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Allianz Risk Pulse
                             Focus: Natural Catastrophes
  March
  2011




Natural catastrophes on the rise?
Analysis of the potentially increasing threat from natural catastrophes worldwide

 , Recently the world has witnessed a string of natural ca-
                                                                             The largest versus most fatal earthquakes in 2000 – 2011
     tastrophes, from earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, New Zealand
                                                                            Year   Region                            Magnitude     Energy factor       Fatalities
and Japan, to floods throughout Europe, Pakistan and Australia.
                                                                           2011    Japan (March 11)                        9.0             n.a.             n.a.
It would seem as though the number and severity of natural
catastrophes has increased. But is that really true? An analysis           2010    Chile (Feb 27)                          8.8                            507
                                                                                                                                           501
                                                                                   Haiti (Dec 1)                           7.0                        222,570
from Allianz experts from reinsurance, corporate insurance and
                                                                           2009    Samoa Islands (Sep 29)                  8.1                             192
economic research gives a more nuanced picture.                                                                                               8
                                                                                   Southern Sumatra (Sep 30)               7.5                           1,117
                                                                           2008    Sichuan, China (May 12)                 7.9             n.a.        84,000
The Pakistan floods in August 2010 were the worst in living memory,
                                                                           2007    Indonesia (Sept 12)                     8.5                              25
affecting millions of people and leading to over 1,500 deaths. Floods                                                                       5.5
                                                                                   Peru (Aug 15)                           8.0                             514
in the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany later
                                                                           2006    Kuril Islands (Nov 15)                  8.3                               0
that year, led to only a handful of fatalities but caused losses of tens           Java, Indonesia (May 26)                6.3
                                                                                                                                         1000
                                                                                                                                                         5,749
of millions of euros.
                                                                           2005    Northern Sumatra (March 28)             8.6                          1,313
                                                                                                                                            32
                                                                                   Pakistan (Oct 8)                        7.6                         80,361
Meanwhile, the Icelandic volcano that erupted on March 21, 2010            2004    Northern Sumatra (Dec 26)               9.1             n.a.       227,898
sent an ash cloud over western Europe for nearly a month. It caused
                                                                           2003    Hokkaido, Japan (Sep 25)                8.3                              0
little physical damage or losses for property insurers, but its disrup-                                                                    355
                                                                                   Iran (Dec 26)                           6.6                         31,000
tion to air traffic led to significant losses to the travel industry and   2002    Alaska (Nov 3)                          7.9                               0
                                                                                                                                           501
travel insurers as well as supply chains.                                          Afghanistan (Mar 25)                    6.1                           1,000
                                                                           2001    Coast of Peru (June 23)                 8.4                            138
                                                                                                                                            11
              “Terrible events like major natural catastro-                        India (Jan 26)                          7.7                         20,023

              phes illustrate the value and importance                     2000    Papua New Guinea (Nov 16)               8.0
                                                                                                                                            1.5
                                                                                                                                                             2
                                                                                   Indonesia (Jun 4)                       7.9                             103
              of insurance to society. Now is the time to
                                                                                                                                                   Source: Allianz
              help people,” says Clement B. Booth, Board
                                                                           The Energy factor shows the ratio between the seismic energy released by the
              member of Allianz SE                                         two earthquakes. For example, the quake in Chile released 500 times more
The earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of 9.0         energy than the quake in Haiti. This table shows that those regions where
was the fourth-largest worldwide on record and triggered a series          tectonic plates clash are at highest risk. Six tremendous earthquakes happened
of further events. It has claimed thousands of lives and will be very      in Indonesia in the last decade. All other earthquakes in this table – except Haiti
                                                                           – are also in high-risk zones. The amount of energy released does not necessarily
expensive for Japan, global markets and the insurance industry – not
                                                                           mean more damage or casualties. Instead, weak buildings or secondary effects
only from claims arising directly from the disaster but also from so-
                                                                           of earthquakes such as tsunamis or fires are the most common reason for high
called contingent business interruption losses. These kind of losses
                                                                           fatality rates. This was the case in Haiti in 2010, in Northern Sumatra in 2004 and
arise for example where production is interrupted at a manufacturer        will probably be the case for Japan.
due to non-delivery of parts from a supplier which has been directly       Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance
affected by the events in Japan. Contingent business interruption
claims may end up much higher than the original physical losses.




                                                                                                Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes           page 1
Insured losses increasing dramatically

   in bn US$                                                                                                                                                       in bn US$

         45                                                                                                                                                        45

         40                                                                                                                                                        40

         35                                                                                                                                                        35

         30                                                                                                                                                        30

         25                                                                                                                                                        25

         20                                                                                                                                                        20

         15                                                                                                                                                        15

         10                                                                                                                                                        10

           5                                                                                                                                                       5

           0                                                                                                                                                       0
                      1970 –1979                    1980 –1989                   1990 –1999               2000 –2009                   2010 –2019

           This graph shows the dramatic increase of average insured claims per decade.                                                         Source: Allianz




Within a week of its occurence various experts have put out their                     Millions of earthquakes
estimates of the losses. Catastrophe modeller EQECAT estimated that                   The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that “several million”
total insured losses would range between US$12bn and US$25bn,                         earthquakes occur worldwide each year, about 20,000 of which are
while risk modelling agency AIR Worldwide has put the insured bill at                 located by its National Earthquake Information Center. “However,
between US$15bn and US$35bn. Some analysts have suggested that                        the number of large quakes – those with a magnitude 6.0 or greater
the cost of the earthquake to the global insurance industry could be                  – has stayed relatively constant,” adds Markus Treml. In his view, the
over US$60bn. While these estimates are informed speculation,                         ubiquitous media cover also supports the impression that there is
Allianz and the insurance industry feel that it is too early to confirm               an increase of natural catastrophes worldwide. “We see images and
total insured losses, they do indicate the huge scale of potential                    videos of the event within seconds on YouTube, Twitter or Facebook.
financial damages associated with this event.                                         This makes catastrophes more real for us, no matter where we are.”
                                                                                      adds Markus Treml.
Japan is situated in a seismically very active region, so earthquakes
there have been a common major catastrophe, says Markus Treml, a                      While the USGS recorded twenty-two earthquakes with a magnitude
seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance. Tremors are frequently                   above 7 in 2010, all but a few thousand of the recorded 227,000
accompanied by tsunamis and large-scale fires. As a result, “insurers                 fatalities from that year came from the major quake that hit Haiti on
use earthquake risk models regularly to calculate the probability of                  January 12, 2010. The largest earthquake recorded that year was the
the damages that they insure against. The tsunami and fires must be                   magnitude-8.8 earthquake that hit offshore Bio-Bio, Chile, on Febru-
examined relative to their actual occurrence,” says Treml.                            ary 27. It killed more than 500 people, with about half of those deaths



