MR. TAJ 2007

Roll# 207& 245-BH-ECON-11
Table of Contents
Abstract:........................................................................................................................................................2
Introduction:.................................................................................................................................................3
Background of the study:..............................................................................................................................4
Literature Review or Findings: ......................................................................................................................5
 GCC adopting the latest standards in IT: ..........................................................................................5
 Yemen aims to Assimilate Laborers in to GCC:.................................................................................6
 GCC Financial Markets: .....................................................................................................................6
 The Banking Sector: ..........................................................................................................................7
Tabulated Form:....................................................................................................................................8
Graphical Analysis:................................................................................................................................9
 Capital Markets:................................................................................................................................9
 Stock Market:..................................................................................................................................10
 GCC Petrochemical Industries must unite to Compete: .................................................................11
 Kuwait as an emerging economy in the GCC States: ......................................................................12
Methodology and Data Sources:.................................................................................................................13
Saudi Arabia (Regression Analysis):......................................................................................................13
Kuwait regression Analysis: ....................................................................................................................14
Regression analysis of UAE: ..................................................................................................................15
Regression Analysis of Bahrain:.............................................................................................................16
Regression Analysis of Qatar: .................................................................................................................17
Regression Analysis of Oman:................................................................................................................17
Conclusion:..................................................................................................................................................18
Work Cited ..................................................................................................................................................19

Abstract:
Today in a world of globalization, every nation wants to be part of a regional cooperation
in order to promote economic welfare, free trade and interest at every aspect of life. Like
NAFTA, SAFTA, EU and SAARC, Gulf Countries that are comprises of six nations also
cooperate among each other as GCC. Their ultimate objective is the promotion of free trade,
social, political and economic welfares. Beside this these countries are using the latest techniques
in their way to progress and much dependence on the oil sector. GCC was founded in 1981. This
cooperation has so far resulted in the establishment of well-organized banking, financial and
stock markets that are now in a position to compete with the world largest and powerful markets.
It is also said that such cooperation had resulted in rapid economic growth in the form of an
increase in GDP per capita income and improvement in social indicators like health, education,
reduction in poverty and economic development as a whole. A survey that was held by the IMF
has recommended that these countries should diversify in the field( dependence only on oil
sector that is affected a lot by external factors ) and must unite to go for alternatives.

Introduction:
GCC is basically a trade bloc between the Arab States. By “Trade Bloc”, we mean that it is
an agreement between states, regions, and countries to reduce trade barriers, and promote free
trade areas. Their basic purpose is the promotion of the trade and welfare among the nations.
Nowadays the major trade blocs in the world are European Union (EU), North American Free
Trade Agreement (NAFTA), Singapore- American Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA),
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Association of South East Asian
(ASEA), and South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC)…. The main
objectives of these trade blocs are the promotion of free trade, integration in the field of
economy, and regional and cultural cooperation.
On 25th May 1981, the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, State of Bahrain, Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia, Sultanate of Oman, State of Qatar and State of Kuwait met in Abu Dhabi, United
Arab Emirates, where they met to form a cooperation to promote common integration, trade,
unity and welfare among them. They say in the introduction of the charter of GCC that this
cooperation will be based on the true Islamic values, and besides this these nations also has the
same language, culture, religion, same history and economy which will benefit this trade bloc.
They also declared that this is the only way to protect their common interest and to protect the
economic objectives that they want to achieve because these nations combined have the world
largest resources of natural oil and ga Every trade blocs have some objectives to accomplish;
same is the case with Gulf Cooperation Council of Arab States. They wanted to achieve the
following objectives:

