industry trend: raw material supplies Key questions
“Barley is becoming more and more of a specialty crop, and I can see
the day when it is not at all treated like a commodity, but is purely a
contract crop.” Malt industry executive
“The substitution risk is increasing: malt substitution in beer is more
likely in countries with less “beer culture”, and these are precisely the
fastest growing countries where brewers therefore install most of their
new capacity.” Commercial director, malting company
CAGR
-3,4%
Barley areas (000 ha), by select region
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Key question #4: Which competitive advantages and profitable growth drivers can we
leverage in mature markets?
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Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #4 of 6
Source: Company information, industry interviews, NeoFocus analysis
• Competitive advantage in origination?
• Lower total costs (including logistics)?
• High regional market share?
• Position in specialty malts?
• Unique selling proposition for craft brewers?
• Unique selling proposition for distillers?
• Others?
Industry trend: competitive advantage Key questions
“The largest malting companies, especially the likes of Malteurop,
Soufflet and GrainCorp, have developed their own in-house barley
procurement. And for the ones that are part of a larger cooperative or
grain company, they are advantaged by the benefits from the
relationships upstream.” Grain trader
Soufflet:
Operates highly competitive, export-focused
malting facility at Nogent-sur-Seine, with
advantaged outbound logistics due to barge
access on the Seine
Owns majority of malting capacity in Central
and Eastern Europe
Rahr Malting:
Brewer’s Supply Group sells Rahr specialty
malts as well as malts from other small,
specialty maltsters, such as Weyermann,
Schill, Gambrinus, Castle, Crisp to the fast-
growing craft and micro brewing segments,
commanding much higher margins
9. Strictly confidential
Key question #5: In emerging markets, where should we export and where should we build
local plants?
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Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #5 of 6
Source: Annual Reports, press releases, industry interviews, NeoFocus analysis
• Partner with brewers to build new capacity to
attend growing needs in developing markets?
• Develop competitive export base to effectively
meet growing demand?
• Malting barley vs. malt changing international
trade patterns?
Industry trend: serving emerging markets Key questions
“With the construction of the new malting plant in Passo Fundo, [AmBev] is
introducing a new business model, which consists of taking the industry to the
fields, contrary to the past model, when the malting house was receiving
imported raw material and operated close to the brewery”
Marcelo Otto, Agro-industrial Director, AmBev, Dec 28, 2011
SABMiller local initiatives in Africa
New AmBev malting plant in Passo Fundo, RS
“Malt, at least in Africa, is one of a
brewer’s biggest expenses, so we
are definitely going into malting in
order to better understand it,
manage costs, control quality,
etc. Brewers are making deals with
the African governments in order to
reduce excise rates on beer in
exchange for promoting local
barley industry.” Plant manager,
global brewing group
10. Strictly confidential
Key question #6: How will we fix underperforming assets?
10NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Questions that leading maltsters should have an answer to: #6 of 6
Source: Industry reports, industry interviews, NeoFocus analysis
• How do we improve our underperforming assets:
̶ Rationalization?
̶ Idling?
̶ New investment?
̶ Other?
• How do we deal with underperforming assets of
our competitors (which are pushing down
prices…)?
Industry trend: underperforming assets Key questions
“2 000kt [of excess capacity beyond Russia &
China] are still “floating around”, pushing prices
down and making it difficult for maltsters to
be sufficiently profitable… Smaller and mid-
sized maltsters are not closing as fast as
expected and this is pushing prices down.”
Barley / malt trader
Capacity utilization 2011
Graphite electrode cost curve
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
MaltPlant1
MaltPlant2
MaltPlant3
MaltPlant4
MaltPlant5
MaltPlant6
MaltPlant7
MaltPlant8
MaltPlant9
MaltPlant10
MaltPlant11
MaltPlant12
MaltPlant13
MaltPlant14
MaltPlant15
MaltPlant16
MaltPlant17
MaltPlant18
MaltPlant19
MaltPlant20
MaltPlant22
MaltPlant23
MaltPlant24
MaltPlant25
MaltPlant26
MaltPlant21
100
75
50
25
($ / t) Malt production cost curve
Illustrative
100%
104%
99%
97%
91%
88% 87% 88%
90%
91%
92%
95%
100%
91%
87%
79%
78% 77% 78% 79% 80% 80%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Excluding China
World
11. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus has conducted projects along the entire value chain and across multiple
categories in the agribusiness and food & beverage sectors
11NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Project examples
Types of projects across the industry value chain
Grain Companies
Supply
Brewers
Production
Maltsters
Processing
Industry Value Chain
• Strategy formulation
• Competitive analysis
• Market entry
• Internationalization
• Portfolio optimization
• Target screening
• Strategic due diligence
• JV/Partner review
• Capabilities assessment
• Operations benchmarking
• Logistics optimization
12. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus specifically has significant project experience supporting organic or external
growth in the malting sector
12NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
Selected malting sector project examples
Define sustainable, profitable external
growth strategy in malting sector
Client assignment ResultNeoFocus assistance
• Business model evaluation
• Strategic Business Plan design
• Development scenarios validated and
quantified
• Target screening and ranking by accessibility
• Integrated Business Plan into long
term planning
• Pursued acquisition scenario
Perform strategic due diligence of ADM
Malting assets
• Market environment analysis
• Business Plan validation
• Synergy calculations
• Integration planning
• Pursued target successfully
• Moved profitably from #3 to #1
industry position
Perform strategic due diligence of UMH
malting assets
• Market environment analysis
• Business Plan validation
• Synergy calculations
• Presented bid for a discrete portion of
the assets as price for entire portfolio
viewed to be untenable
Conduct external due diligence of Joe
White Malting assets
• Market environment analysis
• Competitive assessment
• Operational assessment
• Strategy / SWOT analysis
• Factored findings into long term
planning
• Received Board approval to pursue
acquisition
Review value chain from upstream
(grain) through malting to downstream
(brewing) for competitive landscape and
market dynamics
• Competitive assessment
• Market dynamics analysis
• Capabilities assessment
• Utilized findings to inform long term
planning
• Developed strategic scenarios to
address malting industry’s
competitive dynamics
13. Strictly confidential
Agenda Page
1. Key questions the leading maltsters must address 3
2. NeoFocus Overview 13
13NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
14. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus assists its clients in all aspects of their growth initiatives: we provide professional
services to imagine, design, execute and protect their successful development
14NeoFocus Corporate Presentation – XXXX - 20150909
Our practices
Strategy
Organic growth
External growth
Profitability growth
Portfolio management
Corporate
finance
M&A
Joint ventures
Partnerships
Restructuring
Innovation
Business Booster
Training
Client experience
15. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus is organized to provide professional services to support our customers’ growth
initiatives
15NeoFocus Corporate Presentation – XXXX - 20150909
Our professional practices
Organic
growth
External
growth
Portfolio
management
Profitability
expansion
Sustainable and profitable growth
Strategy practice
.
