A FEW months ago, a major recovery from last year’s unusual succession of crop setbacks was no more than a promise based on larger sown acreages and hopes for ‘normalising’ weather in the world’s key grain-producing regions. That didn’t stop prices falling as markets put their bets on a return to looser supplies but, after a tough winter and a cold wet spring delayed winter crop development and spring sowings across much of the Northern hemisphere, some caution was still required.

1. Digital Re-print September | October 2013
Global Feed Markets: September - October 2013
Grain & Feed Milling Technology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.
All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,
the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis of
information published.
©Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form
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2. “ After a decade, we replaced our Tapco
Heavy-Duty buckets with the Xtreme-Duty
ones. If the new ones perform half as
well as the originals, who knows
how long they’ll last — maybe
20 years or more!
”
Jamie Mattson
Operations Manager
JAMES VALLEY GRAIN, LLC
Oakes, North Dakota, U.S.A.
Jon Hansen
Plant Operator
JAMES VALLEY
GRAIN, LLC.
Why 10 Years is Just a Drop in the Bucket When it
Comes to the Performance of Tapco Buckets
calculated that the original Tapco buckets handled 169,297,881
bushels – and most of those buckets were the originals.”
When James Valley Grain installed Tapco buckets in their new
facility in 2001, nobody expected them to last this long. A lot
of commodities of different density
variations – like wheat, corn and soybeans – have run through the original
7.05-million-bushel
terminal, which added
extra wear on the
STYLE CC-HD
(HEAVY DUTY)
buckets. Through the
®
years, the volume of
STYLE CC-XD
(XTREME DUTY) material has gone way up, too.
“Ten years is a long time for buckets to endure, especially
running as hard as we do,” Mattson says. “Honestly, when we
took them off, it was pretty incredible how well they wore. If the
new ones perform half as well as the originals, who knows how
long they’ll last – maybe 20 years or more!”
“We went from five million bushels the first year to around
30 million the last four years,” Jamie Mattson, Operations
Manager, James Valley Grain, says. “In fact, I just looked it up and
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*Grain Journal, Country Journal Publishing Co., Inc., Decatur, Illinois, U.S.A.
The color blue, when used in connection with elevator buckets, is a U.S. registered trademark owned by Tapco Inc. © 2013 Tapco Inc.® All rights reserved.

3. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Recovering ‘Black
Sea’ (former Soviet
country) crops may
now live up to, even
exceed, their early
promise in terms
of tonnages but
there may be some
quality issues after
wet harvests for
the latter stages of
Russia, Ukrainian
and Kazakh
harvests. The latersown spring wheat
and corn crops will
Big supply drives grain costs to
3-year low
A
FEW months ago, a major recovery
from last year’s unusual succession
of crop setbacks was no more than a
promise based on larger sown acreages
and hopes for ‘normalising’ weather in the world’s
key grain-producing regions. That didn’t stop
prices falling as markets put their bets on a return
to looser supplies but, after a tough winter and a
cold wet spring delayed winter crop development
and spring sowings across much of the Northern
hemisphere, some caution was still required.
Now crops have mostly caught up, seen off some
drought and heatwave scares in the US and the
former Soviet Union and, over the last few weeks
before this issue went to press, harvest yields have
been confirming what the optimists had only dared
hope: Output of all the major grains is not only up
but significantly exceeds even the top forecasts.
The recovery is led by world maize production,
now expected to rise by a remarkable 11% while
wheat and barley crops are seen up by around
8% each. Even sorgum outpout is up by almost
10% . As a result, coarse/feed grain supply will
comfortably overtake demand, allowing a needed
replenishment of the stocks that were depleted by
last season’s production shortfalls. In fact, maize
stocks at the close of the coming season will be at
their highest for 12-years in global terms, largely
due to a recovery in the US (where most of the
drop occurred last year and where they will reach
an eight-year peak). That’s clearly bearish long-term
for maize costs.
