Assessment of renewable energy in nation-wide power grid in Japan by optimal power generation mix model

Resilience Engineering Research Center
Assessment of renewable energy in nation-wide power grid in Japan
by optimal power generation mix model
Ryoichi Komiyama, Yasumasa Fujii
The University of Tokyo
68TH SEMI-ANNUAL ETSAP MEETING, CMA, MINES ParisTech, Sophia Antipolis, France
October 22, 2015

Resilience Engineering Research Center 2
• Optimal Power Generation Mix Model
• Time Resolution
Outline

FIT system has accelerated the installation of renewable, particularly solar PV.
Surcharge imposed on electricity rate has been increasing.
Surcharge [yen/kWh]: (2014) 0.75 yen/kWh, (2015) 1.58 yen/kWh
Total Surcharge [yen/year]: (2014) 0.65 tril.yen, (2015) 1.8 tril.yen
Installed PV capacity
(Source) METI(Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)
Renewable Energy in Japan
(1$=120 yen)
3
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
[GW]
FIT implementation (July 2012)
PV: 25GW

Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
【Permanent Shutdown】
Tokai:The Japan Atomic Power Company 1998.3.31
Hamaoka No1,No2:Chubu Electric Power Company 2009.1.30
Fukushima Daiichi No1,No2,No3,No4:Tokyo electric power company 2011.3.31
4321
(Source) FEPC(Federation of Electric Power
Companies Japan), IEEJ
Nuclear has been very important power source in Japan, and all nuclear plants
stranded for regulatory inspection after the Fukushima. At last, on August 11,
2015, Sendai nuclear power reactor in Kyushu Electric Power Company restarted
its operation, which is the first case of the restart since 2013.
4
Hamaoka, Chubu Electric Power Company
11
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Tokyo Electric Power Company
Shika, Hokuriku Electric Power Company
Tsuruga, The Japan Atomic Power Company
Mihama, Kansai Electric Power Company
Ohi, Kansai Electric Power Company
Genkai, Kyushu Electric Power Company
Sendai, Kyushu Electric Power Company
Output
100MW and more1000MW and less500MW and less
Under construction
In operation
68.15562Total
16.5529Planning
2.7563Under construction
48.84750In operation
Total output (GW)Units
68.15562Total
16.5529Planning
2.7563Under construction
48.84750In operation
Total output (GW)Units
11 22 11 22 33
33 44 55
22 33 4411
6655
3311 22
11 22
11
22 33 4411 55 66 77
2211
2211
3311 22
22 33 4411
Takamaha, Kansai Electric Power Company
33 4411 22
Shimane, Chugoku Electric Power Company
11 22 33
11 22 33 44
33
Higashidori, Tohoku Electric Power Company
Higashidori, Tokyo Electric Power Company
Tomari, Hokkaido Electric Power Company Ohma, Japan Power
Development Company
Onagawa, Tohoku Electric Power Company
Fukushima Daiichi, Tokyo Electric Power Company
TokaiDaini, The Japan Atomic Power Company
Ikata, Shikoku Electric Power Company
Fukushima Daini, Tokyo Electric Power Company

Long-term energy outlook to 2030 of Japan was published in July 2015 by
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI).
The most important agenda consists in the maximization of the fraction of
renewable energy (22～24%) after the Fukushima nuclear accident.
Outlook of Power Generation Mix
(Source) METI(Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry)
Target of Optimal Power Generation Mix in 2030
5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
10 year average before
Fukushima
2030
[%]
Oil 12%
Coal 24%
LNG27%
Nucear 27%
Renewable
11%
Oil 3%
Coal26%
LNG27%
Nuclear
20～22%
Renewable
22～24%
Hydro
8.8～9.2%
PV
7.0%
Wind 1.7%
Geothermal
1.0％
～1.1%Biomass
3.7～4.6%

Modeling Overview
6
After the Fukushima, a lot of attention has been concentrated on renewable
energy as alternative power source in Japan.
This presentation discusses optimal power generation mix (OPGM) for
Japan with large-scale integration of renewable energy sources,
and evaluate following item to provide policy maker with relevant insights
• Optimal power dispatch
• Additionally installed generators or batteries
• Additionally installed capacity of transmission lines
• Temporal resolution (2 hour ? 1 hour ? 30 min ? 10 min ?)
Method
An energy model is developed to understand possible massive RES integration.
⇒ OPGM Model (Computer-based numerical simulation tool)

Power System in Japan
(As of March 31, 2009)
• The ten privately-owned regional electric power companies in Japan are responsible for providing local operations from
power generation to distribution and supplying electricity to their respective service areas.
• In addition, the ten electric power companies cooperate with each other to ensure a stable supply to customers
nationwide.
• For example, the electric power companies work together to exchange or provide electricity in order to cope with
emergency situations resulting from accidents, breakdowns, or summer peak demand.
• However, in April 2016 , the whole retail power market will be completely deregulated, and power sale competition will be
encouraged.
Total: 230GW
System peak load : 178,995MW
Electricity sales: 888,935GWh
FCF: Frequency Converter Facilities
:Total cap. 1.1GW

