Envisioning the library of the future
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Envisioning the library of the future

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Presentation from workshops held across the country in May 2012 for Envisioning the library of the future, our programme of research and debate www.artscouncil.org.uk

Presentation from workshops held across the country in May 2012 for Envisioning the library of the future, our programme of research and debate www.artscouncil.org.uk

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  • The panel was similar to the mix of people attending these workshops and included librarians, library and information experts and academics, educators, library campaigners, senior public service managers and politicians, people from cultural organisations and from charities. The panel were asked about statements describing how things might look in 10 years’ time, as a result of societal, economic and technological changes; statements like: Consumers habitually use portable devices to gain immediate access to digital products England continues to have an ageing population The demand on public services continues to outstrip supply   For each statement we asked the panel members “how likely is the statement to be true in 10 years’ time?” and “how much impact would it have on libraries?”. Not going to cover all the findings from the trend and the Delphi today as there is lots… only have 20 minutes! So remainder of my slot will focus on those trends that the Delphi panel thought were most likely and would have the biggest impact…
  • Income distribution remains remarkably unequal Lower income quintiles are heavily dependent on state support After reaching a peak in mid-1990s child poverty has declined, but early progress has tailed off and the numbers in poverty are starting to rise once more … a long-term upward trend in the proportion of households experiencing overcrowding in both the social and private rented sectors – as many as 1 in 4 in London Research suggests that consequences of living in poverty (such as overcrowding) can lead to further issues for the future of children’s education and development Delphi points to an increasing expectation that children and young people will require space they can use outside of the family home or school
  • Ipsos MORI: Report Title Majority passive recipients of services… even fewer in reality will engage
  • Emphasise this draws on Ipsos MORI Public Services Trust research Use of online government services has been increasing, but use of specific services remains low 57% have used at least one or more, but 43% have not used any government service online Among users, 40% have done so to get information on a central government service and 38% to get information about local services
  • In 2012 tablet computers (such as the iPad and Samsung Galaxy Tab) added 'shopping basket' of items making up the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) for the first time, as are teenage fiction to reflect spending on these items
  • Challenge for industry as media content struggles to retain a sense of value – experimentation with new models, e.g. ‘freemium’ (free basic plus paid premium content), subscriptions, micropayments, e-commerce opportunities and delivery via new mobile devices such as the iPad
  • More likely to be older and from lower social economic groups People with higher educational attainment are more likely to have access to the internet Dramatic differentials in internet usage by age (which will moderate over time) In 2008, 70% of those aged 65 and over had never used the internet, compared to 33% of 45-54 year olds, and fewer than 1% 16-24 year olds 2 While public access points are not frequent sources of help (with the internet), libraries are the exception, particularly for those on low incomes

Envisioning the library of the future Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 1 Envisioning the library of the future May 2012Canada Water Library, London, 2012.Photo: Michael Cameron Photography
  • 2. 2WelcomeArts Council EnglandShared Intelligence
  • 3. Introduction 3• October 2011 - Arts Council England assumes responsibility for museums and libraries• changing landscape: looking at libraries services from 2022• Envisioning the library of the future: developing a long- term vision• four elements of the research – Shared Intelligence and Ipsos Mori• your input will help us to shape our visionJoin the online conversation at http://librariesconversation.wordpress.com/and on Twitter using #ACElibraries
  • 4. 4 Version - FINAL | Internal Use OnlyIpsos MORI and Shared IntelligenceResearch findings: the story so far… May 2012© Ipsos MORI
  • 5. Introduction 5Running alongside an innovation review…• A rapid evidence review of major societal, economic and technological trends• A Delphi Enquiry to test possible impact of these on libraries• Inform the debate about what society might look like in 10 years time…• … and the impact, if any, this could have on libraries• Ensure this debate is grounded in the evidence• Encourage us to move away from the immediate issues, and to the future• Draw on the findings to develop and then test a series of ‘scenarios’© Ipsos MORI
