SlideShare une entreprise Scribd logo
1  sur  13
Please add your 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial 
Plants: A Case Study from the Emilia 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Marcello Forte, Davide Spanò, Fabio Petruzzelli, 
AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
logo here
Motivation of the study 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
• Recent seismic events affecting industrialized countries (Japan, 2011; Emilia, 2012) readily showed the 
importance of having an efficient, transparent and proactive management of the seismic risk. 
• Traditional seismic risk assessment heavily rely on qualitative risk estimates, based on macroseismic 
intensity and/or expert judgment. However, an essential step of an aware risk management and decision 
making process is a sound quantitative risk assessment. This requires specific, rapid and user-friendly 
tools, able to capture the peculiarities of the structure under investigation and the differences 
between available models for modelling risk. 
• Development of instruments for a rapid and user-friendly 
probabilistic seismic risk assessment: 
“FRAME@Risk” – Fragility-based rapid seismic Risk 
Assessment Method” v.1.0 software 
• Test the procedures on real cases
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
Under human control 
Exposure 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
From a qualitative to a quantitative (probabilistic) 
seismic risk assessment 
Quantitative approaches to seismic risk encompass individual quantification of the three component of seismic risk, 
namely the seismic hazard (seismicity of the site); the vulnerability (building structural response); and the exposure 
(building occupancy and contents). 
Risk = H x V x E 
Hazard 
Vulnerability
Seismic risk is defined as the the probability or likelihood of exceeding a pre-defined level of loss due to earthquakes to a 
given element at risk, over a specified period of time. 
Failure Probability 
Fragility Curves 
(probability of exceeding some damage state) 
Structural Engineering 
Consequence function 
(or damage-to-loss function) 
stakeholders 
Moderate 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
Hazard Curve 
Seismologists 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
Expected loss 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Seismic Risk Assessment 
Exceedance probability 
Intensity Measure (IM) 
Hazard 
Exceedance probability 
Intensity Measure (IM) 
Fragility 
Expected Loss given a 
damage state (“failure”) 
Exposure 
퐸 퐿 = 퐸 퐿|푓 ∙ 푃푓 
퐸 퐿|푓 
Slight 
Collapse 
Hazard 
Curve 
Fragility 
Curve Pf = failure probability 
(proportional to the 
overlapping area)
Comparison&conversion tool Loss module 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
The FRAME@Risk software 
the ensemble of FRAME@Risk 
modules: 
(i) allows performing a rapid, 
user-friendly and worldwide 
applicable evaluation of 
structure-specific seismic 
losses; 
(ii) provides an inventory of 
existing fragility functions 
that can be managed and 
expanded (to date, about 
600 fragility functions); 
(iii) allows the comparison and 
homogenization of fragility 
curves; 
(iv) provides instruments for the 
identification of the most 
suitable fragility curves, 
among those available, to 
describe the seismic 
performance of a structure. 
The FRAME@Risk software tool 
FRAME main module 
Manager tool 
MAIN FUNCTIONS: 
• define a new fragility curve; 
according to taxonomy; 
• collapse and expand taxonomy; 
• open/modify existing curves. 
MAIN FUNCTIONS: 
• compare fragility curves; 
• convert IMs; 
•manipulate limit states; 
• compute statistics. 
MAIN FUNCTIONS: 
• choose damage-to-loss 
functions; 
• compute losses due to PD 
and BI. 
Fragility filter tool 
MAIN FUNCTION: 
• filter fragilities according to 
the selected taxonomy. 
• Allows the input of the data 
required for the assessment: 
− site-specific hazard, 
− fragility curves suitable for 
the case under 
consideration, 
− damage-to-loss function) 
• Provides the output: 
− failure probabilities 
− expected losses
• The affected area is characterized by an high cultural and historical heritage and it is one of the most densely 
industrialized Italian centers (the 2% of the Italian GDP is produced by activities in the stricken area) 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
The Emilia 2012 earthquake sequence 
• M 5.9 earthquake on 20th May 2012 - 4:03 am UTC. Epicenter: close to Finale Emilia; depth: 6.3 Km. 
• M 5.8 earthquake on 29th May - 9:00 am UTC. Epicenter: Medolla (18 km S-W far from the 1st event); depth: 10 Km. 
The seismic sequence covered a large area extending in the E-W 
direction for a length of nearly 40 km, between the localities of 
Mirandola and Ferrara [INGV, 2012] 
• Consequences: 
− 27 casualties 
− about 400 injured and 15,000 homeless 
− 13.2 billion Euros of property damage and BI (Italian 
Department for Civil Protection); 
− 1.3 billion Euros of Insured Losses 
(10% of Total Losses; in L’Aquila 2009 about the 2%) 
• Causes: 
− enforcement of seismic provisions in the affected 
area only in 2009 (2003 for strategic buildings). 
− Soft alluvial subsoil in the area caused significant 
ground shaking amplification and, in some cases, 
soil liquefaction.
11 7 8 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
