Frank tudor am_cham_presentation.compressed

The Energy Circus – Balancing Priorities & Juggling Competencies
Frank Tudor

1890 2100 2017 Time

Energy Revolution
TODAY
Universal energy for all
Phases
Distributed Energy Resources
Centralised Genera@on
Hub and Spoke

Unsubsidised clean energy world
records April 2016
Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Signed: March 2016 Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2019
Price: US$ 3.60 c/kWh
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
6 Michael Liebreich Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, 25 April 2017 @mliebreich
Country: Coahuila Mexico Country: Morocco Country: Denmark
Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall

records since April 2016
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Signed: May 2016 Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2018
Country: United Arab Emirates Country: Morocco Country: Denmark
Bidder: Masdar/DEWA Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall

Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Signed: August 2016 Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2019
Country: Chile Country: Morocco Country: Denmark
Bidder: Solarpack Corporation Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall

Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Signed: September 2016 Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2019
Country: Mexico Country: Morocco Country: Denmark
Bidder: X-Elio Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall

Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Construction:
Price:
Dec 2015
2019
US$ 5.3 c/kWh
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2019
Country: Mexico Country: Morocco Country: Denmark
Bidder: FRV Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: Vattenfall

Signed:
Construction:
Construction:
Price:
April 2017
2024
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Construction: 2019
Merchant Price: US$ 4.9 c/kWhPrice: US$ 2.69 c/kWh
Note: The offshore wind merchant price is estimated based on project LCOE in real 2016 terms Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
Country: Mexico Country: Morocco Country: Germany
Bidder: FRV Bidder: Enel Green Power Bidder: DONG/EnBW

Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Renewable energy excl. large hydro,
proportion of power generation, 2006-16
Lowest
Mid
Highest
No data
13%
30%
Spain
3%
12%
Australia
6%
18%
Brazil
5% 6%
Canada
6%
10%
China
9%
Germany
29%
2%
25%
UK
4% 6%
India
12%
25%
Italy
7%
12%
Japan
3% 9%
US
1% 3%
South
Africa

European power and utility asset impairments

1,500
Natural gas
1,000
Nuclear
500
Oil
0
2,000
2,500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Generation by source
TWh/yr
Source: EIA
Change in generation 2007-16
TWh/yr
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
800
600
Coal
-776TWh/yr
Power demand
-78TWh/yr
Gas
+483TWh/yr
Renewables
+256TWh/yr
US power sector fuel mix
Coal
Renewables

NEM genera@on mix (sent out)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Genera-on sent-out (TWh)
RooSop PV
Solar with storage
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Gas Steam
Gas CCGT & Cogen
Gas GT
Black Coal
Brown Coal
Business as usual

NEM genera@on mix (sent out)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Genera-on sent-out (TWh)
RooSop PV* Solar
with storage
Solar
Biomass
Wind
Hydro
Gas Steam
Gas CCGT
Gas OCGT
Black Coal
Brown Coal
CET (28%)

BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results
$1,000/kWh
$800/kWh
$642/kWh
$599/kWh
$540/kWh
$350/kWh
$273/kWh
2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Lithium-ion battery pack prices are
down 73% since 2010

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Lithium-ion battery pack prices will
drop another 75% by 2030
Lithium-ion battery price forecast

Small vans
Runabouts
Hatchbacks
Sedans
Sports cars
SUVs/Trucks
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, Images various.
Notes: Not exhaustive.
(*) Range is estimate
BEV model availability, 2008-20
Tesla Roadster
20082009
Mitsubishi i-MiEV
BMW mini e
Smith Edi son
2010Ford Transit
BlueOn M-B E-Cell
Hyundai
Ford Focus Nissan Leaf
Kia Ray
2011
Venturi Fetish Tesla Roadster
ChangAn EM80
Renault KangooM-B Vito
M-B B-Class BYD e6
JAC iEV4 Renault Fluence
Renault Twizy ForTwo
Smart
Fiat 500e
Renault Zoe ZE
Tesla Model S
Toyota
RAV4
Honda Fit
CODA EV
Peugeot Partner
Exagon Furtive
M-B SLS eDrive
BMW i3
Chevy Spark
Mahindra e2o
VW
e-Up Seat Mii*
VW e-Golf
Nissan NV200
Kandi Panda Bollore
Bluesummer
Mullen 700e
ChangAn
Eado
Chevy Bolt VW I.D.
Audi R8 E-tron
BYD T3
Mahindra eVerito
Qianto Q50
Aston Martin
RapidE
Tesla Model 3
Hyundai Ioniq
Land Rover
Defender
Honda Clarity
Porsche E-sport
2020VW e-Bulli
BAIC EU260
Geely Emgrand
Audi E-tron
Sportback
VW I.D. BUZZ
SAIC E-Lavida
Tata
IRIS
BYD e5
VW I.D. CROZZ
Volvo 40.2*
M-B EQ
Audi E-tron
Quattro
Jaguar
I-Pace
Mitsubishi eX
GLM G4 NIO EP9
Tesla
Model Y*
NIO ES8*
Tesla Roadster*
Renault DeZir
Trumpchi
GS4
Nissan Leaf 2*
Lucid Air
Faraday
FF91
NIO EVE
LeEco LeSEE
Tesla VW I.D.*
pickup*
BMW i5
Tesla
Model X
Chehejia
SUV*
VW
Budd-e
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350+ miles range per charge

