Q2 2015 insights on consumer credit trends and the current state of the real estate market
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View the Q2 2015 recap of the Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Report, including the latest consumer credit trends and a key focus on the current U.S. real estate market.
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Q2 2015 insights on consumer credit trends and the current state of the real estate market
- 1. 1 ©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Unique insights on consumer credit trends and the current state of the U.S. real estate market Q2 2015 Highlights
- 2. 2©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. The Market Intelligence BriefTM: Q2 2015 Each chart/data set includes 3 year historic view (12 quarterly data points) MS Excel format for easy data access Reporting on Originations, Outstanding Loans, Loan Delinquency and more… Now available for purchase and immediate download! Auto Bankcard Mortgage Personal Loan HELOC HELoan Retail Card Student Loan Key Trends on 8 Consumer Credit Portfolios Visit: www.experian.com/market-intelligence-brief
- 3. 3©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Introduction Robert Stone Managing Consultant Experian Global Consulting Practice Alan Ikemura Senior Product Manager Experian Decision Sciences Today’s Speakers:
- 4. 4©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 2015 Economic Outlook Origination and Delinquency Trends ► Bankcard ► Automotive ► Mortgage ► Home Equity Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Agenda
- 5. 5©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Economic Trends
- 6. 6©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report 2015 Economic Outlook Unemployment levels continue to decline, to 5.3% in June GDP increased in the 2nd quarter by an annual rate of 2.3% Continues to show resiliency despite overseas concerns (i.e., Greece and China) -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 2Q1980 4Q1981 2Q1983 4Q1984 2Q1986 4Q1987 2Q1989 4Q1990 2Q1992 4Q1993 2Q1995 4Q1996 2Q1998 4Q1999 2Q2001 4Q2002 2Q2004 4Q2005 2Q2007 4Q2008 2Q2010 4Q2011 2Q2013 4Q2014 US Gross Domestic Product Percent change from preceding period
- 7. 7©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Bankcard Trends
- 8. 8©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 $57 $61 $59 $63 $68 $77 $71 $77 $81 $80 $74 $83 Bankcard origination volume (in $BNs) Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Bankcard
- 9. 9©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $39.4 $8.2 $2.4 $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Super Prime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Bankcard Bankcard origination volume by VantageScore (in $BNs) $0.14 $33.1
- 10. 10©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 550 560 570 580 590 600 610 620 630 640 650 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Balances O/S Unemployment Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Outstanding Trends | Bankcard Bankcard balances (in $BNs) to Unemployment rate National Unemployment Rate: Bureau of Labor Statistics 6.1% $631 5.3% $596
- 11. 11©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 30-59 DPD 60-89 DPD 90-180 DPD Charge-offs Bankcard delinquency rates as % of balances Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Bankcard 4.08% 1.12% 0.76% 0.45%
- 12. 12©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Auto Trends
- 13. 13©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 $116 $109 $115 $132 $135 $121 $127 $142 $146 $133 $138 $160 Auto origination volume (in $BNs) $577BN +10% Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Auto Loans $525BN
- 14. 14©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 18% 44% 22% 15% 1% Super prime Prime Near prime Subprime Deep subprime -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Super prime Prime Near prime Subprime Deep subprime Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Auto Loans Q2 2015 origination $ volume distribution by VantageScore YoY origination $ volume % change by VantageScore 10.2% 14.2% 15.3% 14.8% -25.7% Total = $160 BN
- 15. 15©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 28% 31% 29% 28% 34% 32% 32% 29% 23% 21% 23% 25% 15% 16% 16% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 Captive Auto Banks Credit Unions Finance Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Auto Loans Auto origination volume distribution by lender type