  • 6. The rapid evidence review 6• Review available evidence to help inform a debate about what society might look like in 10 years time and the impact, if any, this could have on libraries• Draws on latest available data from Ipsos MORI and wider publicly available sources pertinent to the debate (ONS, national surveys, etc.)• Focuses on ‘high level’ issues • … while aiming for as much coverage as possible: population, community and society; future public service delivery; households and families; economy, work, consumer behaviour; poverty and inequality; young people in society; engagement and participation; technology, reading and literacy• Time constraints - it is not intended to provide extensive coverage of all relevant data sources© Ipsos MORI
  • 7. The Delphi Enquiry 7• Involves asking a panel of experts to consider a series of statements or propositions about how the country might look in 10 years time, drawing on the trends review• Test c. 50 statements – how likely they are and will there be an impact on libraries?• Two waves of an online survey over March and April • Second wave allows us to establish how views change, diverge or converge• 41% and 30% response rate, from c. 200 invited The key headline trends found to be most relevant to the debate were as follows…© Ipsos MORI
  • 8. A growing and changing population 8• In 2010 there were 62.3 million people living in the UK - by 2020 it will be 67.2 million…• Our population is ageing • 65+ and 85+ age groups growing fastest - “oldest old” (over 85 years) growing faster than any other age • Matched with a fall in proportion of under 16s • Implications for old age support ratios (fewer people of working age for every person of state pension age)… • … not to mention demand for informal care from families/ communities, and the demand on public services – potentially outstripping supply• And is becoming increasingly diverse • 89% define themselves as white, but varies significantly by area • Net migration into the UK accounted for 62% of population growth between 2001 and 2008 Source: ONS, UK population predicted to reach 70 million by mid 2027, 2011 ONS Pension Trends, February 2012 Cabinet Office, Realising Britain’s Potential: Future Strategic Challenges for Britain. 2008 1ESDS, Integrated Household Survey, 2010/11 2 ONS, Social Trends, 40 2010© Ipsos MORI
  • 9. But, at the same time concerns remain around povertyand inequality… 9Over the next ten years, poverty will... Source: Nat Cen, British Social Attitudes 28, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 10. Negative outlook for the economy continues 10• GDP growth in the UK was positive in 2010, but among the lowest of the G8 nations• Central government debt (as a % of GDP) has increased dramatically • Figures to 2009 show UK middling among the G8 nations• We have lost more than a decade in wage growth. In the best scenario, pay would rise back to its pre-recession peak before the end of the decade• Inflationary pressures have outstripped wage growth in the last year, reducing purchasing power• According to Mintel, the three most important factors that affected consumer wellbeing in 2011 were rising retail prices (29% ranked it number one), increased costs of utilities (22%) and rising prices of petrol (21%) Source: OBR, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, 2011 IMF Spectator, Are we facing an American nightmare, 2011 Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and Fiscal Outlook, March 2012 Mintel, British Lifestyles: The Consumer, August 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 11. The public remains pessimistic – 7 in 10 cite the economy as the most important issue facing Britain today 11 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? Economy Race / immigration Unemployment Crime/ NHS Law & OrderBase: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI, Issues Index, 2012© Ipsos MORI
  • 12. Unemployment has continued to rise, along with public pessimism – public sector particularly hard hit 12 Year Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index and ONS Labour force survey© Ipsos MORI
  • 13. Like the public at large, public sector leaders are pessimistic about the economy – although least so in local government 13Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve,stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Don’t know 2% Improve Get worse Results by sector Stay the same All Loc. Cen. Hlth Edu NDPB Gov Gov Net -27 -18 -35 -29 -33 -28 optimismBase: 338 Public Sector Leaders, 27 June – 22 July 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI, Public sector leaders survey, 2011 © Ipsos MORI
