Quintus Dias of Manticore Group research notes for radio presentation

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LESSONS FROM THE SYRIAN WAR & ISIS
By Quintus Dias
1. The war is a social media war. ISIS extensively uses social media
(You Tube, Twitter, Face Book and other venues) to promulgate its
values, to show its progress, to raise funds, to recruit fighters. ISIS uses
front groups to run websites and social media accounts keeping its
identity hidden. These social media accounts are global in scope. ISIS
uses propagandists to tailor messages to various audiences. ISIS uses
smart phones, computers, and extensive social media networks to
communicate news, spread is messages, and to attract new members.
2. Financial, Logistical Support, Recruits. ISIS receives funds,
supplies and logistical support from a global network of supporters. The
principal support networks are: (1) Mosques throughout the world, (2)
Muslim charities, (3) Loot from Syrian homes, business, precious
artifacts, and oil sold in Turkey, (4) taxes from controlled areas, (5)
Saudi government sources, (6) American government sources, (7) Qatari
sources, (8) Chechen sources, (9) Indonesian sources. Recruits come
from:
 The United States and England (Muslim communities)
 Europe from Islamic communities
 Indonesia and the Philippines
 Central Asia: Tadjiks, Uzbeks, Kazakhs
 The ME: Saudis, Iraqis, Qataris, Syrians
 Africa: Somalis, Moroccans, Libyans, Egyptians
3. Training. Most recruits have little military experience. Persons with
military experiences are highly valued and are frequently kidnapped and
impressed to fight against their will. Military training consists of:

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 Thirty to 45 days basic combat training: Weapons, basic
tactics and tactical formations, marksmanship
 Night fighting
 Cover and concealment
 Basic MOUT: breaching and entry, room clearing,
reinforcing buildings, observation, use of mines and
explosives
 Heavy religious indoctrination and propaganda
 Route marches, and assault formations
 Three man fire teams
 RPGs
4. Weapons and Equipments: ISIS uses American and former Soviet
bloc infantry weapons. ISIS combines desert or woodland pattern
uniforms with black smocks, turbans and face masks. Many of the
fighters wear a mixture of civilian and military clothing. ISIS has access
to tanks, APCs, rockets, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons and to light
and medium artillery. ISIS manufactures IEDs using pressure vessels
such as propane cylinders and artillery shells that are pressure switch or
command detonated by electrical signal battery circuits and or are cell
phone activated. The use of ballistic plate carriers and ballistic vests are
increasing. ISIS fighters are mandated by Imams to wear helmets and
vest protective gear.
ISIS manufactures improvised heavy mortars up to 208MM caliber.
They use pressure vessels: gas canisters, propane cylinders, fire
extinguishers as mortar shells. They use improvised low order
explosives such as mixtures of ammonium nitrate in fertilizer prills
combined with natural gas and diesel fuel. Improvised mortar shells are
finned and have contact fuses obtained from artillery shells. Some
mortars have multiple barrels and are mounted on tractors. Sighting
equipment is rudimentary or by eye.

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ISIS uses truck bed mounted recoilless rifles up to 120MM or
individuals carry 57 and 75 MM rifles for mobile operations.
ISIS uses Soviet era MRS artillery rockets up to 120 MM and small
multiple barrel mortars firing 107 or 76MM rockets much like the
German Nebelwerfers of WWII fame.
ISIS also uses NVDs-night vision binoculars or goggles obtained
through front company supply or from captured enemy stocks.
 M16s (5.56X 45)
 RPK squad automatics, AK47 rifles (7.62X39)
 PK and PKM machine guns (7.62X54R)
 Soviet pattern hand grenades
 Soviet pattern 60MM and 81MM
 Improvised 120 MM mortars
 123MM and 130MM field artillery
 Egyptian, Soviet bloc handguns in 9MM and 7.62X25 MM
 Heavy AA automatic weapons (.51 cal, 23MM, 57MM).
These are extensively used as mobile “Technicals” mounted
in AA swivel mounts (some are powered) in the beds of
pickup trucks on flat bed trucks
 Drones (quadra rotors, Israeli and French RPVs)
 Binoculars and field artillery glasses
Effectiveness and Deficiencies
ISIS has numerous deficiencies as a fighting force. They basically act
as a gang. They are very dangerous to be sure, but they rest on terror
operations, propaganda and deceptions to leverage combat power. Some
of the more outstanding deficits are-
 Poor noise discipline. Officers and noncoms constantly yell
at each other

