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National Economic Conditions Ray Owens April 12, 2011
Q4 3.1 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
Personal Saving Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent of disposable personal income Feb. 5.8%
Year over Year % Change Real Personal Income Real Personal  Consumption  Expenditures Feb. Personal Income & Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
DIFFUSION INDEXES:  Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity. ISM: Business Survey Indexes Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
Housing Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau/Haver   Analytics Percent Q4 14.1%
Housing Starts Single-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Millions of Units Building Permits Feb.
Multi-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Building Permits Housing Starts
CoreLogic House Price Indices Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics Year over Year % Change Including Distressed  Sales Excluding Distressed  Sales Februay Incl. Distressed Sales -6.6% Excl. Distressed Sales 0.0%
Net Absorptions & Employment Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet Changes in Employment (Left Axis) Net Absorptions, Office Buildings (Right Axis) Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons  Q1 Avg.  Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Percent Mar. 8.8% Civilian Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the January 25-26 meeting. FOMC Forecast
All Items Core CPI Feb. 2.1% Consumer Price Indexes Year over Year % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 1.1%
Current Target Range for Federal  Funds Rate Expected Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Chicago Board of Trade Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
Federal Reserve System Assets Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics Miscellaneous: $156 Treasury Securities: $476 Notes: PDCF is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility.  AMLF is the Money Market Liquidity Facility.  Treasury Securities: $1,072 Miscellaneous: $175 Miscellaneous: $176 Foreign Currency Swaps: $553 Term Auction Facility: $450 Commercial Paper Facility (CPFF): $332 Treasury Securities: $790 Miscellaneous: $110 Treasury  Securities: $755 Treasury  Securities: $476 Treasury  Securities: $777 Treasury  Securities:  $1,010 Misc.: $133 Misc: $176  Misc.: $153 Misc.: $161 Commercial  Paper Facility  (CPFF):  $332 PDCF: $38 Term Auction  Facility (TAF): $450 AIG & Bear Sterns: $114 AIG & Bear Sterns: $111 AIG & Bear Sterns: $113 Agency MBS: $910 Agency MBS: $1,001 Foreign Currency Swaps: $553 AMLF: $24 Discount Window: $87 Agency Debt: $160 Agency Debt: $147 TAF: $76 Term ABS  Lending Facility  (TALF): $25 TALF: $48 Total: $922 Total: $2,250 Total: $2,235 Total: 2,457 TAF: $20
Virginia Industry Structure Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Virginia Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
Virginia Real Personal Income Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
Virginia Single-Family Building Permits Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
Virginia Existing Home Sales Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
Virginia House Prices—FHFA HPI Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics

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Ray Owens 04.12.11

  • 1. National Economic Conditions Ray Owens April 12, 2011
  • 2. Q4 3.1 Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
  • 3. Real Gross Domestic Product Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
  • 4. Personal Saving Rate Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics Percent of disposable personal income Feb. 5.8%
  • 5. Year over Year % Change Real Personal Income Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Feb. Personal Income & Expenditures Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
  • 6. DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity. ISM: Business Survey Indexes Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
  • 7. Housing Vacancy Rate Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Percent Q4 14.1%
  • 8. Housing Starts Single-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Millions of Units Building Permits Feb.
  • 9. Multi-Family Building Permits & Housing Starts Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Building Permits Housing Starts
  • 10. CoreLogic House Price Indices Source: CoreLogic/Haver Analytics Year over Year % Change Including Distressed Sales Excluding Distressed Sales Februay Incl. Distressed Sales -6.6% Excl. Distressed Sales 0.0%
  • 11. Net Absorptions & Employment Source: Torto Wheaton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, & Haver Analytics Thousands of Employees, Quarterly Averages Millions of Square Feet Changes in Employment (Left Axis) Net Absorptions, Office Buildings (Right Axis) Notes: Office employment is the sum of employment in information, financial activities, and professional and business services.
  • 12. Quarterly average of monthly changes, thousands of persons Q1 Avg. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
  • 13. Percent Mar. 8.8% Civilian Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for the Q4 levels, from the January 25-26 meeting. FOMC Forecast
  • 14. All Items Core CPI Feb. 2.1% Consumer Price Indexes Year over Year % Change Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics 1.1%
  • 15. Current Target Range for Federal Funds Rate Expected Federal Funds Rate Percent Source: Chicago Board of Trade Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
  • 16. Federal Reserve System Assets Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics Miscellaneous: $156 Treasury Securities: $476 Notes: PDCF is the Primary Dealer Credit Facility. AMLF is the Money Market Liquidity Facility. Treasury Securities: $1,072 Miscellaneous: $175 Miscellaneous: $176 Foreign Currency Swaps: $553 Term Auction Facility: $450 Commercial Paper Facility (CPFF): $332 Treasury Securities: $790 Miscellaneous: $110 Treasury Securities: $755 Treasury Securities: $476 Treasury Securities: $777 Treasury Securities: $1,010 Misc.: $133 Misc: $176 Misc.: $153 Misc.: $161 Commercial Paper Facility (CPFF): $332 PDCF: $38 Term Auction Facility (TAF): $450 AIG & Bear Sterns: $114 AIG & Bear Sterns: $111 AIG & Bear Sterns: $113 Agency MBS: $910 Agency MBS: $1,001 Foreign Currency Swaps: $553 AMLF: $24 Discount Window: $87 Agency Debt: $160 Agency Debt: $147 TAF: $76 Term ABS Lending Facility (TALF): $25 TALF: $48 Total: $922 Total: $2,250 Total: $2,235 Total: 2,457 TAF: $20
  • 17. Virginia Industry Structure Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
  • 18. Virginia Payroll Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
  • 19. Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
  • 20. Virginia Real Personal Income Source: BEA/Haver Analytics
  • 21. Virginia Single-Family Building Permits Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
  • 22. Virginia Existing Home Sales Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
  • 23. Virginia House Prices—FHFA HPI Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency/Haver Analytics