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Lecture2 Applied Econometrics and Economic Modeling
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A Fibonacci analysis is a popular tool among technical traders. It is based on the Fibonacci sequence numbers identified by Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century. Here are the Fibonacci sequence numbers: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89,144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, 4181, 6765, ………………… As the Fibonacci number become large, the constant relationship is established between neighbouring numbers. For example, every time, when we divide the former number by latter: Fn-1/Fn, we will get nearly 0.618 ratio. Likewise, when we divide the latter number by former: Fn/Fn-1, we will get nearly 1.618. These two Fibonacci ratio 0.618 and 1.618 are considered as the Golden Ratio. We can use these Golden ratios to start our Fibonacci analysis. However, many technical traders use additional Fibonacci ratios derived from the Golden ratio. Since the calculation of each Fibonacci ratio is well known, I have listed all the available Fibonacci ratio calculation in Table 1-1.
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For the Price Action and Pattern Analysis, it is important to have good visualization tools. Since we want to find important patterns for our trading, we will need a good size monitor and good visualization software. Of course, you should invest on them as much as you can afford. No single visualization techniques are perfect. They always possess some advantages as well as some disadvantages. Firstly, line chart is the most basic visualization technique for traders. Line is simply drawn by connecting each session’s closing price. For example, 1-hour line chart is simply drawn by connecting the closing price of 1-hour candle. As line chart are produced by connecting two points at the fixed time interval, they can provide a great insight about some regularities in the price series. For this reason, not only traders use the line chart but also many mathematicians use them to visualize the price series data. Line chart is useful when we want to exam some cyclic behaviour like seasonality or any cyclic patterns made up from sine or cosine function. Line chart is also useful when you want to compare multiple price series in one chart. On the other hands, the disadvantage of the line chart is that it does not provide the trading range of each session. In addition, due to the continuously drawn line, it is difficult to see any gap between sessions. In addition, line chart miss some important attributes like highest and lowest prices of each session.
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4 DDBA 8307 Week 7 Assignment Template John Doe DDBA 8307-6 Dr. Jane Doe 1 Two-Way Contingency Table Analysis Type text here. You will describe and defend using the two-way contingency table analysis. Use at least two outside resources—that is, resources not provided in the course resources, readings, etc. These citations will be presented in the References section. This exercise will give you practice for addressing Rubric Item 2.13b, which states, “Describes and defends, in detail, the statistical analyses that the student will conduct….” This section should be no more than two paragraphs. Research Question Type appropriate research question here? Hypotheses H0: Type appropriate null hypothesis here. H1: Type appropriate alternative hypothesis here. Results Type introduction here. Descriptive Statistics Present the descriptive statistics here—use appropriate table and figures. Inferential Results Type the inferential results here. 2 References Type references here in proper APA format. Appendix – Two-Way Contingency Table Analysis SPSS Output BUS 308 Week 2 Lecture 2 Statistical Testing for Differences – Part 1 After reading this lecture, the student should know: 1. How statistical distributions are used in hypothesis testing. 2. How to interpret the F test (both options) produced by Excel 3. How to interpret the T-test produced by Excel Overview Lecture 1 introduced the logic of statistical testing using the hypothesis testing procedure. It also mentioned that we will be looking at two different tests this week. The t-test is used to determine if means differ, from either a standard or claim or from another group. The F-test is used to examine variance differences between groups. This lecture starts by looking at statistical distributions – they underline the entire statistical testing approach. They are kind of like the detective’s base belief that crimes are committed for only a couple of reasons – money, vengeance, or love. The statistical distribution that underlies each test assumes that statistical measures (such as the F value when comparing variances and the t value when looking at means) follow a particular pattern, and this can be used to make decisions. While the underlying distributions differ for the different tests we will be looking at throughout the course, they all have some basic similarities that allow us to examine the t distribution and extrapolate from it to interpreting results based on other distributions. Distributions. The basic logic for all statistical tests: If the null hypothesis claim is correct, then the distribution of the statistical outcome will be distributed around a central value, and larger and smaller values will be increasingly rare. At some point (and we define this as our alpha value), we can say that the likelihood of getting a difference this large is extremely unlikely and we will say that our results do.
