Our world needs a rapid transition to a new energy future, beyond fossil fuels. How can it be achieved?

1. Practical Solutions to Global Warming and the Energy Crisis Guy Dauncey The Post-Carbon Future

2. Question:

3. We have been walking on two feet for six million years

4. Each generation has successfully passed on the wisdom in its genes and its knowledge.

5. Do you think future humans will do the same, so that humans will be living and thriving on Planet Earth in a million years time?

6. YES NO “ In a million years time”

7. YES NO

8. YES NO

9. YES NO

11. THE HUMAN JOURNEY

12. We’ve come a long way from this….

13. to this….

14. We live on the edge of one of 100 billion galaxies

15. We take almost all our energy from the Sun

18. 8 minutes and 19 seconds ago, the light and heat we are seeing and feeling now was on the surface of the Sun.

19. The Sun sends the energy that trees absorb and store

20. 800,000 years ago, we discovered how to make fire.

21. For 800,000 years, we used firewood as our primary source of energy.

22. Then we discovered coal…

23. Using coal, we started the industrial revolution

24. Then we discovered oil…

25. and natural gas…

26. Whether it’s coal, oil or gas, it’s all ancient fossilized solar energy, stored for 100 million years.

27. ..but the Sun is rapidly setting on the Age of Fossil Fuels.

28. 20,000 years is the Age of Fossil Fuels This 10,000 years past 10,000 years future

29. Guy Dauncey 2009 www.earthfuture.com

31. Survey of petroleum geologists October 2008 61% think already, or within ten years

32. International Energy Agency Senior IEA official: “ The IEA has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.” Terry Macalister, Guardian UK Nov 9 2009

33. Alberta’s oil sands… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

34. Only producing 1.2 million barrels a day. We consume 84 million barrels a day.

36. Out of gas - Chongquin, China

39. If we don’t prepare….

40. And then there’s climate change…

41. In 200 years, we are burning most of that ancient solar energy … and then it’s gone.

42. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com As we burn this ancient solar energy…

43. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com we release its carbon into the atmosphere.

44. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2

45. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2

46. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

47. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2

48. As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 CO 2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

49. Deutsche Bank Near Madison Square Garden, New York www.dbcca.com We have added 3.6 trillion tonnes of heat-trapping greenhouse gases to our atmosphere. Rising by 1,000 tonnes every second.

55.  Iqoncept Dreamstime.com

56.  Smithore Dreamstime.com

57.  Tatyana Chernyak Dreamstime.com

58. We are being besieged with negativity, and disbelief in our future.

60. It’s all about sustainability, leadership…

61.  Antonia Dreamstime.com … and our grandchildren

62. The Renaissance was the launch pad for the Scientific Revolution Wikimedia

63. Wikimedia The Scientific Revolution was the launch pad for the Industrial Revolution

64. The Industrial Age becomes the launch-pad for the Solar Age .

65. The incredible energy of fossil fuels has enabled us to build the scientific and technological capital we need to advance beyond fossil fuels….

66. Rolf Disch Solar Architecture … into the Solar Age.

67. A 100% Shift to Renewable Energy  Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

69. Wood Solar Fossil Solar Solar Solar Wikimedia

70. You are the midwives of the Solar Revolution

75. 100% Renewable Energy What does It look like?  Martinedegraaf Dreamstime.com

76. 1. Electricity

80. Solar PV 40% growth pa 50-80 cents/kWh - and falling Global Potential: Enormous Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

81. Solar PV in Germany

82. Solar Stadium, Taiwan

83. Dow’s Solar Shingles

84. Thin film solar

85. Thin film solar production

86. Price per Watt: 1985 = $10. 2010 = $4. The module represents 50-60% of the total installed cost of a solar PV system

87. Data from Stephen O'Rourke, senior analyst for semiconductor equipment and materials, Deutsche Bank Securities, via www.energyandcapital.com, February 2008

88. Solar market penetration

90. Solar Millennium AG Solar thermal energy

91. The Sun radiates almost 1000 times more energy onto the Earth’s deserts than humankind uses.

92. Large square 254 sq km, if all solar thermal = current world electricity use Small square 110 sq km = current European Union use www.trecers.org

93. Siemens AG

95. 2006 prediction for 2009:

96. 2009 reality: www.wwindea.org

97. 2007: 173 TWh 2009: 340 TWh Global technical potential: 410,000 TWh = 12 x global electricity needs Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

98. Proposed Green Power Corridors Corporate Knights, Nov 2006

100. Europe’s geothermal resources at 5 km deep: 1 km 3 of hot granite delivers 10 MW for 20 years (900 TWh/year) Available resource: 125,000 km 3 = 112,500,000 TWh/year Spread over 1,000 years = 112,500 TWh/year European energy use = 13,000 TWh/year = 10 times Europe’s energy use

101. Tying it Together: The Distributed Grid Bonneville Power Administration, WA Guy Dauncey 2010 www.earthfuture.com

103. Smart Metering 20% reduction Time of Use Metering 12% reduction

105. Germ Cost of electricity in Germany: 32 cents kWh Ontario: 4 - 9 cents kWh

106. Efficiency + smart metering + wind energy + solar PV + solar thermal + hydropower + geothermal power + tidal & wave power + biomass power + smart grid + new storage technologies + gradually phased out nuclear power = 100% zero-carbon electricity