Building characteristics 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
4 5 
6 
9 
10 12 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
The Case Study Plant 
1 
2 
3 
• fragility functions specifically 
computed for Italian precast 
buildings with different details in 
terms of joint, reinforcement, 
structural regularities, and 
cladding characteristics. 
• The consequence function was 
chosen on the basis of the 
content vulnerability class 
• Plant dedicated to the production of medical devices; 
• Total property value = about 100 million Euros (buildings = 27 mln; machineries=47 mil; stock=28 mln); 
• 12 buildings, built from 1966 to 2011; 
• Maximum horizontal acceleration (PGA) registered at the site = 0.3 g [INGV, 2012] 
• After the earthquakes the plant suffered about 5.5 million euros o PD and about 2 months of downtime 
• AXA MATRIX knowledge forms for industrial buildings 
• Design documents 
o geometrical characteristics (e.g. number of floors, height, 
plan and elevation dimensions) 
o mechanical characteristics (e.g. material, load resisting 
system, detailing, irregularities, etc.) 
o detailed description of the observed damage 
Building characteristics 
Building and content/equipment vulnerability 
(from FRAME@Risk inventory) 
Building exposed value 
[% of the total plant value] 
name material 
design 
year 
fragility curve 
vulnera-bility 
class 
Building 
Machineries 
&Equipment 
Stock 
Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% 
Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% 
Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% 
Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% 
Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% 
Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% 
Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% 
Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% 
Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% 
Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% 
Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% 
Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 
1972- 
1981 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5% 
Building and content/equipment vulnerability 
(from FRAME@Risk inventory) 
Building exposed value 
[% of the total plant value] 
fragility curve 
vulnera-bility 
class 
Building 
Machineries 
&Equipment 
Stock 
AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% 
AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5% 
Building and content/equipment vulnerability 
(from FRAME@Risk inventory) 
Building exposed value 
[% of the total plant value] 
name material 
design 
year 
fragility curve 
vulnera-bility 
class 
Building 
Machineries 
&Equipment 
Stock 
Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% 
Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% 
Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% 
Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% 
Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% 
Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% 
Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% 
Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% 
Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% 
Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% 
Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% 
Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 
1972- 
1981 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
Results of the analysis (1/3) 
Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one 
Large part of the production took place in Bld. 2 and Bld.6, that were also those which suffered the major structural 
damages 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Building characteristics 
Building and content/equipment vulnerability 
(from FRAME@Risk inventory) 
Building exposed value 
[% of the total plant value] 
name material 
design 
year 
fragility curve 
vulnera-bility 
class 
Building 
Machineries 
&Equipment 
Stock 
Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% 
Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% 
Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% 
Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% 
Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% 
Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% 
Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% 
Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% 
Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% 
Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% 
Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% 
Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 
1972- 
1981 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
Results of the analysis (1/3) 
Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one 
Building 9 was subject to slight damage and minor to moderate loss of content 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Building characteristics 
Building and content/equipment vulnerability 
(from FRAME@Risk inventory) 
Building exposed value 
[% of the total plant value] 
name material 
design 
year 
fragility curve 
vulnera-bility 
class 
Building 
Machineries 
&Equipment 
Stock 
Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% 
Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% 
Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% 
Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% 
Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% 
Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% 
Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% 
Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% 
Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% 
Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% 
Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% 
Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 
1972- 
1981 
BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
20% 
18% 
16% 
14% 
12% 
10% 
8% 
6% 
4% 
2% 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Results of the analysis (2/3) 
Distribution of estimated losses inside the plant (normalized with respect to the total value of the component at risk) 
0% 
Building loss / total value [%] 
Building 
Machineries & Equipment 
Stock 
The large part of the stock is located in Bld.9 and Bld. 5, the good 
structural characteristics of which limit the extent of the loss 
Bld.2 and Bld.6 are those for which the largest 
damage to building is observed
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
100% 
90% 
80% 
70% 
60% 
50% 
40% 
30% 
20% 
10% 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Results of the analysis (3/3) 
Comparison of estimated losses with the adjusted ones 
• The comparison between FRAME@Risk estimates and the real losses is performed in terms of adjusted losses, rather 
than claims. The comparison is done for building component only. 
0% 
Building loss / building value [%] 
Expected Loss (FRAME@Risk estimate) 
Adjusted Loss (after claim) Although a comparison of the expected losses obtained through a probabilistic approach with the losses deriving from 
a single real event is hardly feasible, as a general result the total loss associated to the buildings is: 
Adjusted = 5.5 million Euros 20% of the total building value 
Estimated (FRAME@Risk) = 6.5 million Euros 24% of the total building value 
- good coherency between estimated and adjusted losses was obtained, 
- Losses are overestimated when structures experienced minor to null damage (e.g., Bld. 9) 
- Conversely, in case of collapse (e.g. Bld.10 and Bld.2)
• Good coherency between the expected losses estimated by the procedure and the real losses was observed, with 
a tendency in overestimating the observed loss for a given scenario earthquake was observed, that is almost 
intrinsic in a probabilistic approach and more pronounced for structures that have experienced minor damages. 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Conclusions 
• A case study from the Emilia Earthquake 2012 has been presented, with the aim of comparing the direct loss 
estimations performed throughout the FRAME@Risk software against the loss adjusted after the claim process 
• The application of the FRAME@Risk software tool showed the capability of the software in guiding the association 
of a specific fragility curve to a given structure, on the basis of the taxonomy collected on field, and in addressing 
the major deficiencies among the buildings of the plant. 
• In the case study, the most vulnerable buildings were also those most exposed, i.e. those where large part of the 
production took place. This is believed to be a fundamental information useful to the stakeholder’s decision making, 
allowing to relocate or undertake countermeasures to reduce the impacts of a potential earthquake event. 
• Nevertheless, the success of this analysis is related to the knowledge level that has been possible to achieve about 
the structures under investigation and the availability of fragility curves suitable for describing the seismic 
behaviour of structures.
– main references – 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 
www.grforum.org 
Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
Thanks for your kind attention 
Bolognini D., Borzi B., Pinho R. (2008). Simplified Pushover-based Vulnerability Analysis of Traditional Italian RC precast structures. 
Proceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, October 12-17, 2008 Bejing, China. 
Cornell C. A. and Krawinkler H. (2000). Progress and challenges in seismic performance assessment. PEER News, April 3(2), Pacific Earthquake 
Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, California, US. 
Dowrick D.J. and Rhoades D.A. (1993). Damage costs for commercial and industrial property as a function of intensity in the 1987 Edgecumbe 
earthquake. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 22, 869-884. 
Parisi F., De Luca F., Petruzzelli F., De Risi R., Chioccarelli E., Iervolino I. (2012), Field inspection after the May 20th and 29th 2012 Emilia- 
Romagna earthquakes, available at http://www.reluis.it. 
Petruzzelli F (2013) Scale-dependent procedures for seismic risk assessment and management of industrial building portfolios Ph.D. Thesis in 
Seismic Risk, XXV cycle, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy 
Petruzzelli, F. and Iervolino, I. (2014). FRAME v.1.0: a rapid fragility-based seismic risk assessment tool. Proceedings of the 2ECEES, Second 
European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Aug. 25-29, 2014, Istanbul, Turkey. 
Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD 
Loss Prevention Engineer 
AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy 
fabio.petruzzelli@axa-matrixrc.com