  • 14. Presents huge challenges for public service delivery 14• Funding/grants and budget cuts continue to be viewed as the most important issue facing the sector, by the sector• Government looking to reduce the scale of public sector borrowing: • October 2010 Spending Review indicated that, on average, central government funding to local authorities will decrease by 26% over the next four years, much of which has been front-loaded • Over this period budgets are expected to decrease by around 14% (taking into account projections for council tax) • The sector expects more of the same post 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI, Public Sector Leaders Survey, 2011 DCLG, Local Gov Financial Statistics, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 15. Playing to the British public’s sense of fairness, public prioritisesthe protection of services for those who need them most 15 15 Which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the deficit? Neither Don’t knowThe only way for the government toreduce the deficit is to cut spending on all services, even if that includes services that are mainly used by people who most need help The government’s priority should be to protect services for people who most need help, even if that means that other people are harder hit by tax rises and cuts to the services they use Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18th-20th June 2010 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters, Political Monitor, 2010 © Ipsos MORI
  • 16. Public expects to pay more and get less 16Q: Do you think the following will increase, reduce or stay the same in thenext financial year (April 2011)? Reduce Stay the same Increase Don’t know The level of council tax you pay 3% The amount of money the council receives from government to provide services 5% The range of services the council offers 3% The quality of services the council offers 3% The value for money you receive from the council for the services it offers 3%Base: 1,002 GB adults 18+ interviewed by telephone Source: LG Insight/Populus, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 17. Means that some local authority services aren’t a priority forprotection 17 17 Which TWO or THREE, if any, of the following main areas of public spending do you think should be protected from any cuts? The NHS/health care Schools Care for the elderly The Police Social services Defence Benefit payments Local authority services Overseas aid None of these Don’t know Base: All who think some services should be protected (773), June 2009 Source: Ipsos MORI Public Spending Index, 2009© Ipsos MORI
  • 18. A push towards localism? The changing face of publicservice delivery… 18• Government push to allow councils greater control over how they spend grants and raise revenue, allowing them to focus on local priorities and respond to local needs• View that communities are best placed to find the best solutions to local needs and that local public services should be more accountable to local peopleWhere does the public sit on this?• People are in favour of greater local control in principle – but are concerned about fairness• We want flexibility, responsiveness and other desirable features, but are unwilling to countenance risks to the ‘safety net’• Fairness is also key, but it’s not straightforward – different meanings • Uniform provision vs. Minimum standards vs. Looking after ‘deserving’ vulnerable Source: DCLG, A plain English guide to the Local Government Finance Settlement for 2011-12, 2011 The Coalition: Our programme for government, 2010 Ipsos MORI/2020, Public Services Trust, 2010© Ipsos MORI
  • 19. But, is it realistic to rely on local communities mobilising? 19 Levels of involvement/ interest in involvement in local services Already involved (4%) Want active involvement (5%) 1.5m people Want more of a say And 7.2m people 24% 47% Just want information 16% Don’t careBase: 1,896 GB adults, 18+. Sept 2008 Source: Ipsos MORI, 2008 © Ipsos MORI
  • 20. Likely to see increasingly new and diverging forms ofpublic sector service delivery 20• Sharing services to achieve greater efficiency and improvements, with councils delivering services jointly• Improving procurement practices and cutting “waste”, particularly back office (e.g. finance, IT, HR, procurement, payroll)• Greater emphasis on (cheaper) online services• Local communities taking over public assets• More fees and charges for services • Strong opposition to user charging, especially for core services e.g. GP • But, are those who can see advantages – in particular, higher earners and infrequent users of public services• Outsourcing • General support for greater involvement from the voluntary and private sectors – especially in non-core services – but some need to be convinced • But, at same time volunteering levels declining Source:1 DCLG, A plain English guide to the Local Government Finance Settlement for 2011-12, 2011 2 Ipsos MORI/2020 Public Services Trust, 2010 Ipsos MORI/DCLG, Citizenship Survey, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 21. At same time, need to consider how consumer behaviour ischanging 21• Consumers have more choice and power than ever before – fuelled by growing use of technology • Used to constant innovation, can get bored easily and are less loyal • Are comfortable with using a wide range of online sources to research their purchases and track down the best deals and services (e.g. through price comparison sites and online reviews from other users)• Will not only expect to be able to access information 24 hours a day, but also make requests for it• Will expect personalised services accessible via their mobile phones• … significant implications for public services Source; ONS, Social Trends Index, 41, 2011 Moxie, 2012 Trends Report, 2012 Mintel, Empowered Consumer – UK – September 2010Moxie, 2012 Trends Report, 2012 McCann Eriksson, Britain 2012 Owner’s Workshop, 2012© Ipsos MORI
