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MODELING THE UTTAKAHRAND FLOOD-
TUSNAMI IN HIMALAYA MOUNTAIN-DISASTER IN UTTHARAKHAND
Mountain lake
reservoir modeling
Georges Radjou CEO MBA DUPEBH
Georges.radjou@yahoo.com
(Business Innovation Research Development - BIRD)
Risk concept
Source(s)
Issue
(s)
Impact (s)
AS I HAVE ASSUMED WITH THE TEAM
(UNESCO, INDIAN EXPERTS AND EMMA
-EXPERT IN PREDICTIVE MODELING- THE
ROOT CAUSES (SOURCES OF RISKS) OF
THE DISASTER IS TEMPORARY WATER
ACCUMALATION IN ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR
FOLLOWED BY
THE RESERVOIR WALL RUPTURES HAVE
IMPACTED (PRIMARILY AND SECUNDARY
IMPACTS) ON THE COMMUNITY LIFE,
LIVELIHOODS AND PROPERTIES, AS WELL
AS THE WELL-BEING ;
THE RESERVOIR RUPTURES (WHICH WAS THE RISK ISSUE) WHEN
THE RESERVOIR MATERIALS (RESERVOIR WATER + SEDIMENTS +
RESERVOIR WALLS (THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OR DEBRIS AND
SEDIMENTS...) ? SOIL SURFACES AND SUB-SOIL I.E SOIL
UNDERGROUND AND THE SHALLOW LAYERD OF AQUIFERS).
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source ; author
I think the most appropriate and adapted technology model to mimic / reproduce/model
wiith the assumptions recoded on the Flood tsunami experience from conversation and
narrative with / of risk masters (UNESCO hydrology experts, Emma hydraulic prediction
expert, India experts on the tsunamin disaster) and the information given by the media
the Himalaya water, is according to me, and the nature and the scale of reservoir lake in
mountain ruptures that created that let to the disaster without possibilities for rescuers to
save lives, assets, livlihoods and propertie IT IS A WASTE WATER PUMPING MACHINE
Water out
Water in
SOURCE OF
RISKS
Water
reservoir
accumulate
d in the
Himalaya
Mts
TEMPORARY LAKES WITH HEAVY RAINS, THE MOUNTAIN MATERIALS COMPOSING
THE RESERVOIR REACHED A CRITICAL RUPTURE POINT AND THE CAUSES OF
LANDSLIDES AND THE TSUNAMI IN MOUNTAINS THAT FLOW IN THE VALLEYS
Fig. 1: PROJECT GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE
AND BUSINESS MODEL
BUSINESS MODEL
ANALOGY TO A
WASTE WATER
PUMP MACHINE
MANUAL
HAND
Pump Body
Waste water
pumped in
storage
Business case
Modeling
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source; author
Q -water flows
(M³ /second)
Surface water
reservoir
Bottom
H
Without sediment and debris
the water is clean, then the
pump can treat a higher
volume of water (H)
Water out
Pump performance (W) linked
to H → W = W(H)
Fig 1a : Uncertainty on Knowledge of the nature of soil structures,
and sediments accumulatioon could create a landslide
The waste water pump modeling is interesting, because if the stakeholder knew
that temporary lakes during the monsoon could create a flood in mountains,
they could have prevented it by using pumps to drain the water formation (H) in
the artificial lakes, so that the reservoir materials can resist to the water tenses
on the reservoir wallls (soil and mountain slopes)-reservoir bottom.
Solution to people displacment waspumping water or preventing the water
accumulation by avoiding water stock reaching a critical levels (H), also the
pump performance limit.