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BUS308 – Week 1 Lecture 2 Describing Data Expected Outcomes After reading this lecture, the student should be familiar with: 1. Basic descriptive statistics for data location 2. Basic descriptive statistics for data consistency 3. Basic descriptive statistics for data position 4. Basic approaches for describing likelihood 5. Difference between descriptive and inferential statistics What this lecture covers This lecture focuses on describing data and how these descriptions can be used in an analysis. It also introduces and defines some specific descriptive statistical tools and results. Even if we never become a data detective or do statistical tests, we will be exposed and bombarded with statistics and statistical outcomes. We need to understand what they are telling us and how they help uncover what the data means on the “crime,” AKA research question/issue. How we obtain these results will be covered in lecture 1-3. Detecting In our favorite detective shows, starting out always seems difficult. They have a crime, but no real clues or suspects, no idea of what happened, no “theory of the crime,” etc. Much as we are at this point with our question on equal pay for equal work. The process followed is remarkably similar across the different shows. First, a case or situation presents itself. The heroes start by understanding the background of the situation and those involved. They move on to collecting clues and following hints, some of which do not pan out to be helpful. They then start to build relationships between and among clues and facts, tossing out ideas that seemed good but lead to dead-ends or non-helpful insights (false leads, etc.). Finally, a conclusion is reached and the initial question of “who done it” is solved. Data analysis, and specifically statistical analysis, is done quite the same way as we will see. Descriptive Statistics Week 1 Clues We are interested in whether or not males and females are paid the same for doing equal work. So, how do we go about answering this question? The “victim” in this question could be considered the difference in pay between males and females, specifically when they are doing equal work. An initial examination (Doc, was it murder or an accident?) involves obtaining basic information to see if we even have cause to worry. The first action in any analysis involves collecting the data. This generally involves conducting a random sample from the population of employees so that we have a manageable data set to operate from. In this case, our sample, presented in Lecture 1, gave us 25 males and 25 females spread throughout the company. A quick look at the sample by HR provided us with assurance that the group looked representative of the company workforce we are concerned with as a whole. Now we can confidently collect clues to see if we should be concerned or not. As with any detective, the first issue is to understand the.
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These is info only ill be attaching the questions work CJ 301 – Measures of Dispersion/Variability Think back to the description of measures of central tendency that describes these statistics as measures of how the data in a distribution are clustered, around what summary measure are most of the data points clustered. But when comes to descriptive statistics and describing the characteristics of a distribution, averages are only half story. The other half is measures of variability. In the most simple of terms, variability reflects how scores differ from one another. For example, the following set of scores shows some variability: 7, 6, 3, 3, 1 The following set of scores has the same mean (4) and has less variability than the previous set: 3, 4, 4, 5, 4 The next set has no variability at all – the scores do not differ from one another – but it also has the same mean as the other two sets we just showed you. 4, 4, 4, 4, 4 Variability (also called spread or dispersion) can be thought of as a measure of how different scores are from one another. It is even more accurate (and maybe even easier) to think of variability as how different scores are from one particular score. And what “score” do you think that might be? Well, instead of comparing each score to every other score in a distribution, the one score that could be used as a comparison is – that is right- the mean. So, variability becomes a measure of how much each score in a group of scores differs from the mean. Remember what you already know about computing averages – that an average (whether it is the mean, the median or the mode) is a representative score in a set of scores. Now, add your new knowledge about variability- that it reflects how different scores are from one another. Each is important descriptive statistic. Together, these two (average and variability) can be used to describe the characteristics of a distribution and show how distribution differ from one another. Measures of dispersion/variability describe how the data in a distribution a re scattered or dispersed around, or from, the central point represented by the measure of central tendency. We will discuss four different measures of dispersion , the range , the mean deviation , the variance , and the standard deviation . RANGE The range is a very simple measure of dispersion to calculate and interpret. The range is simply the difference between the highest score and the lowest score in a distribution. Consider the following distribution that measures the “Age” of a random sample of eight police officers in a small rural jurisdiction. Officer X = Age_ 41 20 35 25 23 30 21 32 First, let’s calculate the mean as our measure of central tendency by adding the individual ages of each officer and dividing by the number of officers. The calculation is 227/8 = 28.375 years. In general, the formula for the range is: R=h-l Where: r is the range h.