  • 22. “Down time” being seen as an increasingly valuedcommodity 22• We are working more than we did 20 years ago… • Since 1981 two-adult households have added six hours – nearly a whole working day – to their combined weekly workload• On-the-go technology, mobile broadband and high speed internet has conditioned the idea that we must always be connected and reachable• At the same time, changing family dynamics… • Increasingly families seeking and creating opportunities to spend more time together, preferably in the home • Today’s parents spend an average of 99 minutes a day engaging with their children compared with 25 minutes in the 1970s Source: Ipsos MORI, UK Trends & Futures, Family & the Good Life, 2010 Department of Children, Schools and Families, National Survey of Parents and Children - Family Life, Aspirations and Engagement with Learning, 2008 European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions, Fourth European Working Conditions Survey, 2007 Mintel Inspire FSTR and HYPR, April 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 23. … leading to a desire for a slower pace of life – the majorityof us want more time to rest or do nothing at all 23To what extent do you agree or disagree that...?Base: Individuals aged 16 to 64 in 4 European countries Source: Ipsos Le Slow, May 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 24. Much of this is being fuelled by the growth of technology,which is set to continue 24• People are becoming more rather than less enamored with new technology… • 8 in 10 homes now have a computer • Sales of Smartphones outpacing sales of desktops and laptops • Even reflected in Consumer Prices Index and Retail Prices Index shopping basket’ • 9 out of 10 marketers use social media to promote their business• A mobile revolution… • One of the fastest growing platforms in the world • Seen as the door to the future – an efficient way to find information (news, local events), keep in touch and save time • Almost 4 in 10 (38%) now access the internet via their mobile phone Source: Ipsos MORI, Tech Tracker, 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/13/teenage-fiction-ipads-inflation-basket http://www.digitalbuzzblog.com/facebook-statistics-stats-facts-2011 http://www.mediabistro.com/alltwitter/social-networking-2011_b12969© Ipsos MORI
  • 25. The internet is changing the way we consume information 25• The internet appears to have low impact on reading than when compared with watching television, for example• But, if asked directly, some users think that the internet has decreased the time they spend reading newspapers (17%) and books (18%)• Reading of online newspapers or news services has been increasing, but appears to now be stabilising (30% 2007; 57% 2009; 55% 2011) Source: Oxford University, OxIS, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 26. The rise of e-publishing and ‘pay walls’ – the end ofbooks as we know them? 26• E-publishing is expanding and looks set to stay… • E-book sales rose by 623% between January and June last year • Almost 1.4 million e-readers were sold in the UK over Christmas 2011, double the amount sold in 2010 • Most UK publishers believe that books will be published in both electronic and paper form by 2016• But, 2 in 3 still think that e-publishing will not displace other forms - instead will just lead to a growth in the market• A rise of paywalls • Growing readership of online national newspaper sites presents challenge for industry as media content struggles to retain a sense of value • 3 in 4 readers are currently unwilling to pay anything for online newspapers/ magazines Source: BML, Publishing 2001: attitudes to technological change, 2011 http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/feb/23/times-digital-subscriptions-double-price Mintel, Paid-For vs Free - Consumer Attitudes to Pricing in Media and Music - UK - April 2010 Nielsen BookScan, 2012 Publishers Association, 2012 /© Ipsos MORI
  • 27. Technology is particularly impacting on how childrenand young people consume information 27• “Kids definition of reading is changing in the Digital Age: one in four kids think texting with friends counts as reading” (Scholastic)• But, could technology actually be a positive motivator to get kids reading? • 57% of children (age 9-17) say they are interested in reading an eBook • A third of children age 9-17 say they would read more books for fun if they had access to eBooks on an electronic device• Children still do embrace printed books • 66% of 9 – 17 year olds agree with the statement "Ill always want to read books printed on paper even though there are ebooks available”• Children today have to know how to handle far more information than their parents did when they were children, but is this at the expense of critical thinking? • 39% of 9-17 year olds agree with the statement “the information I find online is always correct" Source: Scholaastic/ Harrison Group, 2010 Kids and Families Reading Report, 2010© Ipsos MORI
