Livestock & Food Markets for Food Security
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Livestock & Food Markets for Food Security © FAO: http://www.fao.org
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Livestock & Food Markets for Food Security
- 1. Livestock & Food Markets for Food Security J. Otte, U. PicaCiamarra, G. Franceschini & D. Roland-Holst FAO and UC Berkeley ETH Zuerich, 12 December 2008
- 2. Key Points • Agricultural populations are still growing in many parts of the world while the potential for expansion of agricultural land is limited. • Because of high value-added livestock can play a major role in the required intensification of agricultural production. • In developing countries, higher income elasticities for livestock products promise faster growth of farm incomes than staples. • Livestock can thus also play a major role in poverty reduction via urban – rural wealth transfers.
- 3. Poverty, Food Insecurity and the Role of Agriculture and Livestock for the Poor
- 4. Global Income Distribution (2004) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% >10.0 2.0-10.0 1.0-2.0 < 1.0 $/day 1.0 billion Developing 1.4 billion 1.6 billion 1.4 billion 2.3 billion Developed 0.9 billion
- 5. Poverty & Food Insecurity are Twins 50%ofWorldPopulation 80%
- 6. Where are the Poor/Food Insecure ? 0 500 1,000 1,500 South Asia East Asia SS Africa L America & Caribb E Europe & C Asia Near East & N Africa <1$ 1-2$ 2-10$ Million people
- 7. Where are the Poor/Food Insecure ? 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 SouthAsia SSAfrica EastAsia L.America NE&NA Urban Rural Million extreme poor Source: Ravallion et al., 2007
- 8. Agricultural Populations & Land 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 OECD Trans. LAC NENA SSA S.Asia E&SEAsia 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 Million people Agricultural population 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 OECD Trans. LAC NENA SSA S.Asia E&SEAsia 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 Ha / ag worker Ag land availability
- 9. The Role of Livestock - Household • More income from natural resources through: • Access to common land resources • Utilization of ‘waste land’ not suitable for crops • Utilization of crop by- products • Increase in output of crop production by nutrient cycling • More income from family labour through: • More efficient use of heterogeneous labour resources • Balance seasonal labour demand for crop farming • Release labour for more productive purposes (draught animals) • Use of labour for processing of primary products (value-added capture)
- 10. The Role of Livestock - Agriculture 60 80 100 120 140 160 1961 1970 2000 Dev/ping Dev/ped Index of share of agricultural GDP from livestock Source:FAOSTAT Index 1961=100 1980 1990
- 11. Elements of a Pro-poor Policy • Focus on asset classes that the poor possess, and • increase the returns to these assets, i.e. • increase asset productivity • target output to demand • improve market access • strengthen supply chain bargaining power for the poor
- 14. Food Expenditure Density PPLPI, 2008
- 15. Expenditure Density for Cereals PPLPI, 2008
- 16. Expenditure Density for Meat & Dairy PPLPI, 2008
- 17. Expenditure Density for Meat PPLPI, 2008
- 18. Expenditure Density for Dairy PPLPI, 2008
- 19. Income & Food Preferences Q4 Q3 Q2 Q5 Live animals, wet markets Wet markets, cheap cold chain Inexpensive, partially processed cold chain products High value processed and convenience cold chain products Income & consumer preferences Aho, 2005 100 Annual per capita income in USD ppp Proportion of population in agriculture (%) China India 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 0 20 40 60 80 Indust LAC NENA S.Asia SE&E.Asia SSA Tran Q1 Hardly any market participation Average income by Quintile
- 20. Bottom 3 Quintile Markets Water ICT Health Transport Housing Energy Food Market Size by Sector $2.9 trillion Source: WRI 2007
- 21. Food Markets and Poverty Reduction • The poor are highly dependent on food markets, both as producers and consumers • Areas of high food expenditure density and predominantly smallholder food production are to a large extent co-located • In the case of livestock, demand for live animals and inexpensive partially processed food dominates these markets • Improving ‘market institutions’ can therefore benefit both poor producers and consumers
- 22. An Example: The Case of Poultry in Viet Nam
- 23. Viet Nam: Poverty Rate & Density Poverty densityPoverty rate Courtesy M. Epprecht
- 24. Viet Nam: Poverty & Market Access Poverty density Accessibility Courtesy M. Epprecht
- 25. Poultry Sector Trends 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Million birds produced Source:FAOSTAT2008 HPAI
- 26. Viet Nam Poultry Keepers & Poultry 8.3 million producers, 218 million birds (2001) 94.77% 5.19% 0.03% Extensive Semi-intensive Intensive Flocks 54.23% 19.96% 25.81% Extensive Semi-intensive Intensive Birds
- 27. Ha Noi Consumer Preferences 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Local Chicken Crossbred Chicken Industrial Chicken Regular Price High Price Price by Chicken Type (VND ‘000) 0 1 2 3 4 5 Price Taste Disease risk Regular Supply Ranking of Chicken Attributes Source: Ifft et al., 2008
- 28. Poultry Flows North Viet Nam Poultry Farmers Itinerant Village Traders (farmgate) Retailers W holesalers Local/Community Market Neighbors/Villagers (farmgate) 47% 15%38% (64%) CONSUMERS (18%)(18% ) 73% 27% (19% ) (54%) (27% ) Other intermediaries 93% 7% Source: Tung & Costales 2007
- 29. Markets, Smallholders, and Food Security • Market participation by smallholders is plagued by high access costs and information failures • These threaten food security by undermining supply and investment incentives for farmers, • Promote a chronic cycle of subsistence poverty and rural to urban migration • Reduce national food supplies while increasing the urban food-dependent population • Market access reforms can strengthen low income supply chains and multiply pro-poor impacts
- 30. And, it can be done...... • Ha Noi consumers care about and are willing to pay for certified safe local chicken varieties. • Under these conditions smallholders can be recruited into a virtuous quality cycle that increases their incomes and improves food safety. ‘Certified’ smallholder ‘village’ chicken