Overview:
Optimal Power Generation Mix (OPGM) Model in Japan
Geographical Resolution:
• whole region of Japan
• 135 nodes, 166 transmission lines
Power Line Network of OPGM model in Japan
Eastern Japan (50Hz)Western Japan (60Hz)
南早来
西当別
道北1道北2道北3
北新得
西双葉
函館/大野
G
G
東通
上北
秋田岩手
宮城
G
女川
G
三
陸
海
岸
新庄
西仙台
仙台
宮城中央
G
相馬共同
新潟
G
南相馬
福島第一
GG
福島第二
広野
南いわき
新いわき
風力接続線1
広
野
火
力
線
富
岡
線
川
内
線
相
馬
双
葉
幹
線
常
磐
幹
線
仙
台
幹
線
青
葉
幹
線
北
上
幹
線
十
和
田
幹
線
む
つ
幹
線
相
福
幹
線
朝
日
幹
線
山
形
幹
線
陸
羽
幹
線
松
島
幹
線
牡
鹿
幹
線
奥
羽
幹
線
岩手幹線
北青幹線/北奥幹線
大潟幹線
道
南
幹
線
道
央
西
幹
線
道
央
北
幹
線
道
央
東
幹
線
北
本
連
系
線
風力接続線5
襟裳岬
風
力
接
続
線
4
狩
勝
幹
線
飯
豊
幹
線
五
頭
幹
線
鳴
瀬
幹
線
秋盛幹線G
津軽半島
G G
道
央
南
幹
線
G
西野
G風力接続線2風力接続線3
柏崎刈羽
新新潟幹線鉄塔
新榛名/西群馬
G
G
G
東群馬
G
G
G
G
G G
G
新茂木
新栃木/新今市
新新田
新所沢
新古河/新筑波
G
那珂
ひたちなか
G
G
新野田
新京葉
新豊洲
新佐原
岩槻
品川火力
G G
G
新富士
東山梨
横須賀
新秦野
新多摩
横浜火力
新秩父新信濃
今市下郷
G
塩原
房総
新木更津
袖ヶ浦富津
房
総
線
新袖ヶ浦線
新袖ヶ浦線
福
島
幹
線
福島幹線新
古
河
線
新
佐
原
線
福
島
東
幹
線
新
茂
木
線
新
秩
父
線
新
栃
木
線新岡部線
新新田線
新
多
摩
線
新
新
潟
幹
線
新
榛
名
線下郷線156鉄塔
下
郷
線
今
市
線
新
秦
野
線
新
い
わ
き
線
新
京
葉
線
新
京
葉
線
印旛線
西
群
馬
幹
線
西
群
馬
幹
線
塩
原
線
南
新
潟
幹
線
新
坂
戸
線
東群馬幹線
南いわき幹線
新
赤
城
線
那
珂
線
阿
武
隈
線
新
豊
洲
線
東
京
西
線
品
川
火
力
系
品
川
火
力
系
東
京
南
線
君津線
北
千
葉
線
千葉
北
千
葉
線
富津火力線
接
続
線
下
郷
線
佐久間FC
新信濃FC
柏崎刈羽(原)
奥清津(揚)
奥清津第二(揚)
新高瀬川(揚)
水殿(揚) 安雲(揚)
玉原(水)
葛野川(揚)
神流川(揚)
横浜(火) 川崎(火)
南横浜(火) 磯子(火)
横須賀(火)
今市(揚)
塩原(揚)
下郷(揚)
沼原(揚)
千葉(火)
鹿島(火)
鹿島共同(火)
G五井(火)
姉崎(火)
富津(火)袖ヶ浦(火)
君津共同(火)
品川(火) 大井(火)
東扇島(火)
勿来(火)
常陸那珂(火)
東海第二(原)
広野(火) 福島第二(原)
福島第一(原)
新地(火)
新潟(火)
東新潟(火)
仙台(火)
新仙台(火)
酒田共同(火)
女川(原)
秋田(火)
能代(火)
東通(原)
八戸(火)
知内(火)
泊(原)
伊達(火)
苫小牧(火) 音別(火)
苫東厚真(火)
苫小牧共同(火)砂川(火)
奈井江(火)
G
双
葉
線
G
原町(火)
G
東清水FC
MINAMIHAYAKITA
NISHITOBETSU
NORTH
HOKKAIDO1
NORTH
HOKKAIDO3
KITASHINTOKU
NISHI
FUTABA
HAKODATE
/ONO G
G
HIGASHIDORI
KITAKAMI
AKITA IWATE
MIYAGI
G
ONAGAWA
G
SHINJYO
NISHISENDAI
SENDAI
MIYAGI
CHUO
G
SOMA
KYODO
NIGATA
G
MINAMISOMA
FUKUSHIMA
DAIICHI
GG
FUKUSHIMA
DAINI
HIRONO
MINAMIIWAKI
SHINIWAKI
Wind connection 1
Iwate
main line
Wind connection 5
ERIMOMISAKI
G
TSUGARU
Peninsula
G G
G
NISHINO
GWind connection 2Wind connection 3
KASHIWASAKI
KARIWA
SHIN
NIGATA
Tower
SHINHARUNA
/NISHIGUNMA
G
G
G
HIGASHI
GUNMAN
G
G
G
G
G G
G
SHINMOGI
SHINTOCHIGI/SHINIMAICHI
SHIN
SHINDEN
SHIN
TOKOROZAWA
SHINFURUKAWA
/SHINTSUKUBA
G
NAKA
HITACHINAKA
G
G
SHINNODA
SHINKEIYO
SHINTOYOSU
SHIN
SAHARA
IWASTUKI
SHINAGAWA
Thermal
G G
GSHINFUJI
HIGASHI
YAMANASHI
YOKOSUKA
SHIN
HADANO
SHINTAMA
YOKOHAMA
Thermal
SHIN
CHICHIBU
SHINSHINANO
IMAICHI SHIMOGO
G
SHIOBARA
BOSO
SHIN
KISARAZU
SODEGAURA FUTTSU
Shinsodegaura line
Shinsodegaura line
Fukushima main line
shinokabe line
shinshinden line
SHIMOGO Line
156 Tower
Higashigunma
main line
Minamiiwaki
CHIBA
Futtsu thermal
lineSakuma FC
Shinshinano FC
kasiwasakikariwa(N)
okukiyotsu(P)
okukiyotsudaini(P)
shintakasegawa(P)
midono(P)
akumo(P)
tanbara (H)
kazunogawa(P)
kannagawa(P)
yokohama(T) kawasaki(T)
minamiyokohama(T) isogo(T)
yokosuka(T)
imaichi(P) siobara(P)
simogo(P)
numappara(P)
chiba(T)
kashima(T)
kashimakyodo(T)
Ggoi(T)
anesaki(T)
futtsu(T)sodegaura(T)
kimitsukyodo(T)
shinagawa(T) Oi(T)
higashiogishima(T)
nakoso(T)
hitachinaka(T)
tokaidaini(N)
hirono(T) Fukushimadaini(N)
fukushimadaiichi(N)
shinchi(T)
nigata(T)
higashinigata(T)
sendai(T)
shinsendai
(T)
sakatakyodo(T)
onagawa(N)
akita(T)
noshiro(T)
higashidori(N)
hachinohe(T)
shiriuchi(T)
tomari(N)
date(T)
tomakomai(T)
onbetsu(T)
tomatoatsuma(T)
tomakomaikyodo(T)
sunagawa(T)
naie(T)
G
G
haramachi(T)
G
Higashishimizu FC
NORTH
HOKKAIDO2
SANRIKU Coast
Minaminiigatamainline
Shinniigatamainline
NishigunmamainlineNishigunmamainline
ShinharunalineShitamalineShinhadanoline
Tokyonishiline
Shinchichibuline
Tokyominami
line
Shinagawathermal
system
Shinagawathermal
system
Shintoyosuline
ShinkeiyolineShinkeiyoline
Shinfurukawa
line
Shintochigi
line
Shimogo
line
Shimogo
line
Imaichi
line
Shiobara
line
Abunaka
line
Naka
line
Shinmogi
line
Shinsaharaline
Fukushimamainline
Shiniwakiline
Fukushimahigashimainline
Bosoline
KitachibalineKitachibaline
Yamagata
mainline
Oumainline
Hirono
thermalline
Tomiokaline
Asahimainline
Jobanmainline
Aoba
mainline
Sendaimainline
Matsushima
mainline
Shinsakadoline
Shinakagiline
