May 16 in Parallel Session 3E "Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods & More: Dealing with Natural Disasters". Presented by A. Atiq Rahman, BCAS.

1. Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and
Cyclones
BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES
House 10, Road 16A, Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh
Phone: 8818214-7, 9851234, 9852904; Fax: 9851417
Website: www.bcas.net
Dr. Atiq Rahman
Executive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS)
Founding Chairman: Climate Action Network – South Asia (CANSA)
Visiting Professor: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University and Harvard
University, Boston, MA, USA
IFPRI 2020 Conference on Building Resilience for Food and
Nutrition Security
Date: 15-17 May, 2014
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

2. Outline of the presentation
1. Bangladesh: Most vulnerable country
2. Extreme Events: Climate Impacts
3. Cyclones: A Case Study
4. Floods: A Case Study
5. Responses: By Communities

3. CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BANGLADESH
VULNERABILITY
1. Sea Level Rise
2. Cyclone (Intensity & Frequency)
3. Deeper Penetration of Saline Water
4. Erratic Rainfall
5. Flood (Intensity & Frequency)
6. Drought
7. River Bank Erosion
8. Health
9. Food Security
10. Water Security
11. Land slide in CHT
12. Migration

4. Relief Map of South Asia
http://www.flickr.com/photos/ocean_of_stars/2785428699/sizes/o/in/photostream/
Nepal
India
Myanmar
Pakistan

5. Bangladesh occupies a unique geographic location spanning a stretch of land between
the mighty Himalayan mountain chain on the north and the open ocean on the south. It
is virtually the only drainage outlet for a vast river basin complex made up of the Ganges,
Brahmaputra and the Meghna and their network.

6. The Complex River Systems
1. Unique geographical location
2. Dominance of flood plain
3. Himalayan drainage eco-system
Water Tower
Water Sink

7. The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous
affects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality
throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well.
Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia

8. Extreme Events: Global

9. Earth quake
Tsunami
Volcanic Eruption
Flood & River Erosion
Cyclone
Drought
Land slide
Heat/Cold waves
Sea Level Rise and Salinity
Intrusion
NaturalHazards
ExtremeClimaticEvents
Climate Change Related
Tectonic
Types of hazards

10. How Climate Change Increases Risk
 Changes in the magnitude,
coverage and frequency of climatic
extremes
 Changes in average climatic
conditions and climate variability,
affecting underlying risk factors
 Generates new threats, which a
region may have no or little
experience in dealing with.
10

11. Climatic Extreme Events
Temperature rise and heatwaves in China, Russia,
Mongolia, Korea, Japan, India and South East Asia
Increased and erratic rainfall induced frequent floods
in Bangladesh, India, China and South East Asia
Cyclones and Typhoons in South Asia, Bangladesh,
India, Philippines, Japan and China
11

12. Climatic Extreme Events
Number of recorded
disasters doubled
globally from
approximately 200
to over 400 per year
in the past two
decades
Nine out of 10
disasters are now
climate related
Sea level rise and salinity in South
Asia, Bangladesh, India, Maldives,
Sri Lanka, Indonesia and SEA
Droughts in South Asia including
India and Bangladesh, South East
Asia, China and Mongolia

13. Source: Swiss Re sigma Catastrophe database: Include floods, storms, droughts, forest fires, cold wave & frost, hail and other
Change in Frequency of Hazard Event
13

14. 14

15. Global cost of weather extreme events is increasing
to a great extent
15

16. Number of houses damaged per million people per year
(using 21 datasets)
Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011, UNISDR
16

17. Global Cyclones Incidence and Intensity
17

18. Extreme Events: Bangladesh

20. Hazard Class Map
Ranking of multi-hazard maps used for
preparing the risk-index :
 Cyclone ( high risk-5, risk-3,wind risk- 1)
 Flood (Severely flooded due to major
river floods – 3, flash flood due to major
river-2, other flood-1)
 Riverbank erosion(severe erosion-2,
erosion -1)
 Drought (very severe drought prone
areas – 2, severe drought-1)

21. SeaLevelRise

22. Cyclone

23. Saline Zone of Bangladesh

24. ErraticRainfall

25. Flood
Flood 2004

26. Flood Frequency
Flooded
Area
Return period (Years)
2 5 10 20 25 50 100
Area
affected %
20 30 37 43 52 60 70
Last 30
years
5 3 2 2
Last 10
years
3 2 1 1
Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences
in Last 30 Years
For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already
occurred twice during the last 10 years.

27. EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION,
AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075
EXISTING DROUGHT
DROUGHT CLASSES (KHARIF SEASON)
Very Severe Drought
Severe Drought
Moderate Drought
Less Moderate Drought
Slight Drought
Very Slight to Nil
Severe & Moderate
Moderate & Less Moderate
Sunderbans
Forest
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2030
ADDITIONAL DROUGHT
PRONE AREAS IN 2075

28. RiverBankErosion

29. Health
Source: IPCC AR4, 2007

30. Migration
Source: IPCC AR4, 2007
Internal initially
External later
No one wants to leave their land
Global justice: Issues of migration
Human rights: Issues of migration
Migration already happening
Strategic dimension of migration

32. Key Climate Change Stresses and Impacts on
CHT
• Hills support sub-ecosystems
which are rich in species and
biodiversity
• These give livelihood supports
to the hilly people
• Key stresses in CHT
– Temperature rise
– Erratic rainfall
– Extreme events -Flood
and Landslide

33. Maximum
Temperature

34. Cyclones

35. 1970
1991
2007
Source: DMB Situation Report,2007
• According to ICZMP coastal area includes
19 districts. Among these 16 coastal
districts are considered in present study
• Total area: 42,500 km2
• Total population: 31 million (BBS, 2001)
History of major cyclones

36. Cyclone

37. Cyclones in Bangladesh
37

38. • Wind speed will increase around 10%for
one degree Celsius increase in
temperature.
• Frequency and Intensity of cyclone will be
more.
Climate Change Impact on Cyclone

39. Recent Cyclones in the Subcontinent
SIDR: Bangladesh: 2007
NARGIS: Myanmar: 2008
RASHMI: Bangladesh: 2008
AILA : Bangladesh: 2009
MOHASEN: Bangladesh: 2013

40. CYCLONE
40

41. Floods

42. Frequency of Flood
42

43. Flood
Flood 2004

44. FLOOD
44

45. Causes
a. Heavy rainfall
b. Heavy siltation of the river bed reduces the water
carrying capacity of the rivers/stream.
c. Blockage in the drains leads to flooding of the area.
d. Landslides blocking the flow of the stream.
e. Construction of dams and reservoirs
f. In areas prone to cyclone, strong winds accompanied
by heavy down pour along with storm surge leads to
flooding.
Flood

46. Chronology of Big Floods

47. Economic Loss and Fatality of Floods

48. RADARSAT ScanSAR Wide image, 23 July 2004

49. Climate Change Impact on River Flow
Sources: A study conducted by CEGIS using the hydrological model SWAT

50. Brahmaputra
Annual: 710,000 Mm3
Increase: 5-10%
Annual: 150,000 Mm3
Increase: 7-10%
Meghna
Ganges
Annual:
350,000 Mm3
Increase: 8-17%
Climate Change Impact on River Flow
Cont..

51. • Flooding event will increase both in
terms of intensity and frequency
• The average flooding depth will increase
about 0.3 m
• The 50 year return period of flood event
will be a 20 year event
Climate Change Impact on Flooding

52. The Linkage
Climate Change
Global Warming (Anthropogenic)
Temperature Rise
•LST
•SST
Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and Sea Level Rise
Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge
Loss of Property + Injury + Death
DISASTER

53. Food Security
 IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production in
Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32
percent
 Decrease production of livestock,
 Increase of pest attack
 Decrease production of fisheries

54. Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and
Adaptation Achievements
Dividend in climate smart development
Development($)
Climate impacted development loss
Climate smart adaptation benefits
Time (t) years
54

55. Floods and Cyclones
pictures

56. Climate Disasters in Bangladesh

64. Responses:
Some Examples on Community Based
Adaptation

65. Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID
Raised Plinth Height

66. HomesteadGardenon
RaisedPlinth

67. Raised Plinth of Toilet

68. Livestock
During
Flood
Raising
Plinth

69. Preservation of Household
Assets Over False Ceiling
Storage of Food during Flood

70. Storage of Safe Drinking
Water & Dry Food

71. Community based rain
water harvesting
Household based rain
water harvesting

72. Floating Garden
During Flood
Locally Known as
Baira Cultivation

73. Raised Tube Well

74. Store Extra Furnace

75. Protecting from
Erosion
Protecting Income
Generating Activity

76. Water
Collection in
Hilly Region

77. Community People Using the Water
of Re-excavated Pond

78. Pond Sand Filter

79. Household Based Rain Water
Harvesting in Drought Prone Area

80. Drip Irrigation

81. Household Based Irrigation
Farming

82. Crab Farming in Saline Water

83. Saline Tolerant Rice

84. Chickpeas in Drought Area

85. Seed storage system/seed bank
Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery
Making Soil heap
Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal

86. A Greenhouse in Pakistan

87. Examples in Agriculture
Nigeria Morocco
Senegal India

88. Example in Agriculture
Australia

89. Examples in Agriculture
Farming in Brazil

90. Intensive Potato Farming in Canada
Examples in Agriculture

91. Farming in New Zealand
Examples in Agriculture

92. Farming in Philippines
Examples in Agriculture