cours Mobilité the SDS - jour 1

1. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
http://gabrielplassat.fr
Mobility & Transportation
System for the Future
Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere
In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …

2. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr
http://gabrielplassat.fr
Histoire : comment en sommes nous arrivés là ?
Le numérique, une révolution terminée
Les superpouvoirs des plateformes
• En groupe / Créer un service de Mobilité
REPAS
La Fabrique des Mobilités, innover en écosystème
• 20 Questions (note)

3. Business Models
Multi modality
Real time
Pollutions
Industry
GHG
Commuter
Data
SmartPhone
Physical meeting
VEHICLE
ENERGY Infrastructure
Future of Work
Hubs

4. http://transportsdufutur.typepad.fr

5. Horse > Car > ?

8. Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone …
moins de TC :
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10 20 30 40 50
Per Capita GDP @ PPP
VehiclesPer1000People
Vehicle Density vs. Income
(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)

9. 4 more free time in 100 years
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
aujourd'hui début siècle
.000 hours
TODAY 1900

10. Baku, Azerbaijan

11. From ultra deep
exploration
To ultra deep
conversion
Is fuel expensive ?
1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ
Oil and fuels
High Technology,
More and more risky,
High characteristics
(energetic density in volum)
Without any public recognition
At a very LOW PRICE !!

12. The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition:
variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price
with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact,
in two waves:
1. explosion in the number of pathways,
2. specialization.
1st Wave:
• 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments
• Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2,
• Electricity (s) with variable performances,
• Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management,
With multiple solutions in most cases:
actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive
Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure,
difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway
=> The first wave could be long ...
The fundamentals, Energy

13. Shanghai, China

14. 4000 engines / day
Millisecond, milligram,
Cubic Millimeter of fuel
Micron machined
120 000 parts identical but all different
5 years warranty – 100 000 km
Full Energy in 3 minutes
20+/- 0.5°C
Very low emissions and consumption / kWh
Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine
Particules
NOx
HC
CO
EURO III
EURO 0
EURO -1
EURO I
EURO II
EURO IV
18
14,4
11,2
14
2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10
5,0
3,5
8,0
7,0
0,02 0,660,46
4,5
4,0
2,1
1,5
EURO V2,0

15. OEM

16. time
Fuel Consumption
Reduction due to
Technical progress
But real progress are null :
Accessories (€ benefits)
Pseudo performance (€ benefits)
Constraints emissions / safety.
60 years of difference and same FC …
Progress, but for whom?

17. 50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Puiss(kW)
Prix (€)
E
E
E
ET
D
E
D D
D
D
D
D
D
E
E
D
Power (maxi)
Is easy to sell !
1200
1250
1300
1350
1400
1450
1500
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
PSA
BMW
TOYOTA
Prix (€)
Masse(kg)
The car is sold by kilo,
no vehicle manufacturer sell a
car lighter and more expensive
D D
D
D
D
D
E
EE
ET

18. time
Fuelcons
Potentiel of
Technical benefits
Marketing
mass
Real progress
From "new needs" of consumers :
Comfort, safety, 4x4
Increase "pseudo-performance"
YESTERDAY
The fundamental
•Power (max, so unused by the client ...)
•Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant)
•Respecting standards (Euro, security)
•While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell
time
Fuelcons
Reduction in Marketing mass
Isoperformance => "90g Now"
no extra cost
More Marketing Mass
More technology
"My minivan hybrid"
TOMORROW
ou

20. NEW Veh
All Veh
1 to 3 Millions
Drivers out of
Norm :
-insurance,
-Permit
-Technical
control
years

21. an « old problem »

22. Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI)
Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG
Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects :
Diversification (alternative to fossile)
+
GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4)
+
Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X)
=> Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient
=> Need to optimise also the SYSTEM
Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency

23. New
Technology
New Vehicle on the road :
• €,
• too slow !
• If less FC then more km !
TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions
GHG, Air Quality AQ

24. THE END

26. Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the
transition from horse to the automobile
Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species
after writing and printing
Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal
and steel , and thermal and electrical machines ,
digital is the new matrix ».

27. +
Network Tool for simplification

28. par @15marches, Stéphane Schultz

29. Mobility
Immobility
Activity
MutationS

30. 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System
The meeting, in a given area, of a user and …
an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network,
a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available
in own account or for others, property or shares,
an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban
planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area,
logistics platform,
and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will,
tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, …
A Mobility System allows
In order to realise an activity.

33. Mono usage
2-3 roues …
From multi-use… Fashion clothing
Walk,
Bike, scooter
Vélib’
Car
Car sharing
Location
Autolib’
Carpooling Taxi
Transp.
On demand
Bus, tram
métro
taxi
Individual association business collective
Public
Semi public
Private

34. Autopartag
e
entre part.
Autop.
« opéré »
Flotte de voiture
« opérée »
Vélo
Libre
serv.
Voiture
possédée
Integration / complexification for
operators
Integration /
Simplification
For users

35. How to engage these changement quickly ?
Better utilisa°
Of public transp.

36. Autolib
Vélib
CarSharingPeer2 Peer
CarPooling
YesterdayToday Tomorrow
Public = private
Indiv = Collective => « free seat market »
Simple & real time access
(insurance, inscrip°…)
Simple & real time exit
(payment, reputa°)

37. + 1% / year
Connexion 1/8 years
Incremental
+ 10-100% / year
Daily connexion
Change Mobility behavior