Inba line
Kimitsu line
Karikachi
mainline
Wind
connection4
Mutsu
mainline
NorthCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
WestCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
EastCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
SouthCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
South
Hokkaido
mainline
Kitahoninterconnectionline
Riku
mainline
Kitakami
mainline
Oshika
mainline
Naruse
mainline
Hokusei/hokuo/Ogata
main line
Hokusei/hokuo/Ogata
main line
Akimori
main line
Towada
mainline
SomaFutabamainline
Futaba
line
Kawauchi
line
Gozumainline
Idemainline
Sofuku
mainline
G
G
G
G
G
G G
G
GGG
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
MINAMI
KYUSYU
OMARUGAWA
TAKANO
CHUO OITA
TOYOMAE
NISHI
KYUSYU
KITA
KYUSYU
SHIN
YAMAGUCHI
HIGASHI
YAMAGUCHI
SHINNISHI
HIROSHIMA
SHIN
HIROSHIMA
SHIN
OKAYAMA
HIGASHI
OKAYAMA
HIROSHIMA
SHINKURASIKI
SANUKI
KAWAUCHI ANAN
OSAKA
Bay
NOSEYAMASAKINISHIHARI
HINO
NISHI
SHIMANE
MISUMI
KITAMATSUE
SHIN
TOTTORI CHIZU
HIGASHIOMI
MINAMIKYOTO
SEKI
KUROBE
RYONANKEIHOKUINAGAWAHOKUSETSU
OKUTATARAGI
MAIDURU OOI
MIHAMA
SHINFUKUI ECHIZENKITASYO
KAGA JOHANA TOYAMA
MINAMI
FUKUMITSU SHINNOTO SHIGA
GIFU
MIE
HIGASHI
YAMATO
SEIBU GIHOKU
KAWAGOE
HOKUBU
NAGANO
AICHI
JOETSU
SHINANO
TOYONE
TOBU
CHITA
HEKINAN
ATSUMI
SHIZUOKA
TOEI
HAMAOKA
G
UBE
G
TOKUYAMA
himejidaiichi(T)
himejidaini(T)
tanagawadaini(T)
aioi(T) akou(T)
nanko(T)
sakaiminato(T)
kainan(T) gobo(T)
shinonoda(T)
simonoseki(T)
G
misumi(T)
shimane(N)
matanogawa(P)
kisenyama(P)
okuyoshino (P)
ikehara(P)
ooi(N)
fukui(T)
tsuruga(T)
nanaota(T)
shiga(N)
other
hydro(H)
Gtoyama(T)
toyamashinko(T)
maiduru(T)
miyadu(T)
takahama(N)
okutataragi(P)
mihama(N)
tsuruga(N)
saijo(T)
ikata(N)
omorigawa(P)
hongawa(P)
ananaigawa(P) anan(T) tachibanawan(T)
sakaide(T) kagehira(P)
G
G
omarugawa(P)
sendai(T) sendai(N)
reihoku (T) taihei(P)
genkai(N)
matsuura(T)
karatsu(T)
ainoura(T)
matsushima(T)
tenzan(P)
shinkokura
(T)
karita(T)
simomatsu(T)
yanai(T)
iwakuni(T)
kaminoseki(N)
shinoita(T)
osaki(T) nabara(P)
mizushima(T)
shinnariwagawa(P)
yokkaichi(T)
kawagoe(T)
shinnagoya(T)
nishinagoya(T)
owasemita(T)
chita(T)
taketoyo(T)
chitadaini(T)
hekinan(T)
atsumi(T)
hamaoka(N)
Gbuzen(T)
G
takehara(T)
joetsu(T)
kurobe etc(P)
Gokawachi(P)
G
okumino(P)
nagano(P)
G
takanedaiichi(P)
mazegawadaiichi(P)
G
okuyahagidaiichi(P)
okuyahagidaini(P)
G
Echizen lineKitanosho line Chuo main line
Shinko/Shintoyama
main line
KagaFukumitsu line
Noetsu main line Noetsu main line
Shinshinano FC
Sakuma FC
Higashishimizu FC
Minamifukumitsu
interconnection
Aigi main line Toyone main line
Wakasa main line
Wakasa main lineTanba main lineToban lineShintottoriChizu
Chugokuhigashi
main line
Hino
main line
HinoShintottorichugokuchu
main lineChugokunishi main line
Shinyamaguchi
main line
Shinyamaguchi
main line
Shinnishihiroshima
main line
Shinhiroshima
main line
Shinokayama
main line
NishihariOkayama
line
Harimanishi
line
Harimachuo
line
Nose
line
Minamiomi
line
MieHigashiomi
line
Mie
connection line
Seibu
main line
Seibu
main line
Tobu
main line
Toei
main line
Sangi main line
Yamashirohigashiline
AnanKihoku DC main line
SeibuNagoyaline
Kitayamatoline
Chitathermalline
HigashiNagoyatobuline
Gifuconnectionline
Shizuokamainline
Toyoneconncetion
line
Minamishinano
mainline
Shizuoka
connectionline
Hamaokamainline
Kitakyusyu
mainline
Shinhiroshima
connectionline
Shinnishihiroshima
connectionline
Shinokayama
connectionline
Higashiokayama
connectionline
Higashiyamaguchi
connectionline
Nishishimane
mainline
Joetsuthermalline
Shinano
mainline
Omarugawa
mainline
YamasakiChizuline
Harimaline
Shinyamaguchi
connectionline
YamaguchiUbeline
Kanmon
Interconnectionline
Shikokutyuohigashi
mainline
Awamainline
Honshi
Interconnectionline
Misumi
thermalline
Shimanenuclearpower
mainline
Kitamatsue
mainline
Okutataragi
mainline
Tanba
mainline
Dainioi
mainline
Mihama
line
EchizenRyonanline
Kagamainline
TakaradukalineHimejiline
Nishikyotoline
Miborokita
mainline
Miborominami
mainline
HokubuchunolineNagano
mainline
Sunto
mainline
Shinmikawa
mainline
Mikawaline
NukatatobulineNukataKoutaline
8