Contenu connexe

Tendances

KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...
KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...
KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- DamianoGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_finalGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

Tendances (20)

POLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpres
POLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpresPOLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpres
POLLACK_HaiyanindicatorsIDRCpres
 
IDRC-Davos-250814-R.Filippini-final
IDRC-Davos-250814-R.Filippini-finalIDRC-Davos-250814-R.Filippini-final
IDRC-Davos-250814-R.Filippini-final
 
Saadia_IDRC14-ppp-template
Saadia_IDRC14-ppp-templateSaadia_IDRC14-ppp-template
Saadia_IDRC14-ppp-template
 
Attolico
AttolicoAttolico
Attolico
 
IDRC14-Szalai_7_4
IDRC14-Szalai_7_4 IDRC14-Szalai_7_4
IDRC14-Szalai_7_4
 
Smakhtin -IDRC -25 August 2014
Smakhtin -IDRC -25 August 2014Smakhtin -IDRC -25 August 2014
Smakhtin -IDRC -25 August 2014
 
KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...
KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...
KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2...
 
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2...
 
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...
KornakovaMarchAmethodforlearningacrossdifferentdisastercasesexampleoftheurban...
 
EDDY-IDRCDavos-RASORv1
EDDY-IDRCDavos-RASORv1EDDY-IDRCDavos-RASORv1
EDDY-IDRCDavos-RASORv1
 
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano
3- Community Preparedness through Risk Communication RAPID LA Peru- Damiano
 
extreme rainfallppt DAVOS-SRLee
extreme rainfallppt DAVOS-SRLeeextreme rainfallppt DAVOS-SRLee
extreme rainfallppt DAVOS-SRLee
 
Whiteside_IDRC14_Davos_final.pptx
Whiteside_IDRC14_Davos_final.pptxWhiteside_IDRC14_Davos_final.pptx
Whiteside_IDRC14_Davos_final.pptx
 
Vollmer et al_IDRC 2014
Vollmer et al_IDRC 2014Vollmer et al_IDRC 2014
Vollmer et al_IDRC 2014
 
Gem idrc 28_8
Gem idrc 28_8Gem idrc 28_8
Gem idrc 28_8
 
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...
TYUBEE-Assessment of vulnerability of rural households to climate hazards-ID1...
 
IDRC2004_CFW_nagamatsu
IDRC2004_CFW_nagamatsuIDRC2004_CFW_nagamatsu
IDRC2004_CFW_nagamatsu
 
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final
20140827_presentation RiskAndCrisisManagement_final
 
IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation
IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentationIDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation
IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation
 
Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014
Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014
Marti and Sobradelo DAVOS 2014
 

En vedette

REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_b
REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_bREGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_b
REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_bGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...eSAT Journals
 
MATLAB ODE
MATLAB ODEMATLAB ODE
MATLAB ODEKris014
 
Optics Fourier Transform Ii
Optics Fourier Transform IiOptics Fourier Transform Ii
Optics Fourier Transform Iidiarmseven
 
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - Honduras
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - HondurasRisks projects - Hazard Maps - Honduras
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - HondurasDavid Gutierrez Rivera
 
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based DesignGilsanz Murray Steficek
 

En vedette (7)

REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_b
REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_bREGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_b
REGENASS-Insurability of high impact low probability events-ID1456-IDRC2014_b
 
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...
Fragility analysis of open ground storey rc building designed using various m...
 
MATLAB ODE
MATLAB ODEMATLAB ODE
MATLAB ODE
 
Optics Fourier Transform Ii
Optics Fourier Transform IiOptics Fourier Transform Ii
Optics Fourier Transform Ii
 
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - Honduras
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - HondurasRisks projects - Hazard Maps - Honduras
Risks projects - Hazard Maps - Honduras
 
SDEE: Lectures 3 and 4
SDEE: Lectures 3 and 4SDEE: Lectures 3 and 4
SDEE: Lectures 3 and 4
 
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design
2015 Structures Congress - Probabilistic Performance Based Design
 

Similaire à FORTE-Seismic risk assessment of industrial plants a case study-ID1277-IDRC2014_b

Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...
Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...
Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...OECD Governance
 
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...ITE Oil&Gas
 
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo BazzuroFERMA
 
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply system
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply systemWolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply system
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply systemGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...Community Protection Forum
 
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - Lubiana
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - LubianaISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - Lubiana
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - LubianaLuca Moroni ✔✔
 
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhofer
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhoferDsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhofer
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhoferDeltares
 
Sociotechnical systems resilience
Sociotechnical systems resilienceSociotechnical systems resilience
Sociotechnical systems resilienceJean-René RUAULT
 
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety Dhrumil Pandya
 
D0.1 V2.0 Project Presentation
D0.1 V2.0 Project PresentationD0.1 V2.0 Project Presentation
D0.1 V2.0 Project Presentationlatifladid
 
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.ppt
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.pptRMSI_DisasterManagement-1.ppt
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.pptMadhukar Sanap
 
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

Similaire à FORTE-Seismic risk assessment of industrial plants a case study-ID1277-IDRC2014_b (20)

Petruzzelli_IDRC_27.08.2014
Petruzzelli_IDRC_27.08.2014Petruzzelli_IDRC_27.08.2014
Petruzzelli_IDRC_27.08.2014
 
Spacone[Conflict]
Spacone[Conflict]Spacone[Conflict]
Spacone[Conflict]
 
IDRC14-MehrdadSasani
IDRC14-MehrdadSasaniIDRC14-MehrdadSasani
IDRC14-MehrdadSasani
 
IDRC14-MehrdadSasani
IDRC14-MehrdadSasaniIDRC14-MehrdadSasani
IDRC14-MehrdadSasani
 
IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
IDRC14-ppp-template_BerariuIDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
 
IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
IDRC14-ppp-template_BerariuIDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu
 
Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...
Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...
Investments in Italy to improve the resilience of infrastructural systems for...
 
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...
Exploration & Production onshore and offshore: technical challenges and their...
 
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro
2015.10.05 ANRA Session Paolo Bazzuro
 
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply system
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply systemWolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply system
Wolfgang Kröger - Reflections focused on the electric power supply system
 
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...
New Models and New Technologies for an Integrated Risk Management in Complex ...
 