41. PLATFORM
North America Europe Africa & Latin
America
Asia
Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015

44. Source: Nicolas COLIN The Family, Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age 2018

49. How are we moving ? v1.0 (publ.)

50. How are we moving ? v2.0 (private)

52. Application
Digital routes …
« Bikability »
How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)

54. Identify &
Synchronise
Main competences
Industry
Behavior
Skill
acceptability
City

55. Example Ha:Mo by Toyota

56. Car owned
Car non-owned
less km
More pass/veh
Car non-owned
And operated
less km
More pass/veh
More efficient

57. Service Mobility brings :
•Non-owned car
•With New specifications
•Used by citizens but not owned
•Shared & operated
•Using other energy
•And much more efficient

58. I

59. I

60. I

61. Driverless Cities

63. Key players in the field of mobility ?
What innovations ?
Create a mobility service (Business Canvas) : 11h30 => 14h30
1.Ideation, Business Model, go 2 market,
2.Strategy, growth => business canvas completed
3.Pitch 14h30 => 14h50
Some ideas ?! 
• helicopter, e-scooters, …
• Childrens / school, sports …
• Tourism, deasables person
• Cooperative in rural area
• Google city
• autonomous shuttle : road, river, train
• Co-walking for children, for olderly people,
• Bike bus,
• Food Delivery in the train, bus, stations, car, …
• Energy delivery in your parking, house, …

66. pers.km (flux)
Billions City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL 700
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
/
pers / vehicle
=
City Extra
urban
Long
dist.
TOTAL
PC
PC serv.
Train
Bus
Bike
2 W
2 W serv
TOTAL
vehicle.km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
gCO2/km – MJ/km
combustion
combustion
+ electricity
electricity
Utilisation (% distance)
average
gCO2/km – MJ/km
X =
X
=
MTCO2 – MJ
By energy
By vehicle
ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)

67. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
800,0
900,0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
March
Voiture
VUL
Camion
325
Flux de véhicule
(Md véh.km)
Flux de voyageur
(Md voy.km) et
de Marchandises
(G T.km)
343
377
711
790
750
425 428
300
77 85
60
24
22
27
pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux)
Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2
% flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15
Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030
% flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0
% flux by Bus 6 10 15

68. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
71,2
17,7
32,1
40,6
21,9
10,1
14,5
11
3,5
121
72
29
Voyageurs
VUL
March
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Voyageurs
VUL
March
38,5 1
24,5 2
12
5
CONSOMMATIONS
ENERGETIQUES en MTEP
(liquide/gaz et électricité)
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Liquide/Gaz
Electricité
Electricité
Electricité
GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor
ENERGY in MTEP
• « standard » Progress
• Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv
• 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km
25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in
• 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km
16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in
Biofuel potential :
• 5 MTEP biogas
• 3 MTEP liquid (2G)

69. From Pathway to Ecosystem
« (how to) be more intelligent at large scale »

70. 70
Innovations are changing…
Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ?
New mobility behaviour at large scale
Massives solutions Techno & Socio
Identify, support and accelerate
1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion
FabMob version proto
FABMOB A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION

71. Empower Entrepreneurs, Cities, Labs, Schools with Open Source
for building sustainable Mobility
2
7
1
http://fabmob.io (NGO)

72. 72
BRINGING RESOURCES TO ENTREPRENEURS

74. Open Source is not anymore an option for Europe

75. 20
8Cities
7
930Persons
clusters
300+startups
320 20+commons
Companies Schools
& labs
communities
1+1
Wiki.fabmob.io
Chat.fabmob.io
1 2000Network
contacts
80 partners (09/2018) – France & Québec – Starting in Africa & Italy

76. Identification centralisée
(login – mot de passe unique)
- à finaliser -
Wiki pour documenter
Décrire, indexer les ressources
Relier personnes, compétences,
Projets, communs, communautés
Chat pour discuter
Sur tous les domaines
Par communautés d’intérêt
Site et Blog pour faire découvrir
Présenter la Fabrique
Et les adhérents
Forum pour débattre
Sur les principaux défis,
Sur les actions à engager
Pad pour rédiger ensemble
Lors des ateliers, des événements
Pour faciliter la documentation
Et l’engagement d’actions collectives
pour adhérer !!
Et organiser la billeterie
Des événements, AG et Ateliers

77. Create Open Assets useful for all stakeholders : data, soft and hardware
7
7

78. ?

79. User
Contributor
Asset
Community,
Ecosystem
License,
Business
Model
Market
Strategy
New Culture

80. AFRIQUE
Lancement du projet
DigitalTransport4Africa
QUEBEC
Lancement de la
FabMobQC
ITALIE
Echanges avec la Fondation
Italienne Développement
Durable
ALLEMAGNE
Echanges Open Source &
Shared Mobility

81. Market
Education
Research
Idea Prototype
MVP
Available
Improve
Hubs
Low cost
Bike Sharing
Connected
Box
Vehicle
Open
source
Personal
Tracker
Ridesharing
Certification
Ridesharing
DataBase
Bike
Vehicle
Vehicle (behavior)
Urbanism
Mobility (behavior)
Mobility
Individual
Acount
Digital
Transport 4
Africa

82. Can you take advantage to join a community ? Which one ?
What do you need in your project & that you should open source ?
What are the existing open resource useful for your project ?
How will you experiment ?
2
8
2
FabMob (NGO)

83. Research actions for Mobility 2.0
• Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic …
• Users science : how generate confidance ?
How to integrate new user behavior ?
• Understanding & Optimisation of complex
system,
• New method to understand new demand, to
design solutions with users and providers,
• Tool for capitalisation in order to
« industrialise » methodology (not the
solutions)
• Living labs, requested to test, design, validate

84. • Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a
chance for industry, citizen and environment,
• New Value Chains, new actor,
• Who will be multimodal mobility operator?
• New ecosystem, user will be center
• Data is the heart : to share
• New culture to develop : education, learning in
projects

86. http://fabmob.io
http://wiki.fabmob.io
http://gabrielplassat.fr