8. 1. Drivers of change
often private &
internal
Often initiative from SF & traders
Public — Gov’t & NGO — can help, but not
always necessary
Stimulus often from domestic markets, not
exports
• Domestic marketing demands less stringent
9. 2. Cautious
Commercialisation
• Small areas switched to crops for
market
• SF rarely sacrifice food crops
• Double-edged sword!
• SF intensify
• fertiliser, (sometimes)
improved seed & agro-chemicals
• hired labour
• Biggest Step? Irrigation
Gradual, marginal
changes
10. 3. Active Labour, Land
markets …
•2010: 82 days
•2012: 138 days
Lume: > 90%
households
hired labour:
days annual
household:
2010 2012
% households renting
in land
13% 45%
US$ per hectare 200 340
11. 4. But sticky Capital Mkts
• NOT: credit from
Banks, advances from input
dealers, traders or processors
Working K
from SF
savings
• BUT may
• slow process
• limit degree
• restrict which households
participate
Lack of
credit not
a barrier
15. Crop income, by index
commercialisation Ghana, Ethiopia &
Malawi
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
- 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
US$Median
Commercialisation Index
16. 6. … But does it divide?
Households w. more
Land, Savings, Assets, (sometimes) better
Education take up opps
• Fewer assets than males
Female farmers
often
disadvantaged
• BUT commercial farming D
farm labour, so landless & poor
can benefit
Social
differences may
widen.
18. Paradox of Public Policy
•Comprehensive direct
action by state not
necessary?!
Not all cases
result from
programmes to
commercialise
• Encouragement to rural
enterprise from painful
reforms in 1980s & 90s has
paid off
Importance
of private
initiative
19. BUT: Public action critical:
• Remember: Ghana late
1970s, Ethiopia under
Derg, Tanzania late 1970s!
Investment
climate
• Schools, health posts
• Investment in Public Goods pays
Roads vital …
rural public
goods
No need for magic bullets?
20. Role for Min Agriculture
• SS irrigation in Lume
• Upgrading irrigation intakes in
central Tanzania
Strategic, limited
support by Min
Ag helps:
• Commercial opps need
for Innovations & Tech support
• Extension services most
effective with comm SF?
Technical
challenges
21. Riddle of Rural Finance
Lack of K limits
Investment, further gains
Improve rural financial
systems
• But with care!
• Promise: M-pesa, Equity Bank
22. Correct Female Disadvantage
Agricultural policy
will not transform
longstanding gender
imbalances … BUT:Recognise
& support
women’s
rights to
land &
water,
Invest in
drinking water
… things that
take women’s
time
Providing
extension
for female
farmers
23. Thinking on … Futures for SF
Strengths Weaknesses
• Self-supervising, diligent labour
• Knowledge of land and local
conditions
• Flexible production
• Limited access to capital, inputs
• Risks in production & marketing
• Meeting standards of some
supply chains
Opportunities Threats
• Urban growth
• Asian markets
• Much unused land: ‘sleeping
giant’
• Technical advances, already
known & others likely
• Climate change
• Land alienation
• Policy biases
• Demanding supply chains