With sediment the pump performance is reduced as the (power of
the pump is concserve)- H- T = e
Excess of water, which is stagnant i.e. and if not drained is about
to reach a critical mass leading to tenses over the reservoir
materials and risk of ruptures, leading to a flood in the valley-
impacting on peoples securities and safeties
T
Fig. 1: Uncertainty on the role
of sediments- sediment volume
Influencing the water elevation
and the reservoir peak of
discharge or the reservoir
rupture, if no drainage action
is providing either by preventing
sediment accumulation or
maintaining the reservoir drainage
to avoid the criticals
With reservoir ruptures sources
Of flood in the valleys and tsunami
in mountains with landslides
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Sediments
BIRD CEO
Source; author
What are the risks created by the sediments (in case of a
large land surface is covered -it is always more often the
case in flood plain in valleys are the slopes of the
mountains are sharper than on flat surfaces-
10%Flood
Good-
Flood
farming Houshold living area
h
Valley
slopes
Flat land slopes
(Modeling the Flood Plains)
Flood plain
maximal
10%
90%
90%
Flat land with
a small slope
Valley land
with a high
slope
Fig 3 : uncertainty on valley slopes
Flood division at WMO said, if a land is 10% covered with
sediment, it is good for flood farming
But, if over 40% of the country land surface is covered by
the flood waters during the inundation, it will be a disaster
In montain valleys slopes are rarely small, therefore
expect a minor flood for a flat land to be a giant flood or
tsunami
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
BIRD CEO
Source; author
END (part 1)
Georges RADJOU
BUSINESS INNOVATION
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT
27 Ter Bld Saint Martin, 75 003
PARIS
Tel. 01 44 59 64 90
DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS
Model used is mimic tha valley (Peoples, Systems and
organizations)
The rivers
(water river basin
where the floods
occurrred)
Mainstreeam going to the lower
lewer part of the valley (water out)
Individual Vallay river drainage
Z
Total size of the valley
water basin where the
flood the monsoon
ePhysical
elements
Urbanism
Roads,
infrastrucutre
industrialization
Dry feet
zone
Zo > Z= e
Flow in
(Monsoon water
in from the rain)
Fig. 4: Uncertainty on Dry feet zones
i.e. urbanism, roads and
infrastructures, aged technologies,
Over population (Pligrims), pollutions
and lack of maintenance of the valley
and lack of land planning and
management, risk mapping...
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO
Sediments and the
reservoir are
creating temporary
water buffers
Fig. 5 : Recommendation
Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the
mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical
mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a
disaster resilience program.
NAME OF
CITY
SEDIMENT
MONITORI
NG
RESERVOIR
FILL START
DATE OF
RUPTURE
MAINTENANE
City X
City Y
City Z
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO
Fig. 5 : Recommendation
Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the
mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical
mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a
disaster resilience program.
NAME OF
CITY
SEDIMENT
MONITORI
NG
RESERVOIR
FILL START
DATE OF
RUPTURE
MAINTENANE
City X
City Y
City Z
DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT
Source; author
BIRD CEO

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2013 UTTARAKHAND DISASTER IN HIMALAYA AND THE GIANT FLOOD IN MOUNTAIN

  • 1. MODELING THE UTTAKAHRAND FLOOD- TUSNAMI IN HIMALAYA MOUNTAIN-DISASTER IN UTTHARAKHAND Mountain lake reservoir modeling Georges Radjou CEO MBA DUPEBH Georges.radjou@yahoo.com (Business Innovation Research Development - BIRD)
  • 3. AS I HAVE ASSUMED WITH THE TEAM (UNESCO, INDIAN EXPERTS AND EMMA -EXPERT IN PREDICTIVE MODELING- THE ROOT CAUSES (SOURCES OF RISKS) OF THE DISASTER IS TEMPORARY WATER ACCUMALATION IN ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR FOLLOWED BY THE RESERVOIR WALL RUPTURES HAVE IMPACTED (PRIMARILY AND SECUNDARY IMPACTS) ON THE COMMUNITY LIFE, LIVELIHOODS AND PROPERTIES, AS WELL AS THE WELL-BEING ; THE RESERVOIR RUPTURES (WHICH WAS THE RISK ISSUE) WHEN THE RESERVOIR MATERIALS (RESERVOIR WATER + SEDIMENTS + RESERVOIR WALLS (THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OR DEBRIS AND SEDIMENTS...) ? SOIL SURFACES AND SUB-SOIL I.E SOIL UNDERGROUND AND THE SHALLOW LAYERD OF AQUIFERS). DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source ; author