- 16. 16©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Finance Credit Unions Captive Auto Banks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Super Prime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Auto Loans VantageScore distribution of origination volume by financial institution (latest quarter) 21% 9%20%49% 42%21% 23% 13% 16% 50% 24% 9% 12% 29% 21% 34% 4% 0.5% 1% 0.5%
- 17. 17©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Outstanding Accounts | Auto Loans $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 $701 $766 $776 $803 $840 $858 $872 $903 $937 $952 $968 $1,003 Auto outstanding balances (in $BNs)
- 18. 18©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 30-59 60-89 90-180 Auto loan delinquency rates as % of balances 2.08% Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Auto Loans 0.50% 0.20%
- 19. 19©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Mortgage Trends
- 20. 20©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Mortgage $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 $508 $537 $515 $555 $441 $317 $253 $350 $386 $374 $433 $547 Mortgage origination volume (in $BNs)
- 21. 21©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Mortgage $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Purchase Refinance Mortgage origination volume (in $BNs) 43% 57% 73% 27%
- 22. 22©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Top Ten $ Originated (in $MMs) 1.California $120,261 2. Texas $34,012 3. Florida $26,702 4. New York $25,156 5. Washington $22,204 6. Virginia $18,587 7. Illinois $18,490 8. Mass $18,100 9. Colorado $16,533 10. Ohio $15,192 Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Mortgage Top Ten Q2 2014 Q2 2015 % Change 1. Hawaii $2,118 $5,408 155% 2. S. Dakota $755 $1,519 101% 3. Washington $11,121 $22,204 100% 4. Nebraska $1,793 $3,322 85% 5. Wisconsin $5,544 $10,133 83% 6. Rhode Island $1,005 $1,801 79% 7. Maine $1,090 $1,891 74% 8. Vermont $664 $1,146 73% 9. Mass $10,499 $18,100 72% 10. Ohio $8,882 $15,192 71% Top States: Origination $ volume limits (in MMs) for Q2 2015 and YoY % change
- 23. 23©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 Aug12 Sep12 Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 SeasonallyAdjustedAnnualRate(in000s) Conventional Sales Distressed Sales Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Home Sales Existing home sales composition: conventional and distressed Existing home sales and inventory: National Association of Realtors 15% 8% 35% Overall: +9.6% Conv: +13.3% Year over Year
- 24. 24©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Jan12 Feb12 Mar12 Apr12 May12 Jun12 Jul12 Aug12 Sep12 Oct12 Nov12 Dec12 Jan13 Feb13 Mar13 Apr13 May13 Jun13 Jul13 Aug13 Sep13 Oct13 Nov13 Dec13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14 May14 Jun14 Jul14 Aug14 Sep14 Oct14 Nov14 Dec14 Jan15 Feb15 Mar15 Apr15 May15 Jun15 (in%) SeasonallyAdjustedAnnualRate(in000s) New Home Sales 30 YR Fixed Rate Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Home Sales New home sales and 30yr fixed loan rate New home sales : US Census Bureau; 30 YR fixed rate: Freddie Mac Sales: +18.1% Rates: - 4.3% Year over Year
- 25. 25©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q42015 Q1 2015 Q2 Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | Mortgage Origination volume by region (in $BNs)
- 26. 26©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Mortgage 30+ dpd balance exposure (in $BNs) $7.3 $7.4 $7.5 $7.6 $7.7 $7.8 $7.9 $8.0 $8.1 $8.2 $8.3 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Balances O/S 30+ dpd Exposure 30+ delinquency exposure continues to decline while balances see steady increases
- 27. 27©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 30-59 60-89 90-180 Mortgage delinquency rates as % of balances Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Mortgage 1.12% 0.50% 0.84%
- 28. 28©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Best Performing Q2 2015 1. North Dakota 0.73% 2. South Dakota 1.09% 3. Alaska 1.19% 4. Nebraska 1.31% 5. Colorado 1.41% Worst Performing Q2 2015 1. Florida 4.35% 2. New Jersey 4.12% 3. New York 3.85% 4. Nevada 3.36% 5. Delaware 3.30% Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Mortgage 60+ delinquency rates by state 2.45% national average
