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Lloyd's extreme event scenarios (feb 2015)
1. Climate Shocks and Adjustment
for Selected Crops
The IMPACT 3 Model Team:
Sherman Robinson, Daniel Mason D’Croz,
Shahnila Islam, Mark Rosegrant, Keith Wiebe
London, February, 2015
2. • Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects
on diets and patterns of agricultural production
• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand
for grains for feed
• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
• Half of growth in grain demand will be for
Livestock feed
• Increased pressure on land and water
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
2
3. • Supply drivers
– Climate change
– Water and land scarcity
– Investment in infrastructure
– Investment in agricultural
research
– Policy
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
3
4. The IMPACT Global Simulation Model
• International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade
• Global partial equilibrium model
–Multimarket model
–Water models
–Crop models
–Livestock model
–Malnutrition model
4
5. What is new in IMPACT 3?
• Geographic and crop disaggregation (2005 base year)
– 58 agricultural commodities
• Prices and markets
– Three markets: farm gate, national, international
– Tradability: traded and non-traded commodities
• Land Allocation to crops
• Activity-commodity value chain framework
• New Water Models: hydrology, water basin
management, water stress on crops
• Modularity of the IMPACT model “system”
5
8. IMPACT – A Suite of Linked Models
• Modularity: “a la carte”
– Use only the modules you need
– Modules can be run in “standalone” mode as separate
models (e.g., water models)
• Linking Modules
– Model system is driven by core multimarket economic
model (IMPACT 3)
– Standardize data transfer between modules
• Information flows: dynamic interaction with core model
8
10. • Commodities can be
globally traded or non-
traded
• This option can be set
exogenously
– E.g. sugar beets
• Or endogenously through
the
following
inequality
10
Tradability in IMPACT 3
PC
Export
Price
Import
Price
𝑃𝐸
= 𝑃𝑊
× 1 − 𝑡𝑒
× (1
− 𝑀𝑀𝑒)
𝑃𝑀
= 𝑃𝑊
× 1 + 𝑡𝑚
× (1
+ 𝑀𝑀 𝑚)
< <PE PM
11. Water Models in IMPACT
• Global hydrological model (GHM) assesses water
availability
• IMPACT Water Simulation Model (IWSM) optimizes
water supply according to demands
– Monthly time step
– Domestic, industrial (linked to GDP/population)
– Livestock
– Environment
– Irrigation
• Water stress model
– Delivers crop yields to the IMPACT food module
11
12. Land Allocation to Crops
• Land types: irrigated and rainfed land
• Demand for land by crop is a function of
commodity price and shadow price of land
• Total supplies of irrigated and rainfed land are
fixed in each region (FPU)
• Shadow price of land varies to equate supply and
demand for land by type and region
– Solution determines allocation of land to crops and
equilibrium shadow price
12
13. Value Chains: Activity-Commodity
• Commodities are:
– Produced (activities)
– Traded (commodities)
– Consumed
– Can be endogenous
or exogenous
• Maize has endogenous production and demand
• Oilseeds have endogenous production and both
endogenous and exogenous demand (biofuels)
• Fertilizers is an exogenous commodity with fixed price
13
15. Baseline Model Results
• Core drivers: population, GDP, land
• Changes in technology
• Climate change:
– Suite of Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of climate
change
– Different assumptions about climate drivers:
socioeconomic and greenhouse gas pathways
15
28. 28
Production Shock Scenario Specification
Scenario Crop Region Shock
Multi-Crop Shock Wheat North America (NAM)
Europe, Russia, Western Asia
20%
20%
Maize North America
Europe, Russia, Western Asia
Brazil, Argentina
25%
20%
20%
Soybeans North America
Brazil, Argentina
12%
10%
Maize Shock Maize USA
China
30%
40%
Rice Shock Rice China
South Asia
25%
10%
Wheat Shock Wheat Eastern Africa
Western Asia
Central Asia
North America
40%
50%
60%
50%
29. World Prices (2005=1)
63% increase from ref
20% decrease from ref
34% increase from ref
8% decrease from ref
42% increase from ref
12% decrease from ref
33% increase from ref
6% decrease from ref
6% increase from ref
2% decrease from ref
3% increase from ref
1% decrease from ref