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The panel was similar to the mix of people attending these workshops and included librarians, library and information experts and academics, educators, library campaigners, senior public service managers and politicians, people from cultural organisations and from charities. The panel were asked about statements describing how things might look in 10 years’ time, as a result of societal, economic and technological changes; statements like: Consumers habitually use portable devices to gain immediate access to digital products England continues to have an ageing population The demand on public services continues to outstrip supply For each statement we asked the panel members “how likely is the statement to be true in 10 years’ time?” and “how much impact would it have on libraries?”. Not going to cover all the findings from the trend and the Delphi today as there is lots… only have 20 minutes! So remainder of my slot will focus on those trends that the Delphi panel thought were most likely and would have the biggest impact…
Income distribution remains remarkably unequal Lower income quintiles are heavily dependent on state support After reaching a peak in mid-1990s child poverty has declined, but early progress has tailed off and the numbers in poverty are starting to rise once more … a long-term upward trend in the proportion of households experiencing overcrowding in both the social and private rented sectors – as many as 1 in 4 in London Research suggests that consequences of living in poverty (such as overcrowding) can lead to further issues for the future of children’s education and development Delphi points to an increasing expectation that children and young people will require space they can use outside of the family home or school
Ipsos MORI: Report Title Majority passive recipients of services… even fewer in reality will engage
Emphasise this draws on Ipsos MORI Public Services Trust research Use of online government services has been increasing, but use of specific services remains low 57% have used at least one or more, but 43% have not used any government service online Among users, 40% have done so to get information on a central government service and 38% to get information about local services
In 2012 tablet computers (such as the iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab) added 'shopping basket' of items making up the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) for the first time, as are teenage fiction to reflect spending on these items
Challenge for industry as media content struggles to retain a sense of value – experimentation with new models, e.g. ‘freemium’ (free basic plus paid premium content), subscriptions, micropayments, e-commerce opportunities and delivery via new mobile devices such as the iPad
More likely to be older and from lower social economic groups People with higher educational attainment are more likely to have access to the internet Dramatic differentials in internet usage by age (which will moderate over time) In 2008, 70% of those aged 65 and over had never used the internet, compared to 33% of 45-54 year olds, and fewer than 1% 16-24 year olds 2 While public access points are not frequent sources of help (with the internet), libraries are the exception, particularly for those on low incomes
Envisioning the library of the future
1 Envisioning the library of the future May 2012Canada Water Library, London, 2012.Photo: Michael Cameron Photography
2WelcomeArts Council EnglandShared Intelligence
Introduction 3• October 2011 - Arts Council England assumes responsibility for museums and libraries• changing landscape: looking at libraries services from 2022• Envisioning the library of the future: developing a long- term vision• four elements of the research – Shared Intelligence and Ipsos Mori• your input will help us to shape our visionJoin the online conversation at http://librariesconversation.wordpress.com/and on Twitter using #ACElibraries