Wheat stocks are also expected to improve
as production rebounds and the consumption
response to plentiful supplies and lower prices
is kept in check by the return of much fiercer
competition in the feed sector from cheap and
abundant maize and barley (about 20% of global
wheat use is in animal feeds and well over 40% of
consumption within the European Union).
The biggest price response to supply recovery so
far has been in the maize market – hardly surprising
as production of this grain is now estimated to
increase by almost 100m tonnes. Remember that
the global maize crop decline which last season
propelled maize costs to their highest level ever,
was only in the order of 24m tonnes!
This season, not only has the US maize crop
bounced back by almost 80m tonnes to a new
record of over 350m tonnes but crops in the
up-and-coming exporters are also soaring to their
highest ever levels – Brazil’s +8m at 81m tonnes
be most at risk.
46 | September - october 2013
&feed millinG technoloGy
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5. FEATURE
COMMODITIES
Therefore, it is
important to optimise
the scheduling/production planning to ensure
the flush process is only
Hand additions and premix
used where there is no
addition
The losses that can occur at this stage are alternative. This can be
significant because of the impact of putting achieved most effectivethe wrong additive into the wrong feed type, ly through PLC control
which can prevent cross
or the impact of under or over dosing.
The most effective method to reduce contamination schedulthe risk of errors is to automate the process ing and programme the
using either barcoding or weigh stations or a flush batch automatically
combination of both. This has the advantage before a sensitive feed
of providing complete traceability which can type.
The pelleting lines may also require flush- vitamins as well as the risk of over-gelatinialso limit losses if an error does occur.
ing and this again will impact significantly on sation of starch leading to poorer nutritional
performance.
production cost.
Flush batching
A more efficient flush procedure is to be
Some feed mills run the same feed
In many feed mills there is a requirement
(possibly more), Ukraine’s +8-10m at 29/30m
to flush or purge the mixer and pelleting material used for the mixer flush through able to use the flush batch as final feed. This
tonnes alongside some notable gains too in
lines to avoid carryover of specific materials to bulk or packing silos. This is certainly can be done by either removing the coccidiexportable output from Russia, Argentina and
or feed additives, coccidiostats and medi- wasteful because of the time involved and ostat or medicine in the final batch but addSerbia. Even the EU expects a crop increase
the manpower required to pack or transport ing this to the existing feed on the basis that
cines.
of around 5-6m tonnes.
The method of how the mixer and pellet the rework back to the raw material silos when mixed with the original batches it will
Most of these rival corn suppliers have
only represent a minor dilution. Once again
lines are flushed will impact how much loss or intake.
already been undercutting US export prices
Some feed companies use a specified the PLC pelleting control can control the
is associated with this process. Mixer flushby a substantial margin in past months,
ing is usually done using a defined quantity quantity of the first batch of feed, following routing of different feed types to each pellet
enabling them to win the lion’s share of
of raw material such as corn, which is then the coccidiostat or medicine, and run this line and ensure a flush is created before the
any ‘non-routine’ tenders as well as a large in the US itself next spring. If that happened the 7m tonnes forecast by the USDA although
re-routed back to a nominated silo for through the line and recirculate as rework. next sensitive feed type.
chunk of the USA’s most loyal custom from it might reduce some of the pressure from their estimates might be subject to some
inclusion into specified feed types. Each flush Once again this is wasteful not only for the
countries like South Korea and Taiwan. Most large supplies longer term but there are no wishful thinking and biased toward keeping
batch represents cost in terms of mixer time, reasons already listed, but because each Pelleting crumbling and
of these exporters are also doing their best guarantees of that. We only have to look at their import costs of maize down.
energy consumption and potential losses time you reprocess feed there will be some conditioning
to capitalise on the windfall demand for maize how South American and East European/FSU
Demand generally is usually more
deterioration in some of the heat sensitive
associated with the re-circulation system.