This picture was taken by Ray Hogendoorn,
Head of AGCS claims general adjusters, when he
was regulating claims in Chile in March 2010




                                                                                                         Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes         page 2
caused by a tsunami it triggered. While the energy released by this
earthquake was more than 500 times the one that struck Haiti, fatali-
                                                                           Handling the claims process
ties were far fewer due to strict building codes in Chile dating back       , Andreas Shell, head of short-tail claims at Allianz Global Corporate &
to 1935 (and most recently revised in 2003) and lower maximum                    Specialty, says that while there is a “standard” claims process, each
shaking intensities.                                                       crisis has its own special features, which claims adjusters need to adapt
                                                                           to. For example, in the case of the Japanese earthquake, insurers need
Over the past 40 years, climate or weather-related insurance claims
                                                                           to take into account the effect of the tsunami, as well as the danger of
have increased dramatically. According to Allianz, average insured
                                                                           radioactive leaks from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Presently, claims
claims per decade have risen from less than US$5bn during the
                                                                           adjusters are unable to visit the hardest hit areas.
1970s and 1980s, to over US$40bn by 2010.
                                                                           Shell says that a key part of the process involves teams working with
                                                                           the client to develop or enact contingency plans and locate alternate
              “Clients all over the world, catastrophes all                suppliers or alternate transport routes to ensure that the financial loss
              over the world: Allianz Global Corporate &                   remains low. Ray Hogendoorn, the head of AGCS claims general adjusters,
              Specialty is used to managing large losses                   says that “the basic concern is maintaining cash flow. If a client needs
              wherever they happen. Still any disaster                     an advance payment to maintain that for their local company, we make
                                                                           those funds available. But money as such is not the primary thing they are
              poses new challenges to the claims orga-                     turning to us for – staying in business is.”
              nization and of course the client always
                                                                           Shell says that in terms of marine transport, claims for hull losses will
              comes first.“ Axel Theis, CEO of Allianz                     come more quickly than cargo losses due to the complications around
              Global Corporate & Specialty                                 cargo not being delivered to or shipped from Japan.

                                                                           “Aviation claims are likely to be limited to hull damage to aircraft on the
Most insured catastrophe losses are concentrated in the US and
                                                                           ground and damages to spare parts located in destroyed warehouses.”
Europe (60% and 28% respectively). This is because natural catastro-       adds Alexander Mack, head of long-tail claims at Allianz Global Corporate
phes have an enormous effect on areas where there are dense popu-          & Specialty.
lations and large structures, and some of the world’s most populous
                                                                            Alexander Mack does not expect many liability claims as the event will
areas are located in areas of high seismic activity or on coastal areas
                                                                           be classed as a force majeur. “Third-party claims based on losses caused
that are prone to flood and hurricane risks. As insurance cover has
                                                                           by such an Act of God are generally excluded from legal liability or not
grown for the rapidly expanding number of residential and business         insured,” says Mack. “But as we have seen after Katrina, in the aftermath
properties based in these locations, so too has the number of claims       of such a catastrophe all kind of liability claims will be raised by individu-
and payouts. Accordingly, the most expensive insurance claims have         als, companies and subrogating insurers,” he adds.
come from developed countries where insurance market penetra-
tion is very high for both residential and business property.

Katrina and her siblings
The highest financial losses in recent years have occurred in the
United States. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the third-strongest hur-
ricane to have ever reached the US and the most expensive natural
catastrophe ever, with an insured loss of some US$60bn. Nearly
2,000 people are believed to have died in the storm, and more than
one million Gulf Coast residents were forced to relocate. Up to 80% of
the city of New Orleans was flooded. The US also saw the insurance
industry‘s biggest-ever earthquake loss following the 1994 North-
ridge, California earthquake which cost insurers US$15.3bn.
                                                                           On March 11, 2011, at 5.46 UTC an earthquake of 9.0 magnitude occured near
According to a joint World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Allianz          the East Coast of Honshu, Japan. A devastating tsunami and many aftershocks
survey released in November 2009 called Major Tipping Points, the          followed.
US is at risk of even worse natural disasters as a result of rising sea
levels through climate change and increased urbanisation.
                                                                          Increased exposure to natural catastrophes in regions like the US and
According to the survey, a rise in the sea level of 15cm on the           Europe are forcing insurers and reinsurers to look at new risk models,
north-east coast of the US would in effect mean a rise in sea level of    issue cat bonds, review pricing structures and consider possible
65cm in cities such as Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia and      deductibles and exclusions in their policies. However, the industry also
Providence. Such a rise in sea level would potentially increase asset     faces difficult challenges when assessing natural catastrophe risks and
exposure from a current estimate of US$1,359bn to US$7,425bn.             liabilities in developing regions such as South America and Asia, par-
The critical issue is the impact that a hurricane could have in the New   ticularly as the population in both regions is set to grow rapidly. The
York region – potentially, the cost could be US$1 trillion at present,    United Nations, for example, says that there will be nearly 3.5 billion
rising to over US$5 trillion by the mid-century.                          people living in Asia’s cities by 2050, compared to 230 million in 1950.



