15. GDP growth has huge GHG increase potential
CO2 emissions per capita (tonnes/year)
GDP per capita current US$
World Bank – World Development Indicators . Visualisation by Google public data explorer
27. Stop it! The 2oC commitment…
CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2°C.
Developing countries
peak in 2020 and fall at
8% per year after
Developed countries
peak in 2010 and fall at
10% per year after
Anderson K , Bows A Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:20-44
30. Concentration in innovation investment
Gross expenditure on public & private R&D , 2007
100% Percentage share of global total
80
60
40
20
0
Japan China France Korea Brazil
Canada
United United India
Germany Kingdom Russia
States
Source: David Victor, Global Warming Gridlock - citing UNESCO data
32. What to do 4: pricing not quantities
Create a carbon price 2010= 1.0
16.0
14.0
• Globally co-ordinated carbon tax
• Nationally collected
12.0 • Predictably rising
• Very long term
10.0
• No shocks
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
33. What to do 5: deals
• Nuclear fuel cycle management
• LNG infrastructure for China
• Forest and sink protection
• Grid infrastructure for desert solar concentrators
• Product and building energy efficiency standards
• Water trading and river basin management
• Carbon pricing with border tax adjustments
• Global sectoral agreements – automotive, aviation, steel
• Etc etc…
35. What to do 7: innovation strategy
Energy storage density
Hydrogen Gasoline
Energy density by weight (watt hours / kg)
10,000 Ethanol
CNG Bio-diesel
Liquid fuels Diesel
Gaseous fuels
1,000
Hydrogen
absorbing
alloy
Batteries
100 Lithium-ion
Nickel metal
10 Lead
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Energy density by volume (watt hours / litre)
Source: Toyota
41. Six time traps
1. Environmental response
2. Infrastructure
3. Innovation
4. Human behaviour
Thank you
5. Economic expectations
6. Price signals
What to do? Ten thoughts…
1. Stop it!
2. Clubs
3. Policies & measures
4. Global carbon price
5. Deals
6. No-regrets
7. Innovation
8. Adaptation
9. Geoengineering hedge
10. Future proofing
Notes de l'éditeur
Note actual growth in emissions~ 2.7% p.a. last 100yrs~ 3.5% p.a. 2000-2007
The world’s fleet of passenger vehicles is now an estimated 622 million, up from 500 million in 2000 and just53 million in 195070 million vehicles per year but just 500,000 (<1%) are hybrids and3% of UK primary energy from renewables – aim to increase it to 15% by 2020200,000 houses completed – 27,000,000 houses (<1%)
Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)
Q What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?Q What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?(Unprompted - combined answers)