4G/4G+: a real game changer? - Frédéric PUJOL, Head of Wireless Business Unit, IDATE at DigiWorld Summit 2014

1. 4G / 4G+
a real game changer
IDATE Insight
Frédéric PUJOL,
Wireless Business Unit Director, IDATE
19 November 2014
Next steps towards 5G

2. LTE, the only 4G technology, is a real success…
USA, Japan and South Korea are leading
the pack
 USA: 100 million LTE subscribers and 31% of the
total mobile base
 In South Korea: 52% of the total mobile base
LTE has been adopted by the vast majority
of mobile operators worldwide
 In most cases, the migration to LTE is considerably
faster than the earlier migration from 2G to 3G
 Both FDD and TDD versions of LTE are taking off
Share of LTE subscriptions in three lead countries
(% of total SIMs by region)
LTE subscriptions by region (Q4 2013, million)
2
100%
75%
50%
25%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
South Korea Japan USA
South
Korea, 28
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, July 2014
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, July 2014
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, July 2014
Europe,
24
USA, 105
Japan, 33
Rest of
APAC, 13
Rest of
Americas,
4
Africa
Middle
East, 5

3. From LTE to LTE-A and 5G
LTE/LTE Advanced capabilities
 What does CA (Carrier Aggregation) means for MNOs and for
subscribers? Higher data rates and capacity, flexibility in
spectrum management, ability to use TDD bands
 LTE Advanced future features: D2D, Relay…
 LTE also used for fixed access
 Broadcast/Multicast component of LTE (eMBMS)
5G will be here soon (2018-2020)
but what will it look like?
 Nobody knows exactly what 5G will be…
 … but consensus on more agile, dense and flexible networks
Advanced and 5G go in delivering
ultra-high-speed access?
3
> Just how far can LTE/LTE
Example of Framework for 5G
Source: ARIB

4. What role for Wi-Fi, small cells architectures and SDN?
Wi-Fi is playing a major role in providing wireless
connection
 Wi-Fi carries 75% of the traffic generated by mobile devices in
Western Europe
 Wi-Fi-first actors appearing the marketplace
Small cells are implemented in order to add capacity in
dense areas, often together with Wi-Fi
Cloud-RAN is a trend in the radio access network
VoLTE and VoWiFi
 VoWifi a threat to MNOs?
 VoLTE an answer to OTT voice?
4
Evolution to HetNets
Source: University of Sheffield

5. What’s next for mobile networks?
Could LTE replace fibre networks?
 Not in developed countries but LTE needs fibre to connect base stations
to the core network
 But probably in many developing countries
M2M will not only use cellular networks but also
dedicated technologies & unlicensed spectrum
How should we be thinking about fixed-mobile
convergence vs. competition?
 Many flavors of hybrid network: wireless+wireline, broadcast+unicast,
satellite+terrestrial
 eMBMS brings real multicast/broadcast capabilities to LTE
Should we be worried about a spectrum shortage?
 Probably not in Europe until 2020: 700 MHz band in 2018/2020. Maybe
in the USA and Japan
 New bands, spectrum sharing, importance of unlicensed spectrum
5
> LTE will represent 75% of mobile
subscriptions in 2015-2016 in South
Korea, in 2016-2017 in the US, and in
2018-2019 in Europe
LTE subscription forecasts (2014-2018, million)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia-Pacific Western Europe
Central & Eastern Europe North America
Latin America Africa Middle East
Source: IDATE, in World LTE market, July 2014