                                                                                                Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes     page 3
The rise of Asian risk
Scott Ryrie, CEO of Allianz SE Reinsurance Branch Asia Pacific, points
                                                                            The economic impact of the Japanese disaster
out that cities like Beijing, Delhi, Jakarta, Manila, Mumbai, Shanghai        , Even months after the Japanese earthquakes and tsunami, it will
and Taipei are all situated in earthquake zones and are also at risk              remain difficult to precisely estimate the economic impact of the
from flooding or typhoons. In the Philippines, for instance, 62 of the      catastrophe. There is little doubt, however, that the longer that radiation
                                                                            leaks from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the worse the prospects
79 provinces are regularly hit by tropical cyclones, with devastating
                                                                            are for a quick economy recovery.
consequences. China’s seismic “danger zone” covers roughly half the
country.                                                                    Thomas Hofmann, an economist at Allianz SE Economic Research and
                                                                            Corporate Development, stresses that any assessment needs to look
                                                                            at two scenarios. “If the radiation leak can be contained and kept away
“In comparison to the US, due to the far higher population base, Asia
                                                                            from the large urban centers, and power outages do not last for several
is 590 times more vulnerable to earthquakes, 62 times more vulner-
                                                                            months, nationwide economic activity in Japan will likely be able to pick
able to flooding, and 40 times more vulnerable to tropical cyclones,”
                                                                            up soon and there will be limited overall business interruption.”
says Ryrie. Even those with low exposures to catastrophes can be hit
unexpectedly and severely, he says, as proved by the tsunamis that          “On the other hand, if radioactivity were to spread further across the
                                                                            country, this would create major economic difficulties. Large areas of
devastated countries bordering the Indian Ocean on December 26,
                                                                            national production would come to a standstill. Such a scenario would be
2004. “Hence, Asia stands to lose much more from natural disasters
                                                                            characterized by ongoing support measures from the central bank and
as further urbanisation occurs” he adds.                                    financial assistance from the state. Government debt would soar.”

                                                                            Such a scenario could lead to a slowdown in manufacturing, particularly
“Insurers and reinsurers have a peculiar problem in developing mar-
                                                                            in the automotive and electronics industries, which depend on compo-
kets,” says Ryrie. “On the one hand, there is enormous potential for
                                                                            nents supplied by Japanese firms, says Hofmann. Foreign buyers would,
selling products and services in growth markets. The downside is that
                                                                            however, try quickly to source materials from other suppliers and loca-
the industry could be providing cover for enormous risk, particularly       tions.
as the growth of residential and commercial property is not linked
to any improvement in building standards or ability to withstand
seismic shocks or strong winds,” he says.                                                 “Major catastrophes like earthquakes always
                                                                                          wreak havoc on the economy. Factories
For example, when Typhoon Nari hit Taipei in 2001 at a relatively low
                                                                                          and businesses are closed down, normal
wind speed, it caused US$500mn worth of damage. Heavy rainfall
flooded the subway network after the pumping system failed. The
                                                                                          consumption patterns grind to a halt. How-
main traffic arteries in and out of the capital were paralyzed for                        ever, eventually a major disaster can have a
weeks. The Taiwanese government subsequently spent NT6bn (USD               positive or catalytic effect, too. Once disaster relief gets
$198mn) on a flood diversion project to mitigate the damage in the          under way and funds flow in, the reconstruction effort
Keelung River basin. This project has been very successful and dem-         generates new growth and provides business oppor-
onstrates how planning can help reduce the effect of floods.                tunities for industry sectors like engineering, building
                                                                            or transportation.” Michael Heise, Chief Economist at
Ryrie says that the insurance industry needs to further develop
                                                                            Allianz SE
information standards and risk assessment tools. “There is very little
historical data in Asia with regards to how buildings are constructed,
whether they have the necessary planning permission, and if they
comply with accepted building standards. As a result, there is a
danger that insurers are pricing risk without full knowledge and are
therefore taking more catastrophe risk onto their books. Added to          understand all implications. Climate change is the factor that needs
that, risk modelling firms have much work to do in this area, since        to be most closely studied, since its implications on the future situa-
exposure data is underdeveloped.”                                          tion are the most difficult to assess.”

Addressing all risk factors                                                In order to support the growth of prosperity worldwide, insurers will
The main factor behind increasing insured losses is, very simply, eco-     continue to consider new forms of cover and expanding their pres-
nomic growth. Property values rise and areas of population density         ence in emerging markets. Allianz will also continue to partner with
expand, often in highly at-risk areas. At the same time, the insurance     policy makers and industry to further develop safety codes and tackle
density in these areas is increasing. There is also a link between hu-     climate change worldwide.
man activity and climate change, which will have an impact on storm
volatility, flood activity and on water levels and coastal regions.        Clement B. Booth is a board member of Allianz SE.
“Allianz is following all the factors that lead to increased claims from   Axel Theis is CEO of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty.
natural catastrophes very closely,” says Armin Sandhövel, CEO af           Scott Ryrie is CEO of Allianz SE Reinsurance Branch Asia Pacific.
Allianz Climate Solutions. “In addtion to risk analysis data, we com-      Armin Sandhövel is CEO of Allianz Climate Solutions.
mission scientific studies and closely work with our clients to better     Markus Treml is a natural catastrophe risk expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance.




                                                                                                  Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes        page 4
Interesting Facts and Common Myths about Earthquakes

Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance, knows                         rence of earthquakes. In general, the long-term geological processes that
almost everything about earthquakes. Apparently, there are many                          lead to earthquakes happen independently from processes in the earth’s
misconceptions and common myths about this fascinating and                               atmosphere.
sometimes horrible natural phenomenon.
                                                                                          , Earthquakes cannot be predicted. A real prediction, which would
 , The epicenter is not necessarily the point where the intensity of an                        give the (exact) time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is
     earthquake is highest. Damage can be much greater some distance                     not possible. What seismologists can do is a systematic seismic hazard
away from the epicentre – depending on a multitude of factors including                  assessment to determine the strength of seismic shaking for a given
seismic vulnerability of buildings or the soil they are built on.                        probability. This is the basis for establishing appropriate seismic building
                                                                                         codes that can – if properly enforced – prevent building collapse and loss
 , Although it may seem otherwise: earthquakes are not on the
                                                                                         of live. Authorities can also use these studies to develop emergency plans
     increase. In fact, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have
                                                                                         for an effective disaster response based on realistic earthquake scenarios.
remained fairly constant. However, during the last 20 years there has been
an increase in the number of earthquakes “located” by the increasing                      , Popular belief says, that the higher the magnitude (often referred
number of seismograph stations and improving global communications.                           to as “Richter scale”), the higher the damage. This is not neces-
In the past, many more earthquakes were barely noticed or reported only                  sarily true: again, damage depends on vulnerability of buildings, the soil
in small local newspapers. Today, pictures or videos are on the internet                 they are built on, on earthquake depth, and on whether the earthquake
minutes after a quake. In addition, in most earthquake prone areas the                   occurs in a place where much damage can be done. Many strong earth-
population and the exposed values have increased, sometimes signifi-                     quakes create little damage, because they occur under the oceans or at
cantly.                                                                                  great depths within the earth.