  • 28. Multimedia and online communication form the bulk of whatyoung people are reading outside school nowadays 28Which of these do you read outside of class, at least once a month? Source: National Literary Trust. Annual Survey into young people’s reading, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 29. But, 1 in 4 still not using internet – reinforcing thedigital divide 29 % Accessing the internet by gender and social grade in 2011 All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Males 84 94 92 93 83 81 58 Males AB 95 100 100 98 100 97 78 Males C1 90 95 99 95 91 89 66 Males C2 78 93 90 83 83 82 45 Internet access Males DE 68 92 82 86 55 43 33 80-100% 50-79% All 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 0-49% Females 78 94 94 90 87 77 41 Females AB 90 100 100 98 95 92 62 Females C1 87 100 96 94 95 84 51 Females C2 79 94 95 93 90 77 32 Females DE 56 79 88 73 54 47 24 Source: Oxford University, OxIS, 2011 Base: 4,003 GB adults aged 15+: Jan/Apr/July/ November 2011 Ipsos MORI, Tech Tracker, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 30. So what does all this mean for libraries? 30• Libraries are not immune to these societal, economic and technological trends…• … but what does it all mean for them going forward?• Many are adapting to, and embracing, these developments, as our innovation review shows…• In addition, we should think about the “library-specific” context … Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010 DCMS, Taking Part Survey, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 31. What role for libraries? 31• In 2010/11 39% of adults said they had visited a library in the last 12 months• Fewer visit libraries each year now than five years ago (down from 48.2% in 2005/6)• Non-users get books and information elsewhere, as other sources seen as more convenient (especially online)• The public library brand is strong, but awareness of libraries’ offer is low: • The public thinks libraries are mainly about books and reading, as well as access to computers and the internet Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010 DCMS, Taking Part Survey, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 32. Technology is a large driver of reasons for not visiting… 32• What are your main reasons for if any,libraries/library services? What are your main reasons, using for not using public libraries (nowadays)? Top 10 mentions I prefer to buy books from a shop/ online I’m too busy Nothing of interest to me Have the internet at home/ no need to use the library I don’t like reading My nearest library is too far away/not convenient Internet gives better access to information/ more convenient Opening hours aren’t long enough Difficulty getting to the library Prefer to go somewhere else, e.g. coffee shops/bookshops Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010 Base: People who say they used to be library users or who have never been (470) © Ipsos MORI
  • 33. But, a wider public attachment to libraries, even amongnon-users 33How important or unimportant do you think public libraries are as a service tothe community? Current users Essential Very important Fairly important Lapsed users Not very important Not important at all Non-users 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010Base: Al respondents (1,102)© Ipsos MORI
  • 34. And libraries are seen as a social leveler – even moreimportant in the current climate? 34• In the current climate, there is cross party agreement that other services should be preserved ahead of libraries… BUT…• Libraries reach across the social spectrum• An asset, particularly in building partnerships with other services• Important in bringing communities together – places where people from different backgrounds and ages can meet• Role in supporting learning, among children and adults• While public access points are not frequent sources of help with the internet, libraries are the exception, particularly for those on low incomes• Research shows that most people think they need to remain free • Part of their important social role • Although some say they would be willing to pay (more) for specific services Source: National Literacy Trust, Literacy: State of the Nation A picture of literacy in the UK today, 2012 Ipsos MORI/MLA, What do the public want from libraries, 2010 Oxford University, OxIS, 2011© Ipsos MORI
  • 35. 35 Version - FINAL | Internal Use OnlyThe story on innovation… May 2012© Ipsos MORI
  • 36. Innovation: how libraries are responding to trends andpressures 36Why review innovation?•Some answers to future challenges are being found now•Informs the scenariosWhat we looked for:•More than ‘good practice’ or ‘good examples’•New methods, ideas, services, products© Ipsos MORI
  • 37. Innovation in the entire library service(everything at once) 37 • Huge investments, can’t be done everywhere, but innovations can be transferred (Birmingham, Newcastle, Manchester, Delft) • Future focused: social spaces, wider cultural offer, sustainable buildings, entrepreneurial partnerships • Digital focused: building e-readership and digi-skills, digitising unique items, linking catalogues© Ipsos MORI
