Isss service science reframing skeleton and progress 20120717 v3

IBM University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development (IBM Upward)

Service Science Update:
Reframing the Skeleton & Reframing
Progress With Universities

IBM Centennial Icon of Progress

Smarter Planet T-shaped People Alexandria/Egypt-Japan University of Science & Technology

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, spohrer@us.ibm.com
Innovation Champion and Director IBM UPward
(University Programs worldwide, accelerating regional development)

International Society of Systems Sciences
San Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA, Tuesday July 17, 2012

© 2012 IBM Corporation

Today’s Talk
 Introduction: The Big Picture & Systems Thinking
– Real World Systems (RWS): Natural Systems & Service Systems
– Some Reading: Gallis, Normann, Deacon, etc.
– Policymaking & Universities as Essential Institutions

 Reframing the Skeleton (Boulding)
– General Phenomena/Ecology
– Hierarchy Complexity/Evolution
– Specialization/Academic Silos – Slowing Progress

 Reframing Progress With Universities
– Bounded Rationality & Knowledge Burden
– {Innovativeness, Equity, Sustainability, Resilience}
– University as “Holistic Product-Service Systems”
• Rehearsing Rebuilding Society
• Rewinding The Tape of Life (Gould)

2 IBM UPward (University Programs worldwide – accelerating regional development) © 2012 IBM Corporation

~14B Evolution of Natural Systems & Service Systems ~10K
Big Bang Cities
(Natural Unraveling the mystery of evolving hierarchical-complexity in new populations… (Human-Made
Time
World) To discover the world’s architectures and mechanisms for computing non-zero-sum World)

writing
(symbols and scribes,
stored memory
and knowledge)

written laws

ECOLOGY
(governance and
stored control)

sun (energy) money
earth (governed
(molecules & transportable value
stored energy) stored value,
“economic energy”)
bacteria
(single-cell life)

bees (social
sponges transistor
division-of-labor)
(multi-cell life) (routine
cognitive work) universities
(knowledge workers
clams (neurons) printing press (books
trilobites (brains) 200M 60 steam engine (work)

Co-Evolution (Michael Gallis & Associates)

http://www.scribd.com/doc/46259459/Co-Evolution


Our World and Us

Ha
rt sP
Pa art
H as

Smarter Service Systems =
Natural Systems Complex Systems Service Systems
Planetary Systems Serve Customers Better
That
water, electricity, transportation, education, healthcare, etc.
Be ts
n ef i n ef i
ts Be
Carbon Capabilities,
Footprint Experience

(Choices) (Choices)

Quality of Life

Normann: Reframing Business

 Reframing Business:
When the Map Changes
the Landscape
 Richard Normann
 Value-Creating Systems


Deacon: Incomplete Nature

 Incomplete Nature: How Mind
Emerged From Matter
 Terrence W. Deacon
 Thermodynamics ->
Teleodynamics (purpose-
driven system dynamics)
 Purpose = map


Spohrer et al: Service Science and Policymaking

 Three Frameworks for Service
Research: Exploring Multilevel
Governance in Nested,
Networked Systems
 Jim Spohrer, Paolo Piciocchi,
Clara Bassano
 Nested, Networked Systems


University: Three Missions
Nation

 Knowledge State/Province
City/Metro
– Transfer (Teaching) For-profits U-BEE
Job Creator/Sustainer
– Creation (Research) Cultural &
Conference
University
Hospital
Medical
College
Hotels Research
K-12
– Application (RWS Impact)
Worker Family
• Commerce/Entrepreneurship Non-profits (professional) (household)

• Governance/Policymaking

 Nested Holistic Systems
– Flows
Third Mission (Apply to Create Value)
– Development is about U-BEEs =
University-Based Entrepreneurial
– Governance Ecosystems


We Are All Part Of Nested, Networked Systems

Matryoska dolls:
Origin Japanese


I am nested in at least 10 systems

Level AKA ~No. People ~No. Entities Example
0. Individual Person 1 10,000,000,000 Jim
1. Family Household 10 1,000,000,000 Spohrer’s
2.Neighborhood Street 100 100,000,000 Kensington
3. Community Block 1000 10,000,000 Bird Land
4. Urban-Zone District 10,000 1,000,000 SC Unified
5. Urban-Center City 100,0000 100,000 Santa Clara
6.Metro-Region County 1,000,000 10,000 SC County
7. State Province 10,000,000 1,000 CA
8. Nation Country 100,000,000 100 USA
9. Continent Union 1,000,000,000 10 NAFTA
10. Planet World 10,000,000,000 1 UN


8 levels of living systems (Miller, 1972)
Cell ... living systems theory (LST) asserts
that all of the great variety of living
Organ entities that evolution has produced
Organism are complexly structured open
systems.
Group They maintain within their boundaries
their thermodynamically improbable
Organization energetic states by continuous
interactions with their environments.