 , Earthquakes do not only occur at major seismic fault lines,                            , Sometimes people say that there is such a thing as “earthquake
      which is where tectonic plates meet each other. There are also                          weather” or “earthquake season”. However, the occurrence of
faults within plates, some of which are buried and not known until an                    earthquakes is randomly distributed over the year and throughout a day.
earthquake occurs on them and reveals their location. Moreover, these                    The tectonic processes have a much longer timescale than a day or a year
earthquakes tend to occur infrequently with long periods of quiescence.                  and are not influenced by atmospheric processes. What does change,
All this makes seismic hazard assessment for intra-plate regions such as                 based on the season or time of day, is the number of fatalities and the
central Europe and the eastern USA very difficult.                                       amount of damage. At night most people are asleep, during rush-hour
                                                                                         they are on the streets and during the day they are at their workplaces –
 , Earthquakes as geological phenomena are not affected by
                                                                                         and their exposure to earthquake effects changes considerably.
     climate change. Only in very special cases can weather (and thus
climate) related events like torrential rains cause or increase the occur-


                                                      Where the ground shakes – Global Seismicity




  The global earthquake activity from 1973 to 2003 shows a clear alignment along the boundaries of the tectonic plates. While black points represent earthquakes in the
crust, the coloured points stand for deeper earthquakes that occur when one plate sinks into the earth‘s mantle (it “subducts”). However, as can be seen in Europe and the
                            Eastern USA, earthquakes can also occur within the plates. Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance



                                                                                                              Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes       page 5
page 6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Please go to www.agcs.allianz.com for full details.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes
                                                   Hurricane
     Hurricane                                        Ike                                                                                                    Spitak                                       Sichuan
                                                                                                                     Heatwave
      Andrew                                         170                                                             70,000
                                                                                                                                                           Earthquake                                    Earthquake
        60                                             $38,000                                                                                             25,000                                        84,000
             $26,500
                                                       $18,500
             $17,000                                                                                    Winter                                                  $14,000
                                                                                                     Storm Lothar        $13,800
                                                                                                                                                                                                              $85,000
                                                                                                        110              $20
                                                                                                                                                                                                              $300
                                                                                                           $11,500
                                                                                                           $5,900
                                                                                                                                  Winter
                                                                                                                                Storm Kyrill
                                                                      Hurricane
                                                                       Frances                                                     50                               Yangtze
                                                                                                                                                                  River Floods
                                                                        40                                                            $10,000
                                                                                                                                                                   4,000
                                                                             $12,000                                                  $5,800
Northridge
Earthquake                                                                                                                                                                                                               Kobe
                                                                             $5,500                                                                                     $30,700
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Earthquake
   33                                                                                                                                                                   $1,000
                                                                                         Hurricane                                                                                                                     6,000
     $44,000                                                                              Wilma
     $15,300                                                                               40                                                                                                                              $100,000
                                                                                              $22,000                                                                                                                      $3,000
  Great USA                                                                  Hurricane        $12,500
   Floods                                                                     Charley
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Japan Earthquake
    25                                                                         40                                                                                                              China
                                                                                                                                                                                               Floods
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and Tsunami
        $21,000                                                                   $18,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           3,000                                   TBC
                                      Hurricane                                   $8,000                                                        European
        $500                            Rita                                                                                                     Floods
                                                                                                                                                                                                  $24,000
                                        10                                                                                                        40                                                                          Typhoon
                                           $16,000                                                                                                                                                $445                         Mireille
     Hurricane                                                                                                                                      $16,500
      Katrina                              $12,100                                                                                                  $3,400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   60
      1,300                                                                                    Hurricane
                                                                                                 Ivan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    $7,000
             $125,000                    Chile                                                   125
                                      Earthquake
             $62,500                                                                                  $23,000
                                         500
                                                                                                      $13,800
                                           $30,000
                                                                                                                                                  Indian Ocean Tsunami
                                           $8,000                                                                                                                                 Queensland
                                                                                                                                                       220,000                      Flood
   Key                                                                                                                                                                              TBC                       Christchurch
                                                                                             Haiti Earthquake                                                                                                  Earthquake
             Fatalities                                          Hurricane
                                                                                                220,000
                                                                  Jeanne
                                                                                                                                                              $10,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 TBC
             Overall Loss in MN USD                              2,000                                                                                        $1,000
             Insured in MN USD                                        $9,200
                                                                      $5,000                            $8,000
   Source: Munich RE, Swiss RE 2010
                                                                                                        $150
 Largest Natural Catastrophes 1970–2011
Natural Catastrophe Preparedness
                                                   Natural catastrophes do happen, and their effects can be great – potentially extreme.
                                                 Numerous studies have shown that a remarkable number of companies or individuals don’t
                                                              have adequate – or any – disaster preparedness plans in place.


                                                                                                                                                                “A few precautions can help protect you
                       Tips for businesses                                                                                                                      from serious losses and disruptions in
                , Step 1. Analyze your risks.                                                                                                                   the event of a natural catastrophe,” says
                  Determine the natural catastrophe perils that could
                  impact your site.
                                                                                                                                                                Lyman Munson, vice president of risk
                  Determine your degree of exposure.                                                                                                            services at Fireman‘s Fund Insurance
                  Build or retrofit accordingly.                                                                                                                Company. “Protecting your home is vital to
                , Step 2. Prepare for the event.                                                                                                                keeping your family safe and comfortable.”
                  Write your plan.
                  Gather additional information.
                  Train your team.
                  Make periodic inspections.
                                                                                                                                                      Tips for homeowners in California
               , Step 3. Post-event measures.
                                                                                                                                                                      filing cabinets
                 When catastrophe hits, the object is to restore                                                                               , Anchor bookcases and
                 operations as quickly as possible. Depending on the                                                                             to nearby wall s.
                 exposure and the impact on business, this can be                                                                                                       es, such as wate                                       r heaters,
                                                                                                                                               , Anchor large applianc
                 envisioned in a formal business continuity plan.
                                                                                                                                                 to walls using straps.
                                                                                                                                                                         on shelves; plac                                     e heavy items
                                                                                                                                                , Install ledge barriers
                                                                                                                                                  on lowe   r shelves.
                                                                                                                                                                       es and wire to                                     securely attach
                                                                                                                                                , Use closed screw-ey
                                                                                                                                                  pictures or mirrors.
                                                                                                                                                                      and small applianc                                       es to desks,
                                                                                                                                                 , Attach computers
                                                                                                                                                   table s or countertops.

