This document summarizes a study on the effects of climate change on teff production in Ethiopia and implications for food security. The study found that climate change is predicted to significantly reduce suitable habitat for teff by 2050, lowering production and increasing prices. Interviews with farmers revealed changes in rainfall patterns, higher temperatures and more frequent droughts. The study recommends developing climate-resilient crop varieties and strengthening climate change adaptation policies and agricultural technologies. Building on the results, a similar study of climate change effects on sorghum in Kenya was proposed.

1. ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
ON TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD
SECURITY
Dan Kiambi, Fassil Kebebew, Maria D. Bij de
Vaate, John Yumbya and KPC Rao
Institute of Biodiversity Conservation
Presentation for the IDRC,
ESARO
20th September 2012

2. Outline of the presentation
 Overall impacts of climate change on
agriculture
 The project
 Main objective
 Specific objectives
 Methodology
 Key results of the study
 Conclusions and recommendations
 Building on the study

3. Overall climate change effects on
agriculture
 Changes in geographic ranges of crops, pests
and disease
 Occurrence of new crops and livestock
diseases and pests
 Re-distribution of crops, variation in yields and
loss of their genetic diversity
 Adverse effects on agro-biodiversity leading to
large scale extinctions of wild relatives of crop
plants

4. ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
TEFF IN ETHIOPIA: IMPLICATIONS FOR FOOD SECURITY
 Project started in November 2010
 Partners: ABCIC, IBC, CIAT and ICRISAT
 Case study crop was Teff
 Long history of cultivation
 Associated with strong cultural practices
 Geographic distinctiveness
 Funding from IDRC

5. Major objective
Study the likely effects of climate change on
distribution and genetic diversity of teff in order
to guide scientific, policy and farm level
interventions as well as draw inferences and
implications for food security
Project objectives

6. Specific objectives
 To assess the potential geographic shifts in
distribution of teff
 To assess the loss of diversity in teff as a
consequence of climate change
 To document and evaluate the climate
change adaptation and coping strategies by
farmers in the pilot areas

7. Specific objectives
 To assess socio-economic impacts and
scientific and policy implications for food
security
 To sensitize policy makers and stakeholders
on climate change concerns through effective
communication and dissemination of the
project findings

8. Collection of teff data
 A total of 1441 geo-referenced data points from
gene bank records and herbarium specimens
were collected from the Institute of Biodiversity
Conservation and National Herbarium of the
Addis Ababa University
 Yield data records included 23 sample points
describing altitude, latitude, longitude and teff
yield
Methodology

9. Collection of climate data
 Climate conditions both current (1950-2010) and
future (~2050) were obtained from WorldClim
 Bioclimatic variables for each of the 23 yield data
points were extracted from the climatic datasets
using DIVA-GIS software (Version 5.2).
Methodology

10. Suitability Index and teff yield
 The model was run in DIVA-GIS. The output
from the model was transformed into presence/
absence data by assigning presence to the
areas where scores were within 2.5 – 97.5
percentile range
 The scores for each pixel were the suitability
indexes
 Yield points were converted to shapefiles using
ArcGIS 9.3 and overlaid on the suitability grids
Methodology

11. Socio-economic survey
Developed to increase our understanding about
agricultural activities and associated changes in
the study districts Gimbichu, Minjar and Bora
 Climatic changes observed
 Impacts of changes as perceived by farmers
 Challenges faced
 Mitigation efforts of negative effects of climate
changes
Methodology

12. Study Area
The study area
included Bora,
Minjar Shenkora
and Gimbichu
located in
central Ethiopia
300 respondents
(100 per site)
Methodology

13. Current teff occurrence in Ethiopia in relation
to rainfall (left) and temperature (right)

14. KEY RESULTS OF THE STUDY

15. Change in rainfall and temp over the past 7 yrs as
perceived by respondents in the three districts
Bora* Gimbichu* Minjar*
** n +/- + - n +/- + - n +/- + -
Amount of rain 100 100 99 6 35 59 100 7 13 80
Frequency of rain
showers
100 100 97 4 35 61 100 10 8 82
Distribution of rainfall
in the year
100 100 97 15 19 66 99 9 8 83
Number of dry months
in a year
100 98 2 89 39 52 9 94 6 61 33
Occurence of droughts 100 52 25 23 73 47 14 40 78 50 22 28
Occurence of floods 100 22 68 10 76 43 36 21 81 74 5 21
Water availability 100 19 81 96 2 25 73 100 16 28 56
Water stress 100 18 81 1 95 1 49 49 98 18 34 48
Length of the growing
season
100 3 97 85 28 34 36 97 14 8 77
Temperature 100 99 1 98 7 80 13 98 5 81 14
Number of hot days 100 98 2 94 14 74 12 95 6 80 14
Occurence of heat
waves
100 3 97 0 75 48 41 11 83 60 30 10
* Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
** +/- no change + increase - decrease