Community Inputs and outputs of both matter-
energy and information are essential
for living systems. The total inputs
are lower in entropy and higher in
information than the total outputs.
Society [....]
The eight levels of living systems
evolved by a process of fray-out (see
Figure 1) in which the larger higher-
Supranational level systems developed increasingly
complex components in each
System subsystem than those below them in
the hierarchy of living systems. [....]
Fray-out can be likened to the
unraveling of a ship's cable
12 Service Systems, Natural Systems April 20, 2012 © 2012 David Ing

General System Theory:
The Skeleton of Science (Boulding, 1956)
Two possible approaches
to organization of general systems theory
suggest themselves, which are to be thought of
as complementary rather than competitive, or
at least as two roads each of which is worth exploring.
The first approach is The second approach is
to look over to arrange
the empirical universe and the empirical fields
pick out in a hierarchy of complexity
certain general phenomena of organization of
which are found their basic “individual” or
in many different disciplines, unit of behavior, and
and to seek to build up try to develop an abstraction
general theoretical models appropriate to each.
relevant to those phenomena.

13 Service Systems, Natural Systems April 20, 2012 © 2012 David Ing

The first approach ... The second approach ...
certain general phenomena ... of organization ...

Some examples of the first approach ....
… the interaction of population can be discussed in terms of … may
competitive, complementary or parasitic relationships ... ultimately
lead to
… “behavior” of each individual is “explained” by the structure and
something
arrange of the lower individuals of which it is composed, or by
like a
certain principles of equilibrium or homeostasis according to
general
which “states” of the individual are “preferred”.
field
Some growth phenomena can be dealt with in terms of relatively theory of
simple population models .... At the more complex levels, dynamics
structural problems become dominant and the complex and
interrelationships between growth and form are the focus of interaction
interest.
Communication and information processes … are unquestionably .
essential in the development of organization, both in the
biological and social world. This,
however,
14 Service Systems, Natural Systems April 20, 2012
is
© 2012 David Ing
a long

The first approach ... The second approach ...
certain general phenomena ... of organization ...

… more systematic, leading to a “system of systems”.
(I) … first level … static structure … level of frameworks. One
(ii) … simple dynamic system with predetermined, necessary motions … level of advant
clockworks. age …
(iii) … control mechanism or cybernetic system … level of the thermostat. it gives
us
(iv) … “open system,” or self-maintaining structure … life begins to differentiate
some
itself from not-life … level of the cell.
idea of
(v) … genetic-societal level … typified by the plant. the
(vi) … “animal” level, characterized by increased mobility, teleological behaviour present
and self-awareness. gaps in
(vii) … “human” level … self-consciousness … different from mere awareness. both
theoreti
(viii) … symbolic images and behavior based on them … social organization. cal and
(ix) … transcendental systems … ultimates and absolutes and the inescapable empiric
unknowables ... al
15 Service Systems, Natural Systems April 20, 2012
knowled
© 2012 David Ing
ge.

T-shaped professionals
depth & breadth

Many cultures
Many disciplines
Many systems
(understanding & communications)

BREADTH

Deep in one discipline

Deep in one system
Deep in one culture
DEPTH

(analytic thinking & problem solving)

16

Specialization has benefits

Adam Smith: David Ricardo:
Division of Labor Comparative Advantage


Knowledge: Individuals & Society

Herbert Simon: Ben Jones:
Bounded Rationality Burden of Knowledge


Technology has a cost

 “The burden of knowledge”

Cesar Hidalgo:
Societal Knowledge


The limits of our individual knowledge


Resiliency: Capability to rebuild (and recycle) rapidly

China Broad Group:
30 Stories in 15 Days


Four measures

 Innovativeness

 Equity

 Sustainability

 Resiliency


Sustainability/Resilience & Innovation: Local-p global-i supply chains
World as System of Systems
World (light blue - largest)
Nations (green - large)
States (dark blue - medium)
Cities (yellow - small)
Universities (red - smallest)

Cities as System of Systems
Developed Market -Transportation & Supply Chain
Nations -Water & Waste Recycling
(> $20K GDP/Capita) -Food & Products ((Nano)
-Energy & Electricity
-Information/ICT & Cloud (Info)
-Buildings & Construction
Emerging Market -Retail & Hospitality/Media & Entertainment
Nations -Banking & Finance
(< $20K GDP/Capita) -Healthcare & Family (Bio)
-Education & Professions (Cogno)
-Government (City, State, Nation)

Nations: Innovation Opportunities
- GDP/Capita (level and growth rate)
- Energy/Capita (fossil and renewable)


Universities Worldwide Accelerating Regional Development

“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction –
the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by
Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion
in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”


Cities: land-population-energy-carbon

Carlo Ratti:
Senseable Cities


What improves Quality-of-Life? Service System Innovations
* = US Labor % in 2009.