Network Topology:
Node Distribution in Japanese Map

Network Topology:
Modelling of Power System in Eastern Japan (50 Hz)
10
MINAMIHAYAKITA
NISHITOBETSU
NORTH
HOKKAIDO1
NORTH
HOKKAIDO3
KITASHINTOKU
NISHI
FUTABA
HAKODATE
/ONO G
G
HIGASHIDORI
KITAKAMI
AKITA IWATE
MIYAGI
G
ONAGAWA
G
SHINJYO
NISHISENDAI
SENDAI
MIYAGI
CHUO
G
SOMA
KYODO
NIGATA
G
MINAMISOMA
FUKUSHIMA
DAIICHI
GG
FUKUSHIMA
DAINI
HIRONO
MINAMIIWAKI
SHINIWAKI
Wind connection 1
Iwate
main line
Wind connection 5
ERIMOMISAKI
G
TSUGARU
Peninsula
G G
G
NISHINO
GWind connection 2Wind connection 3
KASHIWASAKI
KARIWA
SHIN
NIGATA
Tower
SHINHARUNA
/NISHIGUNMA
G
G
G
HIGASHI
GUNMAN
G
G
G
G
G G
G
SHINMOGI
SHINTOCHIGI/SHINIMAICHI
SHIN
SHINDEN
SHIN
TOKOROZAWA
SHINFURUKAWA
/SHINTSUKUBA
G
NAKA
HITACHINAKA
G
G
SHINNODA
SHINKEIYO
SHINTOYOSU
SHIN
SAHARA
IWASTUKI
SHINAGAWA
Thermal
G G
GSHINFUJI
HIGASHI
YAMANASHI
YOKOSUKA
SHIN
HADANO
SHINTAMA
YOKOHAMA
Thermal
SHIN
CHICHIBU
SHINSHINANO
IMAICHI SHIMOGO
G
SHIOBARA
BOSO
SHIN
KISARAZU
SODEGAURA FUTTSU
Shinsodegaura line
Shinsodegaura line
Fukushima main line
shinokabe line
shinshinden line
SHIMOGO Line
156 Tower
Higashigunma
main line
Minamiiwaki
CHIBA
Futtsu thermal
lineSakuma FC
Shinshinano FC
kasiwasakikariwa(N)
okukiyotsu(P)
okukiyotsudaini(P)
shintakasegawa(P)
midono(P)
akumo(P)
tanbara (H)
kazunogawa(P)
kannagawa(P)
yokohama(T) kawasaki(T)
minamiyokohama(T) isogo(T)
yokosuka(T)
imaichi(P) siobara(P)
simogo(P)
numappara(P)
chiba(T)
kashima(T)
kashimakyodo(T)
Ggoi(T)
anesaki(T)
futtsu(T)sodegaura(T)
kimitsukyodo(T)
shinagawa(T) Oi(T)
higashiogishima(T)
nakoso(T)
hitachinaka(T)
tokaidaini(N)
hirono(T) Fukushimadaini(N)
fukushimadaiichi(N)
shinchi(T)
nigata(T)
higashinigata(T)
sendai(T)
shinsendai
(T)
sakatakyodo(T)
onagawa(N)
akita(T)
noshiro(T)
higashidori(N)
hachinohe(T)
shiriuchi(T)
tomari(N)
date(T)
tomakomai(T)
onbetsu(T)
tomatoatsuma(T)
tomakomaikyodo(T)
sunagawa(T)
naie(T)
G
G
haramachi(T)
G
Higashishimizu FC
NORTH
HOKKAIDO2
SANRIKU Coast
Minaminiigatamainline
Shinniigatamainline
NishigunmamainlineNishigunmamainline
ShinharunalineShitamalineShinhadanoline
Tokyonishiline
Shinchichibuline
Tokyominami
line
Shinagawathermal
system
Shinagawathermal
system
Shintoyosuline
ShinkeiyolineShinkeiyoline
Shinfurukawa
line
Shintochigi
line
Shimogo
line
Shimogo
line
Imaichi
line
Shiobara
line
Abunaka
line
Naka
line
Shinmogi
line
Shinsaharaline
Fukushimamainline
Shiniwakiline
Fukushimahigashimainline
Bosoline
KitachibalineKitachibaline
Yamagata
mainline
Oumainline
Hirono
thermalline
Tomiokaline
Asahimainline
Jobanmainline
Aoba
mainline
Sendaimainline
Matsushima
mainline
Shinsakadoline
Shinakagiline
Inba line
Kimitsu line
Karikachi
mainline
Wind
connection4
Mutsu
mainline
NorthCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
WestCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
EastCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
SouthCentral
Hokkaido
mainline
South
Hokkaido
mainline
Kitahoninterconnectionline
Riku
mainline
Kitakami
mainline
Oshika
mainline
Naruse
mainline
Hokusei/hokuo/Ogata
main line
Hokusei/hokuo/Ogata
main line
Akimori
main line
Towada
mainline
SomaFutabamainline
Futaba
line
Kawauchi
line
Gozumainline
Idemainline
Sofuku
mainline