Ijciet 10 02_017
Ijciet 10 02_017Ijciet 10 02_017
Ijciet 10 02_017
 
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - Lubiana
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - LubianaISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - Lubiana
ISACA SLOVENIA CHAPTER October 2016 - Lubiana
 
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhofer
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhoferDsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhofer
Dsd int 2014 - open mi symposium -cipr-net and openmi, erick rome, fraunhofer
 
Sociotechnical systems resilience
Sociotechnical systems resilienceSociotechnical systems resilience
Sociotechnical systems resilience
 
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety
Dhrumil pandya 181160720011 safety
 
D0.1 V2.0 Project Presentation
D0.1 V2.0 Project PresentationD0.1 V2.0 Project Presentation
D0.1 V2.0 Project Presentation
 
IDRC14-ppp-template
IDRC14-ppp-templateIDRC14-ppp-template
IDRC14-ppp-template
 
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.ppt
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.pptRMSI_DisasterManagement-1.ppt
RMSI_DisasterManagement-1.ppt
 
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
Seismic Fragility of Equipment and Support Structure in a Unit of an Oil Comp...
 

Plus de Global Risk Forum GRFDavos

Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian DohertyDisaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian DohertyGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLAC&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLAGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANOGlobal Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANOGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDACapacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDAGlobal Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
 

Plus de Global Risk Forum GRFDavos (20)

Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian DohertyDisaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre, Brian Doherty
 
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
Disaster risk reduction and nursing - human science research the view of surv...
 
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
Global alliance of disaster research institutes (GADRI) discussion session, A...
 
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
Towards a safe, secure and sustainable energy supply the role of resilience i...
 
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
Making Hard Choices An Analysis of Settlement Choices and Willingness to Retu...
 
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
The Relocation Challenges in Coastal Urban Centers Options and Limitations, A...
 
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLAC&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
C&A Save the Children Urban DRR Project, Ray KANCHARLA
 
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
Involving the Mining Sector in Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality, Simone ...
 
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
Disaster Risk Reduction and Nursing - Human Science research the view of surv...
 
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
Training and awareness raising in Critical Infrastructure Protection & Resili...
 
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
IDRC Davos 2016 - Workshop Awareness Raising, Education and Training - Capaci...
 
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANOGlobal Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes - Hirokazu TATANO
 
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDACapacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
Capacity Development for DRR, Beatrice PROGIDA
 
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
Dynamic factors influencing the post-disaster resettlement success Lessons fr...
 
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
Consequences of the Armed Conflict as a Stressor of Climate Change in Colombi...
 
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
Disaster Risk Perception in Cameroon and its Implications for the Rehabilitat...
 
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
Systematic Knowledge Sharing of Natural Hazard Damages in Public-private Part...
 
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
Exploring the Effectiveness of Humanitarian NGO-Private Sector Collaborations...
 
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
Can UK Water Service Providers Manage Risk and Resilience as Part of a Multi-...
 
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
A Holistic Approach Towards International Disaster Resilient Architecture by ...
 

FORTE-Seismic risk assessment of industrial plants a case study-ID1277-IDRC2014_b

