A view on past and present energy consumption, future energy scenario ,

2. Energy scenario
Alternative images of how the future
might unfold and are an appropriate tool
with which to analyze how driving
forces may influence future emission
outcomes and to assess the associated
uncertainties

3. Top Scenarios
• Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy
Data Center, WEC
• World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on
October 26, 2004)
• International Energy Agency
• International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US
Department of Energy
• Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to
2050 Shell Scenarios
• World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook
2030, EC

4. Past
•Use natural form of energy
• Wood used as fire
•Then fossil fuel start form
• Transportation industry
• Domestic purpose
•Other energy production
•Nuclear power, hydral power
etc

5. Fossil

6. World energy consumption from
1820 to 2000

8. Present condition
•
•
•
•
Depleted non renewable resources
Problem of sustainable production
Problem of environmental pollution
Climate change

9. Energy demand and emissions have
doubled in the past 40 years

10. Effect of fossil fuel burning

11. Effect of fossil fuel
Due fossil fuel burning human being are
suffering from different diseases
• Asthma
• Lung infection
• Respiratory disease
• cancer

12. Future

13. Three hard truths about energy
supply
In our future and also now a days
1) Change in energy use
2) struggle to keep rate
3) Environmental stresses

14. Change in energy use
• Demand pressures will stimulate
more efficiency in energy use
Efficient transport
Efficient industry
Efficient buildings
Efficient appliances

15. Efficient transport
• Biodiesel engine
• hydrogen fuel or
electrical motors

16. Electric vehicles need to come of age
Global passenger LDV sales (million)
200
Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
FCEV
Electricity
150
Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline
Diesel hybrid
100
Gasoline hybrid
CNG/LPG
50
Diesel
0
2000
Gasoline
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
© OECD/IEA 2012

17. Efficient industry
• Good insulation
• Efficient motors
• Try to build their
own energy units

18. Industry must become more efficient
6DS
10
Other industries
8
GtCO2
12
Chemicals and
petrochemicals
6
Aluminium
4
Pulp and paper
2
Iron and steel
Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved Cement
0
through best available technologies.
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
© OECD/IEA 2012

19. Efficient buildings
•
•
•
•
•
Use natural heating
Insulating system must be good
Green roofs
More windows
Use shadow plants

20. Efficient appliances
•
•
•
•
Energy savers
Solar streets lights
Small heating units
Efficient Aluminum
sheets on globs

21. struggle to keep rate
• In 2015 -25
• growth rate not equals to
demand rate
• Alternative resources use
• Mostly biological(Less env.
Impacts )
• For a short time economic
shock( developing countries)

22. Environmental stresses
• If it possible to maintain
current share of fossil
fuel then pollution
increases
• More diseases
• Many sensitive
Ecosystem destroy

23. • World population has more than
doubled since 1950 and is set to
increase by 40% by 2050
• . Population and GDP will grow
strongly in non-OECD countries and
China and India are just starting their
journey on the energy ladder.

24. population range

25. Climbing in energy ladder

26. Preparing for future
• governments and companies are
positioning for longer-term alternatives
• new infrastructures build
• CSS (carbon dioxide capture and storage )
• older inefficient ones need to be
decommissioned.

27. • Awareness in public sectors is more
• Laws for environment. Degradations
• Strike rules on fossil fuel use and
other degrading energy units

28. Energy Technology Perspectives
• The 6°C Scenario (6DS
• The 4°C Scenario (4DS)
• The 2°C Scenario (2DS)

29. The 6°C Scenario (6DS)
 By 2050, energy use almost doubles
(compared with 2009) and total GHG
emissions rise even more.
 In the absence of efforts to stabilize
atmospheric concentrations of
GHGs, average global temperature rise
is projected to be at least 6°C in the long
term.
 The 6DS is broadly consistent with the
World Energy Outlook Current Policy
Scenario through 2035.

31. The 4°C Scenario (4DS)
• recent pledges made by countries to limit
emissions
• limit emissions and step up efforts to improve
energy efficiency.
• Projecting a long-term temperature rise of
4°C.
• an ambitious scenario that requires
significant changes in policy
and technologies.
• capping the temperature increase at 4°C
requires significant additional cuts in
emissions in the period after 2050.

32. The 2°C Scenario (2DS)
• This is a very aggressive target.
• 80% chance of limiting average
global temperature increase to 2°C.
• cutting energy-related CO2 emissions
by more than half in 2050 (compared
with 2009).
• the goal can only be achieved
provided that CO2 and GHG
emissions in non-energy sectors are
also reduced.

37. Four broad energy scenarios
1.
2.
3.
4.
Techno-explosion
Techno-stability
Energy descent
Collapse

38. Techno-explosion:
 depends on new, large and
concentrated energy sources
 allows the continual growth in
material wealth
 generally associated with space
travel to colonize other planets.

39. Techno-stability
 depends on a seem less conversion
from material growth based on depleting
energy
 to a steady state in consumption of
resources
and population
 all based on novel use of renewable
energies
and technologies

40. ENERGY DESCENT
 a reduction of economic
activity, complexity and population
 reason is depletion of fossil fuels
 less consumption of energy and
resources
 importance of biological resources
like fossil fuels
Forests will regain their traditional
status as symbol of wealth

41. COLLAPSE
Failure of the whole range of
interlocked systems that maintain and
support industrial society
High quality fossil fuels are depleted
Damaged the ecosystem
 it would inevitably involve a major
“die-off” of human population and loss
of knowledge and infrastructure
needed for industrialization

43. Recommendations to
Governments
1. Create an investment climate of confidence in
clean energy
2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy
efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future
3. Accelerate innovation and public
research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
© OECD/IEA 2012

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