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On the Future of Universities
   The Challenge And the Response




        Ismail Serageldin
        IAU – 28 November 2012
Outline
• Our Changing World

• The Seven Pillars of the
  Knowledge revolution

• The University Of the Future

• Envoi
Our Changing World
Add Social Connectivity
     Dimension
And
MORE CHANGE
 will come…
Beyond Tomorrow
The Seven Pillars Of
  The Knowledge
    Revolution
Intertwined!
1.
Parsing, Life &
 Organization
Knowledge Was Parsed in
   Individual Volumes
Documents:
       “Alive” or “Dead”?
• Yesterday: Document is “Dead”, i.e.
  when completed and published it
  stays that way until a new edition is
  issued
• Today: Document is “Alive” it is on
  the web, and it is constantly being
  updated. The version I consulted
  yesterday is not the same as the one I
  consult today
Dead Or Alive?
Web pages: the new parsing
The Semantic Web
Conventional Organization Of
         Knowledge (DDC)
• 000 – Computer science, information & general
  works
• 100 – Philosophy and psychology
• 200 – Religion
• 300 – Social sciences
• 400 – Language
• 500 – Science (including mathematics)
• 600 – Technology/Applied Science
• 700 – Arts and recreation
• 800 – Literature
• 900 – History, geography, and biography
New Map Of Knowledge (NYT)




               Source: NYT Knowledge map,
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2009/03/13/science/16vis
                      ual-popup.html
Social Sciences Links
Natural Sciences Links
Beyond The Conventional
Keyboard and Screen as interface
Augmented Reality
Providing
information
 when and
 where it is
  needed
A Living, Vibrant, Changing
Interconnected Knowledge Base
2.
Image & Text
Increasingly we rely on image rather
than text to comprehend information
        and new knowledge
Surgery before and after
3.
Humans & Machines
With the exception of
   pure math and philosophy…




In every other field of knowledge…
Humans will need machines to
access, retrieve, manipulate and
 add to the body of knowledge
Expanding our brain’s reach --
Beyond Anything Our Parents Could imagine!
4.
Complexity & Chaos
We are surrounded by amazing
         complexity
The Emerging Science of
 Complexity and Chaos
Classical Algebra & Geometry could
handle the pyramids but not the clouds
Self-similarity
Multiple Outcomes
Nested
Hierarchies
Fractals
Incredible Applications
Growth of Plants
Patterns of Flowering
Patterns of Cracking in Drying
             Earth
DNA Structure
The Paths of Lightening Bolts
Snowflake Formation
Turbulence
Patterns of Coastal Erosion
Organic Constructs
Neural
Networks
Chaos, Complexity and Fractals are just the beginning…
5.
Computation &
  Research
From Data Collections To
  Connections Between
      Collections
From data collections …

• In the past science
  focused on building
  ordered data collections
…to data connections
What will this lead to?
New Computer Architecture
New Pathways
Neural Nets
Opening new avenues for the
      search for A.I.
6.
Convergence &
Transformation
Convergence and Transformative
          Research
• Bio / Info / Nano Technology

• Transformative research (capable of
  changing the paradigm in some
  fields and domains) e.g. Synthetic
  biology.
The Converging New Sciences

     Bio
     Info
     Nano
     Technologies
7.
Pluri-Disciplinarity &
        Policy
Three major approaches to
      pluri-disciplinarity
• At present there are three major
  ways of organizing joint work
  between the disciplines:

    • Inter-disciplinary,
    • Multi-disciplinary; and
    • Trans-disciplinary.
So…
Seven pillars of the new
              knowledge
•   Parsing, Life & Organization
•   Image & Text
•   Humans & Machines
•   Complexity & Chaos
•   Computation & Research
•   Convergence & Transformation
•   Pluri-Disciplinarity & Policy
But…
The cultural mission of the pursuit
 of knowledge will continue, and it
  will require that we rethink the
institutions that serve that mission
The Institutions of Knowledge

• Education (from K to post docs)

• Research (universities, public and
  private labs)

• Supporting institutions (libraries,
  archives', museums)
The University Of The
       Future
1.