Of all the process points in the feed mill,
from China which we mentioned in our last maize crops
issue.
and expor ts
Exports aren’t the biggest factor for the h a v e b e e n
USA, accounting for about 10-12% of its total consistently
INTERNATIONAL MILLING AND
maize demand, the rest going to domestic under-rated in
CEREAL INDUSTRIES MEETING
feed, food, ethanol and other industrial outlets. recent years to
Combined demand from these US domestic appreciate the
th
sectors fell by about 10% during the past possibility that
international
season of tight and expensive corn supplies maize supplies
but the US Department of Agriculture reckons may continue
www.jtic.eu
that all of that lost demand will be made up on a larger
2.0 mm floating fish feed
in 2013/14 (which started Serptember 1). It than normal
seems a fair assumption. However, USDA’s scale next year
ES
ENC
accompanying prediction that exports will too.
NFER
MULTILINGUAL CO
China
jump back by 67% in this competitive global
environment inspires far less confidence.
r e mains a n
Reflecting these loosening supply/demand important
fundamentals, the bellwether Chicago maize f a c t o r f o r
futures market, which was still trading over maize demand
food growing
$7/bu in July (about $280/tonne) has recentlydogas its 14mm
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is the cheapest it’s been for about boosts
Inventory management systems
environment
for a low cost
and bin level indicators
three years. The USDA meanwhile predicts impor ts. Yet
feeds of high quality, equal to that of higher cost extrusion systems.
• Regulatory changes in • Sensitivity to gluten: contemporary
a US seasonal ex-farm price during 2013/14 h e r e t o o ,
Reims - France
road transport
myth and medical truth
• Ease of operation
• Ability to make pellets of different shapes
of between $4.40 and $5.20, median point domestic
• Low cost of production
and a variety of sizes, down to 2mm
$4.80, which is about 30% below the average maize output
• Thru capacities up to 1.5 TPH
price achieved last season and about 22% is continuing
Don’t paythan in than you have to, to get the qualityx c e e d
to e
cheaper more 2011/12.
TORS
& quantity you need.
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Forward maize futures are currently about western
Contact us athigher than current delivery on the analysts’ to
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• Enlarge your network.
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assumption that recovering US demand and estimates.
• Find n partners.
Rotary
Pressure Switch
Vibrating Rod ew Capacitance Probe
a possible switch in sowings away from this The Chinese
• Increase your knowledge.
grain and towards soyabeans (which are now authorities
• The place to be !
far more attractively priced for the farmer) also see their
will occur in Latin America this autumn and imports below
tiple batch-weigh scales and digital PLC
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&&
Grain feed millinG technoloGy
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© 2013 BinMaster, Lincoln, Nebraska uSa
) : +33 (0)1 47 07 20 69 / 6 : +33 (0)1 44 24 56 25 / aemic@wanadoo.fr / www.aemic.com
September - october 2013 | 11
September - october 2013 | 47

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7. predictable than supply and therefore less
likely to drive up maize costs. The more
potent factor (far more important even than
farmers’ cropping plans) is the weather and its
ability to affect sowing, crop development and
yields. If, for example, the Latin Americans had
one of their periodic droughts in last quarter
2013 or first quarter 2014 – or the US had a
wet planting season and/or a summer 2014
drought/heatwave, maize supplies could be
much tighter and costs could be looking very
different in six months/one year’s time. But
in the meantime, consumers, especially in the
feed and industrial sectors look set to enjoy a
fairly lengthy period of low costs.
Given that record maize prices helped lift
wheat values to unusually high levels last year,
questions are now being asked whether wheat
has fully discarded the ‘borrowed’ portion of
the past year’s larger than usual premium over
the feed grain.
Although US (Chicago soft red winter)
wheat futures are about a third cheaper than
the peaks reached this time last year, they
have not broken significant new ground the
two months since our last review and are still
almost 10% dearer than their mid-2011 peak
– so the premium has actually widened out.
However, US hard spring wheats for export,
while not much cheaper than in Jul/Aug, have
48 | September - october 2013
edged down under ample supply outlooks and
by enough to set three-year lows (see chart).
European milling wheat prices also set threeyear lows in August, from which they have
recovered only partially, then slumped again.
The main factors here have been the weak US
grain markets, strong export competition and
higher than expected domestic wheat output.