  • 1. Please add your Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: A Case Study from the Emilia 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 2012 Earthquake Sequence Marcello Forte, Davide Spanò, Fabio Petruzzelli, AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy logo here
  • 2. Motivation of the study 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy • Recent seismic events affecting industrialized countries (Japan, 2011; Emilia, 2012) readily showed the importance of having an efficient, transparent and proactive management of the seismic risk. • Traditional seismic risk assessment heavily rely on qualitative risk estimates, based on macroseismic intensity and/or expert judgment. However, an essential step of an aware risk management and decision making process is a sound quantitative risk assessment. This requires specific, rapid and user-friendly tools, able to capture the peculiarities of the structure under investigation and the differences between available models for modelling risk. • Development of instruments for a rapid and user-friendly probabilistic seismic risk assessment: “FRAME@Risk” – Fragility-based rapid seismic Risk Assessment Method” v.1.0 software • Test the procedures on real cases
  • 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Under human control Exposure ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy From a qualitative to a quantitative (probabilistic) seismic risk assessment Quantitative approaches to seismic risk encompass individual quantification of the three component of seismic risk, namely the seismic hazard (seismicity of the site); the vulnerability (building structural response); and the exposure (building occupancy and contents). Risk = H x V x E Hazard Vulnerability
  • 4. Seismic risk is defined as the the probability or likelihood of exceeding a pre-defined level of loss due to earthquakes to a given element at risk, over a specified period of time. Failure Probability Fragility Curves (probability of exceeding some damage state) Structural Engineering Consequence function (or damage-to-loss function) stakeholders Moderate 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Hazard Curve Seismologists ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland Expected loss www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Seismic Risk Assessment Exceedance probability Intensity Measure (IM) Hazard Exceedance probability Intensity Measure (IM) Fragility Expected Loss given a damage state (“failure”) Exposure 퐸 퐿 = 퐸 퐿|푓 ∙ 푃푓 퐸 퐿|푓 Slight Collapse Hazard Curve Fragility Curve Pf = failure probability (proportional to the overlapping area)
  • 5. Comparison&conversion tool Loss module 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy The FRAME@Risk software the ensemble of FRAME@Risk modules: (i) allows performing a rapid, user-friendly and worldwide applicable evaluation of structure-specific seismic losses; (ii) provides an inventory of existing fragility functions that can be managed and expanded (to date, about 600 fragility functions); (iii) allows the comparison and homogenization of fragility curves; (iv) provides instruments for the identification of the most suitable fragility curves, among those available, to describe the seismic performance of a structure. The FRAME@Risk software tool FRAME main module Manager tool MAIN FUNCTIONS: • define a new fragility curve; according to taxonomy; • collapse and expand taxonomy; • open/modify existing curves. MAIN FUNCTIONS: • compare fragility curves; • convert IMs; •manipulate limit states; • compute statistics. MAIN FUNCTIONS: • choose damage-to-loss functions; • compute losses due to PD and BI. Fragility filter tool MAIN FUNCTION: • filter fragilities according to the selected taxonomy. • Allows the input of the data required for the assessment: − site-specific hazard, − fragility curves suitable for the case under consideration, − damage-to-loss function) • Provides the output: − failure probabilities − expected losses
  • 6. • The affected area is characterized by an high cultural and historical heritage and it is one of the most densely industrialized Italian centers (the 2% of the Italian GDP is produced by activities in the stricken area) 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy The Emilia 2012 earthquake sequence • M 5.9 earthquake on 20th May 2012 - 4:03 am UTC. Epicenter: close to Finale Emilia; depth: 6.3 Km. • M 5.8 earthquake on 29th May - 9:00 am UTC. Epicenter: Medolla (18 km S-W far from the 1st event); depth: 10 Km. The seismic sequence covered a large area extending in the E-W direction for a length of nearly 40 km, between the localities of Mirandola and Ferrara [INGV, 2012] • Consequences: − 27 casualties − about 400 injured and 15,000 homeless − 13.2 billion Euros of property damage and BI (Italian Department for Civil Protection); − 1.3 billion Euros of Insured Losses (10% of Total Losses; in L’Aquila 2009 about the 2%) • Causes: − enforcement of seismic provisions in the affected area only in 2009 (2003 for strategic buildings). − Soft alluvial subsoil in the area caused significant ground shaking amplification and, in some cases, soil liquefaction.
  • 7. 11 7 8 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Building characteristics ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland 4 5 6 9 10 12 www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy The Case Study Plant 1 2 3 • fragility functions specifically computed for Italian precast buildings with different details in terms of joint, reinforcement, structural regularities, and cladding characteristics. • The consequence function was chosen on the basis of the content vulnerability class • Plant dedicated to the production of medical devices; • Total property value = about 100 million Euros (buildings = 27 mln; machineries=47 mil; stock=28 mln); • 12 buildings, built from 1966 to 2011; • Maximum horizontal acceleration (PGA) registered at the site = 0.3 g [INGV, 2012] • After the earthquakes the plant suffered about 5.5 million euros o PD and about 2 months of downtime • AXA MATRIX knowledge forms for industrial buildings • Design documents o geometrical characteristics (e.g. number of floors, height, plan and elevation dimensions) o mechanical characteristics (e.g. material, load resisting system, detailing, irregularities, etc.) o detailed description of the observed damage Building characteristics Building and content/equipment vulnerability (from FRAME@Risk inventory) Building exposed value [% of the total plant value] name material design year fragility curve vulnera-bility class Building Machineries &Equipment Stock Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1972- 1981 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5% Building and content/equipment vulnerability (from FRAME@Risk inventory) Building exposed value [% of the total plant value] fragility curve vulnera-bility class Building Machineries &Equipment Stock AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5% Building and content/equipment vulnerability (from FRAME@Risk inventory) Building exposed value [% of the total plant value] name material design year fragility curve vulnera-bility class Building Machineries &Equipment Stock Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1972- 1981 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