22001166 22001177
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Car company market capitalisation
$ billion
8800
7700
Ford
6600
5500
GM
4400
Tesla
3300
2200
1100
FCM
00
22001111 22001122 22001133 22001144 22001155

Who will be right about the future volume
of electric vehicles?
2035
2040
2040
Year EV share of
global fleet
25%
13%
11%
6%
2040
25% of all cars sold
globally to be EVs
2025
2050 Phase out all fossil
fuel vehicles
Year EV share of
global fleet
18 April 24, 2017
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, OPEC, companies

US crude oil production versus oil
price
5
4
3
1
0
6
+1.5mbpd
8
9
mbpd
10
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
140
$/bbl
160 Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
May-14
Oct-14
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jan-16
Jun-16
Brent crude
US crude oil production
-$56/bbl
Source: Bloomberg
167June 27, 2017

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: we calculate the number of barrels displaced by multiplying the cumulative number of EVs on the road in a given year by
the average vehicle miles travelled by the EV, divided by the average miles per gallon of an internal combustion engine vehicle on the road, divided by 365, divided by 42,
which is the number of gallons in one barrel. Our figures likely understate actual crude oil displacement given that one barrel of crude oil produces around 19.5 gallons of
gasoline
Crude oil displacement from EV
sales, 2014–2040
0
2
4
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
8
Europe
6
10
12 Rest of
the world
Japan
USA
mbpd
14
and 12 gallons of diesel. Our calculation treats a barrel displaced as entirely made of finished transportation
fuel.
168June 27, 2017
China

Energy Revolution – global perspective
California
New York
Korea
Australia
•  Total commitment to climate change
•  LA will abide by Paris accord regardless of Admin
•  More renewable energy jobs than whole
of US coal industry

•  Regulatory driven integra@on of DER
•  DSP will be used to spawn crea@on of microgrids
•  Focus on crea@on of jobs/industry
•  Focused on revolu-on which they see driven by
renewable energy, storage, electric vehicles and
microgrids
•  Focus on crea-on of 500K jobs by 2030

Navigating the global electricity revolution

Australia will spend $1,000B on our electricity
systems to 2050

Distributed energy resources will dominate

What is a microgrid and why is it smart?
•  Clearly defined boundaries
•  Single controllable entity
•  Interconnected loads
•  Orchestrates Distributed
Energy Resources (DERs)
•  Integrated customers
•  Scalable
35

Smart City Grids Remote microgrids
The future of electricity is being reinvented in
Australia

In a service
territory
five times
the size of
California

Because Microgrids and Distributed
Energy are the DNA of future electricity
And will be key to delivering benefits for customers, the
community and the environment in the new energy economy

With some surprising similarities to
the city of New York

Advanced Microgrids & Distributed Energy
Resources are the DNA of future electricity

The solutions are the same – The New York story
41

The solutions are the same – The Onslow Story
•  The Onslow story
•  Home of Australia’s largest distributed energy resource (DER) microgrid.
•  50% of the town’s electricity needs to be serviced from renewable energy sources.
•  Includes a mix of distributed energy renewables, conventional gas powered generation and energy
storage.
•  Will reduce cost to supply Onslow
•  Will provide more flexibility for customers