The latest series of increments to most EU
wheat harvest estimates from the Commission,
private analysts and official/national bodies
now suggests the Union has produced about
7.5% more wheat this year than last – quite
an achievement after all the weather scares.
French, even UK, quality has turned out far
better than expected earlier in the summer
when late crops had too much rain and not
enough sunshine which willk be good news
to domestic millers.
EU soft wheat exports are tending to
prevent prices falling further at this stage,
having started the season with a bang and
currently running at almost twice the rate of
this time last year. The USDA expects the
full season’s EU exports to rise by a mere
3.6% from last season’s 22.2m and from just
16.7m the year before. However, reaching that
figure, let alone maintaining the recent stellar
pace, may require some competitive – i.e.
lower – pricing amid the strong competition
from other exporting countries, especially the
FSU trio - Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
These three are currently expected to raise
exports from 25.5m to 36m and in recent
weeks have continued to undercut EU wheat
prices in some of the key import markets –
especially Egypt.
The FSU countries might have even more
than that to sell abroad. While latest USDA
forecasts have raised their combined wheat
production to 93m tonnes – almost 30m
more than last year - some trade analysts
believe their final crop total could be as much
as 5-8m tonnes higher still.
However, while Russia is likely to remain
the largest exporter in this group, it may be
handicapped somewhat by quality issues
following rain during the later (40%) stages of
the harvest. This is expected to result in much
less wheat than from last year’s crop (maybe
5m less) grading No 3 milling. In combination
with plans to replenish depleted intervention
stocks, this might limit exports at a lower level
than markets expect as well as putting a floor
under Russian prices, some traders suggest.
Good news for millers who import North
American hard wheats to beef up the quality
of their grists is the much larger than expected
Canadian wheat crop, recently estimated at
a massive 31.5m tonnes against last year’s
27.2m and the recent annual average between
23m and 25m tonnes. The lion’s share of
this is higher grade spring wheat. Canada has
reportedly already begun to compete with
the US for recent windfall orders from the
world’s second largest importer, Brazil and is
expected to be an aggressive seller into the
autumn/early winter months.
After some bouts of dry weather, estimates
of Australia’s traditionally higher quality crop
have recently been trimmed by some analysts
to around 24.5m tonnes. However, this too
would still be one of its bigger harvests and
about 2.5m over last year’s – and some
welcome rains seem to be on the way here
too as we go to press.
Like the US and the EU, Australia has been
selling wheat to China, this year’s biggest
import growth market (from 3m to a forecast
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain

8. FEATURE
COMMODITIES
Therefore, it is
important to optimise
the scheduling/production planning to ensure
the flush process is only
used odd man out is no recent descent in
The where there in the
alternative. This can be costs has been soya
milling and feed ingredient
achieved has effectivemeal whichmostactually trended up, dragging
ly through oilmeal/protein
the rest of thePLC control complex with it.
whichmain prevent cross uncertainty over
The can factor has been
contamination forthcoming US soyabean
the size of rthe scheduling A programme the
crop. andfew months ago this was expected
flush batch automatically
to rebound from last year’s rather dismal 82m
before sensitive 93m.
tonnes toaas much as feed However, a lot of
type.
planned acreage was delayed by wet weather
The unsown while in contrast to last
and wentpelleting lines may also require flushing and this again will impact from an even
year, when crops were rescued significantly on
production cost.
worse fate by timely finishing rains, this year
Some extended run the same feed
has seen anfeed mills drought spoil good
material used for the mixer toward crop
interim development, right up flush through
to bulk or packing silos. This is certainly
maturity. Because the crop was planted and is
wasteful because has barely begun in midrunning late, harvestof the time involved and
the manpower required to pack or transport
September, leaving yields largely to guesswork.
the rework back to the estimate already
The USDA has cut its crop raw material silos
or intake.
to 85m only to pushed it back to 88m in
Some Now the Department’s Farm
September.feed companies use a specified
quantity of the first batch of feed, following
Service Agency has stirred the pot again with a
the coccidiostat or medicine, and run this
forecast of higher unplanted and unharvested
through the the same time, the rework.
acres while, atline and recirculate astrade is
Once again this is wasteful yields. Traders
reporting better tha expectednot only for the
reasons already listed, but – a crop no
will make what they will of thatbecause each
time than last year’s 82m or closer to the
better you reprocess feed there will be some
deterioration in some lower heat would
last USDA estimate? Theof the figuresensitive
tiple batch-weigh scales and digital PLC
controls should provide an accuracy of 0.5
percent or less.