A. Systems that focus on flow of things that humans need (~15%*) 20/10/10
1. Transportation & supply chain
2/7/4
2. Water & waste recycling/Climate & Environment2/1/1
7/6/1
3. Food & products manufacturing 1/1/0
4. Energy & electricity grid/Clean Tech
5/17/27
5. Information and Communication Technologies (ICT access)
B. Systems that focus on human activity and development (~70%*)
1/0/2
6. Buildings & construction (smart spaces) (5%*) 24/24/1
7. Retail & hospitality/Media & entertainment/Tourism & sports (23%*)
2/20/24
7/10/3 (wealthy) (21%*)
8. Banking & finance/Business & consulting
5/2/2
9. Healthcare & family life (healthy) (10%*)
10. Education & work life/Professions & entrepreneurship (wise) (9%*)
3/3/1
C. Systems that focus on human governance - security and opportunity (~15%*) 0/0/0
11. Cities & security for families and professionals (property tax)
1/2/2
12. States/regions & commercial development opportunities/investments (sales tax)
0/19/0
13. Nations/NGOs & citizens rights/rules/incentives/policies/laws (income tax)
Quality of Life = Quality of Service + Quality of Jobs + Quality of Investment-Opportunities
“61 Service Design 2010 (Japan) / 75 Service Marketing 2010 (Portugal)/78 Service-Oriented Computing 2010 (US)”


Systems-Disciplines Framework: Depth & Breadth
systems Systems that focus on flows of things Systems that support people’s activities Systems that govern
transportation & ICT & retail & healthcare
food & education city state nation
disciplines supply chain water & energy
products & electricity
cloud building & hospitality banking & family
&work secure scale laws
waste construction & finance
behavioral sciences
Customer
stakeholders

e.g., marketing

Provider management sciences
e.g., operations
Observe Stakeholders (As-Is)
political sciences
Authority
e.g., public policy
learning sciences
Competitors e.g., game theory
and strategy
cognitive sciences
People
e.g., psychology
resources

system sciences
Technology
e.g., industrial eng.
information sciences
Observe Resource Access (As-Is)
Information
e.g., computer sci
organization sciences
Organizations
e.g., knowledge mgmt

History social sciences
change

e.g., econ & law
(Data Analytics)
decision sciences
Imagine Possibilities (Has-Been & Might-Become)
Future e.g., stats & design
(Roadmap)
run professions
Run
e.g., knowledge worker
Transform
value

(Copy)
transform professions
e.g., consultant
Realize Value (To-Be)
Innovate innovate professions
(Invent)
e.g., entrepreneur


Manufacturing as a local recycling & assembly service

Ryan Chin:
Urban Mobility


Self-driving cars

Steve Mahan:
Test “Driver”


Regional Competitiveness and U-BEEs:
Where imagined possible worlds become observable real worlds
http://www.service-science.info/archives/1056

Innovations Nation
Universities/ “The future is already
State/Province here (at universities),
Regions City/Region
Calculus (Cambridge/UK)
For-profits
it is just not evenly
Physics (Cambridge/UK) U-BEE
Computer Science (Columbia/NY) distributed.”
Microsoft (Harvard/WA) Job Creator/Sustainer
Yahoo (Stanford/CA) Hospital
Cultural & University
Google (Stanford/CA) Medical
Conference College
Facebook (Harvard/CA) Research
Hotels K-12
“The best way to
Non-profits Worker
(professional)
Family
(household)
predict the future
is to (inspire the next
generation of students
to) build it better.”

U-BEEs = University-Based Entrepreneurial Ecosystems, City Within City

What is service science? A service system? The ABC’s?

Design/
Cognitive Science Systems
Engineering
“service science is “a service system is a
the transdisciplinary study of human-made system to improve
service systems & provider-customer interactions
value-cocreation” and value-cocreation outcomes,
by dynamically configuring resource
Marketing access via value propositions,
most often studied by many disciplines,
one piece at a time.”