• Strategic Advisory
• Strategic Consulting
• Strategic Training
Innovation practice .
• Business Booster
• Training
• Client experience
Our customers’
growth projects
Our assistance
Corporate finance
practice
• M&A
• Joint Ventures
• Restructuring
Local teams Experts
16. Strictly confidential
Our international network allows us to conduct worldwide projects with integrated local
teams
16NeoFocus Corporate Presentation – XXXX - 20150909
New York
Paris
New Delhi
Tokyo
Shanghai
Chennai
São Paulo
Geneva
Our international network of local professionals
Team Language Fluency:
French English
German Spanish
Italian Portuguese
Hindi Tamil
Mandarin Japanese
Cantonese Russian
Team Business Experience:
North America China
Western Europe India
Russia South Africa
Brazil Argentina
Australia SE Asia
Japan
Inside access
to international markets
17. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus has a strong international reach that is reinforced by local market experts as well
as a large network of industry experts with considerable strategy consulting experience
17NeoFocus Corporate Presentation – XXXX - 20150909
Our differentiation
• Sectorial expertise
• Strategy and specialized practices
• Senior, highly experienced consultants
• Partners are directly involved in each assignment
• Local teams in each country
• Over 250 customers and 850 projects over 10 years
• Structured, proven proprietary methodologies
• guaranteed quality levels
• can be passed on to client teams via training
• Wide networks of experts (sectorial or functional
expertise)
Expertise Unbiased recommendations
• NeoFocus is an independent group, 100% owned by its
founders
• We provide our services with complete objectivity, and
make our recommendations with freedom and in the
sole interest of our customers
• We deliver fact-based, unbiased opinions to address
our customers’ issues
• We provide recommendations to the best of our
professional expertise
• We develop long term, trust-based relationships with
our customers
• We ensure confidentiality & discretion
18. Strictly confidential
Our customers’ growth initiatives benefit from NeoFocus’ assistance: results achieved are
improved, and costs and risks incurred are reduced
18NeoFocus Corporate Presentation – XXXX - 20150909
Some benefits of NeoFocus’ assistance
• Improved transparency
• Improved predictability
• Proven NeoFocus
methodologies
• Better growth projects
• Better execution of growth
projects
• Increased understanding and
support from the organization
• Improved competitive
advantage
• Better understanding of the
environment
• Better risk contingency
planning
• Transfer of successful ideas
from other sectors
• Better allocation of existing
resources
• Improved transparency
More growth
Less risks
More predictability More sustainability
Less uncertainty Less waste of resources
19. Strictly confidential
NeoFocus relies on an international network of experienced local teams to deal with local
research and analyses – Illustration: France
19NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
France
Jérôme Kelber
Managing Partner
Paris / France
Jerome Kelber has over 15 years of consulting experience in
Europe, the US, Brazil and North Africa. He has extensive
industry knowledge in a broad range of industrial sectors, including
agribusiness, mining, materials, aerospace and defense, electronics, clean
techs and biotech, but also service industries, such as IT, B-to-B services,
telecom, specialized retail and private equity.
Jerome Kelber has advised multiple leading European corporations on
organic growth strategies, new business development, international
expansion, M&A operations and post-merger integration.
Prior to setting up his own practice, Jerome Kelber was a senior project
manager at Roland Berger & Partners, a global management strategy
consultancy.
Prior to working in strategy consulting, Jerome Kelber acquired extensive
M&A experience for over 6 years with Morgan Stanley and Calyon, mainly
in cross-border M&A transactions. He also developed a strong experience
in innovation and high‐tech engineering consulting, with global leader in
R&D outsourcing Altran, mainly in the telecom network operators.
Jerome Kelber graduated from Ecole Centrale de Paris (Engineering and
Economics) and holds a master in Economics & Finance from University of
Paris I La Sorbonne.
Jerome Kelber has been a private pilot since 2001 and holds an instrument
rating (IR-ME) since 2011.
20. Strictly confidential 20NeoFocus - Future of the malting industry – 20130909
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