  • 38. Innovation in individual parts of the service(incremental, lots of examples) 38• Reader development to support mental well-being (Reading Cure, The Reader Org)• Peer-to-peer lending and sharing (book-shares, book-crossing)• “Doorstep libraries” (community development meets librarianship)• Providing access to expensive technology (e.g. make-it- yourself/3D printing)• Connecting school and public libraries (e.g. Shout About)• Promoting library use through social games, social cataloguing and discovery (QR codes, hidden messages)© Ipsos MORI
  • 39. Innovation in funding models 39 • Alternatives to the 100% tax-funded model: • Service-specific community levies (e.g. Queens Park, Denver USA) • Programmes to generate donations from public and users (e.g. Delft means-tested membership model) • Fundraising from major donors (e.g. Manchester fundraising arm) • Plus: shared and multi-purpose spaces, merged or shared management, contracting out etc© Ipsos MORI
  • 40. Individual libraries adopting more distinctive definitionsof their purpose 40• Creating community history• Information literacy• Supporting innovation and enterprise• Bridging languages• Social mission/social justice© Ipsos MORI
  • 41. Innovation in the professional role 41 • Updating the librarianship curriculum • Peer networks of next generation librarians • Community development explicit part of the role© Ipsos MORI
  • 42. Innovation in the library systems 42 • Joining up catalogues across multiple local authorities (Libraries West, London Libraries Consortium) • Open-source cataloguing/Wikipedia type approaches© Ipsos MORI
  • 43. Applying the concept of “public library” in new, useful, ways 43• Public spaces: airports, stations• Libraries in un-used spaces• Living-book library© Ipsos MORI
  • 44. One more trend 44 • Bookends library futures, New South Wales - how a public library service in New South Wales might look in 2030. • Reimagining New Yorks Public Libraries - action research developing and testing adult and youth educational programmes in the Achieve @ NYPL programme • Academic libraries of the future - led by the British Library • Future of Dutch Public Libraries - looked 10 years ahead – influenced Dutch Library School • The state of America’s Libraries - American Library Association – issues around digital, budgets and censorship (e.g. Fifty Shades of Grey) • The Carnegie Trust library futures - Carnegie ‘re-engages’ with libraries and social value • Pew Centre, American Life project – looking at libraries through several studies supported by the Bill and and Melinda Gates© Ipsos MORI
  • 45. 45 … so over to you! Version - FINAL | Internal Use OnlyThank you… any questions?For further information contact victoria.harkness@ipsos.com or May 2012ben.lee@sharedintelligence.net© Ipsos MORI
  • 46. 46 Version - FINAL | Internal Use OnlyFour stories about the year 2022… May 2012© Ipsos MORI
  • 47. 47 Scenario 1 •public spending geared more towards those most in need •more fees and charges for services, more freedom for councils •more services delivered by commercial organisations, more done by volunteers •online social interaction influences social attitudes, •public wifi is commonplace© Ipsos MORI
  • 48. 48 Scenario 1: For richer or for poorer The year 2022, small town in South Devon Dev and Nina moved to the town because of the new local ‘levies’ they have introduced to support community services. Locals have now voted-in a series of these new charges, most of which began as online campaigns. Each one pays for a specific service. The children’s activity centre was first, then free local buses (Dev now works for the company who runs them - it is expanding fast), and most recently the town’s superfast public wifi. Nina became a local councillor four years ago. The council’s income has fallen every year, while demands on services grow and grow. Anything which can be automated has been (even parking fines are worked out by sensors instead of traffic wardens). But Nina has led two of the most controversial changes in policy. One was the introduction of means-tested charges for almost all council services. The other was to create a new department of volunteering specialists which now manages hundreds of unpaid locals doing everything from the bins, to providing personal care for the elderly. It has been a hard introduction to local politics, but Nina is proud of what she has helped shape. Her party has just retained power on the council. Nina believes this shows the public recognise the situation here is better than elsewhere, where services have simply shut and attempts at reform and increased volunteering have been badly handled.© Ipsos MORI
  • 49. 49 Scenario 2 •more people work from home •parents and guardians require childcare from a network of carers and family •mobile devices are primary means of accessing information of any kind, information is consumed is short bite-sized chunks, •more online content is behind a pay-wall, images displacing written text© Ipsos MORI