  • 8. Results of the analysis (1/3) Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one Large part of the production took place in Bld. 2 and Bld.6, that were also those which suffered the major structural damages 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Building characteristics Building and content/equipment vulnerability (from FRAME@Risk inventory) Building exposed value [% of the total plant value] name material design year fragility curve vulnera-bility class Building Machineries &Equipment Stock Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1972- 1981 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
  • 9. Results of the analysis (1/3) Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one Building 9 was subject to slight damage and minor to moderate loss of content 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Building characteristics Building and content/equipment vulnerability (from FRAME@Risk inventory) Building exposed value [% of the total plant value] name material design year fragility curve vulnera-bility class Building Machineries &Equipment Stock Bld.1-Offices Cast in pl. r.c. 1990 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-MR-NC Medium 7,58% 0,6% 0,00% Bld.2-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type4//ND-IRR Fragile 12,6% 45,5% 2,9% Bld.3-Production Precast r.c. 1983 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Robust 5,3% 19,3% 1,2% Bld.4-Production Precast r.c. 1990 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type1//D-IRR Medium 5,0% 17,9% 1,1% Bld.5-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2011 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type4//D-REG Robust 12,7% 0,6% 8,7% Bld.6-Production Precast r.c. 1977 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-IRR Fragile 15,1% 5,2% 7,2% Bld.7-Production Precast r.c. 2002 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type1//D-IRR Fragile 9,7% 3,3% 3,5% Bld.8-Warehouse Precast r.c. 1982 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 6,7% 0,3% 9,5% Bld.9-Warehouse Precast r.c. 2003 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type3//D-REG Robust 15,3% 0,7% 42,1% Bld.10-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1993 BologniniEtAl2008_FW4_type2//D-REG Robust 3,3% 0,7% 18,5% Bld.11-Product. Cast in pl. r.c. 1966 AXA_CLASS_RC-MRF-LR-NC Medium 2,6% 5,7% 0,9% Bld.12-Warehs. Precast r.c. 1972- 1981 BologniniEtAl2008_FW10_type3//ND-REG Robust 4,2% 0,2% 4,5%
  • 10. Comparison of the estimated physical damage (FRAME@Risk software) to the observed one 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Results of the analysis (2/3) Distribution of estimated losses inside the plant (normalized with respect to the total value of the component at risk) 0% Building loss / total value [%] Building Machineries & Equipment Stock The large part of the stock is located in Bld.9 and Bld. 5, the good structural characteristics of which limit the extent of the loss Bld.2 and Bld.6 are those for which the largest damage to building is observed
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Results of the analysis (3/3) Comparison of estimated losses with the adjusted ones • The comparison between FRAME@Risk estimates and the real losses is performed in terms of adjusted losses, rather than claims. The comparison is done for building component only. 0% Building loss / building value [%] Expected Loss (FRAME@Risk estimate) Adjusted Loss (after claim) Although a comparison of the expected losses obtained through a probabilistic approach with the losses deriving from a single real event is hardly feasible, as a general result the total loss associated to the buildings is: Adjusted = 5.5 million Euros 20% of the total building value Estimated (FRAME@Risk) = 6.5 million Euros 24% of the total building value - good coherency between estimated and adjusted losses was obtained, - Losses are overestimated when structures experienced minor to null damage (e.g., Bld. 9) - Conversely, in case of collapse (e.g. Bld.10 and Bld.2)
  • 12. • Good coherency between the expected losses estimated by the procedure and the real losses was observed, with a tendency in overestimating the observed loss for a given scenario earthquake was observed, that is almost intrinsic in a probabilistic approach and more pronounced for structures that have experienced minor damages. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Conclusions • A case study from the Emilia Earthquake 2012 has been presented, with the aim of comparing the direct loss estimations performed throughout the FRAME@Risk software against the loss adjusted after the claim process • The application of the FRAME@Risk software tool showed the capability of the software in guiding the association of a specific fragility curve to a given structure, on the basis of the taxonomy collected on field, and in addressing the major deficiencies among the buildings of the plant. • In the case study, the most vulnerable buildings were also those most exposed, i.e. those where large part of the production took place. This is believed to be a fundamental information useful to the stakeholder’s decision making, allowing to relocate or undertake countermeasures to reduce the impacts of a potential earthquake event. • Nevertheless, the success of this analysis is related to the knowledge level that has been possible to achieve about the structures under investigation and the availability of fragility curves suitable for describing the seismic behaviour of structures.
  • 13. – main references – 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Seismic Risk Assessment of Industrial Plants: a Case Study from the Emilia 2012 Earthquake Sequence Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD, Loss Prevention Engineer – AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy Thanks for your kind attention Bolognini D., Borzi B., Pinho R. (2008). Simplified Pushover-based Vulnerability Analysis of Traditional Italian RC precast structures. Proceedings of the 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, October 12-17, 2008 Bejing, China. Cornell C. A. and Krawinkler H. (2000). Progress and challenges in seismic performance assessment. PEER News, April 3(2), Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, Berkeley, California, US. Dowrick D.J. and Rhoades D.A. (1993). Damage costs for commercial and industrial property as a function of intensity in the 1987 Edgecumbe earthquake. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 22, 869-884. Parisi F., De Luca F., Petruzzelli F., De Risi R., Chioccarelli E., Iervolino I. (2012), Field inspection after the May 20th and 29th 2012 Emilia- Romagna earthquakes, available at http://www.reluis.it. Petruzzelli F (2013) Scale-dependent procedures for seismic risk assessment and management of industrial building portfolios Ph.D. Thesis in Seismic Risk, XXV cycle, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Naples, Italy Petruzzelli, F. and Iervolino, I. (2014). FRAME v.1.0: a rapid fragility-based seismic risk assessment tool. Proceedings of the 2ECEES, Second European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Aug. 25-29, 2014, Istanbul, Turkey. Fabio Petruzzelli, PhD Loss Prevention Engineer AXA MATRIX Risk Consultants, Milan, Italy fabio.petruzzelli@axa-matrixrc.com

