Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals

1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
and
Millennium Development Goals
By
Aabid Hussain Mir
Department of environmental Studies
North-Eastern Hill University Shillong.

2. ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly
growing around the world…
Water
One-third of the
world’s population
is now subject to
water scarcity.
Population facing
water scarcity will
double over the
next 30 years
Food
Food production must
increase to meet the needs of
an additional 3 billion
people over the next 30
years
Timber
Wood fuel is the only
source of fuel for
one third of the
world’s population.
Wood demand will
double in next 50
years.

3. ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to
provide certain services has been declining…
Excellent
Good
Fair
Poor
Bad
Not Assessed
Food-Fiber Production
Water Quality
Water Quantity
Biodiversity
Carbon Storage
Increasing
Decreasing
Mixed
Condition of
Ecosystem
Changing
Capacity
Key
*Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI
Ecosystem Type
Services

4. What is Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)?
 Largest assessment ever undertaken for the health of ecosystems.
 Initiated by UN general secretary- Kofi Annan in 2000, authorized by governments
through 4 conventions, launched in 2001 and completed in 2005.
 A consortium of governments, non-profit groups, international agencies, universities, and
businesses to conduct a global assessment of the Earth’s ecosystems, the services they
provide and to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being.
 Designed to meet the needs of stakeholders, including the business community, the health
sector, nongovernmental organizations, and indigenous peoples.

5. The MA focuses on:
 Ecosystem services
 The consequences of changes in
ecosystems for human well being
 ecosystems intensively managed
and modified by humans.
 The consequences of changes in
ecosystems for other life on
earth

7.  Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries governed by a multi-
stakeholder board drawn from the world of science, civil society,
government and the private sector.
 Information was synthesized from scientific literatures and relevant
peer-reviewed datasets and models.
 Incorporated knowledge held by the private sector, practitioners, local
communities, and indigenous people.
 Consists of interlinked assessments undertaken at local, watershed and
regional scales, which fed into the global assessment.
 There are 18 MA-approved sub-global assessments with an additional 15
of associated status.

8. The MA Board and design are reflective of a full
spectrum of stakeholder groups:
Private sector
• MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business
Council on Sustainable Development
• Individual companies are represented by Board members
• MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit
agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations
Media and Public
National and sub-national
governments
• ~180 governments have
endorsed the MA through
their participation in
international conventions
• Administrative authorities are
also engaged as users at
other levels
International organizations
• The MA was featured as a key
action in the UN Secretary-
General’s “Millennium
Report”, April 2000
• The MA was launched by Kofi
Annan, June 2001
• 13 international institutions
are directly represented on
the MA Board
Local communities and civil
society
• Traditional knowledge of
indigenous groups will be
incorporated in the MA
• MA has been designed to
meet some assessment needs
of indigenous and local
communities
• MA will provide information
to various news outlets,
journals, etc.
• Findings may become part of
a public information
campaign on ecosystems

10. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

11. • More land was converted to cropland since 1945 than in the
18th and 19th centuries combined
• 25% of the world’s coral reefs were badly degraded or
destroyed in the last several decades
• 35% of mangrove area has been lost in this time
• Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960
• Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960

12. Biogeochemical Cycles
Since 1960:
 Flows of biologically available
nitrogen in terrestrial
ecosystems doubled
 Flows of phosphorus tripled
> 50% of all the synthetic
nitrogen fertilizer ever used has
been used since 1985
60% of the increase in the
atmospheric concentration of
CO2
since 1750 has taken place
since 1959
Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen
Humans produce as much biologically
available N as all natural pathways and
this may grow a further 65% by 2050

13. Dal lake, Kashmir

14. Irreversible changes to species diversity
The distribution of species on
Earth is becoming more
homogenous
Humans have increased the
species extinction rate by
between 50 and 1,000 times over
background rates typical over
the planet’s history (medium
certainty)
10–30% of mammal, bird, and
amphibian species are currently
threatened with extinction
(medium to high certainty)

15. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

16. Changes to ecosystems have provided
substantial benefits
Since 1960, while
population doubled and
economic activity
increased 6-fold:
 food production increased 2
½ times; food production per
capita has grown and food
price has fallen
 water use doubled
 wood harvests for pulp and
paper production tripled
 timber production increased
by more than half
 installed hydropower capacity
doubled

17. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

18. Service Status
Food crops 
livestock 
capture fisheries 
aquaculture 
wild foods 
Fiber timber +/–
cotton, silk +/–
wood fuel 
Genetic resources 
Biochemicals, medicines 
Water fresh water 
Status of Provisioning Services

19. Status of Regulating and Cultural Services
Status
Regulating Services
Air quality regulation 
Climate regulation – global 
Climate regulation – regional and local 
Water regulation +/–
Erosion regulation 
Water purification and waste treatment 
Disease regulation +/–
Pest regulation 
Pollination 
Natural hazard regulation 
Cultural Services
Spiritual and religious values 
Aesthetic values 
Recreation and ecotourism +/–

20. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

21. Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Species introductions and
losses
Regional climate change

22. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

23. Level of poverty remains high and inequities are
growing
Economics and Human Development
 1.1 billion people surviving on less than $1 per day of income.
 During the 1990s, 21 countries experienced declines in their
rankings in the Human Development Index
Access to Ecosystem Services
 An estimated 856 million people were undernourished in 2000–
2002, up 32 million from 1995–97
 Per capita food production has declined in sub-Saharan Africa
 Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved water supply,
and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitation
 Water scarcity affects roughly 1–2 billion people worldwide

24. Ecosystem services and poverty reduction
Degradation of ecosystem services harms poor
people
 Half the urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America,
and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases
associated with inadequate water and sanitation
 The declining state of capture fisheries is reducing an
inexpensive source of protein in developing countries.
Per capita fish consumption in developing countries,
excluding China, declined between 1985 and 1997

25. Ecosystem services and poverty
reduction
Critical concern: Dryland
systems
 Lowest levels of human well-being
 Only 8% of the world’s renewable
water supply
 Per capita water availability is two
thirds of the level required for
minimum levels of human well-being
 Approximately 10–20% of drylands
are degraded
 Experienced the highest population
growth rate in the 1990s
 Cover 41% of Earth’s land surface and
more than 2 billion people inhabit
them

26. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

28. Changes in direct drivers
Habitat transformation:
Further 10–20% of grassland
and forestland is projected
to be converted by 2050
Overexploitation,
overfishing:
Pressures continue to grow
in all scenarios
Invasive alien species:
Spread continues to
increase

29. Nutrient loading
Global flux of
nitrogen to
coastal
ecosystems will
increase by a
further 10–20%
by 2030

30. Potential future impacts
 By the end of the century, climate change and its
impacts may be the dominant direct driver of
biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services
globally
Net harmful impact on ecosystem services
 The balance of scientific evidence suggests that there
will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem
services worldwide if global mean surface temperature
increases more than 2o C above preindustrial levels
(medium certainty)
Changes in direct drivers:
Climate Change

31. MA Findings - Outline
1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years
2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem Change
Three major problems will decrease long-term benefits
 Degradation of Ecosystem Services
 Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes
 Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People
3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years
4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

32. Responses – Importance of Indirect Drivers
Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without
actions that address one or more indirect drivers of
change:
 population change (including growth and migration)
 change in economic activity (including economic growth,
disparities in wealth, and trade patterns)
 sociopolitical factors (including factors ranging from the
presence of conflict to public participation in decision-making)
 cultural factors
 technological change
Collectively these factors influence the level of
production and consumption of ecosystem services
and the sustainability of the production.

33.  Set of numerical and time-bound targets to measure achievements in
human and social development.
 Agreed by 192 countries and 23 international organizations to be
achieved by 2015.
 Adopted in 2000 in United Nation Millennium Declaration at the UN
Summit.
 Includes 21 targets and 60 indicators .

34. Goals

35. Goals and Targets
Indicators for
monitoring progress
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Target 1.A: Halve,
between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people
whose income is less than
one dollar a day
1. Proportion of population below
$1 (PP) per day.
2. Poverty gap ratio.
3. Share of poorest quintile in
national consumption
Target 1.B: Achieve full
and productive
employment and decent
work for all, including
women and young people
1. Growth rate of GDP per
person employed
2. Employment-to-population
ratio
3. Proportion of employed people
living below $1 (PPP) per day
4. Proportion of own-account and
contributing family workers in
total employment
Target 1.C: Halve,
between 1990 and 2015,
the proportion of people
who suffer from hunger
1. Prevalence of underweight
children under-five years of
age
2. Proportion of population below
minimum level of dietary
energy consumption

36. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Target 2.A: Ensure that, by
2015, children everywhere,
boys and girls alike, will be
able to complete a full
course of primary schooling
1. Net enrolment ratio in primary
education
2. Proportion of pupils starting
grade 1 who reach last grade of
primary.
3. Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds,
women and men
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Target 3.A: Eliminate
gender disparity in primary
and secondary education,
preferably by 2005, and in
all levels of education no
later than 2015
1. Ratios of girls to boys in
primary, secondary and
tertiary education.
2. Share of women in wage
employment in the non-
agricultural sector.
3. Proportion of seats held by
women in national

37. Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Target 4.A: Reduce by
two-thirds, between 1990
and 2015, the under-five
mortality rate
1. Under-five mortality rate
2. Infant mortality rate
3. Proportion of 1 year-old
children immunised against
measles
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Target 5.A: Reduce by
three quarters, between
1990 and 2015, the
maternal mortality ratio
1. Maternal mortality ratio
2. Proportion of births attended
by skilled health personnel
Target 5.B: Achieve, by
2015, universal access to
reproductive health
1. Contraceptive prevalence
rate
2. Adolescent birth rate
3. Antenatal care coverage (at
least one visit and at least
four visits)
4. Unmet need for family
planning

38. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
Target 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to
reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
1. HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years
2. Condom use at last high-risk sex
3. Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with
comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS
4. Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school
attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years
Target 6.B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access
to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need
it
1. Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with
access to antiretroviral drugs
Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to
reverse the incidence of malaria and other major
diseases
1. Incidence and death rates associated with malaria
2. Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide-
treated bed nets
3. Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated
with appropriate anti-malarial drugs
4. Incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with
tuberculosis
5. Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under
directly observed treatment short course

39. Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of
sustainable development into country policies
and programmes and reverse the loss of
environmental resources
Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving,
by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss
1. Proportion of land area covered by forest
2. CO2 emissions, total, per capita and per $1
GDP (PPP)
3. Consumption of ozone-depleting substances
4. Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological
limits
5. Proportion of total water resources used
6. Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas
protected
7. Proportion of species threatened with extinction
Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of
people without sustainable access to safe drinking
water and basic sanitation
8. Proportion of population using an improved
drinking water source
9. Proportion of population using an improved
sanitation facility
Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a
significant improvement in the lives of at least
100 million slum dwellers
10. Proportion of urban population living in slums.

40. Sanitation

41. G o a l 8 : D e v e l o p a g l o b a l p a r t n e r s h i p f o r d e v e l o p m e n t
Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial
system. Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both nationally and
internationally.
Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries. Includes: tariff and quota free access
for the least developed countries' exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for heavily indebted poor
countries (HIPC) and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for countries committed
to poverty reduction
Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing
States (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States
and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the General Assembly)
Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and
international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.
Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in
developing countries.
Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies,
especially information and communications

42. • As per the original framework adopted by India, there
are 18 targets.
• But Only 12 (Targets 1 to 11 and 18), which are relevant
to India, are statistically monitored.
• Corresponding to the 12 monitorable targets, India has
adopted 35 of the 48 prescribed indicators (by United
Nations) as relevant for statistical tracking.

43.  The poorest states in India (e.g., Uttar
Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Orissa, and
Madhya Pradesh):
• are among the most populous
in the country, and
• have among the worst MD
indicators.
 Owing to more rapid population growth,
these states will account for an even
larger share of India’s population in 2015.
 Therefore, India’s attainment of MDGs will
largely depend on the performance of
these states.

44. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Delhi
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
MizoramNagaland
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Chandigarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Daman & Diu
Lakshadweep
Pondicherry
India
Poverty Head Count Ratio-States/UTs %
2004-05 level 2015-Projected level 2015-Target Level Source: CSO,INDIA

45. 0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
India
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
MaharashtraManipur
Meghalaya
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 live births
2008 level 2015 Projected level 2015 Target level Sourc
CSO,INDI

46. Analysis has been at a highly aggregate level –
typically the level of the country. This is
meaningless in a large and heterogeneous country
like India.
The likelihood of attaining the MDGs hasn’t been
usefully linked to the factors that influence MD
indicators. This is necessary to address the question:
what will it take to attain the MDGs?