1. Food System Dynamics in Africa:
Anticipating and Adapting to Change
David Tschirley
with colleagues in the MAFS and ABCC Consortia
Paper presented at the 6th FARA Science Week
15-19 July, 2013
Accra, Ghana

2. Institutions Involved in MAFS and
ABCC

3. Modernizing African Food Systems (MAFS) team
members: Richard Mkandawire, Nelson Ojijo, Tom Anyonge
Mwangi, Aissetou Yaye, Moses Osiru, Bernard Bashaasha, John David
Kabasa, Johnny Mugisha, Anthony Mugisha, Francis Ejobi, Johann
Kirsten, Sheryl Hendriks, Casper Madakadze, Ferdi Meyer, Lulama
Traub, John Kaneene, David Tschirley, Steve Haggblade, Duncan
Boughton
Africa’s Bending the Curve Consortium (ABCC)
members: John Taylor, John David Kabasa (MU), Steven Haggblade
(MSU), Nelson Ojijo (FARA), Elna Buys (UP), Francis Ejobi (MU), Riette
de Kock (UP), Amanda Minnaar (UP), Hettie Schonfeldt (UP, John
Kaneene (MSU), David Tschirley (MSU), Duncan Boughton (MSU)
MAFS and ABCC Members

4. Outline
• Drivers of Change in the African Food Systems
• Resulting changes in food consumption patterns
• Implications for skill requirements in the public and
private sector
• Implications for productivity, human health and
nutrition
• Anticipating and adapting to change
• Conclusion

5. Drivers of Change in the African Food
Systems
Urban, rural and total population Key drivers
• Rapid urban population
growth rates
• Income growth
• Climate change
• Globalization

6. Resulting changes in food
consumption patterns
Urbanization (3%) + income
growth (2%)
 Rapidly growing food
markets
 Changing composition of
demand
+ meat
+ dairy
+ fresh produce
+ processed foods

7. Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050
( Africa’s maize belt; by processing level)
Processing level Per capita Total
----- percent increase ------
Own production - 7% + 80%
Unprocessed + 108% + 300%
Informally processed - 34% + 30%
Formal 1 + 126% + 330%
Formal 2 (most processed) + 184% + 440%

8. Projected consumption increases, 2010-2050
( Africa’s maize belt; by commodity type)
Processing level Per capita Total
----- percent increase ------
Plantains + 6% + 100%
Cassava + 9% + 110%
Fish + 29% + 150%
…
Poultry + 58% + 200%
Beef + 66% + 220%
Milk & animal fats + 72% + 230%
Prepared food away from home + 72% + 230%

9. Sources of Growth in African Food Systems

10. Implications for Skill Requirements in the
Public and Private Sector and Shifting Focus
on Employment

11. Implications for Skill Requirements
• More post-farm skills (a)
• More private sector engagement (b)
• AET to adjust to this new post-farm, private
sector dominance
– Change in curricula
– Farm and industrial attachment / internships for
students
Need for practical, applied knowledge

12. Hand to Industrial Processing

13. More Advanced Skills Needed in Packaging

14. Changing Skills in Marketing

15. Changing Skills in Food Safety, Nutrition
and Regulation

16. Preparing students for Industrial Food Processing
Above: Frida, an iAGRI sponsored student in MSU food science lab

17. Implications for Productivity
Africa Food Staple Zones What Do These Zones Mean?
• Staple consumption varies
across zones
• Need to project
consumption (model) these
across time
• Contribute to
understanding productivity
levels necessary to meet
consumption requirements
and match skill
requirements

18. Implications to Human Health and Nutrition

19. Rapid Urban Population Associated with High
Consumption of Starch, Sugar, Fat-Based Foods

20. High Starch, Sugar, Fat-based
Consequences

21. Rapid Urban Population Growth Associated
Consuming Low Micro-Nutrient Foods and
Vitamins

22. Consequences of Low Consumption of
Micro-nutrients and Vitamins

23. Anticipating and Adapting to Change
• Africa must learn from the mistakes of other
developing countries in managing the food
systems and adjust
• MAFS to focus on supply side of Africa food
marketsassisted by the Advisory Board
• ABCC to focus on the consumer transition
associated with food systems transition

24. Conclusions (1)
• Urbanization & income growth
– Key drivers of change in the African food systems
the next 40 years
• More food will be required
• Different food will be required
– More processed
– More perishable
– Better packaged
– More ready to eat
– Higher quality & safety standards

25. Conclusions (2)
• The new food characteristics will require three
responses:
– African AET institutions will need to produce a
different kind of graduate
• More technical skills
• More applied knowledge
• More problem-solving skills
– Diets will be too high in energy, fat, and sugar
• obesity, heart disease and diabetes!!
– Many processed foods will have fewer
vitamins, minerals and micronutrients
• serious nutrition and public health concerns

26. Conclusions (3)
• All these will require
– Collaborative private & public sector intervention
– Focused on key education, action research and
knowledge dissemination areas
• MAFS and ABCC intend to be among those
informing these interventions

27. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING