1. ENERGY SECURITY IN
SOUTH ASIA
O PPORTUNITIES & C HALLENGES
Engr. Khondkar Abdus Saleque
(Peng & FIEB)

2. ENERGY SECURITY IN SOUTH ASIA
 Introduction
4/3/2013
 Energy Demands, Potential and
Scenario
Engr. Saleque
 Challenges for Energy Sector in
South Asia
 Opportunities, Prospects &
Challenges
 Way out (suggestions and
recommendations) 2

3. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque
3
Introduction

4. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque
4
MAP OF SOUTH ASIA…

5. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque
5
…MAP OF SOUTH ASIA

6. SOUTH ASIA: SOME FACTS
 Population: About 25%  GDP Growth Rate:
4/3/2013
of the world’s population Afghanistan- 8%
[about 1.56 billion].  India- 6 % to 9%
Engr. Saleque
 Total land: 4% [about Bangladesh- 6% to 6.5%
5.142 million Sq Km,] of Bhutan- 6%
all land surface on the  Maldives, Nepal,
earth. Pakistan & Sri Lanka -
 GDP : 2.1% of the world 3.5% to 5%.
GDP.
 GNI (except Maldives):
Only US$ 524, Highest
GNI Qatar US$ 98,948
in 2011. 6

7. ENERGY SECURITY & ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
 It is estimated that  is directly related to
4/3/2013
every 1% growth in economic
GDP creates 1.5% development, a
Engr. Saleque
growth in energy precondition for
demand. confronting
 Energy Security unemployment
 helps in sustainable
issues and poverty
quality energy alleviation,
supply accessible to
the people at
affordable cost, 7

8. 4/3/2013
Energy Demand,
Engr. Saleque
Potential & Scenario
8

9. ASIA’S ENERGY DEMAND (MTOE) AND GROWTH RATE (%)
FORECAST 2019-2020
Country Electricity Oil product Gas (Mtoe) Coal (Mtoe)
(Bkwh) (Mtoe)
Afghanistan 3.88 (13.1%) 3.48 (19.1%) 0.92 (14.5%) 0.0 (0.0%)
Bangladesh 72.79 (8.2%) 11.60 (7.3%) 44.03 (11.0%) 0.9 (3.7%)
Bhutan 6.88 (15.0%) 0.62 (16.0%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.11 (16.0%)
India 1756 (7.1%) 246.9 (4.8%) 101.8 (8.0%) 447.6 (6.2%)
Maldives 1.57 (5.9%) 1.66 (12.0%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.0 (0.0%)
Nepal 8.08 (8.0%) 1.61 (4.9%) 0.0 (0.0%) 0.78 (10.0%)
Pakistan 251.06 (7.5%) 30.94 (4.5%) 72.75 (6.2%) 13.9 (9.4%)
Sri Lanka 23.87 (7.2%) 7.82 (6.2%) 0.0 (0.0%) 7.0 (-)
Note: Figures in parenthesis refer to percentage growth rate for the forecast period 2003/04-
2019/20. : NEXANT, August 2005.

10. INSTALLED CAPACITY MW
Countries Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Maldives Pakistan Sri
Lanka
Fuel Type
Thermal 115 6000+ 17 123,759 54 200 13,978 2291
Coal NA 200 NA 105,437 NA NA NA 900
Gas NA 5,580 NA 18,095 NA NA 6,094 NA
Oil 115 2,315 17 1200 54 200 7,855 1381
Hydro 374 220 1,488 38,848 667 NA 6,481 1368
Nuclear NA NA NA 4780 NA NA 462 NA
Renewable NA 75 0.5 22,233 NA NA 38
Total 489 8,390 1505.5 189,620 714 200 21,021 3687
Dependable 7,500 1,505 170,000 400- 180 14,000 2,500-
Generation 700 3,500