•  Electricity systems supplied by millions of micro-
generation sources (not a handful large centralised
generators) need new control architectures
•  Microgrids can provide this architecture at a local level and
enable thousands of DERs to operate in harmony and
constantly balance supply and demand
•  Large traditional grids may be re-architected over time for
optimal efficiency as a federation of microgrids; usually
functioning together but sometime independently (to
minimise widespread outages).
Future electricity grids may be a ‘federation’ of
microgrids
DER microgrid

Customer Choice – efficient and predictable
Competitive landscape traditional and non-traditional
Organisational design/capability ambidextrous, innovative and predictable
Profitability and asset return require regulatory and pricing reform
The Energy Balancing Act

Business Models
Profit basis
Non traditional

Margin
Trusted Advisor Fee for service
Aggregator

Margin
Virtual Utilities

Margin
Platform
Services

ROA/Margin
Grid Developer

ROA
Merchant

Margin
Gentailer

Margin
Traditional

ROA
Generation Transmission Distribution Retail Customer
SUPPLY CHAIN
CUSTOMER
ASSETS
Customer
Customers/Assets
Assets
FOCUS

Horizon Power: ‘Microgrids are us’
Crea-ng Customer Choice by being
the world’s best microgrid
company

Conﬁden-al DraT—for discussion only 47Commercial in confidence – the following document contains commercially valuable and confidential information to Horizon Power
Horizon Power sees its Role as the Expert Integrator
Business model and technology innovationEnergy planning and policies
Capacity building and knowledge sharing Finance and risk management
System
Blueprints
DER
Microgrid
Architecture
Solar / Diesel
Hybrid
Systems
Digital
Consumer &
Prepayment
System
AMI / Smart
Grid
Intelligent
System
Control
Microgrid
Tariff Design
Asset Mgmt
Framework
Applied
Research
Intelligent
Consumer
Services
Horizon Power
Microgrid
Operating
Platform
Microgrid
Regulatory
Model
Economic
Development
Model
Export
Framework
ESO and
RCUW
programs
DER logistics
And supply
opportunities
Corporate
Governance
Community
Development
Model
Digital
Supply Chain
Risk
Management
Framework
Credit risk &
energy theft
system
Subsidy
Design
Framework
Financial &
Mgmt
Information
Systems
Accelerate time to
market for emerging
technologies
Realise policy goals and
quantify trade-offs
Create a toolkit of multi
vendor, multi
technologies
Validate business
models scale solutions

Trials consolidating our expertise

Onslow DER – show case for resolving complex
technical and social problems

Onslow - Technical Details
Will include:
•  A solar farm
•  More baaery storage
•  Behind the meter solar
•  Product oﬀerings:
⁻  Roof leasing
⁻  Community solar
⁻  Community baaery
⁻  Finance packages
⁻  Green energy trading
⁻  Alterna@ve Powerplans
•  Engaging with the community
DER microgrid

Onslow Microgrid Regulation
Based on performance improvement and delivery of lowest system cost

Light-handed regula@on
Performance improvement
model
Consumer and prosumer led4
Adequate public disclosure
Bankable

and… also very low cost

Heavily regulated
High performance standards
Significant public oversight
Tradi@onal U@lity model
Un-bankable5

high cost

Unregulated
Low performance guarantee
Limited transparency
Difficult to finance3

but… very low cost

Lower regula@on Higher regula@on

Onslow – Indicative Pricing Model

Offgrid lowering overall ‘ system cost’

Our Philosophy
We believe that everyone should WIN from the new energy economy
Individual
customers
The
Community
as a whole
Shared
system
we all
depend on

Energy Revolution – global perspective
California
New York
Korea
•  Total commitment to climate change
•  LA will abide by Paris accord regardless of Admin
•  More renewable energy jobs than whole
of US coal industry

•  Regulatory driven integra@on of DER/ DSP will
be used to spawn crea@on of microgrids
•  Focus on crea@on of jobs/industry
•  Focused on revolu-on which they see driven by
renewable energy, storage, electric vehicles and
microgrids
•  Focus on crea-on of 500K jobs by 2030

Australia

Australian Microgrid Opportunity

Australia’s own REVolution - MATILDA
M A T I L D A
•  Microgrid
•  Architechture
•  To Integrate
•  and Leverage
•  Distributed
•  Assets
WA / Australia- our own REV
•  Distributed Systems Provider
•  Based on exploita@on of microgrids
•  Holis@c approach to Energy Policy
•  Economic Development- jobs

SOURCE: Alan Finkel presenta@on to Australian Energy Week

Frank tudor am_cham_presentation.compressed

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