1. eldorado
Predicting where to open your next business
in a city
Wheretobiz
Where do you want to open your new business?
Hongsup Shin

2. Technology
Marketing
Leadership
Investment
Innovation
Control
Team

5. Capturing the
flow of artists
#art
(Flickr)
Demographics
(US census)
600+ ZIP code areas in
10 major US cities
from 2011 to 2013
Random
forest
Classifier
train: 60% areas
test: 40% areas
Growth rate*
by type and ZIP code
(US census)
Growth rate map
(2014)
wheretobiz.com
Predicting business
growth rate
growth rate =
Destablishments
establishments in previous year
Δ
*

6. Growthratein2013
Growth rate in 2012
(industry)

7. Average business
growth rate

8. Feature importance rank (#art growth rate)

9. Feature importance rank (#art growth rate)
early 20’s, 30’s
Bachelor’s, Arts
early 20’s, Arts

10. Feature importance rank (#art growth rate)
National Endowment For the Arts White Paper (2010)

11. VS
• ZIP code level data
• Business establishments
• 20 different industry types
• Growth rate prediction
Wheretobiz
• Country level data
• Gross national product
• Art industry only
• Historical report

12. Predicted label
Agriculture/Fishing
Truelabel
Finance
Real EstateLaw/Science/Ads
Management Media/Publishing
1 2 3 4
4321

13. #create #imitate
Hongsup Shin
Neuroscience PhD
Probability
s
Memory
x
p(x,y,L) µ
p xL
|qL( )p yL
|jL
=qL
+ D( )dqL
dDòò
p xL
|qL( )p yL
|jL
=qL( )ò
.

14. F1 score

15. Media/Publishing
Number of features
F1score

17. Real Estate

18. Education