Contenu connexe Similaire à The New Incumbents: Anti-trust in the Digital Economy (20) The New Incumbents: Anti-trust in the Digital Economy1. THE NEW INCUMBENTS
Anti-trust in the digital economy
Camille Mendler
Principal Analyst
Informa Telecoms & Media
June 2012
www.informatandm.com The New Incumbents: June 2012 @cmendler
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2. 2012: A year
of anniversaries 100th Anniversary
Sinking of the Titanic
200th Anniversary
Birth of
Charles Dickens
60th Anniversary
Queen Elizabeth II’s
coronation
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3. Here’s one
that’s been
forgotten 30th Anniversary
Modification of Final Judgment
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4. A landmark
anti-trust
settlement
Leads to break up of
The Bell System
By 1984, seven RBOCs arise
Picture: Flickr/Hiddenpower
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5. Then, AT&T’s
incumbency
was deemed
harmful AT&T’s
vertically
integrated
organization
had
stifled competition
(notably in long-distance communications and telecom equipment)
Picture: Flickr/Jenkinslawlibrary
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6. Now, anti-trust
focuses elsewhere
“Accumulating data about you
isn't just a strange hobby
for these corporations.
It's their whole business model.
And you are not their client.
You are their product.”
U.S. Senator Al Franken
Speech to the American Bar Association
March 29, 2012
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7. While
telcos decide
what’s core Brands
Spectrum O&M
R&D Wholesale
Cloud
Billing
Streamlining
activities Over
Analytics the Top
Verticals Payments
Access M2M
Customers
Picture: Flickr/roger.karlsson
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8. Non-telcos
are collecting
digital assets
(in 1982)
World’s largest World leader World leader
private company telecom equipment digital search
Let’s compare ‘incumbents’ past – and present Picture: Flickr/dsearls
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9. Innovation
arsenals
1982
Patents 20,000 30,000 24,500
Owned Bell Labs Ericsson Labs via Motorola Mobility
(now Alcatel-Lucent) and acquisitions alone
asset
Related Software
asset
and services
No
asset World’s 5th largest Examples: Google search,
software company; Android, BigQuery, Chrome,
Inventions include owns AT&T spinoff Google+, GoogleApps,
UNIX, C++ Telcordia Google Talk
Hardware
Western Electric World’s largest World’s 4th largest
equipment division mobile network equipment server manufacturer
vendor
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10. Network
infrastructure
U.S
1982 white space
Spectrum spectrum
database
administrators
(approval pending)
Builds, operates
mobile networks
Owned Fiber
asset
Developed Builds, operates Metro, long-distance,
Related optical laser fiber networks sub-sea fiber assets
asset
No
Wi-Fi
asset
Bought Wi-Fi Metro Wi-Fi networks
vendor BelAir in U.S. and Nairobi, Kenya
Technicolor
Satellite Broadcast
services
division
World’s 1st comms Satellite backhaul O3b satellite system
satellite, Telstar 1 services (launching 2013)
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11. Consumption
enablers
1982
Devices
Western Electric, LG-Ericsson, Motorola Mobility
American Bell ST-Ericsson, M2M
Device Connection
Platform
Owned
asset Content
Related
Examples : YouTube,
asset Content distribution Google TV, Google Earth,
services with Akamai Google Play, StreetView
No
asset Advertising
Admarket platform AdWords, AdSense
Payment
$ IPX multimedia
brokering & Ericsson
Wallet payment system
Google Wallet
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12. Less
is now
more
1982
Employees
104,525 32,467
1,040,000
Revenue
per employee
*adjusted for inflation $156,538* $278,210 $1,167,339
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13. Who’s most
successful?
1982*
Revenue $162.8 $30.2 $37.9
billion billion billion
Market cap $131 $27.5 $192
billion billion billion
ROIC 10% 9.8% 18.8%
*adjusted for inflation
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14. World population
touched
12.8% 14.3%
2.6%*
* in 1982
108 million 900 million 1 billion
subscribers via managed networks unique visitors per month
(also 4 million enterprises on GoogleApps)
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15. In 1982, AT&T
won a sweetener
to break up The Personal Computer
‘Man’ of Year for 1982
A move into computers*
A new age of
Personal Communication
was dawning
* It failed.
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16. Now, personal
communication
is the anti-trust
issue
European Union Argentina
Search, Search,
advertising advertising
United States South Korea
Search, Search,
StreetView Android
Wi-Fi ‘slurping’
India UK
Online StreetView
advertising Wi-Fi ‘slurping’
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17. Vertical
integration
isn’t evil
The world’s
What matters most valuable
is how company
has a
it’s managed controlled
ecosystem
It’s also fighting
an anti-trust lawsuit
alleging price fixing
of e-books Picture: Flickr/Leo Reynolds
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18. The digital economy
is expanding
As machines join the ‘conversation’
New
privacy
challenges
in a post-PC world
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19. Different
tastes
are evident Telcos become
more virtual
Digital
content
Bon
appétit!
Device makers
Personal offer virtual goods
devices
Internet firms
become Network
infrastructure
more physical
Picture: Flickr/free range jace
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20. Can
regulators 1. Need for velocity
keep up? 33 years to settle the AT&T-DoJ suit;
11 years for Microsoft-EU suit
2. Wider scope
Diversity of virtual assets (eg: new gTLDs)
Today’s
anti-trust 3. Defining abuse
challenges Unaligned policies (eg: EU vs US)
4. Who to protect
Consumers and/or competitive firms
2012 will be as important
for anti-trust as 1982
Picture: Flickr/dgray_xplane
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21. Market
observations
• Value creation
Concentrated in social, mobile & virtual assets
• Value enablers
Physical assets remain critical
• Regulatory bias?
Virtual asset focus for Internet firms
Physical asset focus for telcos & hardware firms
• Stakeholder roles
Blurring in a multi channel, multi platform world
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22. Contact
Camille Mendler
Principal Analyst, Informa Telecoms & Media
camille.mendler@informa.com
+44 7766 13 15 28
Twitter: @cmendler
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