Network Topology:
Modelling of Power System in Western Japan (60 Hz)
11
G
G
G
G
G
G G
G
GGG
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
G
MINAMI
KYUSYU
OMARUGAWA
TAKANO
CHUO OITA
TOYOMAE
NISHI
KYUSYU
KITA
KYUSYU
SHIN
YAMAGUCHI
HIGASHI
YAMAGUCHI
SHINNISHI
HIROSHIMA
SHIN
HIROSHIMA
SHIN
OKAYAMA
HIGASHI
OKAYAMA
HIROSHIMA
SHINKURASIKI
SANUKI
KAWAUCHI ANAN
OSAKA
Bay
NOSEYAMASAKINISHIHARI
HINO
NISHI
SHIMANE
MISUMI
KITAMATSUE
SHIN
TOTTORI CHIZU
HIGASHIOMI
MINAMIKYOTO
SEKI
KUROBE
RYONANKEIHOKUINAGAWAHOKUSETSU
OKUTATARAGI
MAIDURU OOI
MIHAMA
SHINFUKUI ECHIZENKITASYO
KAGA JOHANA TOYAMA
MINAMI
FUKUMITSU SHINNOTO SHIGA
GIFU
MIE
HIGASHI
YAMATO
SEIBU GIHOKU
KAWAGOE
HOKUBU
NAGANO
AICHI
JOETSU
SHINANO
TOYONE
TOBU
CHITA
HEKINAN
ATSUMI
SHIZUOKA
TOEI
HAMAOKA
G
UBE
G
TOKUYAMA
himejidaiichi(T)
himejidaini(T)
tanagawadaini(T)
aioi(T) akou(T)
nanko(T)
sakaiminato(T)
kainan(T) gobo(T)
shinonoda(T)
simonoseki(T)
G
misumi(T)
shimane(N)
matanogawa(P)
kisenyama(P)
okuyoshino (P)
ikehara(P)
ooi(N)
fukui(T)
tsuruga(T)
nanaota(T)
shiga(N)
other
hydro(H)
Gtoyama(T)
toyamashinko(T)
maiduru(T)
miyadu(T)
takahama(N)
okutataragi(P)
mihama(N)
tsuruga(N)
saijo(T)
ikata(N)
omorigawa(P)
hongawa(P)
ananaigawa(P) anan(T) tachibanawan(T)
sakaide(T) kagehira(P)
G
G
omarugawa(P)
sendai(T) sendai(N)
reihoku (T) taihei(P)
genkai(N)
matsuura(T)
karatsu(T)
ainoura(T)
matsushima(T)
tenzan(P)
shinkokura
(T)
karita(T)
simomatsu(T)
yanai(T)
iwakuni(T)
kaminoseki(N)
shinoita(T)
osaki(T) nabara(P)
mizushima(T)
shinnariwagawa(P)
yokkaichi(T)
kawagoe(T)
shinnagoya(T)
nishinagoya(T)
owasemita(T)
chita(T)
taketoyo(T)
chitadaini(T)
hekinan(T)
atsumi(T)
hamaoka(N)
Gbuzen(T)
G
takehara(T)
joetsu(T)
kurobe etc(P)
Gokawachi(P)
G
okumino(P)
nagano(P)
G
takanedaiichi(P)
mazegawadaiichi(P)
G
okuyahagidaiichi(P)
okuyahagidaini(P)
G
Echizen lineKitanosho line Chuo main line
Shinko/Shintoyama
main line
KagaFukumitsu line
Noetsu main line Noetsu main line
Shinshinano FC
Sakuma FC
Higashishimizu FC
Minamifukumitsu
interconnection
Aigi main line Toyone main line
Wakasa main line
Wakasa main lineTanba main lineToban lineShintottoriChizu
Chugokuhigashi
main line
Hino
main line
HinoShintottorichugokuchu
main lineChugokunishi main line
Shinyamaguchi
main line
Shinyamaguchi
main line
Shinnishihiroshima
main line
Shinhiroshima
main line
Shinokayama
main line
NishihariOkayama
line
Harimanishi
line
Harimachuo
line
Nose
line
Minamiomi
line
MieHigashiomi
line
Mie
connection line
Seibu
main line
Seibu
main line
Tobu
main line
Toei
main line
Sangi main line
Yamashirohigashiline
AnanKihoku DC main line
SeibuNagoyaline
Kitayamatoline
Chitathermalline
HigashiNagoyatobuline
Gifuconnectionline
Shizuokamainline
Toyoneconncetion
line
Minamishinano
mainline
Shizuoka
connectionline
Hamaokamainline
Kitakyusyu
mainline
Shinhiroshima
connectionline
Shinnishihiroshima
connectionline
Shinokayama
connectionline
Higashiokayama
connectionline
Higashiyamaguchi
connectionline
Nishishimane
mainline
Joetsuthermalline
Shinano
mainline
Omarugawa
mainline
YamasakiChizuline
Harimaline
Shinyamaguchi
connectionline
YamaguchiUbeline
Kanmon
Interconnectionline
Shikokutyuohigashi
mainline
Awamainline
Honshi
Interconnectionline
Misumi
thermalline
Shimanenuclearpower
mainline
Kitamatsue
mainline
Okutataragi
mainline
Tanba
mainline
Dainioi
mainline
Mihama
line
EchizenRyonanline
Kagamainline
TakaradukalineHimejiline
Nishikyotoline
Miborokita
mainline
Miborominami
mainline
HokubuchunolineNagano
mainline
Sunto
mainline
Shinmikawa
mainline
Mikawaline
NukatatobulineNukataKoutaline

Overview:
Optimal Power Generation Mix (OPGM) Model in Japan
Power Generation Facilities:
• 500 power generation facilities
(Coal, LNG-GCC, LNG-ST, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal, Biomass, Marine, PV, Wind)
• 245 storage facilities
(Pumped Storage, Sodium-sulfur Battery (Lower C-rate), Li-ion Battery (Higher C-rate))
Time Resolution:
• 10-min interval for 1 year
= 6 intervals/hour×24 hours/day×365 days = 52,560 time steps / year
Methodology:
• Linear programming (200 million constraints)
• Single-period optimization (cost minimization)
• It takes three days to obtain an optimal solution with CPLEX.
12

Modeling (LP Formulation)
13
Optimizes the set of endogenous variables which minimizes
the objective function under the given constraints
Objective Function
＝ Fixed Cost (power sources, storages, transmission lines)
＋ Fuel Cost (thermal, nuclear) ＋ Power Storage Cost*
Constraints
supply-demand balances, capacity constraints, power supply reserve constraints,
load following capability constraints, CO2 emission constraint, power transmission
capacity constraints, charge and discharge balance of power storage, C-rate
constraints, ……………….
* Power Storage Cost = Capacity Cost + Energy Cost + Cost of consumable parts

Wind Resource Map in Japan
Wind Resource
Wind Speed Wind Resource
Wind Speed
Onshore Offshore
Total Potential: 282.9 GW
Hokkaido : 139.6 GW (49%)
Tohoku : 72.6 GW (26%)
Kyushu : 20.9 GW (7.4%)
Total Potential: 1572.6 GW
Hokkaido : 403.0 GW (26%)
Tohoku : 224.8 GW (14%)
Kyushu : 454.6 GW (29%)
(Source) Ministry of Environment
14

Solar Radiation Map
15

Locations of AMeDAS
16
Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System
The system extends to about 1,300 places in Japanese various places, and measures
precipitation, wind direction, velocity of the wind, air temperature, durations of sunshine,
and depth of snow cover degree, by automatic operation in every 10 minutes.
Sunshine Wind

Modeling of PV and Wind Outputs
17
Example of PV output Example of wind output
PV and wind outputs are estimated from actual meteorological data in year-
2012, and are given at 10-min intervals for 1 year in each node
In the model, PV and wind outputs can be curtailed, if necessary.
(The model determines the optimal operation of PV & wind outputs among
direct grid integration, storage and curtailment)

Measured and Estimated Wind Power
18
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 10 20 30
[KW]
[m/s]
Performance curve
Performance curve
Vc=5, Vr=12.5, and Vf=25(m/s) in mega-watt class pinwheel (1
～3MW) in recent years.
Example (Lower right figure)
Ratings output 2000kW
Performance curve of pinwheel of Vc=3, Vr=12.5, and
Vf=25(m/s)

