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David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better  Agricultural Water Management
Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
One liter of water produces  one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on average
Will there be enough water?  ,[object Object]
Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species
 
Urbanization
Urbanization ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
55
 
 
Water and Energy
Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India 4100 3500 US 1750 300 Brazil 2250 200
Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential:  42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Limits – reached or breached
Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION  Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in  developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) 840 million malnourished people remaining
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –
WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat consumption kg/cap/yr
How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains,  crop consumption doubles by 2050  2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Today
Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade 2050
Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
[object Object],[object Object],Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage:  role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance Days of storage capacity Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
Policy Agenda –  Where is there hope?
Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
Address Drivers of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Photos from Diet for a Small Planet
Political Drivers ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements
Productivity   United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield  (tons/hectare)
Increase Water Productivity ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Adapt yesterday’s irrigation  to tomorrow’s needs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies
Manage Externalities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Propositions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change,  local  politics
Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy

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Building resilience through better agricultural water management-DAVID MOLDEN

  • 1. David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management
  • 2.
  • 3. One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on average
  • 4.
  • 5. Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species
  • 6.  
  • 8.
  • 9. 55
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 13. Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
  • 14. Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India 4100 3500 US 1750 300 Brazil 2250 200
  • 15. Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
  • 16.
  • 17. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
  • 18. MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) 840 million malnourished people remaining
  • 19.
  • 20. WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
  • 21. Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat consumption kg/cap/yr
  • 22. How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains
  • 23. Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles by 2050 2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Today
  • 24. Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade 2050
  • 25. Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
  • 26.
  • 27. Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance Days of storage capacity Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
  • 28. Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?
  • 29. Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. Productivity United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield (tons/hectare)
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Copyright Yann Arthus-Bertand Earth From Above (check website).