The ABC’s:
The provider (A)
and a customer (B)
transform a target (C)

Computer Science/
Artificial Intelligence Economics & Law Operations

A Framework for Global Civil Society

 Daniel Patrick Moynihan said nearly 50 years ago: "If you want to
build a world class city, build a great university and wait 200
years." His insight is true today – except yesterday's 200 years
has become twenty. More than ever, universities will generate and
sustain the world’s idea capitals and, as vital creators,
incubators, connectors, and channels of thought and
understanding, they will provide a framework for global civil
society.
– John Sexton, President NYU


Visit IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA

 Upcoming Conferences
– July 2012
• ISSS San Jose
• HSSE San Francisco

 More Information
– Blog
• www.service-science.info
– Twitter
• @JimSpohrer
– Presentations
• www.slideshare.net/spohrer
– Email
• spohrer@us.ibm.com


Thank-You! Questions?

“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM
“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org
“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli
“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay
“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge
“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov
“Think global, act local.” – Geddes

Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer
Innovation Champion &
Director, IBM University Programs & open worldwide entrepreneurship research (IBM UPower) WW
spohrer@us.ibm.com


IBM’s Leadership Changes

IBM has 426,000
employees worldwide
2011 Financials
22% of IBM’s revenue
 Revenue - $ 106.9B
in Growth Market
 Net Income - $ 15.9B
countries; growing at
11% in 2011  EPS - $ 13.44
 Net Cash - $16.6B More than 40% of IBM’s
workforce conducts business
away from an office

55% of IBM’s Workforce
IBM operates in 170 is New to the company in
countries around the globe the last 5 years
Number 1 in patent
generation for 19
100 Years of Business consecutive years ;
& Innovation in 2011 6,180 US patents
awarded in 2011 The Smartest Machine On Earth
9 time winner of the 5 Nobel
President’s National Laureates
Medal of Technology
& Innovation - latest “Let’s Build a Smarter
award for Blue Gene Planet"
Supercomputer


AEIOU of sciences – service science
 Abstract Entities – service systems
– Learning to apply knowledge to compete & cooperate
 Interactions – value propositions
 Outcome Universals – value-cocreation (or not)
– Increasing capabilities and quality-of-life for individuals
Cities compete & cooperate Universities compete & cooperate


~250 years of infrastructure transformations
Installation Crash Deployment
Irruption Frenzy Synergy Maturity
• Formation of Mfg. industry
1 The I ndust r i al 1771
Panic • Repeal of Corn Laws 1829
Revol ut i on 1797
opening trade

• Standards on gauge, time
A ge of St eam Panic
2 and Rai l ways
1829
1847
• Catalog sales companies 1873
• Economies of scale

A ge of St eel , Depressio • Urban development
3 El ect r i ci t y 1875
n • Support for interventionism
1920
1893
and Heavy
Engi neer i ng • Build-out of Interstate
A ge of Oi l , Crash
4 A ut omobi l es
1908
1929 highways 1974
• IMF, World Bank, BIS
and Mass Pr oduct i on
Coming period of
A ge of I nf or mat i on Credit Crisis
5 and
1971 2008 Institutional Adjustment
and Production Capital
Tel ecommuni cat i ons
Source: Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages; (Edward Elar Publishers, 2003).


~100 years of US job transformations

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis; McKinsey Global Institute Analysis

We need better frameworks, theories, and models of…
 Four I’s
Cultural Information
– Infrastructure
(Quality-of-Life Measures)
– Individuals
– Institutions
– Information
Individuals Institutions
 Four Measures (Skills) (Rules, Jobs)
– Innovativeness
– Equity
– Sustainability Societal Infrastructure
– Resiliency (Technologies & Environment)

Service systems entities learn to apply knowledge

Learning
To Apply Knowledge

Do It Invent It
Exploitation Exploration

Run Transform Innovate

Operations L Internal Incremental

Maintenance
Copy It External Radical

Insurance Interaction Super-Radical

March, J.G. (1991) Exploration and exploitation in organizational learning. Organizational Science. 2(1).71-87.
Sanford, L.S. (2006) Let go to grow: Escaping the commodity trap. Prentice Hall. New York, NY.


California Human Development Report 2011:
From meaning-of-life to quality-of-life….

http://www.measureofamerica.org/docs/APortraitOfCA.pdf

Imagining quality-of-life innovations…


What is the future? We can imagine many possibilities…

Kurzweilai.net

Isss service science reframing skeleton and progress 20120717 v3

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