Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McIntosh
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Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate - Peter McIntosh
- 1. Practical management of climate variability in a changing climate Peter McIntosh, Senthold Asseng, Dean Thomas, Guomin Wang and Nirav Khimashia
- 3. Nyabing
- 5. The importance of good years 80% of income in 40% of years
- 7. How much N (nitrogen fertiliser) to add? Nyabing, clay soil, 1980-2006 $2 per $1 N $1 per $1 N All years Maximize GM
- 8. Why be risk averse? 3 bad years in a row can lose the farm 1 really bad year can compromise the next 2-3
- 9. Number of years to be 95% sure of breaking even 3 years 6 years
- 10. Above median Below median Nyabing, clay soil, 1980-2006 What if we had a rainfall forecast? All years $2 per $1 N
- 11. Potential value of a forecast Gain $59 by not fertilising in bad years (max GM only) Gain $212 (risk averse) or $134 (max GM) by fertilising in good years Risk averse strategy has more to gain from a forecast risk averse gain $255K max GM gain $117K 80 / 0 60 / 0 77 / 77 0 / 0 N (kg/ha) above/below 527,500 410 / 27 211 Correct 2 category (maximise GM) 490,000 378 / 27 196 Correct 2 category (risk averse) 410,000 376 / -32 164 Climatology (maximise GM) 235,000 166 / 27 94 Climatology (risk averse) Farm Income ($/2500ha) GM ($/ha) above/below ave Strategy
- 13. Forecast skill r=0.32 at Nyabing (significant at 90% but not 95%) 70% at Nyabing (significant at 95%) correlation (r) two-category hit rate
- 14. Use POAMA forecast to determine N Wrong forecast Below median With POAMA forecast Risk averse strategy
- 15. risk averse gain $167K max GM gain $10K 420,000 335 / 13 168 80 / 0 POAMA 2 category (maximise GM) 402,500 313 / 20 161 60 / 0 POAMA 2 category (risk averse) 80 / 0 60 / 0 77 / 77 0 / 0 N (kg/ha) above/below 527,500 410 / 27 211 Correct 2 category (maximise GM) 490,000 378 / 27 196 Correct 2 category (risk averse) 410,000 376 / -32 164 Climatology (maximise GM) 235,000 166 / 27 94 Climatology (risk averse) Farm Income ($/2500ha) GM ($/ha) above/below ave Strategy
- 16. Forecast value Planted area 2500 ha 9% $527,500 $420,000 $410,000 Maximise GM 66% $490,000 $402,500 $235,000 Risk averse Forecast efficacy Correct forecast POAMA forecast Climatology
- 17. How long for a forecast to pay off? 7 years
- 18. How long for a forecast to pay off? 3 years
- 19. Forecast makes the most of good years 80% of income in 40% of years same income in 15% of years
- 20. Managing mixed farms with seasonal forecasts all crop all crop +FC crop/ pasture crop +FC / pasture crop +FC / pasture +FC dry wet 5 options Farm 1 Farm 3 Farm 4 Farm 5 Farm 2
- 21. 3000 ha farm, duplex soil Mixed farming benefits from a POAMA forecast GM from sheep Forecast benefit
- 23. Thank you CAWCR (The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research - A partnership between CSIRO and BoM) Peter McIntosh Principal Research Scientist Phone: +61 3 6232 5390 Email: peter.mcintosh@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au/cmar Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au
Notes de l'éditeur
- Fig. 4 - Example of changes in gross margins (A$ ha-1) for increasing N fertiliser applications for all May-October seasons (_____), for the above median May-October rainfall seasons only (…..) and for the below median May-October rainfall seasons only (- - - - -) for an initially dry (at start of season) clay soil at Nyabing in the Western Australian wheat-belt. Arrows indicate individual optimised N application for each group of seasons for a wheat price of A$200 t-1, N fertiliser cost of A$1 kg-1 N and a profit target of A$2 per each 1A$ invested in N fertiliser. See text for more details.
- Fig. 4 - Example of changes in gross margins (A$ ha-1) for increasing N fertiliser applications for all May-October seasons (_____), for the above median May-October rainfall seasons only (…..) and for the below median May-October rainfall seasons only (- - - - -) for an initially dry (at start of season) clay soil at Nyabing in the Western Australian wheat-belt. Arrows indicate individual optimised N application for each group of seasons for a wheat price of A$200 t-1, N fertiliser cost of A$1 kg-1 N and a profit target of A$2 per each 1A$ invested in N fertiliser. See text for more details. Question: Is $2 per $1 incremental or total?
- Keep sheep # constant
- Fig. 2 - Average (1980-2006) farm gross margin (A$ farm-1) for a duplex soil at a) Nyabing and b) Katanning, Western Australia for five management strategies. The whole bar shows the total farm cross margins, the open bar shows the gross margins from the pasture (sheep) component. All Crop – whole farm under cropping; All Crop + forecast; whole farm under cropping with N fertiliser management using seasonal POAMA rainfall forecasts; Crop/Pasture – mixed crop-pasture (sheep) farm; Crop + forecast/pasture – mixed crop-pasture (sheep) farm with N fertiliser management in cropping using seasonal POAMA rainfall forecasts; Crop + forecast/pasture + forecast – mixed crop-pasture (sheep) farm with N fertiliser management in cropping and pasture area allocated using seasonal POAMA rainfall forecasts. See Table 1 for farm details. Error bars indicate standard deviation for whole farm gross margins.