Part Of A Reinvented Education
            System
Quality Not Just Quantity
Quantity:
                        Added-variable Plots of Growth and Education
                        2

                                                     SGP

                                                                       CYP
                                               MAR                   ZAF
                                                            USA
                        1




                                        TUN               TWN BRA
   Conditional growth




                                                                HKG
                                                      IDN
                                              PRT     THA
                                                               KOR        NOR
                                                                        IRL PER
                                                 CHE DNK
                                                ITA                           CHL
                                             ISL         CAN●
                        0




                                                        MEX AUS GRC
                                                          ESP                           ISR
                                        EGY           SWE
                                           TUR ●●●● NLD GBR
                                                       BEL     AUT
                                                                                                JPN
                                                                                                         ROM
                                            CHN                                  PHL
                                                  NZL
                                  IRN     IND
                                                      URYGHA
                                                           COL
                        -1




                                                               ZWE


                                                    JOR
                                                                 Conditional years of education
                        -2




                             -4         -2                   0                      2                      4
Coef=0.264058, se=.7839797, t=.34                                                              ● Other countries
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4122, February 2007. “The Role of Education Quality in Economic
Growth”.
Quality:
                        Added-variable Plots of Growth and Education
                        4

                                                                                                              SGP
                                                                                                                TWN
                        2




                                                                                                   HKG KOR
   Conditional growth




                                                                                               ●
                                                                                               ●
                                                                                CYP                       CHN
                                                                                TUN      ●        MYS
                                                                             USA      ●●       FIN
                                                                              IDN ● ●
                                                                                   ●● ●● ●● FRA
                                                                                   ● ● ● ● IND
                                                          MAR               NOR              IRN
                        0




                                                        BRA                      ●●●●
                                                                    ●                 ●
                                                                        ●
                                                      CHN
                                                       ARG                    ●
                                                                              ●
                                     ZAF                      ROM                     JOR
                                                                        ZWE
                                                             GHA
                        -2




                                    PER         PHL



                                                                                          Conditional test score
                        -4




                             -1.5          -1                -0.5                     0            0.5              1
Coef=1.9804387, se=.21707105, t=9.12                                                                     ● Other countries
Source: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4122, February 2007. “The Role of Education Quality in Economic
Growth”.
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
Enormous amount of information…
     Endless new offerings
Electronic Books are the
future… Using the iTunes
    business model…
Global Digitization
October 2010:
                                    First Bookless Library




•   Engineering School, University of Texas, San Antonio, has 425,000 books on
    line and 18,000 electronic Journals.
•   Source: Publié le 7 Octobre 2010 sur :http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/10/07/from-e-books-to-no-
    books/?sms_ss=facebook&at_xt=4cc203f7a4b576bc%2C0
The Digital Future Is Unstoppable
But the upside is a librarian’s dream
            come true…
But many of us hope that books
     are still here to stay
However…
On the appearance of electronic vs. printed books




       -- How can he read that way?
On the appearance of the Codex vs. scrolls




     -- How can he read that way?
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
Instruction
Guided learning
A Lot of self learning!
##   99
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
Participants in education process

•   Parents
•   Teachers
•   Students
•   Peer groups (Real & Virtual)
•   Community (Real & Virtual)
•   Media, especially the Internet
Flipped
                         Instruction




Teaching will be seen
 on video on student
   own time and face
 time will be used for
joint problem solving
    and mentoring
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
Schools and universities are needed
fro socialization if not for instruction
Universities Manage
  Five Key Transitions

• Continuing Study

• Healthy Lifestyle Choices

• Forming Households

• Becoming Active Citizens

• Entering The Labor Force
Reinventing Education

• Content

• Method

• Participants

• Organizational setting
2.

A Changed Higher Education
        Landscape
Many institutions as modular life-
 long learning becomes a reality
Massive On-Line Open Courses
       (MOOCs)
Sebastian
       Thrun and
     UDACITY


                        Salman Khan
            of the   Khan Academy




Daphne Koller and Andrew Ng of Stanford
      founders of Coursera-
           (Source: NYT 12 July 2012)
edX
(Supported by the Gates Foundation)
3.