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CJ 301 – Measures of Dispersion/Variability Think back to the description of measures of central tendency that describes these statistics as measures of how the data in a distribution are clustered, around what summary measure are most of the data points clustered. But when comes to descriptive statistics and describing the characteristics of a distribution, averages are only half story. The other half is measures of variability. In the most simple of terms, variability reflects how scores differ from one another. For example, the following set of scores shows some variability: 7, 6, 3, 3, 1 The following set of scores has the same mean (4) and has less variability than the previous set: 3, 4, 4, 5, 4 The next set has no variability at all – the scores do not differ from one another – but it also has the same mean as the other two sets we just showed you. 4, 4, 4, 4, 4 Variability (also called spread or dispersion) can be thought of as a measure of how different scores are from one another. It is even more accurate (and maybe even easier) to think of variability as how different scores are from one particular score. And what “score” do you think that might be? Well, instead of comparing each score to every other score in a distribution, the one score that could be used as a comparison is – that is right- the mean. So, variability becomes a measure of how much each score in a group of scores differs from the mean. Remember what you already know about computing averages – that an average (whether it is the mean, the median or the mode) is a representative score in a set of scores. Now, add your new knowledge about variability- that it reflects how different scores are from one another. Each is important descriptive statistic. Together, these two (average and variability) can be used to describe the characteristics of a distribution and show how distribution differ from one another. Measures of dispersion/variability describe how the data in a distribution are scattered or dispersed around, or from, the central point represented by the measure of central tendency. We will discuss four different measures of dispersion, the range, the mean deviation, the variance, and the standard deviation. RANGE The range is a very simple measure of dispersion to calculate and interpret. The range is simply the difference between the highest score and the lowest score in a distribution. Consider the following distribution that measures the “Age” of a random sample of eight police officers in a small rural jurisdiction. Officer X = Age_ 1 41 2 20 3 35 4 25 5 23 6 30 7 21 8 32 First, let’s calculate the mean as our measure of central tendency by adding the individual ages of each officer and dividing by the number of officers. The calculation is 227/8 = 28.375 years. In general, the formula for the range is: R=h-l Where: · r is the range · h is the highest score in the .
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Sheet1Number of Visits Per DayNumber of Status Changes Per WeekAge5138VariableMeanMedianModeRangeVarianceStandard Deviation15527Visits Per Day5121Status Changes Per Week25319Age50525631881024Data from:http://www.statcrunch.com/5.0/index.php?dataid=48537311028331910120114210481032112715118207190040003015526417311219414110320302051325324511851205621301201512053411551933190049543111182120422000520027101013531841219511820194121211811218124202019101018501002230224532050142337205120113331841514102541547319402010019004215320412800401166103145220122910524005032173119206310018212125719152202020002533310025512021332024002000211021002750201031911195718213810002221211532600361010245018511942202149311884185126013220102131371551500561502000285656185136001421471053022211012061352511800422083200212223113715520514520719106211581120332128241328233810540522111122113522632370035108540013761181120104194120004800.52351012128458221911390033321973025114820532022211272514471043405030191111004535281424602019201529105192002010140052342620718212630321120231800401910520151721942221071910719305041200058362143102251237120215119332632193832721356301810519421832351128531931193810221822310127425820234339204183218321900532238105411007519424318102362020171022040283850100292121286143250232319101025121823198204219442831293218203451432143117021181031815418530202521825104010263120101952243325102201511930220114131171051944240065231920220121443015121531851193024757144246203210213125621920275121104319121725104626191048102581181167441643400556320452051182024474181001841192312562481932339525214210494810255132310561312191155013650100181152101910552224191039210043302500560136814151263020107323262260415152124303193061004758108180039103900550050315910322602048404411354020http://www.statcrunch.com/5.0/index.php?dataid=485373 Sheet2 Sheet3 PSYC 354 Excel Homework 3 (70 pts possible) The objective of your third Excel assignment is to learn to describe a data set using measures of central tendency and variability. First, be sure you view the presentation that covers computing central tendency and variability in Excel found in the Reading & Study folder in Module/Week 3. This presentation goes through the steps you will need to be familiar with in order to complete this assignment. In Module/Week 3, the goal is to use Excel formulas to calculate specific measures of central tendency and variability of a given data set, using the steps you learned during the presentation. Open “Data Set 3,” found in the Assignment Instructions folder, under “Excel Homework 3,” then follow the steps below to complete Module/Week 3’s assignment. 1. Research Question: In Module/Week 3, the data comes from an internet survey that assessed the frequency of use of the social networking site Facebook ™. A psychologist interested in time spent visiting a social networking site collected data from 366 respondents concerning: 1.) number of visits to FB per day; 2.) number of times participants changed FB “status” per w.