  • 4. I think the most appropriate and adapted technology model to mimic / reproduce/model wiith the assumptions recoded on the Flood tsunami experience from conversation and narrative with / of risk masters (UNESCO hydrology experts, Emma hydraulic prediction expert, India experts on the tsunamin disaster) and the information given by the media the Himalaya water, is according to me, and the nature and the scale of reservoir lake in mountain ruptures that created that let to the disaster without possibilities for rescuers to save lives, assets, livlihoods and propertie IT IS A WASTE WATER PUMPING MACHINE Water out Water in SOURCE OF RISKS Water reservoir accumulate d in the Himalaya Mts TEMPORARY LAKES WITH HEAVY RAINS, THE MOUNTAIN MATERIALS COMPOSING THE RESERVOIR REACHED A CRITICAL RUPTURE POINT AND THE CAUSES OF LANDSLIDES AND THE TSUNAMI IN MOUNTAINS THAT FLOW IN THE VALLEYS Fig. 1: PROJECT GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE AND BUSINESS MODEL BUSINESS MODEL ANALOGY TO A WASTE WATER PUMP MACHINE MANUAL HAND Pump Body Waste water pumped in storage Business case Modeling DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 5. Q -water flows (M³ /second) Surface water reservoir Bottom H Without sediment and debris the water is clean, then the pump can treat a higher volume of water (H) Water out Pump performance (W) linked to H → W = W(H) Fig 1a : Uncertainty on Knowledge of the nature of soil structures, and sediments accumulatioon could create a landslide The waste water pump modeling is interesting, because if the stakeholder knew that temporary lakes during the monsoon could create a flood in mountains, they could have prevented it by using pumps to drain the water formation (H) in the artificial lakes, so that the reservoir materials can resist to the water tenses on the reservoir wallls (soil and mountain slopes)-reservoir bottom. Solution to people displacment waspumping water or preventing the water accumulation by avoiding water stock reaching a critical levels (H), also the pump performance limit. With sediment the pump performance is reduced as the (power of the pump is concserve)- H- T = e Excess of water, which is stagnant i.e. and if not drained is about to reach a critical mass leading to tenses over the reservoir materials and risk of ruptures, leading to a flood in the valley- impacting on peoples securities and safeties T Fig. 1: Uncertainty on the role of sediments- sediment volume Influencing the water elevation and the reservoir peak of discharge or the reservoir rupture, if no drainage action is providing either by preventing sediment accumulation or maintaining the reservoir drainage to avoid the criticals With reservoir ruptures sources Of flood in the valleys and tsunami in mountains with landslides DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Sediments BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 6. What are the risks created by the sediments (in case of a large land surface is covered -it is always more often the case in flood plain in valleys are the slopes of the mountains are sharper than on flat surfaces- 10%Flood Good- Flood farming Houshold living area h Valley slopes Flat land slopes (Modeling the Flood Plains) Flood plain maximal 10% 90% 90% Flat land with a small slope Valley land with a high slope Fig 3 : uncertainty on valley slopes Flood division at WMO said, if a land is 10% covered with sediment, it is good for flood farming But, if over 40% of the country land surface is covered by the flood waters during the inundation, it will be a disaster In montain valleys slopes are rarely small, therefore expect a minor flood for a flat land to be a giant flood or tsunami DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 7. END (part 1) Georges RADJOU BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT 27 Ter Bld Saint Martin, 75 003 PARIS Tel. 01 44 59 64 90
  • 8. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS Model used is mimic tha valley (Peoples, Systems and organizations) The rivers (water river basin where the floods occurrred) Mainstreeam going to the lower lewer part of the valley (water out) Individual Vallay river drainage Z Total size of the valley water basin where the flood the monsoon ePhysical elements Urbanism Roads, infrastrucutre industrialization Dry feet zone Zo > Z= e Flow in (Monsoon water in from the rain) Fig. 4: Uncertainty on Dry feet zones i.e. urbanism, roads and infrastructures, aged technologies, Over population (Pligrims), pollutions and lack of maintenance of the valley and lack of land planning and management, risk mapping... DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO Sediments and the reservoir are creating temporary water buffers
  • 9. Fig. 5 : Recommendation Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a disaster resilience program. NAME OF CITY SEDIMENT MONITORI NG RESERVOIR FILL START DATE OF RUPTURE MAINTENANE City X City Y City Z DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO
  • 10. Fig. 5 : Recommendation Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a disaster resilience program. NAME OF CITY SEDIMENT MONITORI NG RESERVOIR FILL START DATE OF RUPTURE MAINTENANE City X City Y City Z DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO