FYI – A geo-political analysis of U.S. Foreign Policy in Afghanistan/South Asia. He pulls no punches in his opinion. Similarly in the book I helped major Amin and Colonel Osinski put together it is stated: …The very idea of USA talking to Taliban is naive...The Taliban do not represent the whole Afghanistan” (Amin, 2009). “The Taliban are politically rejected by nearly the entire non-Pashtun population (Figure 1). Even among the Pashtun they command polling support of less than 6%” (McCaffrey, 2009). “If any settlement has to be negotiated with them Afghanistan would have to be divided. What the Taliban signify is not acceptable to at least 50 % of Afghans...Any U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in totality would be a great U.S. strategic failure. Even if the USA withdraws it must retain bases because the Afghans respect B 52 s and fear Allah although I doubt the second assertion somewhat. U.S. or NATO withdrawal would lead to a renewed war between the Northern Alliance supported by Russia, India and Iran and the Good Taliban supported by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. There would be no Taliban occupation of Kabul or Mazar (Figure 9). Although the Taliban may practice their brand of Islam at Kandahar and Ghazni Provinces in Afghanistan (Figure 5), the Afghan war would continue as long as the Indian - Pakistani issue is not decided militarily” (Amin 2009). Therein lays a major problem

10. As they say hope is a good breakfast but a bad
supper !
Americans are masters in being wise after the
event.
For many years this scribe has interacted with
some 8000 intelligence professionals mostly
American and repeatedly we have reached the
conclusion that the USA lacks strategic talent,
since we established our study group cum think
tank known as centre for study of intelligence
operations.
All along we have maintained that many of the US
failures stem from the fact that US leadership both
political and military lacks strategic talent.
Recent visit of US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo
and Assistant Secretary of State Randall G
Schriver is yet another confirmation of the fact
that the US state lacks strategic talent.
The US captured Afghanistan without a single fatal
casualty in 2001. Thereafter it was master of the
geopolitical era in Afghanistan from 2001 to 2004
without any serious opposition.

11. During these three years the USA could have
mastered the region strategically without much
resistance.
But US commanders sat paralysed in Kabul with no
strategy at all.
Geopolitics is too big a subject.Here we saw
commanders who were glorified tank troop leaders
or infantry section commanders.
These are this scribes personal observations
based on experiences while permanently based in
Afghanistan from 2003 to 2012 and frequently
visiting Afghanistan, once a month from 2012 till
todate.
Some examples would explain my point.
US commanders could not select and site even a
small platoon level post

12. For example they selected a post known as Shkin
in Paktika which was a death sentence for any US
military person stationed there.
First this post provoked all kinds of attacks from
all kinds of people because it was dumbly and
most vulnerably sited on the Pakistan Afghanistan
border.
Maximum US fatal casualties in Paktika took place
on this dumbly sited post throughout US stay in
Afghanistan from 2002 to 2014.

13. US Military in Kabul and US Embassy in
Afghanistan failed to establish any effective
mechanism to monitor what Pakistani state was
doing in return for some 25 Billion US aid doled to
Pakistan between 2001 and 2009

15. United States officials like Schriver makes highly
fallacious and simplistic statements like “
Pakistans sacrifices” but hardly ever study the
map before making such nonsense statements.
What happened starting 2003 was that Pakistans
military dictator Musharraf brilliantly or lets say
craftily deceived the USA.
While Musharraf provided sanctuary to the Afghan
Taliban in Pakistans Baluchistan province , he
callously launched a totally unprovoked operation
in Pakistans Waziristan region , which had nothing
to do with US war in Afghanistan, insisting that
this was the heartland of terror and naieve US
commanders in Afghanistan dumbly accepted this
narrative !
All throughout 2003 to 2012 Pakistani military
launched various operations in Waziristan while US
troops suffered major casualties in Helmand
Kandahar and Uruzgan which had nothing to do
with Waziristan.
To add flavor to the deception Musharraf also
allowed the US secretly full permission to hit any
target in Pakistans FATA/Waziristan region using
drones.

17. In a recent visit to Pakistan Schriver made some
very interesting albeit hilarious statements like
Pakistan played major role in operations against Al
Qaeda, Daesh etc.
What US , so called key decision makers sadly
failed to understand all along was the fact that Al
Qaeda or Daesh were never serious players in
Afghanistan.
The vast bulk of insurgents in Af Pak were and are
the Pakistan supported Afghan Taliban who remain
intact and active as well as potent as a strategic
insurgent force.
The essence of the whole issue remains the fact
that the US failed in Afghanistan all along from
2001 till todate to defeat an insurgency covertly
supported by a WMD armed state Pakistan , with
covert additional support from China and Russia.
US failed to evolved a strategy how to deal with
Pakistan just like the USSR had failed to evolve a
strategy how to deal with Pakistan during Soviet
Afghan war.
Interestingly and for USA ironically , Pakistans
nuclear deterrent that made USA clueless in how
to deal with Pakistan was something that the USA
had allowed Pakistan to acquire so that the USSR

18. or its ally India should not invade Pakistan during
the Soviet Afghan war.
Pompeo and Schriver wasted US taxpayers fuel
visiting Pakistan and thereafter proceeded to
India.
India too remains elusive as it does not have the
strength to face China, USAs main adversary in
this region.
China already has weaved and knotted a strategic
noose around India by having subsidiary vassals
like China and Myanmar as well as Sri Lanka.
However hard the USA tries it would not be able to
wean China away from Russia or Iran with whom
India has strategic ties.
Further India will always be a weak and dubious
bet for the USA against China.
Already India has not supported US efforts as
much as the US wanted to conduct covert
operations against China using Uighurs and other
Chinese groups as well as Tibetans.
Thus USAs China strategy as far as India is
concerned remains weak.