16. Most rapid changes observed by respondents
in the three districts over the last 7 years
Bora
(n=100)
Gimbichu
(n=100)
Minjar
(n=99)
Less rainfall 98 (1) 90 (1) 69 (2)
Decreased reliability of
rainfall
64 (4) 66 (3) 42 (5)
Temperature increase 82 (2) 28 (5) 61 (4)
More floods 12 0 2
Increased failure of crops 30 0 4
Increased weeds and pests 60 (5) 73 (2) 12
Less forest cover,
environmental degradation
82 (2) 66 (3) 65 (3)
Less wildlife 19 28 (5) 74 (1)
Rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
Between brackets is the ranking of most
rapid changes in the district
From a list of 38 issues (12
climatic related, 8
environmental, 11
agricultural and 7 socio-
economic)
For Minjar the changes in rainfall and temperature were mentioned
often among the five most rapid changes observed, but less often than
in Bora

17. Cereal crop failures due to drought in the three
districts
Average
number of crop
failures due to
drought during
last 5 yrs
Specified crop failure for respondents who lost
crops to droughts*
teff barley wheat maize sorghum
Bora 2.5 (n=100) 43 20 68 96 22
Gimbichu 0.0 (n=1) 0 0 1 0 0
Minjar 1.4 (n=85) 61 59 89 34 31
* rates in percentage % of respondents (n)
 In Bora all respondents reported to have suffered crop failures due to
droughts.

18. Current (left) and future (right) potential distribution of
Eragrostis teff in Ethiopia

19. Current (left) and future (right) predicted teff yields

20. Drop in teff yield production in tonnes per hectare
by the year 2050
Severe drop in yield will be
experienced in the areas
marked in red
- This shows a change of
0.46 tonnes/ha and above

21. Implications of climate change on teff production
 The model confirmed future teff distribution changes
and yields reductions due to climatic changes
 Average loss of approximately 24% (236,975.65
Km²) of the current suitable area for teff by
approximately the year 2050
 With a change in the species climatic envelope, the
species will only be suitable to temperatures of up to
27°C and a low of 15 °C

22. Socio-economic impacts of climate change
 Biophysical results projected into an economic analysis
 Production of a national assessment of tef production
and food security under climate change
 Simple calculations used to evaluate consequent
changes in national tef production and tef prices
 Alarming results

23. Socio-economic impacts of climate change
 Effects of climate change on yields predict a loss of
0.46 tons/ha
 A reduction of 1,190,784 tons in the national
production
 Estimated economic loss of US$650,961,954 based
on farm gate prices
 A loss of US$730,347,581 based on current market
prices

24. Conclusions and Recommendations

25. Recommendations on strategies for climate change
mitigation and adaptation by farmers in the three districts
Bora* (n=100)
Gimbichu*
(n=100)
Minjar* (n=100)
Consultation of the local community by
government
14 4 7
Awareness on climate change 18 (3) 46 (2) 16
Conservation and management of forests 59 (1) 26 12
Law enforcement regarding forest
conservation
33 (2) 1 3
Improve agricultural development policies 17 13 23 (3)
Address land tenure issues 3 0 1
Address high costs of inputs 2 1 21
New technologies 18 67 (1) 43 (2)
Improve access to technologies and
innovations
2 7 8
Research and Development 0 1 6
Soil conservation 15 22 6
Water conservation 6 30 (3) 9
Development of infrastructure 0 0 44 (1)
* rates in percentage of respondents (n)
Between brackets is the ranking of most popular action
points in the district

26. Proposed interventions
Local level interventions
 Farmers should get better access to new technologies and knowledge,
and moreover be encouraged to diversify crop varieties
 A change of mindset among farmers is needed for them to adopt new
technologies and crop varieties
 An integrated approach in the application of climate change mitigation
and adaptation strategies is needed at the community level
.

27. Proposed interventions
 Scientific interventions
 Identification and isolation of valuable local
varieties characteristics
 Crop improvement to develop “climate ready
varieties”
 Streamlining seed distribution systems to improve
access to “climate ready” seeds
 Integrated community level approaches (including
indigenous knowledge) in the development of
climate change mitigation and adaptation
technologies/strategies

28. Proposed interventions
 Policy interventions
 Strengthening current development initiatives to
support climate change adaptation/mitigation
 Mainstreaming climate change
adaptation/mitigation into development planning in
the different economic sectors
 Undertaking new investments in agricultural
research targeting climate change issues
 Enforcement of laws and policies that impact on
climate change mitigation and adaptation

29.  Policy interventions
 Empowering and improving the capacities of farmers
to respond to climate change
 Supporting the development and dissemination of
agricultural technologies targeted towards mitigation
and adaptation of climate change
 Integrate local indigenous knowledge systems and
traditional decision making frameworks and
mechanisms within the national climate change
mitigation and adaptation strategies
Proposed interventions

30. Building on this study
TITLE : ASSESSING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON
SORGHUM IN KENYA: FOOD SECURITY IN A CHANGING
ENVIRONMENT
1. Replicate and refine the methodologies used in the previous study
2. Develop a yield index for sorghum which has not been done yet
3. Better options and opportunities for awareness (public and policy)
4. Better opportunities for policy dialogue
5. Use of lessons learnt in project design and implementation