Parameter Setting (Example)
19
Type Nuclear Coal LNG GCC LNG ST Oil Biomass Hydro Geothermal PV Wind
Unit Construction Cost [$/kW] 2,790 2,720 1,640 1,640 2,690 3,500 7,320 5,100 4,000 1,900
Life Time [year] 40 40 40 40 40 40 60 20 17 17
Annual O&M Cost Rate 0.04 0.048 0.036 0.036 0.039 0.048 0.0178 0.01 0.01 0.02
Maximum Capacity [GW] ∞ ∞ ∞ ∞ 5.5 GW 10 GW
Minimum Capacity [GW] 0 0 0 0 0 2.2 GW
MaximumIncrease Rate of Output [1/hour] 0 0.31 0.82 0.82 1 0.31 0.05 0.05
MaximumDecrease Rate of Output [1/hour] 0 0.58 0.75 0.75 1 0.58 0.05 0.05
Efficiency 1 0.418 0.484 0.396 0.394 0.2
Own Consumption Rate 0.035 0.061 0.02 0.04 0.045 0.13
Fuel Cost [cent/specific unit] 1.67 8.367 51.985 51.985 70.197 12.25
Heat Content[kcal/specific unit] 860 6139 13043 13043 9126 3585
Carbon Content[kg-C/specific unit] 0 0.61752 0.7462 0.7462 0.78792 0
Seasonal Peak Availability 0.85 0.85 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.85
Annual Average Availability 0.85 0.783 0.833 0.8 0.8 0.783
Share of Daily Start and Stop 0 0 0.5 0.3 0.7 0
Minimum Output Level 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Specific Unit kWh kg kg kg l kg
32GW 23 GW 1.2 GW
6.7GW to
1,270 GW
Type Pumped Battery(NAS)
Unit kW Construction Cost [$/kW] 2,400 1,200
Life Time [year] 60 15
Annual O&M Cost Rate 0.01 0.01
Maximum Capacity [GW] ∞
Minimum Capacity [GW] 0
Unit kWh Construction Cost [$/kWh] 10 40
Life Time [year] 60 15
Unit Non durable Material Cost [$/kWh] 0 160
Life Cycle [times] ∞ 4,500
Cycle Efficiency 0.7 0.9
Self Discharge Loss [1/hour] 0.0001 0.001
Maximum kWh ratio to kW 6 ∞
Usage Rate 0.9 0.9
28 GW

(Third Strategic Energy Plan by METI, 2014)
RES Fraction: 21%
(Energy and environmental option, 2012)
RES Fraction: 30%
PV
Rooftop 33.5 GW
Utility-scale 19.5 GW
Rooftop 40.0 GW
Utility-scale 23.28 GW
Wind 10 GW 34.89 GW
Hydro
Conventional 11.78 GW
Small, medium 12.0 GW
Conventional 11.78 GW
Small, medium 12.0 GW
Geothermal 1.65 GW 3.12 GW
Biomass 3.61 GW 5.52 GW
Marine No 1.0 GW
Total 92.04 GW 131.60 GW
* Above capacity is allocated to each node, based on capacity certified by FIT and resource
potential estimated by Ministry of Environment Japan.
Assumptions of Renewable Power Generation (2030)

Assumption: RES Capacity in 2030
21
57%
11%
26%
2%4%
Case: RES 21%
PV Wind Hydro Geothermal Biomass
Generating Capacity
92.04GW
48%
27%
18%
2%
4%1%
Case: RES 30%
PV Wind Hydro
Geothermal Biomass Marine
Generating Capacity
131.6GW

Power Generation Mix in Japan (2030)
22
In the case of RES 30%, 15% of total wind output is observed to be curtailed.
110.7 110.3
11.6
21.6
31.7 32.2
158.5 154.1
219.9 209.9
36.1 26.3
302.5
256.0
22.3
70.1
51.0 63.0
-15.7
-15.0
10.7
10.3
12.6
0.9
-19.3 -21.2
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
[5-1] [5-2]
TWh Electricity Balances in the Period Loss
Suppressed PV
Suppressed Wind
Battery2(out)
Battery1(out)
Pumped(out)
Battery2(in)
Battery1(in)
Pumped(in)
PV
Wind
Oil
LNG GCC
LNG ST
Coal
Nuclear
Marine
Biomass
Geothermal
Hydro
RES21% RES30%

Results｜Installed Capacity
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
[5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2]
Hokkaido Tohoku Kanto Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Chugoku Kyushu
GW Generating Capacity
Battery2 Battery1 Pumped
PV Wind Oil
LNG GCC LNG ST Coal
Nuclear Marine Biomass
Geothermal Hydro
21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30%

24
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
[5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2] [5-1] [5-2]
TWh Electricity Balances in the Period
Loss Inter Change Suppressed PV
Suppressed Wind Battery2(out) Battery1(out)
Pumped(out) Battery2(in) Battery1(in)
Pumped(in) PV Wind
Oil LNG GCC LNG ST
Coal Nuclear Marine
Biomass Geothermal Hydro
21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30% 21% 30%
Results｜Power Generation

25
0.2 0.3
2.6
0.6
1.3
0.0 0.0
2.5
0.0
1.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
西野新京葉大阪湾阿南新倉敷
Newly Constructed LNG GCC
[5-1] [5-2]RES21% RES30%
Results｜Capacity Expansion
Nishino Shinkeiyo Osaka bay Anan Shinkurashiki

Results｜Capacity Factor of Wind and PV
26
36.5
24.2
20.1
22.1 21.7
28.3
29.7
20.1
29.3
25.4
23.6
20.2 20.1
22.1 22.1
28.5
29.9
23.4
28.7
22.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Hokkaido Tohoku Kanto Chubu Hokuriku Kansai Shikoku Chugoku Kyushu All Japan
% Wind Capacity Factor
[5-1]
[5-2]
9.6
10.0
11.7 12.0
10.3 10.6
11.0
10.4 10.6
11.1
8.5
9.8
11.8 12.1
10.3 10.6
11.0
10.4 10.0
10.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
% PV Capacity Factor
[5-1]
[5-2]
RES21% RES30%
RES21% RES30%

Wind & PV Suppression
27
For large-scale integration of wind & PV in Japan, those output curtailments are
required particularly in Hokkaido, Tohoku and Kyushu service area
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
40.3
15.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2.7
15.3
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
% Wind Suppression Rate
[5-1]
[5-2]RES21%
RES30%
Wind Suppression Rate40.3%
15.9%
2.7%
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kyushu
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.7
0.0
11.1
1.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6.0
1.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
%
PV Suppression Rate
[5-1]
[5-2]
PV Suppression Rate11.1%
1.3%
6.0%
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kyushu

Capacity Factor of Power Plants in Each Region
28
Capacity factor of ramp generator is observed to be decreased.
Large-scale RES integration affects capacity factor of base-load generators such as nuclear and coal
in Hokkaido and Tohoku regions.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
[5-1] [5-2]
%
Capacity Factor (Tohoku)
Nuclear
Coal
LNG GCC
Hydro
Oil
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
[5-1] [5-2]
%
Capacity Factor (Kanto)
Nuclear
Coal
LNG GCC
Hydro
Oil
LNG ST
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
[5-1] [5-2]
%
Capacity Factor (Hokkaido)
Nuclear
Coal
LNG GCC
Hydro
Oil
RES21%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
[5-1] [5-2]
%
Capacity Factor (Kyushu)
Nuclear
Coal
LNG GCC
Hydro
Oil
RES30% RES21% RES30%
RES21% RES30% RES21% RES30%
Hokkaido Tohoku
Kanto Kyushu
Nuclear
Coal
Coal
LNG GCC
LNG ST
LNG GCC