Oilmeals
9.5m tonnes from all suppliers). Even in a
Hand shrinking export premix
season of additions and supply from the
addition
former big supplier Argentina, it all adds up to
The losses that can occur at the leading
a highly competitive market amongthis stage are
significant because 2013/14.impact of putting
exporting nations in of the
the wrongthat, world the wrongtradetype,
Against additive into wheat feed is
or the impact of under or over from 147m
expected to expand quite sharply dosing.
The most effective method to time
to over 152m tonnes (only the second reduce
the risk 150m) largely on the back process
ever over of errors is to automate the of the
using either barcoding or The figure could
boom in Chinese demand. weigh stations or a
combination of both. This has the advantage
even reach a new record level, several million
of providing complete traceability which can
tonnes higher than this after Iran’s president
also limit need if an error does occur.
signalling a losses for 7m tonnes of imports
compared with the 4.5m used in the USDA
Flush
forecast. batching
As In rough feed mills forwardapricing, the
a many guide to there is requirement
to flush or purge the only a smallpelleting
futures markets show mixer and 2-3%
lines to avoid distant months, EU milling
premium on thecarryover of specific materials
or feed additives, coccidiostats and mediwheat futures hardly any premium at all
cines.
for the mid-2014 positions. The USDA’s
The for seasonal average prices on
forecast method of how the mixer and pellet
lines market is will impact in a much loss
the USare flushed meanwhile how range of
is associated median process. Mixer flush$6.50/7.50, thewith this point equivalent to
ing is usually done using a defined quantity
around $257/tonne versus the past season’s
of average and 2011/12’s $266/tonne.
$285raw material such as corn, which is then
re-routed back to a nominated silo for
The cheapest ‘Black Sea’ milling wheat is
inclusion selling currently for $247/250
meanwhileinto specified feed types. Each flush
batch represents cost in terms of hold up
per tonne. Can even these pricesmixer time,
energy consumption and potential losses
if maize stays $2/bu ($75/tonne) and more
associated with the re-circulation system.
cheaper? Time will tell.
IN PRINT
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January
ue : &
is iss storage
• hand
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•
African es
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feed millin
Animal the most
of
in
is one activities
buoyant related field
the agri
•
•
•
A glanc
decade
•
ions open
in line
Get analysis solut improved
for
Process rtunities
new oppo quality
and
prof it
safety
Food grain
in the
milling ry
indust ervatives recurring
• Pres vatives are a sions
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in
• RecPreserespublic discus
topic in
advancgrain
rapid
testing
capacity
Digital ve
microwa
moisture ment
Insects
measure
• Controlling
&
with heat
al grain
• Glob markets
feed
publish
Optical should be for inclusion
ies - first
industr
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age and us optio t cleaning
1
feed milling
GFMT12.02.indd
flour &
as a serio ern whea
the global
mod
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in any
magaz
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A subscr
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.indd
GFMT12.01
& feed
In this issue:
•
Improving
supply from
farm to fork
•
Victam Asia
Product
Showcase
•
Global
grain & feed
markets
1891
- first published in
& feed milling industries
for the global flour
A subscription magazine
ed in 1891
17/04/2012
ting
l sor come of
Optica ng has considered
sorti
1
tries
g indus
- first
shed
publi
Die and roll re-working machines
WE’RE ON OUR WAY TO YOU!
Assessing
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In this
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oxins
Mycot view
an over
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Databal diet
anima tion
ula
form Efficiency in flour milling
ques:
• Energ last
technie to y saving
•
•
smartBob and eBob software
2012
ry
- Februa
•
mber
- Dece
without climbing!