11. POWER: GENERATION, CONSUMPTION
Country Population Electricity Electricity
Generation Consumption
(Gwh)/Annual (Gwh)/Annual
Afghanistan 29,835,392 754 231
Bangladesh 15,25,18,015 35,1188 (F2012) 29,850 (F2012)
Bhutan 708,427 2,000 184
India 1,210,198,422 1,920,792 905,974
Nepal 26,620,999 2,511 2,525
Maldives 394,999 169 *542
Pakistan 177,100,000 90,400 68,550
Sri Lanka 20,238,000 9,507 7,885

12. MTOE Primary Energy Demand of SAARC Region
52% of Primary Energy would be utilized to meet the Demand of Electricity

13. COMMERCIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
 OIL Consumption dominates the most countries
- 100% in Maldives, 30% in Bhutan, India & Pakistan, others 60% - 80%
GAS dominates in Pakistan & Bangladesh.
COAL dominates in India
14

14. ENERGY RESOURCE IN SAARC
Countries Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Pakistan Maldives Nepal Sri
Lanka
Coal (Million 440 3300 2 90085 17550 NA NA NA
Tonnes)
Gas TCF 15 20.5 NA 39 33 NA NA NA
Oil Million Barrels NA 55 NA 5700 324 NA NA 150
Hydro MW 25,000 330 30,000 150,000 50,000 NA 42,000 2,000
Biomass Million NA NI 26.6 139 NI 0.06 27.04 12
Tonnes
Bangladesh Use 55 Million Tonnes of Biomass Annually.

15. PRIMARY RESOURCE POTENTIAL
4/3/2013
 Coal (MT)  Natural Gas (TCF)
 India-56.50  India-37.26
Engr. Saleque
 Pakistan-3.45  Bangladesh-8.52
 Afghanistan-4.4  Pakistan 32.28
 Bangladesh- 8.8  Hydropower (MW)
 Oil (Billion barrels)  India -40,000
 India - 5.5  Nepal and Bhutan
 Afghanistan-75 has substantial
 Pakistani-353
potential of
Hydropower
16

16. SCENARIO…
 Optimal development of the region's
4/3/2013
internal energy resources is hampered.
 Access to the significant energy resources
Engr. Saleque
in the neighboring countries is denied.
 This increases the cost of energy supply.
 It reduces energy security of the
individual countries and of the region as a
whole.
 High technical & commercial losses.
 Poor commercial performance of service
providers. 17

17. …SCENARIO
 National energy systems are weak or have
non-existent interconnections.
4/3/2013
 Poor Governance and Corruption impede
growth and professional development .
Engr. Saleque
 Absence of rational pricing of energy and
effective regulatory oversight creates
inefficiency and wastage.
 Little cross-border trade in electricity
[except India-Bhutan trade].
 No cross-border trade in natural gas.
18

18. 4/3/2013
Challenges for the
Engr. Saleque
Energy Sector in
South Asia
19

19. CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA …
 Countries in South Asia are facing a triple
challenges of energy security, climate change
4/3/2013
and energy access
E.g., energy access in India is only about 67%,
Engr. Saleque

which means about 400 million people are without
access.
 Access situation is even worse in other
countries in South Asia.
 Mobilization of resources for energy
infrastructure is a huge challenge.
20

20. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA…
4/3/2013
 Latent demand & supply energy gap is a
major energy security issue for the region
Engr. Saleque
despite its fastest growing GDP growth
rate of about 6%.
 International Energy Agency (IEA) has
projected highest growth rate of energy
consumption by 2020 in South Asia.
21

21. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA…
 Despite impressive macro-economic growth,
4/3/2013
the energy sector in South Asia:
 has failed to keep pace with economic
Engr. Saleque
growth,
 faces chronic supply shortage and poor
quality of service,
 cannot ensure access to commercial energy
sources to half of the 1.56 million people.
 Energy constraints, on the average, restricts
GDP Growth by 2% - 3%.
22

22. …CHALLENGES FOR SOUTH ASIA
 Appropriate Energy sector reforms are
4/3/2013
essential for ensuring sustained growth of
the sector and optimal development
Engr. Saleque
through –
 improving the efficiency and quality of service,
 commercial viability of energy industry,
 institutional and governance
arrangements,
 accountability of service providers and
investment climate
23

23. 4/3/2013
Opportunities,
Engr. Saleque
Prospects &
Challenges
24

24. OPPORTUNITIES: IN THE REGION AND
THE NEIGHBOURING AREAS…
 The following factors create significant opportunities for
4/3/2013
cooperation and trade in the energy sector in South Asia
 Variety of resource endowments,
Engr. Saleque
 Development needs,
 Demand patterns among the countries in the region and
its neighborhood,
 Necessity to create world's largest integrated energy
market due to presence of energy resource surplus
countries –
 Nepal, Bhutan in SA region,
 Central Asian countries, Iran, Myanmar in the neighborhood.
 Benefit from energy export-led growth and implementation of
large-scale regional projects
25

25. …OPPORTUNITIES: IN THE REGION
AND THE NEIGHBOURING AREAS.
 Iran has the highest reserve of natural gas,
4/3/2013
 Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Myanmar
Engr. Saleque
have also substantial reserve of natural gas,
 Iran has quite substantial oil reserve .
Kazakhstan and Myanmar has also
substantial oil deposit,
 Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have
substantial coal reserve,
 Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar have
huge potential of hydropower. 26

26. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE IN EASTERN
PART OF SAARC
Importer
India
Bhutan
Nepal
B’desh
S. Lanka
Myanmar
4/3/2013
Engr. Saleque
India
Hydro Hydro Peak Power Gas &
Gas & Power
power power support Power
X
Resourc
e and
Small amount
Bhutan
seasona Unlikely,
of Thermal
Dry Time l Small
Power and Gas No Scope
support X shortag Market
Via India
e
Similar Small amount
Thermal
Resource of Thermal
Nepal
Power ,Dry
and Power and Gas
Season No Scope Unlikely
27
seasonal X Via India
support
shortage

27. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE IN EASTERN
PART OF SAARC
Importers
Sri Lanka
Myanmar
Bhutan
B’desh
Nepal
India
4/3/2013
Engr. Saleque
Bangladesh
Sharing
Hydropo Hydropo
Reserves,
wer Via wer Via
Electricity X No Scope Unlikely
India India
Swap.
Dry
Season
Sri Lanka
and
Thermal Unlikely Unlikely Unlikely X Unlikely
Power
support
Myanmar
Uncompe Uncompetiti
Uncompe 28
No Scope titive ve No Scope X
titive

28. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE SAARC
Turkme Afghanis
Importer CARs Iran Pakistan India
nistan tan
Some
4/3/2013
Central Gas
Limited
Asian Export &
X Unlikely No Scope Emergenc No Scope
Regions mutual
y Support
Engr. Saleque
(CARs) electricit
y support
Mutual
Turkmeni
Electricity X No Scope No Scope No Scope No Scope
stan
Support
Limited
Power
Power No Scope
Iran Export
Exports
Ongoing
Possible
Power
Power Power Small
Export
Export Export cross
Ongoing
Afghanist Ongoing Ongoing border No Scope
and X
an and and Should Power 29
Should
Should Grow Export
Grow
Grow Possible

29. PROSPECTS FOR TRADE SAARC
Importin Turkmenist Afghanis Pakista
CARs Iran India
g an tan n
4/3/2013
Significan
t
Potential
Engr. Saleque
for gas Mutual
No scope ,
Potential Significant export , Short
Transit of
Pakistan Power Potential for cross X Term
electricity
Exports Gas Export border support
and Gas
electricity in power
trade
could
grow
Mutual
Significan short
t term
Gas, Significant No Scope
Potential trading
India power Potential for ,Transit X
for Gas support
export Gas Export of Gas
Export in power 30
, transit
of gas

30. SOME REGIONAL PROJECTS:
PROSPECTS
 Import of hydropower from Central Asia
4/3/2013
to Afghanistan and Pakistan;
 Regional Trade of hydropower from Nepal
Engr. Saleque
and Bhutan through electricity
interconnections between India - Sri
Lanka and India - Bangladesh;
 Gas imports from Central Asia [TAPI],
Iran {IPI}, and Myanmar [Myanmar to
India Pipeline Across Bangladesh]
31

31. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque
32
IPI PIPELINE…

32. …IPI PIPELINES…
 Conceptualized in 1950s by a Pakistani civil
engineer and conceived by Indian and Iranians
4/3/2013
in 1989, preliminary agreement was signed in
1995 between Iran and Pakistan
Engr. Saleque

 1999 between India and Iran
 2775 KM [1724 Miles] 56” OD Trans-
border Gas Transmission Pipeline .
 Design Capacity : 4 BCM
 Discharge : 1 Tcf per annum
 National Iranian Oil Company, Sui Northern
Gas Pipeline Companies, Sui Southern Gas
Company, GAZPROM 33

33. 4/3/2013 Engr. Saleque
34
TAPI PIPELINES…

34. …TAPI PIPELINES…
A Gas Pipeline Framework Agreement,
signed by representatives of the four
4/3/2013
participating nations on April 25, 2008 in
Islamabad, envisaged construction to start in
Engr. Saleque
2010, supplying gas by 2015.
 1,000-mile route from Central to South Asia -
Turkmenistan (Dauletabad) – Afghanistan
(Heart, Helmand – Kandahar) – Pakistan
(Quetta and Multan) – India (Fazilka).
 ADB on the basis of its study reported that the
estimated capital cost was $7.6 billion and it
would consider financing the project
35

35. …TAPI PIPELINES
4/3/2013
 Four country framework agreement installed.
 India and Pakistan signed GPSA with
Engr. Saleque
Turkmenistan
 Transit tariff agreement among transit countries
were under negotiation
 But in efforts to attract investors for build, own
and operate the about 8 Billion dollar pipeline
the project sponsor ADB got very poor response.
36

36. ROADBLOCKS IN TRANSBORDER
ENERGY TRADE
 Geopolitics
4/3/2013
 Bilateral political irritants – Border disputes,
Water sharing issues, etc.
Engr. Saleque
 Lack of political will and commitment
 Insurgency and security concerns
 Absence of effective independent regulatory
institutions for creating level play ground for
private and public sector companies.
 Lack of effective public –private partnership.
 Corruption and political interference 37

37. 4/3/2013
Suggestions &
Engr. Saleque
Recommendations
38

38. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
 South Asian countries
4/3/2013
 Need to institutionalize an integrated
energy planning approach (IEPA);
Engr. Saleque
 Need to undertake serious efforts and
appropriate measures to improve energy
efficiency at all levels;
 Need to take appropriate measures to
reduce demand for liquid fuel for saving
money and protecting environment from
carbon emission;
39

39. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Need to harness hydro-power
4/3/2013

potentials in Pakistan, India, Nepal
and Bhutan on priority over other
Engr. Saleque
commercial energy sources;
 Need to avail the benefits of importing
energy from neighboring countries,
especially from Central Asia, Tran and
Myanmar through establishing gas
and power grid connected to Central
Asia and South Asia
40

40. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
 Need to implement reforms in the sector
4/3/2013
through
 segregation of the regulatory functions
Engr. Saleque
from the government and vesting them in
an independent regulatory commission,
 Unbundling the various activities of
vertically into distinct and separate units
based on functions,
 Tariff reforms
 Private sector participation
41

41. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
 Sharing Knowledge and Expertise
4/3/2013
 Easing Visa formalities for Energy
Professionals and experts of South
Engr. Saleque
Asian Country nationals
 Creation and accessibility of
regional energy data base
 Exploring funding for clean
technologies
42

42. SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS…
 Action Plan
4/3/2013
 Setting up a South Asian
Engr. Saleque
Regional Energy Foundation
with Government and
representatives
 Setting up a South Asian
Investment Promotion Fund
43

43. ….SUGGESTIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
 Settingup a mechanism to study
4/3/2013
in details and report on
desirability and feasibility of:
Engr. Saleque
 Regional energy grid
 Regional gas grid
 Regional petroleum strategic
reserve
 South Asian Citizen’s Forum of
Energy
44