Power Grid Operation at RES 21% in July
29
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto (Tokyo)
Ramp operation
by coal-fired
PV output is
controlled by
pumped-hydro
Transport of
surplus RES
outputs to Kanto
(Tokyo) region
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
Loss Inter Change Suppressed PV Suppressed Wind Battery2(out) Battery1(out) Pumped(ont) Battery2(in)
Battery1(in) Pumped(in) PV Wind Oil LNG GCC LNG ST Coal
Kyushu
PV output is
controlled by
pumped-hydro

30
Massive RES
curtailment
RES integration
influences base-
load generator
Ramp operation
by coal-fired
Transport of
surplus RES
outputs to Kanto
(Tokyo) region
↓
Nationwide grid
operation is
necessary in RES
integration
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto (Tokyo)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
Transport of
surplus RES
outputs to
Chugoku region
Kyushu

-4
-2
0
2
4
6
GW
Nuclear Marine Biomass Geothermal Hydro Load
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
GW
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
GW
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
Power Grid Operation at RES 21% in Dec.
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto (Tokyo)
Kyushu
Wind output is
controlled by
pumped-hydro
Transport of
surplus RES
outputs to Kanto
(Tokyo) region
↓
Nationwide grid
operation is
necessary in RES
integration

-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
GW
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
GW
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
GW
Power Grid Operation at RES 30% in Dec.
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto (Tokyo)
Kyushu
Massive RES
curtailment
RES integration
influences base-
load generator
Transport of surplus
RES outputs to Kanto
(Tokyo) region
↓
Nationwide grid
operation is
necessary in RES
integration
PV output is controlled
by pumped-hydro and
power transport to
Chugoku

-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GW
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
GW
-5
0
5
10
15
GW
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GW
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
GW
Chubu
Hokuriku
Kansai
Shikoku
Chugoku
by pumped-hydro and
power transport to
Chugoku

-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GW
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
GW
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GW
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
GW
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
GW
Chubu
Hokuriku
Kansai
Shikoku
Chugoku
by pumped-hydro and
power transport to
Chugoku

Total System Cost & CO2 emissions
35
RES 30% causes the increase in total system cost derived from large scale RES
integration, although a certain amount of CO2 emissions is mitigated.
11671
11294
12244
136
89
80
0
40
80
120
160
11000
12000
13000
[4-1] [5-1] [5-2]
CarbonEmission[Mt-C]
SystemCost[G-Yen]
RES21% RES30%(Base Case)
System Cost
Carbon Emission

Results｜Regional System Costs and CO2 emissions
36
348
1172
4006
1870
352
1731
440
658
1096
395
1127
3483
1715
370
1633
444
775
1352
555
1259
3732
1815
396
1660
457
838
1533
0
1500
3000
4500
G-Yen System Cost
[4-1] [5-1] [5-2]
5.7
17.6
34.9
20.8
6.1
16.5
8.3
10.4
15.4
1.3
11.4
21.4
15.6
4.7
11.5
3.2
9.1
10.8
0.2
9.2
19.5
14.4
4.4
10.8
2.6
8.6 10.3
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
Mt-C Carbon Emission
[4-1] [5-1] [5-2]
Base Case RES21% RES30%
Base Case RES21% RES30%

Expansion of Power Transmission Line in
Eastern Japan (50Hz Grid)
37
南早来
西当別
道北1道北2道北3
北新得
西双葉
函館/大野
G
G
東通
上北
秋田岩手
宮城
G
女川
G
三
陸
海
岸
新庄
西仙台
仙台
宮城中央
G
相馬共同
新潟
G
南相馬
南いわき
風力接続線1
川
相
馬
双
葉
幹
線
常
磐
幹
線
仙
台
幹
線
青
葉
幹
線
北
上
幹
線
十
和
田
幹
線
む
つ
幹
線
相
福
幹
線
朝
日
幹
線
山
形
幹
線
陸
羽
幹
線
松
島
幹
線
牡
鹿
幹
線
奥
羽
幹
線
岩手幹線
北青幹線/北奥幹線
大潟幹線
道
南
幹
線
道
央
西
幹
線
道
央
北
幹
線
道
央
東
幹
線
北
本
連
系
線
風力接続線5
襟裳岬
風
力
接
続
線
4
狩
勝
幹
線
飯
豊
幹
線
五
頭
幹
線
鳴
瀬
幹
線
秋盛幹線G
津軽半島
G G
道
央
南
幹
線
G
西野
G風力接続線2風力接続線3
新茂木
G
那珂
ひたちなか
G
新佐原
塩原
福
島
幹
線
福島幹線
新
佐
原
線
福
島
東
幹
線
新
茂
木
線
新
い
わ
き
線
那
珂
線
阿
武
隈
線
塩原(揚)
大井(火)
勿来(火)
常陸那珂(火)
東海第二(原)
新地(火)
新潟(火)
東新潟(火)
仙台(火)
新仙台(火)
酒田共同(火)
女川(原)
秋田(火)
能代(火)
東通(原)
八戸(火)
知内(火)
泊(原)
伊達(火)
苫小牧(火) 音別(火)
苫東厚真(火)
苫小牧共同(火)砂川(火)
奈井江(火)
双
G
原町(火)
G
北本連系線
従来：60万kW
強化後：90万kWまたは240万kW
東北基幹系統：日本海ルートを新設
従来：上北⇔秋田200万kW
強化後：上北⇔秋田800万kW
秋田⇔南相馬230万kW
相馬双葉幹線：第二連系線を新設
従来：東北→東京500万kW
東京→東北150万kW
強化後：東北→東京1,000万kW
東京→東北300万kW
Pattern A Pattern B Pattern C Pattern D
Hokkaido-Tohoku +0.3 GW +0.3 GW +1.8 GW +1.8 GW
Tohoku-Kanto - Expansion (2 routes) - Expansion (2 routes)
Tohoku - New construction - New construction
(Source) compiled from “Research committee about master-plan for reinforcement of tie line”, METI
Hokkaido-Tohoku Line
Now: 0.6 GW
After Expansion: 0.9 GW or 2.4 GW
Tohoku Line (New Construction of Nihonkai Route)
Now: 2.0 GW (Kamikita⇔Akita)
After Expansion: 8.0 GW (Kamikita⇔Akita)
2.3 GW (Akita⇔Minami-Soma)
Tohoku-Kanto Line (Soma-Futaba Line)
Now: 5.0 GW (Tohoku → Tokyo)
1.5 GW (Tokyo → Tohoku)
After Expansion: 10.0 GW (Tohoku → Tokyo)
3.0 GW (Tokyo → Tohoku)