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Quantitative seismic risk assessment, providing sound probabilistic estimates of potential earthquake impacts, is a key step of any meaningful and aware decision-making process.
  2. Nine days later … causing additional damages, particularly to buildings already weakened by the 20th May shock This was the first time since 1570 that an earthquake of this magnitude had hit this region Large portion of the industrial building stock was made up of precast reinforced buildings, designed for wind actions or gravitational loads, due to enforcement of seismic provisions in the affected area only in 2009 (2003 for strategic buildings). The damage observed was certainly exacerbated by the soft alluvial subsoil in the area, which caused significant ground shaking amplification and, in some cases, soil liquefaction.
  3. The fragility database and the detailed taxonomy implemented in the tool allowed to employ fragility functions specifically computed for Italian precast buildings (e.g. Bolognini et al., 2008) with different details in terms of joint, reinforcement, structural regularities, and cladding characteristics.
  4. Bld.2 and Bld.6 are those for which the largest damage to building is observed The high vulnerability of Bld.2 is also the responsible for an expected loss to machineries&equipment of about 18% of the total value of equipment in the plant Conversely, relatively low levels of losses are expected for buildings 5, 9 and 10, as a consequence of the recent design of their structures and of good structural characteristics and maintenance
  5. Although a comparison of the expected losses obtained through a probabilistic approach with the losses deriving from a single real event is hardly feasible, as a general result it can be observed that FRAME@Risk provides, for the whole building portfolio, an average loss equal to the 25% of the total building value, with respect to an average adjusted loss of about the 20% (including debris removal for collapsed buildings). The only cases in which an opposite trend (underestimated expected losses) emerged, were Bld.10 and Bld.2. The former was a warehouse dedicated to the storage of raw materials, with very low exposed values and losses (see Fig.5), which behaved, during the earthquakes, worse than it was reasonable to expect from its structural typology and characteristics. The latter, was the building in which the largest part of the production took place and the one that experienced the complete collapse. In this case, a unique damage state occurred (the complete collapse) and (almost) the total exposed value was actually lost. In a probabilistic approach this could have been taken into account through the choice of fragility curves providing an almost null probability of exceeding damage conditions different from the collapse. Nevertheless, this “almost deterministic” choice is hardly feasible in a predictive assessment of the seismic risk.
  6. Moreover, due to the availability of adjusted losses for building damage only, the comparison was not performed for damages to machineries, equipment and contents, which may represent a further development of this study. The assessment of expected losses due to the largest ground motion intensity felt at the site during the earthquake sequence was performed accounting for structural and non-structural damages, including those to machinery and equipment and stock contents. This could be related to several factors:(i) the probabilistic nature of the assessment, (ii) the conventional definition of damage states, (iii) the adoption of a specific fragility curve and damage-to-loss function. While the first two points of the previous list are intrinsic in the approach, the last one is strictly related to the uncertainty in assessing structural and non-structural characteristics.
  7. This could be related to several factors:(i) the probabilistic nature of the assessment, (ii) the conventional definition of damage states, (iii) the adoption of a specific fragility curve and damage-to-loss function. While the first two points of the previous list are intrinsic in the approach, the last one is strictly related to the uncertainty in assessing structural and non-structural characteristics.