                                                                                                                                                 , Install latches on
                                                                                                                                                                      drawers and cabinet doors to
                                                                                                                                                   keep contents   from spilling.




       Allianz was a major insurer of the San Francisco earthquake in 1906. Pictured
       here is the office building of Fireman‘s Fund, which today is part of Allianz Group.                                                                     Tips by: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty and Fireman’s Fund.




   Publisher                                                                                                                             Contacts
   Allianz SE, Allianz SE Reinsurance, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty                                                              Hugo Kidston                                                        Christiane Merkel
   Allianz SE, Königinstr. 28, 80802 Munich, Germany                                                                                     Global Head of Communications                                       Head of Communications
   Published in March 2011                                                                                                               Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty                                Allianz Re
                                                                                                                                         Hugo.Kidston@allianz.com                                            Christiane.Merkel@allianz.com
   Overall responsibility: Katerina Piro, Group Communications
                                                                                                                                         +44.203.451.3891                                                    +49.89.3800.18195
   Editorial Team: Neil Hodge, Richard Manson, Annika Schünemann,
                                                                                                                                         Katerina Piro
   Katharina Mauer, Carl Dill, Birgit Kressin, Lorenz Weimann, Janet Ruiz
                                                                                                                                         Group Communications
                                                                                                                                         Alllianz SE
                                                                                                                                         Katerina.Piro@allianz.com
   Links
                                                                                                                                         +49.89.3800.16048
   www.allianz.com                                       www.allianzre.com
   www.knowledge.allianz.com                             http://disasteradvisor.ffido.com/microsite/
   www.agcs.allianz.com


These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below.

Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements: The statements contained herein may include statements of                     sured loss events, including from natural catastrophes and including the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and mor-
future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions               bidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange
and involve known and unknown risks and uncertain-ties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ             rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations,
materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason        including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or
of context, the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”,   foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and
“potential”, or “continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events       (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be
may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in       more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The company assumes no
particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets,        obligation to update any forward-looking statement. No duty to update: The company assumes no obligation to update any
including emerging markets, and including market volatility, liquidity and credit events (iii) the frequency and severity of in-    information contained herein.



                                                                                                                                                                          Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes                                        page 7

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Allianz analyzes rising threat of natural catastrophes