RES Suppression & Capacity Factor
38
Grid expansion provides the decline of RES suppression and the increase in
capacity factor of ramp generator
40.3
35.1 34.5
30.5
29.2
15.9
16.6
4.7
17.4
5.3
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7
15.3 14.1
10.5 13.1 9.3
0.0
15.0
30.0
45.0
[5-2] Pattern A Pattern B Pattern C Pattern D
% Wind Suppression Rate
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Total
Kyushu
11.1
10.9
12.1
9.3
10.4
1.3
1.4
0.1
1.6
0.2
6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
1.5
1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
% PV Suppression Rate
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Total
Kyushu
No Exp. No Exp.
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Wind Suppression Rate PV Suppression Rate
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
Capacity Factor (Hokkaido)
Geothermal
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
Marine
Coal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
Capacity Factor (Tohoku)
Geothermal
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
Marine
Coal
LNG GCC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
%
Capacity Factor (Kanto)
Geothermal
Biomass
Nuclear
Hydro
Marine
Coal
LNG ST
LNG GCC
No Exp. No Exp. No Exp.
Cap. Factor (Hokkaido) (Tohoku) (Kanto)

Cost-Benefit of Grid Expansion
39
Total Cost Reduction &
Payback Period of Expanded Grid
Pattern B shows the largest cost benefit for massive RES integration.
Partial grid expansion such as Pattern A and C provides the less cost benefit.
8.2
53.8
15.4
64.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Pattern A Pattern B Pattern C Pattern D
PayoutPeriod[years]
ReducedCost[G-Yen]
Payout Period
Reduced System Cost
+0.3 GW
Expansion &
New construction
Pattern B

Temporal Resolution and RES Output
Capacity Factor: Wind Capacity Factor: PV
Lower resolution tends to levelize the RES output

Results｜Power Dispatch in Hokkaido
(10 min)
(120 min)

Long-term Storage
（Battery1）
Shor-term Storage
（Battery2）
Sodium-Sulfur Battery Li-ion Battery
Unit Facility Cost 170$/kWh 600$/kWh
Lifetime (in calendar) 15 years 8 years
Max. Recharge Cycle 4500 cycles 6000 cycles
C-rate 0.14C 2C
Battery Installation
• In rougher resolution more than
30-min, battery installation sharply
decreases
• This trend is more significant in
short-term storage (Li-ion battery)
Results｜Batteries in RES 30%

Modelling of Renewable, Hydrogen and Battery
Wind and PV outputs are into grid, electrolyzer and suppression control (curtailment).
Electrolyzer system converts electricity from wind and PV into hydrogen, which is stored in
compressed hydrogen tank for later combustion in fuel cell or hydrogen gas turbine.
Modelling analysis is conducted in Hokkaido and Tohoku regions (7 GW, 17 GW).
PVWT
Grid
Electrolyzer Hydrogen Storage Tank
• Fuel Cell
• Hydrogen Gas Turbine
Electricity
Hydrogen
Suppression Control (Curtailment)
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electricity
Electricity
Nuclear, Thermal (coal,gas,oil), Hydro, Geothermal, Pumped-hydro
Electricity
Rechargeable Battery
- NaS (Low C-rate)
- Li-ion (High C-rate)
Electricity
(Source) Komiyama,R., Otsuki, T., Fujii,Y., Energy, Volume 81, 1 March 2015, Pages 537–555 (2015)
43

Power Gen. Dispatch (in January, Tohoku)
With VR Suppression
Without VR Suppression
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PowerGeneration[GW]
Suppressed Wind
Suppressed PV
Hydrogen(Grid)
Hydrogen(Wind)
Hydrogen(PV)
Hydrogen(in)
Li-ion(in)
NaS(in)
Pumped(in)
Li-ion(out)
NaS(out)
Pumped(out)
Hydrogen Gas Turbine
Fuel Cell
Wind
PV
Oil
LNG
LNG GCC
Coal
Nuclear
Geothermal
Hydro
Demand
Wind(Suppression)
Wind(H2)
Wind(Grid)
H2(Charge)
H2 Gas Turbine
NaS(Charge)
NaS(Discharge)
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
PowerGeneration[GW]
Suppressed Wind
Suppressed PV
Hydrogen(Grid)
Hydrogen(Wind)
Hydrogen(PV)
Hydrogen(in)
Li-ion(in)
NaS(in)
Pumped(in)
Li-ion(out)
NaS(out)
Pumped(out)
Hydrogen Gas Turbine
Fuel Cell
Wind
PV
Oil
LNG
LNG GCC
Coal
Nuclear
Geothermal
Hydro
Demand
Wind(H2)
Wind(Grid)
H2(Charge)
H2 Gas Turbine
NaS(Charge)
NaS(Discharge)
(Note) Cost of Electrolyzer and Hydrogen Storage System: -90%, CO2: -90%
Jan.1 Jan.31
Jan.1 Jan.31
44

Annual SOC (State of Charge) in Energy Storage Facility
45
From January to May when wind output intensity is higher and those sufficient outputs are available, a lot of
hydrogen is produced by those surplus outputs and a large amount of hydrogen energy is stored in a hydrogen
storage tank in a monthly or seasonal cycle.
Since a storage loss of hydrogen in the compressed tank is very low, the developed energy model selects a long-
term hydrogen storage of surplus VR output as an optimal solution under strict CO2 regulation.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
31-Dec
StoredElectricity[GWh]
Pumped
NaS
Li-ion
Hydrogen
Hydrogen storage is a suitable option for
storing VR energy for a long period of time.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1-Jan
1-Feb
1-Mar
1-Apr
1-May
1-Jun
1-Jul
1-Aug
1-Sep
1-Oct
1-Nov
1-Dec
31-Dec
H2fromWind[TWh]
H2 produced from wind
(Note) Cost of Electrolyzer and Hydrogen Storage System: -90%, CO2: -90%, Without VR Suppression Control
SOC (State of Charge) of H2 storage tank and battery
(Tohoku region)

Wrap-up
46
Results suggests following challenges for massive RES integration
Unconventional operation such as daylight power charging in pumped-hydro
Decreased capacity factor of ramp generator
Base-load generator such as coal-fired needs to serves as ramp generator
Large-scale RES output curtailment is necessary.
Nationwide grid operation is important.
Regional grid expansion is an effective technical option.
In rougher resolution more than 30-min, battery installation sharply decreases.
The trend is more significant in short-term storage.
Hydrogen storage is a suitable option for storing RES energy for a long period of
time such as a monthly or seasonal scale.

Thank you for your kind attention.
Relevant Papers:
• Komiyama,R. and Fujii,Y., Energy, Vol.81, pp.537–555, 2015
• Komiyama,R. and Fujii,Y., Energy Policy, Vol.83, pp.169-184, 2015
• Komiyama,R.,Fujii,Y., Energy Policy, Vol.66, pp.73-89, 2014
……….
Ryoichi Komiyama
The University of Tokyo

Assessment of renewable energy in nation-wide power grid in Japan by optimal power generation mix model

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