Firstly, they want an integration, coordination and unity in every field of life. Secondly,
with the help of this free trade agreement, they want to stabilize their relations in every economic
institution and among the people. Thirdly, they also want to strengthen their relations in the
various fields like economics and financial affairs, commerce, customs, communications,
education, social and health affairs, tourism and administrative affairs. Fourthly, they want to
cooperate in the field of industries, mining, agriculture, and technical supports for their labors.
Finally, they also want to promote the true Islamic values.
Background of the study:
Free Trade gains much importance during 1970,s when capitalism was at peak at that time. Many
trade blocks had been formed like NAFTA, SAFTA, SAARC and EU whose ultimate objective
is the promotion of free trade and welfare of their own nation. Gulf countries Cooperation was
formed in 1981 when six countries Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and UAE met
and give a shape to such regional integration. The Reasons behind the creation and formation of
this cooperative unit were as follows:
Firstly, the world was hit by a shock in the form of oil crises 1973,s that adversely affected the
exports of gulf countries because they were much dependent on oil sector. During this era their
exports fell by a great amount.
Secondly, these nations mostly depend on foreign laborers due to skill deficiency. They integrate
in order to overcome the problem of illegal immigrants and assimilating their own labors in the
market through efficient policies.
Finally, the foundation of GCC was also formulated on the basis to overcome the problems of
over dependence on oil exports and incorporate diversification in the export industries.

Literature Review or Findings:
These countries are rich in oil and export most of the world oils. At first their market was
not extensive but slowly it starts expanding at a very high rate due to the fluctuations in the oil
prices in the world market. According to World Bank report in 1999, they praised Kuwait and
the other Arab states for their strong financial markets and decrease in the inflation rate in the
following states. Their GDPs and per capita income increases to a great extent. The only problem
that these countries have is the presence of foreign labors. As the income of these countries
became a part of their specific countries. So far this issue is under great consideration in the GCC
headquarter.
 GCC adopting the latest standards in IT:
According to a recent report given by the Gartner, Inc., it says that the Arab states of the Gulf
Cooperation are using the latest technology and techniques in their information technology. The
GCC is now cost conscious and are now doing their best to have a great control on their costs.
Some of the standards, they are using are like ISO 2700 (it is an information and security
management system, which they use for the purpose of information and security techniques),
ISO 20000 (A service management system, which helps them in planning, establishment,
implementation, operation in order to fulfill the requirements in information technology), ITIL (it
is the most adopted approach in IT in the world, helps in planning, delivering, and supporting IT
services in a business), COBIT ( framework for IT which allows the managers to bridge the gap
between control requirement, technical issues and business risks) will help them a lot in the
future to estimate costs and Return on Investment which will benefit the cooperation in a long
run. The GGC is also involved in outsourcing in which they are want to look for the new

standards and technology systems in which Cloud is a better option for them, according to
Gartner, Inc.
 Yemen aims to Assimilate Laborers in to GCC:
According to a newspaper source, Yemen wanted to integrate with the GCC by providing them
with 50,000 labors annually, which they considered a good move from the Yemen side because
firstly, Yemen is an Arab state and secondly, they have a lot of foreigners who work in these
Arab states. These people are not only a threat for the local people as they got easily employment
opportunities in the GCC as compared to locals but also they took a large sum of money annually
to their respective countries. For this purpose, Yemen wanted to give their laborers a technical
and vocational language to make them able to do work in the GCC financial or labor markets. In
a recent meeting it was declared that GCC will provide the Yemeni labors with financial and
technical supports. This will help the Yemen to create a good relation with GCC and will benefit
a lot from assimilating their labors in to it. This will also strengthened the friendly relations
among the two Arab counterparts and will promote unity and welfare among the two nations.
 GCC Financial Markets:
According to the study made by Jaber Muhammad, it says that in the economic development of
the GCC, financial markets have played an important role. The development in those areas has
changed the standard of living of the Arab nations to a great extent. The study was conducted in
2000, and according to the author, the per capita income of these nation has increased from
$2366 in 1970 to $ 12,500 in the early 1996. These states are oil rich, and most of their export is
dependent on the international market price of oil. An increase in the oil price in the 1970,s and
1998 has greatly affected the financial markets. As, I mentioned before that GCC has six states