- 29. 29©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 Months after origination 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010Q2 2011Q2 2012Q2 2013Q2 2014Q2 Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | Mortgage Vintage performance | 60+ delinquency rates as % of trades
- 30. 30©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Home Equity Trends
- 31. 31©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 Overall $23 $22 $22 $28 $30 $28 $26 $34 $37 $35 $33 $42 HELOC origination volume limits (in $BNs) Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | HELOC
- 32. 32©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 $12.0 $14.0 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q42015 Q12015 Q2 Midwest Northeast South Atlantic South Central West Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | HELOC HELOC origination volume limits by region (in $BNs)
- 33. 33©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Top Ten $ Originated (in $MMs) 1.California $5,904 2. New York $2,231 3. Penn $2,068 4. Florida $1,896 5. Mass $1,811 6. Ohio $1,558 7. New Jersey $1,336 8. Illinois $1,298 9. Virginia $1,062 10. Michigan $ 994 Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Origination Trends | HELOC Top Ten Q2 2013 Q2 2014 % Change 1. Wyoming $26 $70 169% 2. Oklahoma $79 $146 85% 3. Arizona $318 $568 79% 4. Wisconsin $487 $861 77% 5. Florida $1,242 $1,896 53% 6. Ohio $1,027 $1,558 52% 7. Arkansas $68 $101 50% 8. Indiana $468 $710 49% 9. New Mexico $59 $87 47% 10. Michigan $678 $994 47% Top States: Origination $ volume limits (in MMs) for Q2 2014 and YoY % change
- 34. 34©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Superprime Prime Near Prime Subprime Deep Subprime Overall Avg Balance Remaining Limit Utilization % Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Outstanding Accounts | HELOC HELOC average limit and balance per account by VantageScore (in $000s)
- 35. 35©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 30-59 60-89 90-180 HELOC delinquency rates as % of balances Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | HELOC 0.60% 0.25% 0.46%
- 36. 36©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Best Performing Q2 2015 1. Nebraska 0.12% 2. North Dakota 0.20% 3. South Dakota 0.27% 4. Utah 0.30% 5. Texas 0.34% Worst Performing Q2 2015 1. Nevada 1.30% 2. Florida 1.27% 3. Delaware 1.15% 4. Illinois 1.11% 5. New York 1.05% Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | HELOC 60+ delinquency rates by state 0.89% national average
- 37. 37©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 0.90% 1.00% 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 2008 Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60% 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 All scores VantageScore Super Prime and Prime VantageScore Near Prime Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Delinquency Trends | HELOC HELOC 60+ dpd as a % of trades
- 38. 38©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report Q2 2015 Summary Economy showing resiliency ► Unemployment and GDP remain stable ► International concerns and interest rate uncertainty Bankcard steadily growing ► 8% YoY origination growth; Prime segment 10% YoY ► Exceptional delinquency performance; 60-89 under 0.5% Auto growing and reaching new heights ► 13% YoY growth and over $1TN in outstanding balances ► Delinquency back to expected performance Real estate really gains traction in 1st half of 2015 ► Nearly $1TN in Mortgage originations in 2015 so far ● Widespread growth across the country; new and existing home sales up ► HELOC continuing to reap benefits of RE recovery ► Delinquency, distressed sales at low points ► Interest rate environment could have impact on 2nd half
- 39. 39©2015 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Experian Consumer Credit Trends Report VantageScore Overview VantageScore Credit Tiers Super prime 781-850 Prime 661-780 Near prime 601-660 Subprime 500-600 Deep subprime 300-499 VantageScore®, which is used by lenders and now available to consumers, is the first credit score developed cooperatively by Experian and the other national credit reporting companies. The VantageScore 3.0 model ranges from 300 - 850 with a high score = low risk. Note: Each lender determines credit quality tiers according to their own lending strategies. The credit tier breakdown is offered only as an approximation. VantageScore is a registered trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC.