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Will the Device be King?

Preliminary Remarks
Yves GASSOT
After “Who is financing the Internet of the Future?” (DigiWorld Summit 2010)
         … “Will the Device be King?”

                      #2 Transit & CDN pricing     #3 Peering                                 #5 Managed services

     Managed services
         Revenue sharing for managed services




      Content        Hosting
                                    Telco 1      Telco …         Telco n             ISP        Device         End-user
      provider             CDN

           CDN                                                  Peering ≈ 0€
                                                                                       Internet subscription
                                                                   Transit peering


                                                                                 Revenue for OTT services
     Open Internet
    #1 Content economics                                                             #4 Unlimited traffic


                                                                                                                          2
Will the Device be King?
A hot issue
 ► August      Google buys Motorola Mobility
 ► August      HP announces the end of its PC & Smart Devices ambitions

 ► September   Patents’war between Samsung and Apple
 ► September   Amazon presents its first tablet

 ► October     Apple revenues exceeds 100 billion USD… and 4S

 ► November    Philips leaves the TV market
 ► November    HTC is #1 on the US smartphone market
 ► November    Ericsson leaves the Sony-Ericsson JV

                                                            … What’s next?
                                                                             3
Will the Device be King?
1 – What’s next ?
                                                Smartphones: +110 millions – 3Q11
                                                Tablets & e-readers: <50 millions in 2011
                                                Lap-top
                                                Net-book    < 200 millions in 2011
                                                Ultra-PC
                                                Videogame devices: 40 millions
                                                S.T.Boxes : 193 millions
                                                Smart TV: 45 millions


… What’s next?
  Dual screen ecosytem/multi devices/ Personnal wifi (new usages and cohabitation issues)
  Personnal … memory/ trust and privacy (intimacy, eProsthesis)
  Mix Personnal consumption - Business usages (consumerisation) …
                                                                                             4
Will the Device be King?
2 – Impacts on the Business models

          What are the stakes of smart devices on the business models of…




                                  Can smart devices
                                 save the   Press?              The Smartphones:
   Boxes & Smart TV                                                a commodity
                               Tablets vs. eReaders            in the Future of the
          facing
  Multiscreen Strategies       Place of the independent       Mobile Internet?
                               kiosk vs. Internet giants’s
  IPTV & Set top boxes vs.     platforms?                    Is there a risk of
  Smart TV, vs OTT boxes…                                    disintermediation for the
                                                             cellcos ?




                                                                                         5
Will the Device be King?
 3 – The other check points of the Cloud…


OS

                                            Web-OS
                            OS




AppStores/Markets




Meta-distributor

Social Networks/platforms


Web –HTML5                                           6
Will the Device be King?
… and the telcos?
     The ecosystems of the Internet, as seen by telcos




     Source: DigiWorld YearBook
                                                         7
… and 8 Executive Seminars and Associate Seminars
  Executive seminars – Wednesday November 16
         NextGen Networks 1: Latest questions about FTTH


         NextGen Networks 2 – LTE: What’s changing mobile IP?


         Content distribution & Multiscreen strategies


         Trans-Atlantic Telecom Dialog – Net Neutrality: Act II


         Cities’ smart and gitial living policies


         Green ICT for a green economy


                                                    Associate seminars – Thursday November 17
                                                                         DigiWorld Game Summit –
                                 NextGen game platforms: another step into the Cloud and ubiquity

                                                          Enabling patient autonomy and in-situ care
                                                                                                       8
Have a great Summit !




                        9

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Preliminary Remarks of IDATE during DigiWorld Summit

  • 1. Will the Device be King? Preliminary Remarks Yves GASSOT
  • 2. After “Who is financing the Internet of the Future?” (DigiWorld Summit 2010) … “Will the Device be King?” #2 Transit & CDN pricing #3 Peering #5 Managed services Managed services Revenue sharing for managed services Content Hosting Telco 1 Telco … Telco n ISP Device End-user provider CDN CDN Peering ≈ 0€ Internet subscription Transit peering Revenue for OTT services Open Internet #1 Content economics #4 Unlimited traffic 2
  • 3. Will the Device be King? A hot issue ► August Google buys Motorola Mobility ► August HP announces the end of its PC & Smart Devices ambitions ► September Patents’war between Samsung and Apple ► September Amazon presents its first tablet ► October Apple revenues exceeds 100 billion USD… and 4S ► November Philips leaves the TV market ► November HTC is #1 on the US smartphone market ► November Ericsson leaves the Sony-Ericsson JV … What’s next? 3
  • 4. Will the Device be King? 1 – What’s next ?  Smartphones: +110 millions – 3Q11  Tablets & e-readers: <50 millions in 2011  Lap-top  Net-book < 200 millions in 2011  Ultra-PC  Videogame devices: 40 millions  S.T.Boxes : 193 millions  Smart TV: 45 millions … What’s next?  Dual screen ecosytem/multi devices/ Personnal wifi (new usages and cohabitation issues)  Personnal … memory/ trust and privacy (intimacy, eProsthesis)  Mix Personnal consumption - Business usages (consumerisation) … 4
  • 5. Will the Device be King? 2 – Impacts on the Business models What are the stakes of smart devices on the business models of… Can smart devices save the Press? The Smartphones: Boxes & Smart TV a commodity Tablets vs. eReaders in the Future of the facing Multiscreen Strategies Place of the independent Mobile Internet? kiosk vs. Internet giants’s IPTV & Set top boxes vs. platforms? Is there a risk of Smart TV, vs OTT boxes… disintermediation for the cellcos ? 5
  • 6. Will the Device be King? 3 – The other check points of the Cloud… OS Web-OS OS AppStores/Markets Meta-distributor Social Networks/platforms Web –HTML5 6
  • 7. Will the Device be King? … and the telcos? The ecosystems of the Internet, as seen by telcos Source: DigiWorld YearBook 7
  • 8. … and 8 Executive Seminars and Associate Seminars Executive seminars – Wednesday November 16 NextGen Networks 1: Latest questions about FTTH NextGen Networks 2 – LTE: What’s changing mobile IP? Content distribution & Multiscreen strategies Trans-Atlantic Telecom Dialog – Net Neutrality: Act II Cities’ smart and gitial living policies Green ICT for a green economy Associate seminars – Thursday November 17 DigiWorld Game Summit – NextGen game platforms: another step into the Cloud and ubiquity Enabling patient autonomy and in-situ care 8
  • 9. Have a great Summit ! 9