A look at our style of decision making and how we make group decisions.

1. Decision
Making
Our Style
Our Groups
Jim Marteney

2. Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad
Decision
Play up information that confirms
your current point of view.
Make a decision based on money
and time you've already spent.
Ignore information that doesn't
confirm your current point of view.
Pay too much attention to the first
thing you hear, or the first data you
receive.
Frame a decision only on the
benefits OR risks, but not both.

3. Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad
Decision
Wear doom-colored glasses when
you are estimating the results.
Wear rose-colored glasses when
you are estimating the results.
Believe that your "gut" is the
smartest person in the room.
Use nothing but data.
Don't use data at all.

4. Everyone Has Their Own
Style
Communication
That leads to a style of
Decision Making

5. Workstyle Communication
Patient Fast
Owl Eagle
Systematic Direct
Notice my efficiency I want it done now Task
Better Safe Than Sorry Notice My Accomplishments
Considerate Spirited
People and feelings important Ain’t we got fun
People
Is Everyone Comfortable? Don’t Confuse Me With Facts
Dove Roadrunner

6. Decision Making Style
Observing Knowing
Bloodhound Bull
Analytical Direct
We need more Strike while Unemotional
data to be the iron is
sure. hot.
Amiable Expressive
This idea Emotional
Will decision make
sounds like
us comfortable?
fun.
Bee Eagle

7. Develop Alternatives
Two important steps
Ideation
Judgment

8. Develop Alternatives
Brainstorming
Goal is Quantity
No Criticism
Build on Ideas

9. Develop Alternatives
“If you only have a
hammer, you tend to
see every problem as a
nail.”
Abraham Maslow

10. Develop Alternatives
Problem: How Do You get people in a
park to throw away their trash?
Traditional “hammer” what punishment
would get them to not litter?
Reframe problem: How do you
make throwing trash away fun?

11. Develop Alternatives
The World’s Deepest Trashcan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tcrhp-IWK2w

12. Analyze Alternatives
Appraise Strengths
Appraise Weaknesses

13. Analyze Alternatives

14. Select Alternative
Continuum of Certainty
Preponderance
Reasonable
of Evidence
Doubt
0% 51% 100%

15. Inference Test
The number one
skill of the human
mind
Recognizing Patterns

16. eading a Supportive Group
Every group has a
unique personality
Syntality

17. eading a Supportive Group
Group strength from
effective merging of
participants
individual energy
Synergy

18. eading a Supportive Group
Two Challenges Managing Group Tension
Groupthink
Abilene Paradox

19. Groupthink
Mismanagement of Disagreement
Irving Janis

20. Groupthink
1972
Groupthink occurs
when a homogenous
highly cohesive group
is so concerned with
maintaining unanimity
that they fail to
evaluate all their
alternatives and
options.

21. Groupthink
“The
psychological
drive for
consensus at any
cost that
suppresses
dissent and
appraisal of
alternatives in
Irving
cohesive Janis
decision-making
groups”

22. Groupthink

23. Groupthink
Pearl Harbor
Bay of Pigs
Challenger

24. Groupthink
RFK was quoted as
approaching
Schlesinger and
saying: “You may be
right or wrong, but
the President has made
up his mind. Don’t
push it any further.
Now is the time to Bay of Pigs
help him all we can.”

25. Groupthink
Schlesinger stopped
his usual role as
devil’s advocate
and critic and
began to sanction
his own challenges.
Bay of Pigs

26. Groupthink
Challeng
er
Shuttle

27. Groupthink

28. Groupthink
Iraq Decision
“While the intention of this book
is not to evaluate the Decision
to Invade Iraq, the cumulative
evidence to date strongly
suggests that it is a classic case
of groupthink.”
Author: Ph.D, Deborah L. MacKenzie

29. Groupthink
According to a scathing
report released by the
Senate Intelligence
Committee, the United States
went to war with Iraq on
the basis of flawed
intelligence assessments.

30. Groupthink
The CIA analysts suffered a
case of Groupthink that
rendered them incapable of
considering
that Iraq might have
dismantled its weapons
programs.
Senate Intelligence
Committee July 10 2004

31. Groupthink
“I cannot imagine
any condition
which would cause
a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith,
Captain of the Titanic

32. Groupthink
“I cannot imagine
any condition
which would cause
a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith,
Captain of the Titanic

33. Groupthink
Members avoid
being too harsh in
their judgments of
their leader’s or
their colleagues’
ideas.

34. Groupthink
They adopt a soft
line of criticism,
even in their own
thinking.

35. Groupthink
At their meetings,
all the members
are amiable and
seek complete
concurrence on
every important
issue, with no
bickering or
conflict to spoil
the cozy, “we-
feeling”
atmosphere.
----Psychology Today

36. Groupthink
Symptoms
Pressure for
Conformity
Self-Censorship
Illusion of
Unanimity
Mindguards

37. Groupthink
Negative Outcomes
Examining few alternatives
Not being critical of each other's ideas
Not examining early alternatives
Not seeking expert opinion
Being highly selective in gathering
information
Not having contingency plans

38. Groupthink
Preventing
Refrain from stating
preference
Encourage member’s objections
Assign a Devil’s Advocate
Seek expert input
Call a “Second Chance Meeting”
Split into Sub-groups

39. Groupthink
The Key:
Someone with
the courage
to disagree.

40. Abilene Paradox
The Mismanagement of Agreement
Occurs when a group
takes action
contrary to the
desires of the
members
and thus, defeats
the purpose of the
group.

41. Abilene Paradox
The Mismanagement of Agreement

42. Abilene Paradox
“Taking the trip to Abilene”
Jerry Harvey

43. Group Climate
Two Basic Group Climates
 Supportive
 Defensive

44. Build a Consensus

45. Build a Consensus

46. Build a Consensus
Where all Group Members
at least partially agree
are committed to the decision

47. Build a Consensus

48. Build a Consensus
Avoid Arguing
for
Just your
Opinion
Avoid Win/Lose Situations
Seek Differences of Opinion
Use Group Pronouns
Orient Towards Group Goal

49. Implement Alternative
There will always be resistance

50. Implement Alternative
Change has considerable
impact on the human
mind.
To the fearful, it is threatening
because it means things may get
worse.
To the hopeful, it is
encouraging because things
may get better.
To the confident, it is
inspiring because the
challenge exists to make
things better.

51. Implement Alternative
Obviously then, one's
character and frame of mind
determine how one relates
to change.

52. “When you assemble a
number of (people) to
have advantage of
their joint wisdom,
you assemble with
those (people), all
their

53. Prejudices, their
passions, their errors
of opinion, their local
interest, and their
selfish views.
From such an assembly
can a perfect production
be expected?”
Ben
Franklin
Constitutional Convention
September
15, 1787