  • 1. Allianz Risk Pulse Focus: Natural Catastrophes March 2011 Natural catastrophes on the rise? Analysis of the potentially increasing threat from natural catastrophes worldwide , Recently the world has witnessed a string of natural ca- The largest versus most fatal earthquakes in 2000 – 2011 tastrophes, from earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, New Zealand Year Region Magnitude Energy factor Fatalities and Japan, to floods throughout Europe, Pakistan and Australia. 2011 Japan (March 11) 9.0 n.a. n.a. It would seem as though the number and severity of natural catastrophes has increased. But is that really true? An analysis 2010 Chile (Feb 27) 8.8 507 501 Haiti (Dec 1) 7.0 222,570 from Allianz experts from reinsurance, corporate insurance and 2009 Samoa Islands (Sep 29) 8.1 192 economic research gives a more nuanced picture. 8 Southern Sumatra (Sep 30) 7.5 1,117 2008 Sichuan, China (May 12) 7.9 n.a. 84,000 The Pakistan floods in August 2010 were the worst in living memory, 2007 Indonesia (Sept 12) 8.5 25 affecting millions of people and leading to over 1,500 deaths. Floods 5.5 Peru (Aug 15) 8.0 514 in the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Germany later 2006 Kuril Islands (Nov 15) 8.3 0 that year, led to only a handful of fatalities but caused losses of tens Java, Indonesia (May 26) 6.3 1000 5,749 of millions of euros. 2005 Northern Sumatra (March 28) 8.6 1,313 32 Pakistan (Oct 8) 7.6 80,361 Meanwhile, the Icelandic volcano that erupted on March 21, 2010 2004 Northern Sumatra (Dec 26) 9.1 n.a. 227,898 sent an ash cloud over western Europe for nearly a month. It caused 2003 Hokkaido, Japan (Sep 25) 8.3 0 little physical damage or losses for property insurers, but its disrup- 355 Iran (Dec 26) 6.6 31,000 tion to air traffic led to significant losses to the travel industry and 2002 Alaska (Nov 3) 7.9 0 501 travel insurers as well as supply chains. Afghanistan (Mar 25) 6.1 1,000 2001 Coast of Peru (June 23) 8.4 138 11 “Terrible events like major natural catastro- India (Jan 26) 7.7 20,023 phes illustrate the value and importance 2000 Papua New Guinea (Nov 16) 8.0 1.5 2 Indonesia (Jun 4) 7.9 103 of insurance to society. Now is the time to Source: Allianz help people,” says Clement B. Booth, Board The Energy factor shows the ratio between the seismic energy released by the member of Allianz SE two earthquakes. For example, the quake in Chile released 500 times more The earthquake in Japan on March 11, 2011, with a magnitude of 9.0 energy than the quake in Haiti. This table shows that those regions where was the fourth-largest worldwide on record and triggered a series tectonic plates clash are at highest risk. Six tremendous earthquakes happened of further events. It has claimed thousands of lives and will be very in Indonesia in the last decade. All other earthquakes in this table – except Haiti – are also in high-risk zones. The amount of energy released does not necessarily expensive for Japan, global markets and the insurance industry – not mean more damage or casualties. Instead, weak buildings or secondary effects only from claims arising directly from the disaster but also from so- of earthquakes such as tsunamis or fires are the most common reason for high called contingent business interruption losses. These kind of losses fatality rates. This was the case in Haiti in 2010, in Northern Sumatra in 2004 and arise for example where production is interrupted at a manufacturer will probably be the case for Japan. due to non-delivery of parts from a supplier which has been directly Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance affected by the events in Japan. Contingent business interruption claims may end up much higher than the original physical losses. Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 1
  • 2. Insured losses increasing dramatically in bn US$ in bn US$ 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 1970 –1979 1980 –1989 1990 –1999 2000 –2009 2010 –2019 This graph shows the dramatic increase of average insured claims per decade. Source: Allianz Within a week of its occurence various experts have put out their Millions of earthquakes estimates of the losses. Catastrophe modeller EQECAT estimated that The US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that “several million” total insured losses would range between US$12bn and US$25bn, earthquakes occur worldwide each year, about 20,000 of which are while risk modelling agency AIR Worldwide has put the insured bill at located by its National Earthquake Information Center. “However, between US$15bn and US$35bn. Some analysts have suggested that the number of large quakes – those with a magnitude 6.0 or greater the cost of the earthquake to the global insurance industry could be – has stayed relatively constant,” adds Markus Treml. In his view, the over US$60bn. While these estimates are informed speculation, ubiquitous media cover also supports the impression that there is Allianz and the insurance industry feel that it is too early to confirm an increase of natural catastrophes worldwide. “We see images and total insured losses, they do indicate the huge scale of potential videos of the event within seconds on YouTube, Twitter or Facebook. financial damages associated with this event. This makes catastrophes more real for us, no matter where we are.” adds Markus Treml. Japan is situated in a seismically very active region, so earthquakes there have been a common major catastrophe, says Markus Treml, a While the USGS recorded twenty-two earthquakes with a magnitude seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance. Tremors are frequently above 7 in 2010, all but a few thousand of the recorded 227,000 accompanied by tsunamis and large-scale fires. As a result, “insurers fatalities from that year came from the major quake that hit Haiti on use earthquake risk models regularly to calculate the probability of January 12, 2010. The largest earthquake recorded that year was the the damages that they insure against. The tsunami and fires must be magnitude-8.8 earthquake that hit offshore Bio-Bio, Chile, on Febru- examined relative to their actual occurrence,” says Treml. ary 27. It killed more than 500 people, with about half of those deaths This picture was taken by Ray Hogendoorn, Head of AGCS claims general adjusters, when he was regulating claims in Chile in March 2010 Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 2
  • 3. caused by a tsunami it triggered. While the energy released by this earthquake was more than 500 times the one that struck Haiti, fatali- Handling the claims process ties were far fewer due to strict building codes in Chile dating back , Andreas Shell, head of short-tail claims at Allianz Global Corporate & to 1935 (and most recently revised in 2003) and lower maximum Specialty, says that while there is a “standard” claims process, each shaking intensities. crisis has its own special features, which claims adjusters need to adapt to. For example, in the case of the Japanese earthquake, insurers need Over the past 40 years, climate or weather-related insurance claims to take into account the effect of the tsunami, as well as the danger of have increased dramatically. According to Allianz, average insured radioactive leaks from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Presently, claims claims per decade have risen from less than US$5bn during the adjusters are unable to visit the hardest hit areas. 1970s and 1980s, to over US$40bn by 2010. Shell says that a key part of the process involves teams working with the client to develop or enact contingency plans and locate alternate “Clients all over the world, catastrophes all suppliers or alternate transport routes to ensure that the financial loss over the world: Allianz Global Corporate & remains low. Ray Hogendoorn, the head of AGCS claims general adjusters, Specialty is used to managing large losses says that “the basic concern is maintaining cash flow. If a client needs wherever they happen. Still any disaster an advance payment to maintain that for their local company, we make those funds available. But money as such is not the primary thing they are poses new challenges to the claims orga- turning to us for – staying in business is.” nization and of course the client always Shell says that in terms of marine transport, claims for hull losses will comes first.“ Axel Theis, CEO of Allianz come more quickly than cargo losses due to the complications around Global Corporate & Specialty cargo not being delivered to or shipped from Japan. “Aviation claims are likely to be limited to hull damage to aircraft on the Most insured catastrophe losses are concentrated in the US and ground and damages to spare parts located in destroyed warehouses.” Europe (60% and 28% respectively). This is because natural catastro- adds Alexander Mack, head of long-tail claims at Allianz Global Corporate phes have an enormous effect on areas where there are dense popu- & Specialty. lations and large structures, and some of the world’s most populous Alexander Mack does not expect many liability claims as the event will areas are located in areas of high seismic activity or on coastal areas be classed as a force majeur. “Third-party claims based on losses caused that are prone to flood and hurricane risks. As insurance cover has by such an Act of God are generally excluded from legal liability or not grown for the rapidly expanding number of residential and business insured,” says Mack. “But as we have seen after Katrina, in the aftermath properties based in these locations, so too has the number of claims of such a catastrophe all kind of liability claims will be raised by individu- and payouts. Accordingly, the most expensive insurance claims have als, companies and subrogating insurers,” he adds. come from developed countries where insurance market penetra- tion is very high for both residential and business property. Katrina and her siblings The highest financial losses in recent years have occurred in the United States. