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CCAFS: An Overview
National Policy Workshop,
              Addis Ababa
                4July 2011
The challenge
Cropsuitabilityischanging




Averageprojectedchange in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050
Program design
the
partnership

CGIAR +
Earth System Science Partnership
(ESSP).
CCAFS
objectives
             1. Identify and develop pro-poor
               adaptation, risk
               management and mitigation
               practices, technologies and
               policies for agriculture and
               food systems.
             2. Support agricultural issues in
                climate change policies, and
                of climate issues inagricultural
                policies, at all levels.
Theme 1.
Adaptation to
Progressive
Climate Change
Theme 2.
 Managing
Climate Risk
Theme 3.
Pro-poor
mitigation
Theme 4. Integration for
decision making
Climate variability and change
                                      Improved
Technologies, practices, policies   environmental
and capacity enhancement:              benefits

1. Adaptation to progressive climate                    Improved
change                                                 livelihoods
2. Adaptation through managing
climate risk                                                      Improved
    3. Pro-poor climate change                                  food security
    mitigation
     4. Integration for decision making


                                            Enhanced adaptive
                                          capacity in agricultural,
                                           NRM & food systems
Place-based field and policy work




                                         Indo-Gangetic
                                         Plains:
West Africa:                             Parts of
Senegal, Mali, Bur                       India, Banglades
kina                  East Africa:       h, Nepal
Faso, Ghana, and      Tanzania, Ugan
                                         Regional program
Niger                 da, Kenya, and     leader:
                      Ethiopia           Pramod Aggarwal
Regional program
leader:               Regional program
Robert Zougmoré       leader:
                      James Kinyangi
Results from Kenya
Total annual GHG emissions
  1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption
           and fires in grazing lands (Winrock Study: Brown et al 2011)
                            Land-Use                  Nitrogen Grazing Area                 Tota
   Region        Country                 Livestock                             Total
                             Change                   Fertilizer   Burned                 from N
East Africa   Ethiopia           7,339       41,966            339     1,254     50,897     32,7
              Kenya              1,812       11,988            323       232     14,356     12,0
              Tanzania           1,833       13,935             42     1,736     17,546     28,0
              Uganda             1,112        6,204             18       524      7,858      5,7

              Subtotal         12,097        74,093         722       3,745      90,657     78,6

West Africa Burkina Faso          273         8,779          18        306        9,377      4,5
            Ghana               1,664         1,865          55        491        4,076      4,6
            Mali                  440         9,270          64        241       10,015      7,0
            Niger                  31        10,405          14           9      10,460      6,2
            Senegal               369         3,364          84        249        4,066      4,5
            Subtotal            2,778        33,683         235       1,297      37,993     26,9

              Grand Total      14,874       107,776         957        5,043    128,649 105,
Mapped distribution of increases in
cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006




                                    Brown et
                                    al, 2011
Area of grazing lands burned 2001-
               2007




                                                            Brown et
                                                            al, 2011
    Burned area data from
    http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurntAr
    eas2000-2007.php
Opportunities to reduce emissions or
 increase sequestration in Ethiopia
 Management option      Mitigation Potential   Actions required


 Livestock              High                   Technical options?


 Soil C sequestration   Moderate               Incentives? Monitoring?

 Reduced burning        Moderate               Technical options?


 Fertilizer             Low to date            Future efficiencies,
                                               sustainable
                                               intensification?
Other research in East Africa

GHG quantification

- Livestock system inventory methods (ILRI)

- Simple and cost effective MRV

- Regional capacity building
Improving benefits from carbon
    market projects involving farmers
7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF:
•Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia
•Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya
•Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda
• Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana

Lessons
          - Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr)
          - Need to decrease costs and risks
          - Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical
          - Monitoring livelihoods not a priority

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CCAFS: An Overview National Policy Workshop, Addis Ababa

