This presentation explores big data and its growing importance in winning and predicting future elections. In addition to this, controversies surrounding the intense use and analysis of personal data and the transition from viewing voting blocks as groups made of of individuals to individuals who are, by default, part of a group.

1. Big Data
Transforming Elections in the United States
By: Dr. Michael O. Adams
& Subria Lapps

2. Radio, Newspapers, and Television as a thing of the past…
CHANGES IN TRADITIONAL MEDIA

3. Traditional Media Outlets
•
•
•
•
African-American Radio
African-American Newspapers
Direct Mail
Television Ads

4. DIRECT VOTER CONTACT
•
•
•
•
Preachers
Judges
Neighborhood Civic Organizations
Social Clubs

5. New Media
• Social Networks (Twitter, Facebook, Google
Circle, LinkedIn)
• Data Sharing (Photo, Video, etc…)
• Wikis
• Blogs
• Podcasts

6. What are African-American Candidates Up Against in Houston
DEMOGRAPHICS & THE URBAN EXODUS

7. CITY OF HOUSTON BLACK EXODUS TO
• Counties bordering
SUBURBIA
major urban centers
experienced extreme
growth from 2005 to
2006 & from 20092010 during the
housing crisis this
growth was cut in
half
• Cities and densely
populated suburbs
grew significantly
during the late 2000s
• Missouri City
• Pearland
• Sugarland

8. Population
Harris County & Fort Bend County Population Growth 2000-2010
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Harris County
2000
2010
Fort Bend
County
3,400,578
4,092,459
354,452
585,375
Source: U.S Census Quick Facts

9. Population Change
Harris County Population
Change 2000-2010
Harris County
Fort Bend County
Population (%) Change
2000-2010
Fort Bend County
42
79
24
47
Black
White
86
4
White
Hispanic
Black
Hispanic
Source: Census Viewer

10. HOUSTON MAYORAL ELECTIONS
• Mayor Lee Brown (Houston’s 1st AfricanAmerican Mayor was elected in 1997, 1999
and in 2001
• 2001 was the last election before AfricanAmerican voter participation in Houston
elections witnessed a consistent decline
• Elections w/ Black Candidates 2003 Bill White
(v. Sylvester Turner) and 2009 Annise Parker
(v. Gene Locke)

11. What is Happening?
• The turnout model
has changed and
the old outlets and
institutions have
weakened

12. Social Media Engagement and Tracking as a Strategic Core
WHERE DOES BIG DATA COME IN?

13. BIG DATA
• Alistair Croll of O’Reilly Radar:
– "After Eisenhower, you couldn't win an election
without radio. After JFK, you couldn't win an
election without television. After Obama, you
couldn't win an election without social
networking. I predict that in 2012, you won't be
able to win an election without big data."

14. BIG DATA…WHAT IS IT?
Large data sets that include but not limited to:
• Consumer history
• Financial history
• Call centers
• Point-of-sale
• Social networks
• Web Traffic/Patterns

15. DATA MINING IN ELECTIONS
• Specific algorithms are designed to analyze
collected data on voters to predict
– election outcomes
– advertising tactics to promote voter support and
participation (online, door-to-door, phone, mail)
• Looking at voters as distinct individuals and by
default as part of a larger group
• PERSONALIZED PROFILES=PERSONALIZED
MESSAGES
• TAKING RAW DATA AND MAKING IT MAKE SENSE

16. 2012 Elections, President Obama & Big Data
• Targeted Messaging (online/text)
• Volunteer App
• Combining Traditional Phone Interviews w/
New Data Forms to develop algorithms

17. WHAT MATTERS MOST…
Social Media
has the power
to propel any
issue into the
spotlight…
Source: Netapp “Big data and the Election?”

18. AFRICAN AMERICANS & SOCIAL MEDIA
• African Americans use twitter more than any
other demographic group
Source: FacMarlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How
Diverse Is Facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=20592565885
8

19. RUNNING A DATA DRIVEN CAMPAIGN
• Linking everything and mind the data
• In the past, they needed cellphone and email
addresses.
– NOW they have de-emphasized the traditional poll
and realized the increased mobility of younger tech
savvy generations
• T/V ads are broad and most of the population
does not want commercials
– Hard telephone lines are basically dead
– People under the age of 35 do not have hard lines...

20. CHALLENGES
1. African-American churches/ civic organizations are loosing
and will eventually loose their base as communities build
stronger ties in newly migrated suburbs
2. African-American candidates are disconnected from the
diversity that exists across younger Black voters, first time
voters, and undecided voters
3. Running a conventional style campaign cannot survive
demographic changes and a transforming technological
landscape that has reshaped advertising
4. Institutions of African-American radio and readership of
black newspapers are not as strong as they once were

21. LOOKING AHEAD
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
African-American churches, civic organizations, radio, and
newspapers are critical to the Black Communities across Houston
These institutions have to begin appealing to younger
generations, current younger voters, and swing voters across
racial and socio-economic lines (What do youth of the post-Civil
Rights era value?) Gen-X/Gen Y etc…
African-American candidates have to aggressively engage social
media platforms to reach potential voters
African-American candidates have to reform their platforms by
taking an issue based approach as oppose to a race based one
Focus on coalition building with Latinos/Hispanics as Blacks and
Hispanics (they are the least segregated groups in Houston and
surrounding cities/counties)

22. BIG DATA CONCERNS
• Big data also includes the sometimes unethical
gathering and merging of personal information
• Major invasion of privacy without explicit permission
• Selling data on preferences (i.e behaviors survey
houses, businesses, even universities.
• Software that codifies internet
comments/tweets/activities into a
psychological/emotional/political profile

23. Bibliography
Arthur, L. “What Is Big Data”. (August 15, 2013). Retrieved from: http://www.forbes.com/sites/lisaarthur/
2013/08/15/what-is-big-data/
Dannenbaum, K. (August 8, 2012). “What Does Big Data Mean for This Election?”. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/keyadannenbaum/post_2941_b_1263802.html
Frey, H. W. (2012). Metro America since 1980: Putting the Volatile 2000s in Perspective. Brookings Institute. Retrieved from:
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2012/3/20%20population%20frey/ 0320_population_frey.pdf
King, Bill. (March 9, 2013). Houston Chronicle http://www.chron.com/default/article/Decline-in-voter-turnout-may-be-handicap-to-Hall4342798.php
Issenberg, S. (December 19, 2012). “How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters.” Retrieved
from: http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/509026/how-obamas-team-used-big- data-to-rally-voters/
Leah, C. Scott, K., Purcell, K. et al Smith, A. (2010). Assessing the Cell Phone Challenge. Pew Research Center. Retrieved from:
http://www.pewresearch.org/2010/05/20/assessing-the-cell-phone-challenge/
Marlow, Cameron. (December 16, 2009). How Diverse Is Facebook. http://www.facebook.com/note.php?
note_id=205925658858
Szkolar, D. (January 24, 2013). Data Mining in Obama’s 2012 Victory. Syracuse University. Retrieved from: http://
infospace.ischool.syr.edu/2013/01/24/data-mining-in-obamas-2012-victory/