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the third-strongest hur- ricane to have ever reached the US and the most expensive natural catastrophe ever, with an insured loss of some US$60bn. Nearly 2,000 people are believed to have died in the storm, and more than one million Gulf Coast residents were forced to relocate. Up to 80% of the city of New Orleans was flooded. The US also saw the insurance industry‘s biggest-ever earthquake loss following the 1994 North- ridge, California earthquake which cost insurers US$15.3bn. On March 11, 2011, at 5.46 UTC an earthquake of 9.0 magnitude occured near According to a joint World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and Allianz the East Coast of Honshu, Japan. A devastating tsunami and many aftershocks survey released in November 2009 called Major Tipping Points, the followed. US is at risk of even worse natural disasters as a result of rising sea levels through climate change and increased urbanisation. Increased exposure to natural catastrophes in regions like the US and According to the survey, a rise in the sea level of 15cm on the Europe are forcing insurers and reinsurers to look at new risk models, north-east coast of the US would in effect mean a rise in sea level of issue cat bonds, review pricing structures and consider possible 65cm in cities such as Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia and deductibles and exclusions in their policies. However, the industry also Providence. Such a rise in sea level would potentially increase asset faces difficult challenges when assessing natural catastrophe risks and exposure from a current estimate of US$1,359bn to US$7,425bn. liabilities in developing regions such as South America and Asia, par- The critical issue is the impact that a hurricane could have in the New ticularly as the population in both regions is set to grow rapidly. The York region – potentially, the cost could be US$1 trillion at present, United Nations, for example, says that there will be nearly 3.5 billion rising to over US$5 trillion by the mid-century. people living in Asia’s cities by 2050, compared to 230 million in 1950. Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 3
  • 4. The rise of Asian risk Scott Ryrie, CEO of Allianz SE Reinsurance Branch Asia Pacific, points The economic impact of the Japanese disaster out that cities like Beijing, Delhi, Jakarta, Manila, Mumbai, Shanghai , Even months after the Japanese earthquakes and tsunami, it will and Taipei are all situated in earthquake zones and are also at risk remain difficult to precisely estimate the economic impact of the from flooding or typhoons. In the Philippines, for instance, 62 of the catastrophe. There is little doubt, however, that the longer that radiation leaks from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, the worse the prospects 79 provinces are regularly hit by tropical cyclones, with devastating are for a quick economy recovery. consequences. China’s seismic “danger zone” covers roughly half the country. Thomas Hofmann, an economist at Allianz SE Economic Research and Corporate Development, stresses that any assessment needs to look at two scenarios. “If the radiation leak can be contained and kept away “In comparison to the US, due to the far higher population base, Asia from the large urban centers, and power outages do not last for several is 590 times more vulnerable to earthquakes, 62 times more vulner- months, nationwide economic activity in Japan will likely be able to pick able to flooding, and 40 times more vulnerable to tropical cyclones,” up soon and there will be limited overall business interruption.” says Ryrie. Even those with low exposures to catastrophes can be hit unexpectedly and severely, he says, as proved by the tsunamis that “On the other hand, if radioactivity were to spread further across the country, this would create major economic difficulties. Large areas of devastated countries bordering the Indian Ocean on December 26, national production would come to a standstill. Such a scenario would be 2004. “Hence, Asia stands to lose much more from natural disasters characterized by ongoing support measures from the central bank and as further urbanisation occurs” he adds. financial assistance from the state. Government debt would soar.” Such a scenario could lead to a slowdown in manufacturing, particularly “Insurers and reinsurers have a peculiar problem in developing mar- in the automotive and electronics industries, which depend on compo- kets,” says Ryrie. “On the one hand, there is enormous potential for nents supplied by Japanese firms, says Hofmann. Foreign buyers would, selling products and services in growth markets. The downside is that however, try quickly to source materials from other suppliers and loca- the industry could be providing cover for enormous risk, particularly tions. as the growth of residential and commercial property is not linked to any improvement in building standards or ability to withstand seismic shocks or strong winds,” he says. “Major catastrophes like earthquakes always wreak havoc on the economy. Factories For example, when Typhoon Nari hit Taipei in 2001 at a relatively low and businesses are closed down, normal wind speed, it caused US$500mn worth of damage. Heavy rainfall flooded the subway network after the pumping system failed. The consumption patterns grind to a halt. How- main traffic arteries in and out of the capital were paralyzed for ever, eventually a major disaster can have a weeks. The Taiwanese government subsequently spent NT6bn (USD positive or catalytic effect, too. Once disaster relief gets $198mn) on a flood diversion project to mitigate the damage in the under way and funds flow in, the reconstruction effort Keelung River basin. This project has been very successful and dem- generates new growth and provides business oppor- onstrates how planning can help reduce the effect of floods. tunities for industry sectors like engineering, building or transportation.” Michael Heise, Chief Economist at Ryrie says that the insurance industry needs to further develop Allianz SE information standards and risk assessment tools. “There is very little historical data in Asia with regards to how buildings are constructed, whether they have the necessary planning permission, and if they comply with accepted building standards. As a result, there is a danger that insurers are pricing risk without full knowledge and are therefore taking more catastrophe risk onto their books. Added to understand all implications. Climate change is the factor that needs that, risk modelling firms have much work to do in this area, since to be most closely studied, since its implications on the future situa- exposure data is underdeveloped.” tion are the most difficult to assess.” Addressing all risk factors In order to support the growth of prosperity worldwide, insurers will The main factor behind increasing insured losses is, very simply, eco- continue to consider new forms of cover and expanding their pres- nomic growth. Property values rise and areas of population density ence in emerging markets. Allianz will also continue to partner with expand, often in highly at-risk areas. At the same time, the insurance policy makers and industry to further develop safety codes and tackle density in these areas is increasing. There is also a link between hu- climate change worldwide. man activity and climate change, which will have an impact on storm volatility, flood activity and on water levels and coastal regions. Clement B. Booth is a board member of Allianz SE. “Allianz is following all the factors that lead to increased claims from Axel Theis is CEO of Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty. natural catastrophes very closely,” says Armin Sandhövel, CEO af Scott Ryrie is CEO of Allianz SE Reinsurance Branch Asia Pacific. Allianz Climate Solutions. “In addtion to risk analysis data, we com- Armin Sandhövel is CEO of Allianz Climate Solutions. mission scientific studies and closely work with our clients to better Markus Treml is a natural catastrophe risk expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance. Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 4