and each of them played their role in the annual GDP of the GCC in percent of which Qatar has
the greatest percentage of 10.5%, Saudi Arabia has 3.8%, UAE has 3.7%, Bahrain has 8.5%,
Kuwait has 4% and Oman has 1% role in the total GDP of the GCC. This is less as compared to
the developed nations of the world like United States alone has GDP percentage of about 18.2%.
The following sectors are playing their combined role in the economic development of the GCC
in an impressive way:
 The Banking Sector:
The banking sector in these regions is not that much old. The first bank was established in the
early 1950,s. The banking sector vested in the private sector; however, in GCC it has a strong
hold in the public sector. The size and scope of the banking sector in the GCC countries is not
that much strong as compared to the other developed regions of the world. It is because Saudi
Arabia which has the largest commercial bank in the region is only 2% of that of the United
States of America.
Economic size of banking sector of the GCC Countries: As far as the economic size in case of
total asset in terms of GDP is considered, the GCC countries has far greater asset than that of
USA. For example: Aggregate assets of Kuwait = 221.8% of total GDP, i.e. 3.8 times greater
than those of USA, which is 61.8% only. Similarly, Aggregate asset of UAE (127.1%) and Saudi
Arabia (69.7%) is 2.1 and 1.1 times greater than that of USA. (Statistical data diagrams, Jaber
Muhammad). It is also said that some of GCC countries has over banking, and it has reduced the

lending margin of these institutions. This is why when it was compared with of United States, the
banking in these states were having less credit due to overcrowded, but on the other hand the
result was totally different in other states like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and UAE. That is
why, nowadays all the states in the GCC are against the idea of expansion in the banking sector,
i.e. increase in the number of the banks. As noted that these regions are totally dependent on the
international oil price, when the oil price was increased in the early 1996-1997 has affected those
sectors to a great extent. These changes due to change in the oil price have affected the return on
asset and equity in the following ways:
Tabulated Form:
Country %Return on Assets % Return on Equity
Omani Banks 2.37 26.61
UAE Banks 1.9 15
Saudi Banks 1.7 17
Kuwaiti Banks 1.5 14
Bahrain Banks 1.5 12.5
Qatar Banks 1.6 12

Graphical Analysis:
However, the general price decrease in the next year causes a great loss in the profitability of the
GCC countries. So, from here we can conclude that these countries are mostly dependent on the
price of the oil in the international market. One of important measure of the GCC countries is the
credit provided for the domestic use. Among them, Kuwait is the leading provider of the
domestic credit of 103% which is usually greater than that of the developed countries such as
Korea and Chile. Bank credit to the public sector in the GCC countries is the highest among the
world economies like 3 times of the USA. So, one must say that it is a good sign of economic
growth because the loan provided to the public and private sector will be used for investment and
as we know more investment means that you are saving more, and that will also result in
employment opportunities and the increase in productivity of the following sectors.
 Capital Markets:
Capital markets play an important role in the financial markets of the economy. Capitals markets
are those markets in which financial assets like bonds and shares of the companies are traded.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% Returns on Equity
% returns on Assets

Basically there are two types of markets. One is primary in which the new bonds and shares are
traded while secondary market is a market in which the existing shares and bonds are traded
from one company to other and from an individual to other. The basic functions of these markets
are the encouragement of savings, investment, capital formation, and increasing economic
growth in an institution. Debt markets are a part of these markets and the scope and size of these
markets are limited in case of the GCC countries. For example, in Saudi Arabia the bonds are
traded in such a market and are returned to the issuing authority without making a big difference.
 Stock Market:
Stock markets are those markets that are involved in the selling and purchasing of stocks, bonds
and shares of a company. The basic purpose of these markets are expansion of industries,
encouraging savings, job opportunities, promotion of economic growth in the region, and
encouragement of improvement in the life standard of the people. GCC stock markets are quite
young as compared to that of the western world. The stock market in Kuwait is the oldest and it
was formed in the early 1960,s. According to the data, the aggregate sum of these markets was $
129 billion and that when it was compared to that of the Mexico or Korea was less. Nowadays,
the Saudi Arabia stock market is considered as the largest in the Middle East having shares of
60% in the GCC. Beside this Kuwait has 30%, UAE has 22%, Oman has 8%, Bahrain has 7%,
and Qatar has the lowest in the region of about 3% only.The GCC countries still has a long way
to go to compete in the international markets. For this purpose they to encourage union among
the banking sectors, lowers the barriers to the foreign investment, and remove any restrictions on
loan for the public and private sector etc. Without improving these sectors of the economy, they
will experience their effect on the economic growth of these institutions, and their boundaries
will be limited only within the region, and it will also cause a fall in the welfare of the nation.

