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Economic effect of increased family planning and reduced fertility in Uganda

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Family Planning, Human Development and Growth in Uganda Jouko Kinnunen, VATT Hans Lofgren, WB Dino Merotto, WB Presented at the Twelfth Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis Santiago, Chile June 10-12, 2009 THE WORLD BANK GOVERNMENT INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH (VATT), Finland &
Background & Motivation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research Questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Current situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Economics & Demographics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MAMS of The World Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The demographic extension ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The dynamics of the demographic extension Population(sex,age) at time t (beginning of the year) Fertility (age of mother, sex of child) Mortality (sex,age) Migration (sex, age) Population(sex,age) at time t+1
Constant Elasticity function (1st tier)
Mortality rate
Fertility rate
Our BASE scenario 2003-2030 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Real growth of GDP components, percent under BASE scenario 2009-2030
MDG attainment
Policy simulations: increased Family Planning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Results of the FP scenarios ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Population under BASE and FP-ftr
Development of Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Base scenario FP-tax scenario Women Men
Final-year EV per capita as % of per-capita consumption
Sensitivity to cost of FP ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Change in Government Expenditure when Annual Cost of Protection per Couple is: $15 $30 $150
Final Conclusions & Remarks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank Your for Your Attention! ¡Muchas Gracias por su Atención!

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