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Lecture2 Applied Econometrics and Economic Modeling
1.
Statistical Review Measures
of Central Location
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
The Mode
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
Distribution of Shoe
Sizes
14.
Measures of Variability:
Variance and Standard Deviation
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
Interpretation of the
Standard Deviation: Rules of Thumb
25.
26.
27.
28.
Time Series Plot
of Dow Closing Index
29.
Time Series Plot
of Dow Returns
30.
31.
Rules of Thumb
for Dow Jones Data
32.
33.
34.
35.
Obtaining Summary Measures
with Add-Ins
36.
37.
38.
Available Summary Measures
39.
40.
41.
42.
Measures of Association:
Covariance and Correlation
43.
44.
45.
46.
47.
48.
Scatterplot Indicating Positive
Relationship
49.
Scatterplot Indicating Negative
Relationship
50.
51.
52.
Describing Data Sets
with Boxplots
53.
54.
55.
56.
Boxplot Chart
57.
Boxplot Summary Measures
58.
59.
60.
61.
Describing Data Sets
with Boxplots
62.
63.
64.
65.
66.
Actor Data in
Stacked Form
67.
Side-by-Side Boxplot Chart
68.
69.
Applying the Tools
70.
71.
72.
73.
74.
75.
Summary Measures for
Combined Data
76.
Histogram of All
Amounts Owed
77.
Scatterplot of Amount
versus Days for All Customers
78.
Summary Measures Broken
Down by Size
79.
Histogram for Small
Customers
80.
Histogram of Amount
for Medium Customers
81.
Histogram of Amount
for Large Customers
82.
Boxplots of Days
Owed by Different Size Customers
83.
Boxplots of Amounts
Owed by Different Size Customers
84.
Scatterplot of Amount
versus Days for Small Companies
85.
Scatterplot of Amount
versus Days for Medium Companies
86.
Scatterplot of Amount
versus Days for Large Companies
87.
88.
89.
90.
Pivot Tables for
Counts of Customers Who Owe More than $500
91.
92.
93.
94.
95.
96.
97.
Applying the Tools
98.
99.
100.
101.
The Data
102.
103.
104.
Time Series Plot
of Initial Waiting and Arrivals Variables
105.
106.
107.
108.
Average Initial Waiting
by Hour of Day
109.
110.
Average Arrivals by
Time Interval of Days
111.
112.
Scatterplot of Checkers
versus Total Customers
113.
Scatterplot of End
Waiting versus Checkers
114.
115.
116.
117.
Applying the Tools
118.
119.
120.
121.
122.
123.
Scatterplot of Amount
Spent versus Salary
124.
125.
Scatterplot of Amount
Spent versus Catalogs
126.
Scatterplot of Amount
Spent versus Children
127.
128.
Percent of Home
Owners versus Age, Married and Gender
129.
130.
Percent of Married
versus Age, OwnHome and Gender
131.
Average Salary versus
Age, Gender, Married and OwnHome
132.
133.
Percentages in History
Categories versus Children and Close
134.
135.
Catalog Distribution versus
History
136.
137.
Average Amount Spent
versus History, Catalogs and Demographic Variables
138.
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