 GCC Petrochemical Industries must unite to Compete:
This article written by Abdul, Wahab Al is about the Petrochemical producers in the GCC
countries. They are the world largest producers of the petrochemical products. In order to
compete effectively in the World market, these regions have to work together in the
petrochemical industries on small as well as on large scales. Beside this they should have to
work together in the production, marketing and R&D areas to boost the economic growth. The
concept of petrochemical industries came in the year 1981, and that was in Qatar. Saudi Arabia
has the same industry by the name of SABIC which is government owned and has played a vital
role so far in the region, and is considered as the world largest producer of Ethylene, Butane-I,
and Propylene. The other states in the GCC also start producing it in the early 1985. Nowadays,
these regions have the following capacity of producing petrochemical products: The annual total
growth will be 18 %. According to the 1999 survey there were only seven producers and in 2004
the number will doubled. The increase in number will reduce their dependency on the oil revenue
that is totally based on the oil prices in the world market. For this purpose their cooperation in
this field is very important. The famous petrochemical industries are SABIC, QAPCO, and GPIC
etc. Saudi SABIC has a capacity of producing 750,000 tons per year as compared to USA,
520,000 tones, Japan, 410,000 and Western Europe 380,000 tones per year. In order to have
economies of scale the regional coordination of the petrochemical industries is very necessary.
As far as, the export is concerned, the GCC petrochemical industries have the world largest
capacity and access to the world market. The export is likely to be increased in the coming years
due to the development in cooperation and research. However, the coordination status among the
world and the GCC is now established due the reduction in trade barriers, and the coordination
among the GCC countries is still in progress. This is because mostly of these industries are in the

hand of government which make the decision cumbersome. As far as production unity is
concerned, it is weak and the only and some other coordination is among the Kuwait and Saudi
Arabia who represent the SABIC comb inly. In case of marketing, the GCC has established some
firms for that purpose who sold their products inside and outside of the region. It is estimated
that 80% of the products is exported outside the country, while among them 50% goes to the
Asia. The two obstacles in the cooperation among the GCC countries are the raw material used
in the production i.e. Natural Gas, and the other obstacles is the Technology which is provided to
them by the outer world.
In a nutshell, these regions required integration in every field like marketing, decision making,
production and all the policies related to it, if they want to have a strong grip on the world
market. They should also promote the integration among the regional industries, and joint
research and development projects.
 Kuwait as an emerging economy in the GCC States:
Kuwait, one of the states of the Arab Gulf has an economy that is growing at a rapid rate since
1990,s. The country is very rich in oil and has the world 10% of total oil. Most of the oil fields
are concentrated in the area of Greater Burgan Field (world second largest reserves). The
economy is also dependent on the oil price as other GCC states. According to the economic
report given by Siddiqi, Moin in 2000; it says that the economic growth in Kuwait is 3.5 percent,
as well as the process of diversification (being not want to totally dependent on the oil sector)
facing some challenges is also growing at a higher pace. The encouragement of foreign
investment has also led the economy growth well above the expectations. According to the
National Bank of Kuwait the budget surplus was $3 billion in 2000, which indicates welfare
among the nations. This is why, the country’s people is enjoying free access to telephone service,