2012
March - April
mber
Nove
02/02/2012
13:05
10:12
in 1891
11
30/11/20
17:28
millin
See all of our magazines
online. You will also find a
dog food 14mm
full archive of back issues,
as well as downloadable
Insta-Pro’s new medium shear extruder answers the market’s demand
features
for a low cost extrusion solution that effectively produces pet and fish
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zine
n maga
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al flour
to large crops in Canada, the CIS countries
Pelleting crumbling and
and Western Europe. With good crops of
conditioning
cottonseed, palm kernels, groundnuts and
Of all puts world points in the on track
copra, this the processoilseed output feed mill,
BIN LEVELS
TOUR2013
OUR OUTPUT COMES
IN ALL SHAPES AND
SIZES
A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
2.0 mm floating fish feed
suggest another very tight season for the US
with riskily low finishing stocks in the pipeline
for the second year running. Even the higher
crop figure would not spell abundance.
However, there are mitigating factors.
Chief amongst these is the Latin American
crop harvested last spring which the USDA
has increased to almost 141m tonnes – 31m
more than last year. That not only raises world
soyabean supply to a new record 267.5m
tonnes but results in world stocks growing
from 55m to 61.5m. As soyabean prices
vitamins as well as the risk of over-gelatiniremain high compared with maize, their main
sation of starch leading Americas, the Latin
competitor for land in theto poorer nutritional
performance.
producers are expected to up their acreage
A more autumn (planting starts is to be
yet again thisefficient flush procedure around
able to use theon current pointers, USDA
October) and flush batch as final feed. This
can be done by either removing the coccidisees their output rising again to about 150.5m
ostat or medicine in the final batch but addtonnes. This all pre-supposes good weather
ing this to the existing feed Brazil basis that
and it is a bit hot and dry in on theespecially
when mixed with the original goes to plan,
at the moment. However, if all batches it will
only soya stocks will loosen further in the
world represent a minor dilution. Once again
the PLC closes at the end of August 2014.
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&feed millinG technoloGy
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September - october 2013 | 11
September - october 2013 | 49
Grain
Grain
AD_o&j.indd 1
21/11/2012 15:08

10. for a new record 495m tonnes. Amid looser
supplies and cheaper prices, world oilmeal
consumption is expected to grow by 3.3%
compared with less than 1% over the past
season. By far the largest component in oilmeal
growth will remain China (30% of the total
increase) but healthy gains are also seen in
demand within the USA, Europe, the Latin
American soya producing countries, India,
Mexico, Japan and other moderate sized
consumers. Soya meal, which forward markets
suggest will be about 5-6% cheaper this time
next year, will again take most of the growth
in global oil meal demand.
• Recovering ‘Black Sea’ (former Soviet
country) crops may now live up to, even
exceed, their early promise in terms of
tonnages but there may be some quality
issues after wet harvests for the latter stages
European, North American and Australian
wheat exporters and an anchor on both
milling and feed grain values in Europe and
around the world. Continue to watch for
possible government intervention in Russia
to support prices and rebuild depleted
reserve stocks but we expect this to be
on a smaller scale than earlier thought and
the effect temporary.
• Despite the Black Sea competition, the EU
wheat export campaign is off to a roaring
start, well ahead of the pace needed to
meet the near record 23m tonnes forecast
by the USDA. While this year’s EU crop was
a big one (+8m tonnes), keeping up this
export pace would lower stocks and could
support prices at a higher level – although
this situation could be corrected by another
season of large impoirts of cheap maize from
Ukraine and other non-EU countries and by
EU wheat prices become less competitive
when/if prices did rise. (the past season’s
EU maize imports hit a modern record of
11.3m tonnes and at least 7.5m is expected
to come in this season).
of Russia, Ukrainian and Kazakh harvests.
The later-sown spring wheat and corn
crops will be most at risk. At this stage,
however, these countries continue to set the
bar low for export prices – a challenge to
• Canadian, Australian and Argentine crops
are all expected to rise this season – by a
combined 10m tonnes. Along with the US
and Europe, these producers will be able to
keep importing countries well supplied with
KEY FACTORS AHEAD –
WHEAT
50 | September - october 2013
quality milling wheat supplies, keeping
costs in this sector under control.
