Presentation by Allard de Wit, Wageningen University, at the Data Science Symposium, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2019. Thursday, 14 November 2019, Delft.

1. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
Allard de Wit, C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR
(cds.)climate.copernicus.eu

2. Climate
Change
• Probably the most climate dependent sector
• Local production fluctuates ~25%, globally <3%:
– trade / relief to balance surpluses and shortage
– Indicators on crop productivity, water use, climate conditions
are required for monitoring, policy, farmer support
• SIS Global Agriculture:
– Climate services in support of decision-making in agriculture
sector
– Support SDGs by providing credible and legitimate agro-
climatic data products
A g r i c u l t u r e

3. Climate
Change
S t r u c t u r e o f S I S G l o b a l a g r i c u l t u r e
3

4. Climate
Change
G l o b a l A g r i c u l t u r e D a t a p r o d u c t s
1. Agro-climatic indicators
Growing degree days, huglin index, cold/heat stress days, ...
2. Climate forcing data for crop models based on ERA5: AgERA5
Daily time steps, downscaled, bias corrected
3. Climate enhanced Earth Observation based indicators
Crop-specific biomass & yield, Actual evapotranspiration
4. Water based indicators
Soil moisture, surface / groundwater availability, river discharge, water stress
Global data products in support of public/private decision making and
research:

5. Climate
Change
O u r t e a m
5

6. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
SHOW CASES data stream 1
climate indicators

7. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 1 : w h e a t s o y d o u b l e c r o p p i n g
Many regions interest in double cropping of winter wheat
followed by soybean
• mid west USA, Argentina, Europe, etc.

8. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 1 : w h e a t s o y d o u b l e c r o p p i n g
Many regions interest in double cropping of winter wheat
followed by soybean
• mid west USA, Argentina, Europe, etc.

9. Guidance
Climate Indicators for Agriculture
Showcases
About | Disclaimer | Contact
Maps & graphs
1 Theme
3 Time horizon
4 Crop mask (current cropping areas)
Near Real Time
Wheat
2 Crop Indicator
1350Tsum1 (anthesis):
1000Tsum2 (maturity):
0Tbase (anthesis):
1tStart (day of yr):
Real Time (ERA 5)
Growing degree days
Early
development
Late
development
Climate derived indicators
Climate augmented EO indicators
Water related indicators
Download Community Login

10. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
SHOW CASES data stream 2
AgERA5

11. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : A g E R A 5
ERA5 based agricultural land product
• 0.1x0.1 degree (~10 km)
• Daily variables from 1979 up till 2018, possibility for near real-
time product generation with a delay of ~1 week
• 22 variables relevant for agricultural applications:
– Temperature (avg, min, max, etc.)
– Precipitation and precipitation type
– Global radiation
– Daily avg vapour pressure and wind speed
– Relative humidity at specific times of the day

12. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
CGIAR provides 80% of germplasm to the world
Argentina

13. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
38th Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial:
• 50 entries with two replications
• distributed to 150 locations in 2017
• grain yield data was voluntarily reported from 78 locations
• on 33 traits
• primarily from Less Developed Countries
• mean grain yield of 5.32 t/ha (1.1 to 10.6 t/ha)
‫لرستان‬ ‫استان‬ ،‫آباد‬ ‫خرم‬
Khorramabad, Iran, ARC

14. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬
Al Gemizah, Egypte
Gemmeiza ARC
38th Elite Spring Wheat Yield Trial:
• distributed to 150 locations in 2017
• trial climate data missing
• used coarse data so far (CRU, NASA)

15. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬
Al Gemizah, Egypte
Gemmeiza ARC
Daily climate data
AgERA5 for:
• Classification of
environments
• New traits
• Understanding
environmental
effects

16. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
،‫الجميزة‬ ‫قرية‬
Al Gemizah, Egypte
Gemmeiza ARC
Daily climate data
AgERA5 for:
• Classification of
environments
• New traits
• Understanding
environmental
effects

17. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 2 : w h e a t b r e e d i n g C G I A R
Rust tracking and early warning systems
• need granular climate data on humidity
• indicator and thresholds to be developed

18. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
SHOW CASES data stream 3
climate enhanced EO data

19. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A
Soybean plant logistics
• where?
• when?
• how much?

20. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A
Soybean plant logistics
• where?
• when?
• how much?
Grain Yield (kg/ha)
Failed crop
Super crop
2017
above normal yield
late ripening
Soybean plant logistics
• how much?

21. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A
Grain Yield (kg/ha)
Failed crop
Super crop
Soybean plant logistics
• how much soy?

22. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 3 : S O Y B E A N U S A
Actual ET (mm/dek)
super crop
desiccated crop
2017
above average
water use
Soybean farm logistics
• how much water

23. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
SHOW CASES data stream 4
water data for agriculture

24. Climate
Change
S H O W C A S E 4 : W A T E R I N D I C A T O R S
Climate based water indicators
• surface water (soil moisture,
discharge, ET, etc.)
• ground water
• water stress
• historic
• seasonal forecasts
• climate projections
• 5” resolution (10km)

25. C l i m a t e C h a n g e S e r v i c e
Climate Change
Indicators for Global Agriculture
Allard de Wit, C3S_422_Lot1_WEnR
climate.copernicus.eu
Data availability: http://global-agriculture.copernicus-climate.eu/