19. In Afghanistan USA has no strategy other than
pressurizing Pakistan to control its proxies i.e
Afghan Taliban.
Pakistani state will outwardly agree to support the
peace process but delaying the process while it
secures a US supported IMF bailout.

20. Geopolitically US political leverage with both
Pakistan and India is limited.

21. Pakistan is a 100 % Chinese proxy geopolitically
while Indian interests are evenly divided between
USA , Russia,China and Iran.
This makes India an unreliable partner in US
strategy against China ,Russia or Iran.
Pakistan remains elusive as ever and USA would
not be able to make any headway in Pakistan.
In Afghanistan USA has no strategy although it has
various options to deal with Afghanistan.
The ideal solution in Afghanistan remains division
of Afghanistan in three states.This is entirely
feasible.
FIRST
Afghanistans north does not want the Taliban in
any form.
A move can be initiated to institute a referendum
or plebiscite in Afghanistan where each province
decides whether it wants to stay with the defacto
and de jure Kabul regime or wants Taliban.

22. SECOND
US leverage with Pakistan and Iran is highly
limited . To manipulate and influence the conduct
of both these states , ethnic minorities in these
two states have to be prioritized.
But there is a big problem how to do it. A US State
Department , possibly CIA officer Doug Scherer
who I met in Kabul in December 2005-May 2006
stated that his superiors in state department etc
were wet pussies hiding behind e mails and
incapable of any decision.

23. When I showed him a war game depiction of a
situation in Iranian Baluchistan he replied “ my
superiors are so shit scared of Iran that they would
have a heart attack if they see this map
depiction”.
This sums up the USA as a state. It has lost that
strategic resolution to influence geopolitics which
it possessed as late as 1988.
The best way to deal with both Pakistan and Iran
is to use the ethnic card , and this means empower
the Baluch in Afghanistan.
The Baluch is a small but significant minority and
is in majority in Afghanistans Nimroz province and
in western districts of Farah and Heart Province.
Rather than spending billions on Afghanistans
Pashtun and Tajik east and south the USA must

24. empower the Baluch by creating an autonomous
Baluch zone in west Afghanistan. A state wholly
dependent on US largesse like Afghanistan whose
foreign relations were under total control of the
English East India Company from 1842 to 1858 and
under the British crown from 1858 to 1919.
A Baluch state in Afghanistan would keep both
Pakistan and Iran on their toes.
Further division of Afghanistan on Pashtun and non
Pashtun lines would keep the Pakistani state on its
toes, rather than any promises of engaging the
Taliban.
It is a losing game that the USA plays in
Afghanistan when it expects Pakistan to stabilize
Afghanistan.
A stable Afghanistan has never been in the interest
of the Potohar-Lahore-Faisalabad-Karachi
Pakistani establishment who has always gained
from instability in Afghanistan.
THIRDLY
Main issues paralyzing US policy are lack of
strategic talent.The State Department and policy
makers intellect needs severe improvement. They
need to read and re-read JFC Fuller , Liddell

25. Hart,Mackinder,Clausewitz , Ed Luttwak and Andre
Beaufre.
FOURTHLY
The CIA and DIA need to be radically reformed as
both these organizations are afflicted with
financial corruption.
My interaction with high level DIA officer led me to
the conclusion that main reason for US policy
failure is financial corruption , greed and avarice !
Not the Russians or Chinese.
A senior Canadian intelligence officer who is a
good friend was deeply disappointed by US
behavior as he saw it in various intelligence
contracts.
FIFTHLY
The USA must understand that states are not
created by God but by good strategic planning in
the Whitehall or the India House as the British did
in their history.
Geopolitics means manipulation and manipulation
can be done only by drawing new maps and
transforming geography.
The secret of greatness of Rome was not Pompeos
and Schrivers wasting US taxpayers fuel travelling

26. to Pakistan or India but “ Strategy” and “ Divide et
Impera” !
SIXTHLY
The Chinese and Russians have gained enormously
in geopolitical mastery in last ten years.This has
happened because of bad US strategic decisions
since 1990.
To push the Russians or Chinese back ,
Afghanistan must not be abandoned by the USA.
Having lost the Syrian War because of highly
mediocre strategic leadership of Obama and
massive corruption in the CIA , the USA needs
serious rethinking and reappraisal.
US strategic defeat in the ongoing geopolitical
struggle is by no means inevitable.
Nothing ever was inevitable in history .
But history is moved by great strategy and good
planning and resolute leadership.
What he have seen in last three decades is that
the USA is moved by events rather than US plans
moving events !

27. This kind of behavior will only lead to total decline
of USA as a serious geopolitical player !
Afghanistan is one place from where both China
and Russia can be hit really hard at their soft
underbelly.Pakistan and Iran kept on their toes.
All strategies to stabilize Afghanistan will fail as
Pakistan,Iran,Russia and China do not want
stability in Afghanistan.
These are my conclusions based on valuable
Afghan experience gained in a period spread over
three decades.