  • 1. CCAFS: An Overview National Policy Workshop, Addis Ababa 4July 2011
  • 5. the partnership CGIAR + Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
  • 6. CCAFS objectives 1. Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation, risk management and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. 2. Support agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.
  • 10. Theme 4. Integration for decision making
  • 11. Climate variability and change Improved Technologies, practices, policies environmental and capacity enhancement: benefits 1. Adaptation to progressive climate Improved change livelihoods 2. Adaptation through managing climate risk Improved 3. Pro-poor climate change food security mitigation 4. Integration for decision making Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, NRM & food systems
  • 12. Place-based field and policy work Indo-Gangetic Plains: West Africa: Parts of Senegal, Mali, Bur India, Banglades kina East Africa: h, Nepal Faso, Ghana, and Tanzania, Ugan Regional program Niger da, Kenya, and leader: Ethiopia Pramod Aggarwal Regional program leader: Regional program Robert Zougmoré leader: James Kinyangi
  • 14. Total annual GHG emissions 1,000 t CO2e, from land-use change, livestock, nitrogen fertilizer consumption and fires in grazing lands (Winrock Study: Brown et al 2011) Land-Use Nitrogen Grazing Area Tota Region Country Livestock Total Change Fertilizer Burned from N East Africa Ethiopia 7,339 41,966 339 1,254 50,897 32,7 Kenya 1,812 11,988 323 232 14,356 12,0 Tanzania 1,833 13,935 42 1,736 17,546 28,0 Uganda 1,112 6,204 18 524 7,858 5,7 Subtotal 12,097 74,093 722 3,745 90,657 78,6 West Africa Burkina Faso 273 8,779 18 306 9,377 4,5 Ghana 1,664 1,865 55 491 4,076 4,6 Mali 440 9,270 64 241 10,015 7,0 Niger 31 10,405 14 9 10,460 6,2 Senegal 369 3,364 84 249 4,066 4,5 Subtotal 2,778 33,683 235 1,297 37,993 26,9 Grand Total 14,874 107,776 957 5,043 128,649 105,
  • 15. Mapped distribution of increases in cropland area for East Africa 2001 - 2006 Brown et al, 2011
  • 16. Area of grazing lands burned 2001- 2007 Brown et al, 2011 Burned area data from http://bioval.jrc.ec.europa.eu/products/burnt_areas_L3JRC/GlobalBurntAr eas2000-2007.php
  • 17. Opportunities to reduce emissions or increase sequestration in Ethiopia Management option Mitigation Potential Actions required Livestock High Technical options? Soil C sequestration Moderate Incentives? Monitoring? Reduced burning Moderate Technical options? Fertilizer Low to date Future efficiencies, sustainable intensification?
  • 18. Other research in East Africa GHG quantification - Livestock system inventory methods (ILRI) - Simple and cost effective MRV - Regional capacity building
  • 19. Improving benefits from carbon market projects involving farmers 7 projects In collaboration with Ecoagriculture, ICRAF: •Humbo Reforestation Project, World Vision, Ethiopia •Vi Agroforestry, CARE, TIST, Kenya •Ecotrust, NFA, Uganda • Cocoa Carbon Initiative, Ghana Lessons - Real benefits from yields, not payments ($2/yr) - Need to decrease costs and risks - Pre-existing institutions, upfront finance critical - Monitoring livelihoods not a priority

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Replace with Phil’s slide?
  2. CCAFS is rising to this challenge with a program of integrated research and policy work, across agriculture and food systems
  3. Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
  4. Livestock 82% Land use change 14%, total, fertilizer .0%, burning (Ch4 and N20) 2%500 m resolution HIGH uncertainty likely four East African countries account for 70% of the total emission from the nine countries, dominated by the emissions from land use change and livestock in Ethiopia – total emissions that we report here are comparable to those reported by each country in their National Communications, though as expected our estimates are higher reflecting likely increases in agriculture production since the time of their reports (Table 11). However, the estimates for different gases vary, for example the nitrous oxide emissions reported in the National Communications for the focal countries and year (< 11,000 t CO2e/yr for Kenya to about 6 million t CO2e/yr for Ethiopia) bear no resemblance to the estimates we obtained in Table 11.