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 Poor fire discipline. ISIS combatants do a lot of spraying on
automatic fire and waste much ammunition
 Poor route march formations. They use badly spaced or
inappropriate combat formations on approach to contact or in
assaults in open and in urban terrain
 Poor laying of artillery fires. They fire indiscriminately all
over the place and cause lots of collateral damage. They do
not appear to use artillery spotters or forward observers
 Poor staying power. ISIS is a gang with little reserves of
anything. They have little staying power and are known to
focus on hit and then run
 They can be fanatical, but fanaticism is a poor substitute for
common sense or good military strategy or tactics
 They brutalize people and commit many atrocities which
loses them vital public support
 Poor use of natural terrain and defilades to approach targets.
Poor use of camouflage. Black uniforms, gear and rifles
make them stand out
5. Security and Road Access and Control. ISIS makes extensive use
of Google Earth, satellite imagery and topo maps to delineate objectives,
areas of control and road net access. They use imagery to plan
campaigns and assaults. They carefully denote key terrain, road and trail
junctions and areas likely to provide: food, water, supplies, and useful
industrial products.
 They set up and maintain roadblocks
 They issue civilian ID to residents’ and maintain ID registries
 They set up surprise checkpoints, and confirm IDs with base
 They check vehicles for useful items and confiscate
contraband
 They execute anyone without proper ID or suspected of being
spies, smugglers or unapproved foreigners
 They frequently issue new ID to residents

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 Security is tough, extensive and ruthless in ISIS controlled
areas. They may use double security check points
 No movement is allowed at night, except to approved
civilians or to designated ISIS fighters
 Anyone showing nervousness, sarcasm, resistance, improper
ID is immediately arrested and may be executed at a nearby
ditch
6. Intelligence Operations, Rear Area Security, Population Control.
Isis maintains surveillance and imposes heavy restrictions on the civilian
population. They may move only at designated times. They are not
allowed to leave work or to travel without permits. ISIS surveys and
surveils social media networks for intelligence and to spot possible
traitors and infiltrators. They use special militia units to maintain rear
area security. Free expression is not allowed. Unauthorized meetings
are suspect and may warrant a visit by ISIS agents. Security and
Intelligence is provided by:
 Patrols in residential areas and on the trails between villages
and on the roads
 Checkpoints: some are mobile. All travelers must have and
show proper ID on demand
 Roadblocks covered by fighters and machine guns. Vehicles
and passengers are inspected
 ISIS uses deception in intelligence operations. They dress
operatives in enemy uniforms, infiltrate an area and question
residents- (1) have you alerted authorities about terrorists?
(2) Are you in the military? (3) Who is your commander?
(4) What is your faith? (5) Show me your ID! (6) Who is in
your unit? Their names and addresses? Once the operatives
obtain that information it is relayed to HQ and then ISIS
immediately executes anyone providing information wrt (1-
6). This is done out of sight of village or town residents.

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 Executions are blamed on bandits or on entire families
wavering in support of ISIS
 Public beheadings are frequent and used as a terror weapon
to cow the population
 ISIS is a theocracy. Imams’ are used to maintain religious
fervor and the ISIS state power structure through heavy
indoctrination and imposition of Sharia law
 Residents are forced to watch executions or the executioners
handiwork and killers are exulted as public heroes
 ISIS appears to rely on NAZI SS counterinsurgency tactics to
identify resisters, traitors and evaders of the impressment
gangs. They also use informants to identify opposition
cadres, and spies based on the Phoenix program or the SS
Einsatzsgruppen doctrine
 All suspected spies, infiltrators, members of resistant cells or
groups are interrogated, tortured and publicly executed
7. Indoctrination, Refugee Streams and the Caliphate ISIS aims at
establishing all Muslims under a global theocracy manifested as a
Caliphate. Some of its known features are:
 Only Muslims adhering to the Salafi, Sunni faiths are
acceptable
 Christians, Alawites, Jews, Shia and other sects are
considered infidels and must be killed
 The Caliphate is to be reestablished first in Syria and then in
the Al Andalus (Spain) and then it will go global with
branches in Malaysia, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia,
the Central Asian states and part of Western China
 ISIS uses Imams’ and religious teachers to indoctrinate the
population in group meetings, prayer sites and over the radio
and television
 Young boys are indoctrinated into ISIS fundamentalism. The
boys are exposed to gruesome executions and may be used as