electricity, water, and employment opportunities in the public sector. About 95% of the labor
force is paid $30,000 per head. The annual price increase is about 1.3 %, which is also a good
sign of economic development, according to the 1999 report of IMF. Kuwait also decided the
investment in the oil sector and so far USA, UK and many other countries have shown there
interest in that area. This will allow the country to have an impressive use of E&D in the oil
sector, and it will also results in the expansion of the oil reserves in the northern part.
Methodology and Data Sources:
As mentioned above that such cooperation among the Gulf States had resulted in economic
development in the form of an increase in exports, GDP per capita income, social sector
improvements and diversification in oil sector. Data has been collected from World Bank and
Polity4 in order to show the increase in GDP per capita due to (independent variables like
exports as % of GDP, Political Stability and violence and Foreign Direct Investment inflow in to
the country). There effects have been shown with the help of Regression Analysis (Least
Square Method).
Saudi Arabia (Regression Analysis):
Following functions had been drawn for every country:
Gdp= f (Political stability, FDI, exports)
RESULTS:
Dependent Variable: GDP_PER_CAPITA
Method: Least Squares
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 10:52
Sample: 1996 2013
Included observations: 18
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
POLITICAL_STABILLIT
Y -5689.034 7559.963 -0.752521 0.4642
FDI_INFLOW 137.5085 483.1639 0.284600 0.7801
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 347.9325 210.7320 1.651066 0.1210
C -4387.873 8473.374 -0.517843 0.6127
R-squared 0.498616 Mean dependent var 14170.57
Adjusted R-squared 0.391177 S.D. dependent var 6427.752
S.E. of regression 5015.388 Akaike info criterion 20.07154

Sum squared resid 3.52E+08 Schwarz criterion 20.26940
Log likelihood -176.6439 Hannan-Quinn criter. 20.09882
F-statistic 4.640912 Durbin-Watson stat 0.249535
Prob(F-statistic) 0.018729
EXPLANATION:
Though the results are insignificant in terms of exports and FDI according to the data
statistically, however, the coefficient value of political stability is negative showing us that
according to the Polity4 a state is politically stable if the estimate( is near to +2.5 and unstable if
its value is closer to -2.5). Here one must note these variables are bringing a change of 50% in
dependent variable, i.e. GDP per capita income. In addition the p-value is greater then 2%. It
should be noted that from data, we can easily conclude the negativity in political stability and
less contribution FDI in their economy.
Kuwait regression Analysis:
RESULTS:
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 22:47
Sample: 1996 2013
POLITICAL_STABILITY 18910.78 12133.77 1.558525 0.1414
FDI_INFLOW -464.9878 3436.210 -0.135320 0.8943
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 1440.843 245.6132 5.866310 0.0000
C -56917.46 13813.73 -4.120354 0.0010
Explanation:
Here the coefficient value of all two variables is positively linked with per capita income though
statistically it is not significant. Here one can note that from the data the positive value of
political stability indicates that such environment has been created in Kuwait that could lead the

nation to a prosper future. In other words such stability will also result in inflow of FDI that will
benefit the youth by providing them with job opportunity. R-value is significant in a sense that it
shows that how much changes is being brought by independent variables in dependent variables.
The p-value in terms of exports indicates that exports during the last two decades had contributed
a lot to economic growth and GDP growth. It is also statistically significant.
Regression analysis of UAE:
Results:
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 11:57
Sample: 1996 2013
FDI_INFLOW 1669.364 333.5526 5.004799 0.0002
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 97.33322 42.06382 2.313942 0.0364
C 25321.35 8623.981 2.936156 0.0108
Explanation:
The above results indicate that UAE is stable politically. Secondly the significant results in terms
of FDI and Exports indicate that UAE being a business hub for the world is the best place to
invest. R-square value indicates that 80% of changes in dependent are due to independent
variables. F-statistic along with durbin Watson is also significant. Political stability is statistically
in significant though the values are positive in terms of range defined by polity4.

Regression Analysis of Bahrain:
RESULTS:
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 12:04
Sample: 1996 2013
POLITICAL_STABILITY -5889.657 2056.494 -2.863932 0.0125
FDI_INFLLOW -347.9154 172.3350 -2.018831 0.0631
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 341.8401 218.4172 1.565078 0.1399
C -8939.429 16041.58 -0.557266 0.5861
Explanation:
The data for Bahrain had fluctuation in per capita income by which we mean that during the last
two decades, we have seen a positive trend in GDP per capita. In addition it has shown some
sorts of downward fluctuation. During the downturn period FDI declines which ultimately will
become the cause of decline in per capita. Political stability is somehow showing a very negative
trend over the last two decades which can also be seen from the negative value of that particular
coefficient which in other words is statistically significant. Exports coefficient though is
positively linked with of per capita income though statistically insignificant.