• A good Monsoon is boosting India’s
crop which may turn out larger than
expected. It has huge stocks, much
of them inadequately stored and
better sold into export markets at
a low price/loss than spoiling. The
government plans to free more
expor ts which could help lower
feedwheat prices internationally.
• The surge in Chinese wheat
imports seems to have peaked for
now but second largest importer
Brazil has been buying heavily due
to a frost damaged domestic crop while
the top importer Egypt has returned as a
big buyer of months of absence during its
political/financial crises. Iran has signaled
much larger import needs and the Mideast
region generally will probably want to keep
wheat and other food stocks high in these
uncertain times, especially given that current
wheat import prices are so much lower than
they were this time last year.
• A record world maize crop will keep wheat
use in feeds below the peak level of two
years ago. But food, bio-fuel and other
outlets will still add about 3.8% or 26m
tonnes to world total wheat consumption
in 2013/14. That means only modest stock
growth but the global wheat inventory will
still be large in relation to consumption
needs.
COARSE GRAINS
•
How much does the USDA need
to trim off its US final acreage figure and will
the excellent, better than expected yields seen
from the early harvest hold up as the combines
roll into the drier parts of the Midwest and
Northern Plains? Clearly there is potential
for the maize crop number to go either way
(probably down a bit). Either way, the trade
consensus remains fairly confident that the US
will build carryover stocks to very comfortable
levels by the end of 2013/14.
• Strong export competition from Ukrainian,
second crop Brazilian and other maize
suppliers will continue to undercut US prices
and limit the traditional top exporter’s world
market comeback – bearish for prices.
• Europe’s own maize crop rebound should
cut its import needs. Prices here should
be kept in check by bigger supplies and by
cheap and abundant maize imports from
Ukraine
• Cheaper prices are expected to win back
the 10% of US corn consumption that was
lost to last year’s record costs in feed and
ethanol sectors – or is that a little optimistic?
Some US traders have their doubts.
• Will China spring more surprises with its
maize import programme – or have we seen
the bulk of this now? World corn supplies
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain

11. COMMODITIES
can certainly accommodate this without a
strong price reaction.
• Funds and other speculator s have
recently had fewer reasons to invest in
maize and other crop markets – indeed
commodities per se – as opposed to
rising stock markets. Their absence will
be welcomed by consumers.
• Will
South
American maize
producers really
sow smaller
crops for harvest
nex t spring as
prices drop on
world markets?
It wouyld not
surprise us if the
region’s potential
is being underrated yet again. .
• The biggest barley
crop in four years
adds to the mix
of abundant feed
grain supply –
up by over 6%
in Europe. With
maize, this will
add to downward
pressure on
feedgrain prices.
So will a larger
sorghum crop,
already helping to
fill some of China’s
feed impor t
needs.
side of the soya/oilmeal equation. Will it
continue to buy such large amounts of US
soyabeans as it has in the early weeks of the
new season? Or will it try to delay purchases
when possible to switch to cheaper Latin
American suppliers? Although some
analysts say China’s demand has been overrated, it continues to buy mega tonnages.
• Big EU and CIS rapeseed &
sunf lower seed and Canadian canola
crops are helping to boost consumers’
global oilmeal choices beyond ‘k ing
soya.’
• If the South Americans continue to expand
sowings and get the right weather, soya costs
may have further to fall.
ONE SHOW
OILMEALS/
PROTEINS
• Just where will
the US soyabean
crop end up –
82m, 88m tonnes?
Even the low
figure does not
necessarily spell a
bull market amid
the abundance of
South American
supply.
• However,
traders will want
to s e e p r oof
of this situation
continuing – i.e.
the next lat-Am
crops up and
running.
• China will remain
t o p i nf l u e n ce
on the demand
&feed millinG technoloGy
Grain
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September - october 2013 | 51

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