2. Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad
Decision
Play up information that confirms
your current point of view.
Make a decision based on money
and time you've already spent.
Ignore information that doesn't
confirm your current point of view.
Pay too much attention to the first
thing you hear, or the first data you
receive.
Frame a decision only on the
benefits OR risks, but not both.
3. Top 10 Ways to Make a Bad
Decision
Wear doom-colored glasses when
you are estimating the results.
Wear rose-colored glasses when
you are estimating the results.
Believe that your "gut" is the
smartest person in the room.
Use nothing but data.
Don't use data at all.
4. Everyone Has Their Own
Style
Communication
That leads to a style of
Decision Making
5. Workstyle Communication
Patient Fast
Owl Eagle
Systematic Direct
Notice my efficiency I want it done now Task
Better Safe Than Sorry Notice My Accomplishments
Considerate Spirited
People and feelings important Ain’t we got fun
People
Is Everyone Comfortable? Don’t Confuse Me With Facts
Dove Roadrunner
6. Decision Making Style
Observing Knowing
Bloodhound Bull
Analytical Direct
We need more Strike while Unemotional
data to be the iron is
sure. hot.
Amiable Expressive
This idea Emotional
Will decision make
sounds like
us comfortable?
fun.
Bee Eagle
9. Develop Alternatives
“If you only have a
hammer, you tend to
see every problem as a
nail.”
Abraham Maslow
10. Develop Alternatives
Problem: How Do You get people in a
park to throw away their trash?
Traditional “hammer” what punishment
would get them to not litter?
Reframe problem: How do you
make throwing trash away fun?
20. Groupthink
1972
Groupthink occurs
when a homogenous
highly cohesive group
is so concerned with
maintaining unanimity
that they fail to
evaluate all their
alternatives and
options.
21. Groupthink
“The
psychological
drive for
consensus at any
cost that
suppresses
dissent and
appraisal of
alternatives in
Irving
cohesive Janis
decision-making
groups”
23. Groupthink
Pearl Harbor
Bay of Pigs
Challenger
24. Groupthink
RFK was quoted as
approaching
Schlesinger and
saying: “You may be
right or wrong, but
the President has made
up his mind. Don’t
push it any further.
Now is the time to Bay of Pigs
help him all we can.”
25. Groupthink
Schlesinger stopped
his usual role as
devil’s advocate
and critic and
began to sanction
his own challenges.
Bay of Pigs
28. Groupthink
Iraq Decision
“While the intention of this book
is not to evaluate the Decision
to Invade Iraq, the cumulative
evidence to date strongly
suggests that it is a classic case
of groupthink.”
Author: Ph.D, Deborah L. MacKenzie
29. Groupthink
According to a scathing
report released by the
Senate Intelligence
Committee, the United States
went to war with Iraq on
the basis of flawed
intelligence assessments.
30. Groupthink
The CIA analysts suffered a
case of Groupthink that
rendered them incapable of
considering
that Iraq might have
dismantled its weapons
programs.
Senate Intelligence
Committee July 10 2004
31. Groupthink
“I cannot imagine
any condition
which would cause
a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith,
Captain of the Titanic
32. Groupthink
“I cannot imagine
any condition
which would cause
a ship to founder”
Edward J. Smith,
Captain of the Titanic
33. Groupthink
Members avoid
being too harsh in
their judgments of
their leader’s or
their colleagues’
ideas.
34. Groupthink
They adopt a soft
line of criticism,
even in their own
thinking.
35. Groupthink
At their meetings,
all the members
are amiable and
seek complete
concurrence on
every important
issue, with no
bickering or
conflict to spoil
the cozy, “we-
feeling”
atmosphere.
----Psychology Today
36. Groupthink
Symptoms
Pressure for
Conformity
Self-Censorship
Illusion of
Unanimity
Mindguards
37. Groupthink
Negative Outcomes
Examining few alternatives
Not being critical of each other's ideas
Not examining early alternatives
Not seeking expert opinion
Being highly selective in gathering
information
Not having contingency plans
38. Groupthink
Preventing
Refrain from stating
preference
Encourage member’s objections
Assign a Devil’s Advocate
Seek expert input
Call a “Second Chance Meeting”
Split into Sub-groups
39. Groupthink
The Key:
Someone with
the courage
to disagree.
40. Abilene Paradox
The Mismanagement of Agreement
Occurs when a group
takes action
contrary to the
desires of the
members
and thus, defeats
the purpose of the
group.
48. Build a Consensus
Avoid Arguing
for
Just your
Opinion
Avoid Win/Lose Situations
Seek Differences of Opinion
Use Group Pronouns
Orient Towards Group Goal
50. Implement Alternative
Change has considerable
impact on the human
mind.
To the fearful, it is threatening
because it means things may get
worse.
To the hopeful, it is
encouraging because things
may get better.
To the confident, it is
inspiring because the
challenge exists to make
things better.
51. Implement Alternative
Obviously then, one's
character and frame of mind
determine how one relates
to change.
52. “When you assemble a
number of (people) to
have advantage of
their joint wisdom,
you assemble with
those (people), all
their
53. Prejudices, their
passions, their errors
of opinion, their local
interest, and their
selfish views.
From such an assembly
can a perfect production
be expected?”
Ben
Franklin
Constitutional Convention
September
15, 1787