The CfWI's flagship Horizon 2035 programme was presented at this year's European Conference for Operational Research in Glasgow.

1. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term
strategic vision for the health, social care
and public health workforce in England
Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave
Centre for Workforce Intelligence, UK
matt.edwards@cfwi.org.uk
www.cfwi.org.uk
www.horizonscanning.org.uk

2. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Rethinking health and care
workforce planning
Let’s begin with four embarrassing
admissions.

3. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Admissions
Focusing on just numbers doesn't work.
Our system doesn't know what skills
and competences are needed in future.
Our system doesn't know who is best to
provide them.
What they cost or if we can afford them.

4. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
A new challenge: Horizon 2035
What skills and
competences do
we have?
What might we need
in future?

5. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Our approach to strategic planning
Understand
the system
Explore
the future
Simulate the
possibilities
Make robust
responses
Focal
question
Transparent and participatory

6. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Consider the whole system
Health
Public health
Social care
Headcount of
over 11m
5%
Other health and
support
11%
Paid adult care
and support
27%
Volunteer adult
care and support
50%
Unpaid adult care
and support
7%
Dentists, Doctors,
Midwives, Nurses,
Pharmacists

7. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Skills and competences
Competences
Skills
FacilitationLeadershipWellbeing
Knowledge Personal
Types of skill
Level of skill
Low to High
Workforce activity
Workforce attributes

8. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
What drives the demand for skills?
Demand
for skills
Long-term
conditions
Infectious
diseases
Births
Public
health /
prevention

9. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
What drives the supply of skills?
Supply of
skills
Skill mix
Education &
training
Workforce
supply
Capacity
to learn

10. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Scenarios – Horizon 2035
Published March 2015
http://www.horizonscanning.org.uk/our-research/horizon-2035/scenarios/

11. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
A new framework
Population
Learning disabilities
Oral health
Singular demand for service
Maternal and perinatal
Infectious disease
Mental Health LTCs
Physical LTCs
Skill level: 1 2 3 4 5 6
Increasing concentration
and experience
Prevent
Enable
Assess
Plan
Treat
Rehabilitate
Relieve
Link
Unpaid adult social care workforce
Nurses
Dentists
Medical generalists
Medical specialists
Volunteer care and support workforce
Other workforce groups x10
Horizon 2035
workforce groups

12. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Framework + system = insights
Numbers
Skills
Costs
Supply
Demand
People and skills?
Workforce groups?
Training?
Education?
Money?
Future
challenges?
Skills
gap and
overlaps?
Ideal skill
mix?

13. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Model structure
SUPPLY COMPONENT
DEMAND COMPONENT
Demand sector
Wellness sector
Population sector
Skill allocation sector
Workforce capability sector
Workforce size sector

14. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Future demand for skillsSkillhours/Year
(Billions)
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Time (Year)
Probability: 80% 100%
Central estimate:

15. www.horizonscanning.org.uk
Components of change:
business as usual
Population
Wellness
Service
Productivity
2013
2035
(median projections)
By scenario

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Big questions
Will the cost of meeting future health
and care needs be affordable?
Will this be value for money?
What is the best mix of people, numbers
and skills?

17. www.horizonscanning.org.ukwww.horizonscanning.org.uk
Horizon 2035: Developing a long-term
strategic vision for the health, social care
and public health workforce in England
Matt Edwards, Tom Lyscom, John Fellows, Dr Graham Willis, Dr Siôn Cave
Centre for Workforce Intelligence, UK
matt.edwards@cfwi.org.uk
www.cfwi.org.uk
www.horizonscanning.org.uk