The University & Society
Science and Technology
A Society Moving Ever Faster




       ##             113
A community of scholars … but linked to the community…
            A lifelong presence in our lives
Obligations of Universities, as Social
              Institutions, :


• To promote through teaching and
  research the principles of freedom
  and justice, of human dignity and
  solidarity
                  -- IAU


              ##                 115
4.

The University & The
     Economy
##   117
TECHNOLOGY




 ##          118
S&T-driven Development Nodes

• Intellectual Clusters

• Industrial Clusters

• Regional Revitalization




              ##            119
5.

The Core Functions Of The
       University
Traditional
Functions of the University

• Truth

• Socialization / values

• Certification
       ##              121
Linear Model of Education at Tertiary
          level obsolete


       •   12 years School
       •   4 years university
       •   Degree / certification
       •   40 years of practice
       •   Retirement

               ##                   122
##   123
We must change the certification function,
as Continuing Lifelong Education will be
               required




              ##               124
New
Functions of the University

• Truth

• Socialization / values

• Nodes of networks of
  learning and experience
      ##                125
The
Universities




       ##      126
Assisting
                           Industry…




By Scientific Excellence
            ##             127
Providing
           continuing
            education


Forming
  new                   Research
students




   ##                              128
The University of the Future
• Fundamental foundation for new
  students
• Much more self learning and guided
  learning
• Modular teaching for life long
  education
• Many more offerings


             ##               129
6.

Curricula For Tomorrow
The curriculum for tomorrow
• Foundation – broad, values &liberal
  arts + scientific literacy and problem
  solving
• Specialization fields – but + learning
  pluridisciplinarity
• Lots & lots of electives and ..
• Continuing lifelong education with
  myriad modular offerings in everything
  from hobbies to marketable skills
7.

University Governance in the
        21st Century
University Governance
• The juridical status of the university
• The clarity of its mission
• Its relationship with other social actors
• The (business) model it employs
• The decision making structure of the
  university
• Transparency, responsibility and
  accountability


                ##                   133
##   134
Defining a role for each…

   •   Students
   •   Faculty
   •   Administration
   •   Community
   •   Parents
   •   Government
   •   Financiers
   •   Industry
         ##             135
Autonomy :
The single most important attribute of the university



 • Autonomy for whom?
 • Autonomy from what?




                ##                       136
8.

What Business Model For
      The Future?
Copying the manufacturing Business
                  Model:
•   Future employers as customers
•   Student skills as products
•   Teachers as workers
•   Administration as managers


              Wrong Model!

          Dangerous! Do Not Use!
              ##               138
Copying the manufacturing Business
                  Model:
•   Future employers as customers
•   Student skills as products
•   Teachers as workers
•   Administration as managers


              Wrong Model!

          Dangerous! Do Not Use!
              ##               139
Copying the manufacturing Business
                  Model:
•   Future employers as customers
•   Student skills as products
•   Teachers as workers
•   Administration as managers


              Wrong Model!

          Dangerous! Do Not Use!
              ##               140
Fundamental principles for which the
         University must stand
• The right to pursue knowledge for its
  own sake
• To follow wherever the search for truth
  may lead
• Tolerance of divergent opinions
• Freedom from political interference

                   -- IAU

              ##                141
9.

Values and Modernization
Values
Community and Caring …..   Critical Thinking
Values of science




  ##            144
Values of science

• Truth




    ##          145
Values of science

• Truth
• Honor




   ##           146
Values of science

• Truth
• Honor
• Creativity and
  imagination




    ##             147
Values of science

•   Truth
•   Honor
•   Creativity and imagination
•   Constructive
    subversiveness



      ##                148
Values of science

• Truth
• Honor
• Creativity and imagination
• Constructive
  subversiveness
• Tolerance of engagement

      ##             149
Values of science

• Truth
• Honor
• Creativity and imagination
• Constructive
  subversiveness
• Tolerance of engagement
• Arbitration of disputes


      ##               150
Values of science

• Truth
• Honor
• Creativity and imagination
• Constructive
  subversiveness
• Tolerance of engagement
• Arbitration of disputes


      ##               151
10.

Keep Changing Plans As The
      World Changes
Change is happening with incredible
              speed
Even if you choose to be a
“niche” or “boutique” institution,
 you will have to change the way
    in which you present your
             services
Envoi
The implications of this knowledge
     revolution are immense
It Is the Dawn of A new Age!
It Is the Dawn of A new Age!
       Let’s Embrace it!
The Universities of Tomorrow…




        ##             159
The Universities of Tomorrow…

…are being invented in our minds
             today!




          ##             160
Dare to dream!

      Be bold!




 ##              161
Thank You
##   167
The images used in this
  presentation are strictly for the
    educational purpose of this
  lecture. Any use by anyone for
any other purpose should be after
 consulting the copyright owners
         of these pictures
##   169

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Plenary I - I. Seralgedin