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executioners of perceived traitors and enemy prisoners. They
are rewarded for carrying out executions and hailed as public
heroes
 Young boys are sent to military units to learn basic soldiering
skills and then are transferred to several units for operations
and further schooling
 Girls are also the subject of heavy indoctrination. They are
counseled to marry young ISIS fighters, to bear children, and
to provide food and medical aid
 ISIS fighters are subjected to a constant stream of
propaganda, religious exhortations, and Salafi Muslim
teachings. They are expected to be conversant with the
Koran and the life and lessons of the Prophet. Democratic
and or republican values are considered evil beyond the pale
 ISIS fighters are expected to “martyr” themselves on
command and to participate in suicide missions. Girls now
are being used in suicide missions and in assassinations
Muslim refugees from Middle Eastern (ME) or African or Asian conflict
zones are regarded as political, subversive and immigration warfare
weapons by ISIS. Many refugees in Europe are military-aged males.
Informants have supplied intelligence to Europe that many are former
fighters with extensive combat training and or experience in the ME.
The refugees receive support from-
 George Soros and his NGO groups
 Muslim community agencies
 The EU and member states, principally Germany, Sweden,
Holland and England
 Saudi Arabia
Muslim Refugees-
Muslim refugees have adversely impacted European economies,
increased racial, religious, sexual, cultural tensions to the breaking point.

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The refugees have created a tremendous backlash in Europe, Asia and in
the United States in creating intense opposition to refugee transit,
resettlement and in welfare benefits.
Muslim refuges have been ordered not to integrate, to marry and bear
numerous children and to seal off their communities from outsiders.
Many of these Muslim communities supply recruits for Muslim terror
cells and commit many crimes against the host population and take part
in atrocious mass casualty terror operations.
European women are frequent targets of mass rapes committed openly in
public. Moreover, Muslim based crime rates are rising-
 Germany and Sweden lead Europe now in sexual assaults and
rapes. Most are committed by Muslim males in roving gangs
 Assaults. Muslim gangs frequently assault intruders inside
their communities
 Murders. Muslim males operating in gangs have committed
murders inside and outside of their communities
 Property thefts. It is not unusual for Muslim males operating
in gang packs to spill out of their communities and to invade
homes, stores and to loot passerby and taxi drivers
8. Resistance to ISIS and the Global Caliphate, Perceptions.
Resistance to ISIS globally is increasing. In Syria and in Iraq the
KURDS pose a formidable resistance to ISIS. Militia units in Kurdistan
are well-equipped and trained. They maintain over watch on smuggler
trails and access routes out of Kurd-controlled areas in Iraq and in Syria.
The population largely displays passive resistance-going along to
survive. In other areas, active resistance to ISIS is fierce and
determined. Resistance organizations-
 The FSA (Free Syrian Army). This organization composed
of moderate rebels against Assad has now turned against ISIS

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 The Regular Syrian Army. The army is very well trained,
determined and well equipped by Russia with most tactical
and strategic military weapons including the use of:
helicopters, aircraft, transports, tanks (T-55s and T-72s), light
and heavy artillery up to 130MM and most small arms.
Uniforms are desert or woodland pattern and of US, Russian
and or local manufactures
 The Desert Eagle Militia. This unit is very well trained and
serves as light infantry in protecting the regular Syrian army
in MOUT or area clearing operations. They also serve as
rear area and road security units. They are well armed with
light weapons, wear woodland pattern uniforms, and use AA
and heavy machine guns mounted on pickup trucks as mobile
fire support. They wear yellow ribbon streamers to identify
themselves. Their morale is high and the population adores
them. Many appear to be well-adjusted and committed older
males. The Russians regard them highly.
 Militia alliances. Ethnic Syrians-Assyrians, the Kurds, Jews
and Christians have formed protective alliances and maintain
control of town and village based militias that are fairly well
equipped with light weapons and radios. They maintain
roving patrols, man checkpoints and liaise with the regular
army units and provide intelligence on Al Qaeda and on ISIS.
Syrian infantry carry basic Soviet era pattern weapons, basic combat
loads, load bearing gear, canteens, assault packs, combat boots, helmets
and wear boonie hats in open terrain. Regular infantry are trained in
MOUT operations, using tanks and artillery and also rely on improvised
light automatic weapons (up to 57MM on pickup trucks).
They appear well-equipped, determined and their morale is good. Their
equipment and uniforms, persons appear clean, serviceable, and orderly.
Russia-