  • 5. Interesting Facts and Common Myths about Earthquakes Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance, knows rence of earthquakes. In general, the long-term geological processes that almost everything about earthquakes. Apparently, there are many lead to earthquakes happen independently from processes in the earth’s misconceptions and common myths about this fascinating and atmosphere. sometimes horrible natural phenomenon. , Earthquakes cannot be predicted. A real prediction, which would , The epicenter is not necessarily the point where the intensity of an give the (exact) time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is earthquake is highest. Damage can be much greater some distance not possible. What seismologists can do is a systematic seismic hazard away from the epicentre – depending on a multitude of factors including assessment to determine the strength of seismic shaking for a given seismic vulnerability of buildings or the soil they are built on. probability. This is the basis for establishing appropriate seismic building codes that can – if properly enforced – prevent building collapse and loss , Although it may seem otherwise: earthquakes are not on the of live. Authorities can also use these studies to develop emergency plans increase. In fact, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have for an effective disaster response based on realistic earthquake scenarios. remained fairly constant. However, during the last 20 years there has been an increase in the number of earthquakes “located” by the increasing , Popular belief says, that the higher the magnitude (often referred number of seismograph stations and improving global communications. to as “Richter scale”), the higher the damage. This is not neces- In the past, many more earthquakes were barely noticed or reported only sarily true: again, damage depends on vulnerability of buildings, the soil in small local newspapers. Today, pictures or videos are on the internet they are built on, on earthquake depth, and on whether the earthquake minutes after a quake. In addition, in most earthquake prone areas the occurs in a place where much damage can be done. Many strong earth- population and the exposed values have increased, sometimes signifi- quakes create little damage, because they occur under the oceans or at cantly. great depths within the earth. , Earthquakes do not only occur at major seismic fault lines, , Sometimes people say that there is such a thing as “earthquake which is where tectonic plates meet each other. There are also weather” or “earthquake season”. However, the occurrence of faults within plates, some of which are buried and not known until an earthquakes is randomly distributed over the year and throughout a day. earthquake occurs on them and reveals their location. Moreover, these The tectonic processes have a much longer timescale than a day or a year earthquakes tend to occur infrequently with long periods of quiescence. and are not influenced by atmospheric processes. What does change, All this makes seismic hazard assessment for intra-plate regions such as based on the season or time of day, is the number of fatalities and the central Europe and the eastern USA very difficult. amount of damage. At night most people are asleep, during rush-hour they are on the streets and during the day they are at their workplaces – , Earthquakes as geological phenomena are not affected by and their exposure to earthquake effects changes considerably. climate change. Only in very special cases can weather (and thus climate) related events like torrential rains cause or increase the occur- Where the ground shakes – Global Seismicity The global earthquake activity from 1973 to 2003 shows a clear alignment along the boundaries of the tectonic plates. While black points represent earthquakes in the crust, the coloured points stand for deeper earthquakes that occur when one plate sinks into the earth‘s mantle (it “subducts”). However, as can be seen in Europe and the Eastern USA, earthquakes can also occur within the plates. Markus Treml, seismology expert at Allianz SE Reinsurance Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 5
  • 6. page 6 Please go to www.agcs.allianz.com for full details. Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes Hurricane Hurricane Ike Spitak Sichuan Heatwave Andrew 170 70,000 Earthquake Earthquake 60 $38,000 25,000 84,000 $26,500 $18,500 $17,000 Winter $14,000 Storm Lothar $13,800 $85,000 110 $20 $300 $11,500 $5,900 Winter Storm Kyrill Hurricane Frances 50 Yangtze River Floods 40 $10,000 4,000 $12,000 $5,800 Northridge Earthquake Kobe $5,500 $30,700 Earthquake 33 $1,000 Hurricane 6,000 $44,000 Wilma $15,300 40 $100,000 $22,000 $3,000 Great USA Hurricane $12,500 Floods Charley Japan Earthquake 25 40 China Floods and Tsunami $21,000 $18,000 3,000 TBC Hurricane $8,000 European $500 Rita Floods $24,000 10 40 Typhoon $16,000 $445 Mireille Hurricane $16,500 Katrina $12,100 $3,400 60 1,300 Hurricane Ivan $10,000 $7,000 $125,000 Chile 125 Earthquake $62,500 $23,000 500 $13,800 $30,000 Indian Ocean Tsunami $8,000 Queensland 220,000 Flood Key TBC Christchurch Haiti Earthquake Earthquake Fatalities Hurricane 220,000 Jeanne $10,000 TBC Overall Loss in MN USD 2,000 $1,000 Insured in MN USD $9,200 $5,000 $8,000 Source: Munich RE, Swiss RE 2010 $150 Largest Natural Catastrophes 1970–2011
  • 7. Natural Catastrophe Preparedness Natural catastrophes do happen, and their effects can be great – potentially extreme. Numerous studies have shown that a remarkable number of companies or individuals don’t have adequate – or any – disaster preparedness plans in place. “A few precautions can help protect you Tips for businesses from serious losses and disruptions in , Step 1. Analyze your risks. the event of a natural catastrophe,” says Determine the natural catastrophe perils that could impact your site. Lyman Munson, vice president of risk Determine your degree of exposure. services at Fireman‘s Fund Insurance Build or retrofit accordingly. Company. “Protecting your home is vital to , Step 2. Prepare for the event. keeping your family safe and comfortable.” Write your plan. Gather additional information. Train your team. Make periodic inspections. Tips for homeowners in California , Step 3. Post-event measures. filing cabinets When catastrophe hits, the object is to restore , Anchor bookcases and operations as quickly as possible. Depending on the to nearby wall s. exposure and the impact on business, this can be es, such as wate r heaters, , Anchor large applianc envisioned in a formal business continuity plan. to walls using straps. on shelves; plac e heavy items , Install ledge barriers on lowe r shelves. es and wire to securely attach , Use closed screw-ey pictures or mirrors. and small applianc es to desks, , Attach computers table s or countertops. , Install latches on drawers and cabinet doors to keep contents from spilling. Allianz was a major insurer of the San Francisco earthquake in 1906. Pictured here is the office building of Fireman‘s Fund, which today is part of Allianz Group. Tips by: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty and Fireman’s Fund. Publisher Contacts Allianz SE, Allianz SE Reinsurance, Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty Hugo Kidston Christiane Merkel Allianz SE, Königinstr. 28, 80802 Munich, Germany Global Head of Communications Head of Communications Published in March 2011 Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty Allianz Re Hugo.Kidston@allianz.com Christiane.Merkel@allianz.com Overall responsibility: Katerina Piro, Group Communications +44.203.451.3891 +49.89.3800.18195 Editorial Team: Neil Hodge, Richard Manson, Annika Schünemann, Katerina Piro Katharina Mauer, Carl Dill, Birgit Kressin, Lorenz Weimann, Janet Ruiz Group Communications Alllianz SE Katerina.Piro@allianz.com Links +49.89.3800.16048 www.allianz.com www.allianzre.com www.knowledge.allianz.com http://disasteradvisor.ffido.com/microsite/ www.agcs.allianz.com These assessments are, as always, subject to the disclaimer provided below. Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements: The statements contained herein may include statements of sured loss events, including from natural catastrophes and including the development of loss expenses, (iv) mortality and mor- future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions bidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) the extent of credit defaults, (vii) interest rate levels, (viii) currency exchange and involve known and unknown risks and uncertain-ties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ rates including the Euro/U.S. Dollar exchange rate, (ix) changing levels of competition, (x) changes in laws and regulations, materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. In addition to statements which are forward-looking by reason including monetary convergence and the European Monetary Union, (xi) changes in the policies of central banks and/or of context, the words “may”, “will”, “should”, “expects”, “plans”, “intends”, “anticipates”, “believes”, “estimates”, “predicts”, foreign governments, (xii) the impact of acquisitions, including related integration issues, (xiii) reorganization measures, and “potential”, or “continue” and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. Actual results, performance or events (xiv) general competitive factors, in each case on a local, regional, national and/or global basis. Many of these factors may be may differ materially from those in such statements due to, without limitation, (i) general economic conditions, including in more likely to occur, or more pronounced, as a result of terrorist activities and their consequences. The company assumes no particular economic conditions in the Allianz Group’s core business and core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, obligation to update any forward-looking statement. No duty to update: The company assumes no obligation to update any including emerging markets, and including market volatility, liquidity and credit events (iii) the frequency and severity of in- information contained herein. Allianz Risk Pulse – Focus: Natural Catastrophes page 7