  • 50. 50 Scenario 2: This digital life The year 2022, suburban village in Leicestershire Michael works from home; freelancing for an inquiry centre. Today he is responding to customer web-queries on behalf of a supermarket. For each query he searches out an answer, then dictates his reply. He gets paid per reply; more if the customer rates his answer ‘helpful’. His wife Summer does the same, but also sells her own photography, earning micropayments when her images are used. They take turns to take care of their three-year old daughter. Sure, the work is a bit dull, but it’s flexible and if you are fast at compiling answers then the pay is alright. The couple sometimes have PictureNews on in the background when they are working. They like the international editorial slant. There’s no talking or text ribbons, just photos and videos showing the day’s headlines from around the world. It also works out cheaper than the domestic channels, as you only pay for what you watch. Overall the family feel content. They are not well-off, but are well-educated and feel informed, and in-the-know. They can afford the latest web technology which makes life easier, simpler, means they can work from home, and makes Summer’s photography side- line possible. A large print of one of Summer’s photos, a self-portrait, rests on the floor in the hallway, but she has to move it as their daughter keeps trying to “pinch” and “swipe” it like the images on a screen.© Ipsos MORI
  • 51. 51 Scenario 3 •aging population, England more ethnically diverse, demands on services outstrip supply •public spending in decline •Councils joining up and merging, more discretion to raise revenue locally, more services delivered by commercial organisations •pockets of population lack internet skills, 10% do not use online resources either through choice or lack of access© Ipsos MORI
  • 52. 52 Scenario 3: Off the grid The year 2022, outskirts of Manchester Eleanor lives on her own. The house was brand new when she bought it and a few original neighbours are still around. Her immediate neighbours, all young, all with children, and all from overseas, are friendly enough but she doesn’t have much in common with them. They probably worry about the effect her dilapidated property has on the rest of the street, and have surely worked out she doesn’t have an account with the security patrol company either. She never meant to opt out of everything, but that’s where she finds herself. She declined refuse collection when they started charging, and takes her bin bags to the collection site herself (or quickly pushes them into litter bins on the high street). She gave up her data service as she barely watched anything or did anything online anyway. She uses a mobile to keep in touch with family and has never had any messaging accounts; even when she worked she somehow managed to avoid email. Being off the grid can be frustrating for her, but not half as frustrating as it seems to be for her bank, the hospital, and myriad other agencies who fail to understand how she can survive offline. As for the stack of admin charges and fines owed (for missed medical appointments, payments, and personal information she has failed to provide ) she is confident none of these distant, over-stretched, bureaucracies stand any risk of tracking her down before she herself has long departed.© Ipsos MORI
  • 53. 53 Scenario 4 •median wages have remained stagnant, more people work from home •public expect all services to be accessible the instant they need them •use of portable digital devices is habitual •reading for pleasure remains one of the most popular pastimes •more demand for self-led learning and remote learning© Ipsos MORI
  • 54. 54 Scenario 4: A fresh start The year 2022, northwest London It’s 8am on a Saturday and Daniel’s a man with a plan. He’s about to finish another book. Like most of what he’s read this past year, it’s about Italy. He highlights useful references in the final chapter and makes a few notes. His big idea is - catering with a twist. He won’t just visit clients’ homes and cook a menu, he’ll teach them about the food’s background, maybe suggest a novel or film set in the region. His marketing blurb promises to “impart passion, as well as sustenance”. He is also cramming for his business planning and marketing course, but the next task today is getting certified for food safety. He has decided to pay extra for a preparatory webchat. He connects into the service and within a few seconds a face appears and an official greets him. Daniel talks the official through what he is showing him – electrics, storage, fridge, cooker, oven, waste and hand-washing. The official suggests some changes, but also helpfully explains that just from this first session Daniel has already cleared five of the 20 mandatory steps to certification. It’s hard work launching his first ever business but Daniel relishes it because he’ll finally regain control and be doing something he loves. If he’s lucky it will also re-fill his retirement plan. Even with thirty years’ experience in media, his last three fixed-term jobs paid less each time, and each involved several weeks of no work in-between.© Ipsos MORI
  • 55. 55 … so back to you! Version - FINAL | Internal Use Only May 2012© Ipsos MORI