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Russia’s timely intervention appears to have saved the day for Assad and
for the RSA. Russia’s goals were limited in scope and centered on
training, resupply, and in providing massive air support to interdict ISIS
convoy routes, to fracture its cohesion in rear areas and in degrading its
overall fighting ability and finally to prevent ISIS from selling Syrian oil
and loot in Turkey to raise funds. Russian military and civil operations
featured-
 Good planning and coordination with the RSA and militia
units
 Limited and achievable objectives
 Good relations with the RSA, the government and the local
population
 Extensive use of the world press to denote and portray ISIS
as bandits, the USA as responsible for the rise of ISIS and
global Muslim terror, and fairly impartial news reporting by
RT News and other media outlets aimed at the West
 Expert and nuanced diplomacy by Russian leaders and
military officers. Russian diplomatic efforts ran circles
around the EU and the Obama Administration leaving them
flustered, frequently incoherent and without a vision to
counter the Russian initiative in the ME
 President Putin received global acclaim as a knowledgeable
and able leader and favorably presented Russia as a reliable
ally and partner
Russian air support and military supplies and training have turned the
Syrian military around-
 Russian air support and supplies provided a well needed
breathing space to the RSA (Regular Syrian Army)
 Russian air support badly fractured Al Qaeda and ISIS
networks and degraded their combat effectiveness

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 The RSA, now better equipped, and organized has cleared
with Russian help large areas of Syria from the enemy and is
increasingly aggressive in combating ISIS in isolated areas
and in the Latakia mountains
 The RSA works well with militia units. There are good
relations between the RSA men and officers. The RSA treats
the population well. The RSA and militia are regarded as
saviors by the population
 The Assad government IS NOT regarded as oppressive by
the people. Instead of fleeing, many Syrians have decided to
stay and to join a militia and or the RSA to fight ISIS.
 ISIS and Al Qaeda are heavily criticized for terrorizing and
murdering Syrians and are increasingly seen as nothing more
than opportunistic bandits and looters
Summation
ISIS is an organized criminal or mafia gang based on terror and
relentless fanatical approaches to using power in gaining access to and
holding sway over captive populations in the ME. Their initial gains
were impressive until the regular Syrian Army and militia units
understood how they were organized, equipped, trained and how they
fought. ISIS understands the old terror dictum of killing one and
terrorizing thousands. But it does not seem to understand that this works
only for a limited time.
ISIS does not have the support of the majority of the Syrian people.
Former fighters have quit in disgust and blown the whistle on what they
really are…criminals and bandits organized and led by US proxies-
mainly Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Israel.
Their military prowess is questionable and at times extremely poor. As
a combat force they have poor fighting and staying power. They do well
enough against unarmed people or small groups. But when up against

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professional military units or well-trained militia units they have little
staying power and mostly flee to rear areas, leaving much valuable
equipment behind. Jihadi leaders are beginning to realize that spiritual
power is good, but material power and knowing how to use it is just as
critical. Prayers to Allah in the end do not replace bullets well shot.
ISIS leadership and their sponsors should be arrested and tried for
numerous war crimes, crimes against humanity, for destroying priceless
cultural and religious artifacts, and for the pitiless slaughter of men,
women and children, who harmed nobody.
Finally, the Syrian people have displayed remarkable courage and
resilience in dealing with ISIS. They deserve the respect and support of
all righteous people. They can be proud of their military and militia
units who fight for Syria and their remarkable culture and ancient
civilization. Being Muslim has nothing to do with it. Being a good
human being does. Syrians have long practiced a live and let live
philosophy and “let’s enjoy each other.” That is an excellent rule and
foundation for good living among ethnic populations anywhere in the
world. We Americans should heed that well and return to the old ways
that served us so well as a diverse people.
Russia has proved to the world that it will not condone terror from any
one, much less organized Muslim bandits. They have shown remarkable
patience and skill in fighting ISIS. Their equipment is first-rate and so
are their military skills. Putin is perhaps the best politician on the world
stage today and he conducted a masterful campaign in Syria. We should
respect Russia for that and seek its willingness to help rid the world of
terrorists and other thugs.
Moreover, American military practitioners and militia units should heed
the lessons of the Syrian Army and its militia units. American military
and National Guard, and other militia units have nothing to fear from
ISIS. In fact, most unorganized American militia units, if they use their
heads could wipe the floor with ISIS fighters.

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