Regression Analysis of Qatar:
RESULTS:
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 12:12
Sample: 1996 2013
FDI_INFLOW___OF_GDP 3821.476 2754.827 1.387193 0.1871
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 2094.887 943.9783 2.219210 0.0435
C -111910.9 50302.89 -2.224740 0.0431
Explanation:
Here one can for sure says that East Asian financial crises had badly affected the financial,
capital and FDI inflow in the GCC world which resulted in a slight decrease in per capita income
during 1998. However the nation is politically strong and stable which has encouraged Fdi at a
very large scale. All of three variables are positively linked to increase in Per capita income
theoretically.
Regression Analysis of Oman:
Results:
Dependent Variable: GDP_PER_CAPIA
Date: 02/03/15 Time: 12:39
Sample: 1996 2013
POLITICAL_STABILITY -10203.95 5411.700 -1.885536 0.0803
FDI_INFLOW 863.7073 378.1298 2.284156 0.0385
EXPORTS___OF_GDP 522.7811 169.2865 3.088143 0.0080
C -8124.029 12334.48 -0.658644 0.5208

Explanation: All of the above three variables are statistically significant showing by the value
.at the mean time value of R-square indicates that how much changes in dependent due to
independent can be seen from the results.
Conclusion:
The GCC is proving to be good trade integration among the Arab States. The expansion in the
economic growth along with the encouragement of the foreign investors will lead the economies
to flourish. As well as, this will also encourage them to improve the standard life, education
sector, health, and all other fields of life. The diversification and the integration in the small
industries will also encourage economic growth in the area. Beside this, the objectives that they
have in the GCC charter could easily be achieved. According to the IMF survey, it says that
GCC current growth model is based on the notion and dependence on oil exports which had
diverted their attention from brought in the diversification process in the sector. Secondly, the
increase in number of youth among the Arab states is an alarming situation for them to cope with
the unemployment situation and provide the youth with ample job opportunities only through
diversification. Thirdly, Kuwait and UAE are among the states that had contributed a lot to the
diversification process and HDI along with building World largest airports, seaports, hotels, and
most importantly creating an environment for the business and private class to invest in there.
Fourthly, education and economic growth and development are very interrelated. This is because
skill labor can only be created with the help of educating them which is very disappointing in
those nations though they are having high per capita income. They can also acquire such skills
and improvement in the sector though “Brain-Drain” which is a positive stance by these
countries. Lastly, if these nations want to accelerate growth, competition, productivity, skills
development, diversifying products, educating people, eradicating poverty they have to revise
policies and should be committed to bring about changes in the lives of the people.

Work Cited
i. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperation_Council_for_the_Arab_States_of_the_Gulf &
. http://www.gcc-sg.org/eng/index895b.html
ii. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES: Gartner says gulf cooperation council (GCC) countries
adopting the latest standards and technologies in infrastructure and operations. (2012).
MENA Report, Retrieved from
http://search.proquest.com/docview/923106294?accountid=27020
iii. Siddiqi, Moin A. "Economic Report: Kuwait." Middle East 2000: 36-9. ProQuest. Web. 2
January. 2015
iv. IMF survey, “Gulf Countries should diversify to sustain strong future growth”, june3,
2014.
v. Consult few Arab Students, January 5, 2015
vi. data.worldbank.org/ Web.3january,2015

Mini Research
Title:
GULF COUNTRIES COOPERATION
Submitted to:
MR. TAJ MUHAMMAD
Submitted by:
ABDUL NASIR & ZAHOOR AHMED
Roll Numbers#
207 & 245-BH-ECON-11
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS
GOVERNMENT COLLEGE UNIVERSITY LAHORE

MR. TAJ 2007

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