107. 2. Transport without Oil

108. Ancient Technology - Feet Toronto Walking School Bus Toronto Walking School Bus

109. Nanjing pedestrian street, Shanghai

110. Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, Korea

111. Cisco Systems

112. Cycling: 36% of all commute trips in Copenhagen are by bike. Goal is 50% by 2015.

113. San Francisco - safe protected bike lane

114. Electric bikes…. 1 cent per 20 km

115. Madsen urban utility bike ($1300) + eZee motor and battery ($1300) E-Biking with the whole family…

117. E-Zip electric bike - $350 from Walmart 30 km range

118. Public Transit

119. Hasselt, Belgium: Free Transit included in city taxes Since 1996, 11-fold increase in ridership

121. Christoph Groneck, Trams-in-France.net

122. Philly CarShare 50,000 people share 270 vehicles City reduced its fleet by 330 vehicles See

123. Ride sharing…

124. Nissan Leaf EV. $25 - $30,000 Coming in 2011 Running cost under $10/week, plus $150/month battery lease. Electric Vehicles

125. RWE Mobility.com

128. CalCars.org

129. Louis Palmer and his Solar Taxi 33,000 km around the world $8 a week running cost

130. Walking + cycling + transit + rail and light rail + videoconferencing + ridesharing + carsharing + electric vehicles + plug-in hybrid electric vehicles + biofuel capacity + vehicle efficiency increase + road pricing = 100% zero carbon personal transport

131. Siemens AG

133. Smith Electric Trucks www.smithelectricvehicles.com

134. Biofuel being grown from algae

135. Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel New Scientist, Sept 2008

136. Replacing aviation fuel with biofuel New Scientist, Sept 2008

137. Hypothetical large scale algae farm

138. Heat: can we generate it without fossil fuels?

139. Passive House, Frankfurt, Germany Uses 95% less energy

140. Stockholm uses heat from treated sewage effluent to provide hot water and heating to 80,000 apartments - Stephen Salter, 2007

141. Pre-insulated piping used to heat homes and commercial buildings in Scandinavia. Delivers hot water at 200 o C to customers up to 23 km away. Photo and text by Jayson Antonoff

142. Beddington Zero Energy Housing (BedZED)  Sutton, London, UK Energy Centre

143. The Energy Centre Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta Solar Thermal Heating 12 months a year Community solar heat panels Solar hot water panels Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com

144. 800 solar hot water panels on the garages 90% of residential space heating needs is met by stored solar thermal energy (40-50 o C)

145. Dockside Green, Victoria 15 acres, holistic design, all LEED Platinum 55% less energy than model building code www.docksidegreen.com

146. Pearl River Tower Guangzhou, China

149. Heat Exchange A heat exchange floor being laid Air-source Ground-source Water-source Sewer-source Ice-Source

152. Geothermal Radial Drilling European geo-drilling technique http://geothermic.tracto-technik.com

153. Ice-Source Heat Richmond Olympic Skating Oval

154. Solar hot water

155. CSIRO

156. Solar Thermal Housing, Rostock, Germany Sorce: Solvis

157. Solar thermal + Solar PV + Skylights

158. Wood Pellets Stove

159. = wood pellet plants

160. London Use of infrared heat leakage mapping to identify priorities for energy retrofitting.

161. www.hotmapping.co.uk

162. The Road to Success

163. Gussing

165. Gussing Population 8,000 Small, isolated, forested. 1988, one of the poorest regions in Austria Few local jobs. 70% of local people worked in Vienna (160 km) or Graz (90 km) $8 million annual bill for fuel and energy Early 1990s, policy proposal calling for the complete abandonment of all fossil-fuel-based energy

166. Gussing Since 1995, they have achieved a 93% transition off fossil fuels. = 93% reduction in their carbon footprint.

167. Heat, electricity and fuel from forest biomass, corn, waste cooking oil, & solar. Continuous biomass gasification of wood

168. Solar-biomass plant

169. Biomass electrical power plant 4500 kW long distance heat and 2000 kW electricity from 1760 kg of wood per hour.

170. Biodiesel from canola, sunflowers, waste cooking oils, and fats

171. Gussing School 100 m 2 solar thermal plant saves 15,000 kWh/year. 10 kW Solar PV plant generates 9,000 kWh/year. Annual income = approx. Euros 5 ,400.

172. Long distance heat plant Burns sawdust and chopped forest timber Drying kiln for timber, heat for 200 homes + 40 large buildings

173. 594 kW solar and biomass plant 39 customers 2.5 kilometres heat network 850,000 kWh heat per year

174. Long distance heat supply 41 customers 600 kW boiler 2.5 kilometres heat supply

175. Since 1995 27 new decentralized power plants 60 new companies, 1,200 new jobs Ecotourism brought 30,000 visitors in 2007 Biomass heat and power facility

178. EAR - Energy Autarkic Region EAR is a proven concept which not only conserves valuable energy, but also re-injects a high proportion of investment into the local economy. It keeps money in the local area, creates new jobs, and greatly reduces emissions.

181. bioenergy.asu.edu Bioenergy

182. Biobutanol Biochar Biocrude Biodiesel Bioethanol Biogas Electricity Heat Hydrogen Bioplastics Anaerobic digestion Biogas collection Combustion Crush, pulp and purify Enzymatic digestion Fermentation Photobioreaction Liquid pyrolysis Depolymerization Thermal gasification Transesterification Algae Animal wastes Crops Crop wastes Food wastes Garbage Landfill gas Sawdust Seaweed Sewage sludge Switchgrass Used oils Wood wastes Woody plants Result Method Bioenergy

186. This is a great opportunity

187. to build a sustainable future

188. Solutions for Individuals Champions Communities Businesses Farmers Transport Energy Companies Governments Developing Nations Global

189. You are the midwives of the Solar Revolution

190. Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com www.theclimatechallenge.ca