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Diagnosing Complex Problems Using System Archetypes
- 1. Diagnosing Complex Problems using System Archetypes Chua Kim Koon, Aaron #ISSLearningFest
- 2. #ISSLearningFest Challenges and Problems Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/blistering-british-heatwave-at-least-10-times-more-likely-due-to-climate- change-study Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/south-asia/worlds-rice-supply-faces-new-threat-from-lack-of-rain-in-india
- 4. #ISSLearningFest Challenges and Problems Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/housing/hdb-resale-prices-rise-for-24th-straight-month-in-june-ground-floor-yishun-flat-sold-for-1m Source: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/fare-surge-booking-difficulty-phc-taxi-higher-demand-fewer-drivers- iswaran-2851876
- 5. Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous
- 6. #ISSLearningFest Complex Probe Sense Respond Emergent Practices Complicated Sense Analyse Respond Good Practices Chaotic Act Sense Respond Novel Practices Clear Sense Categorise Respond Best Practices Cynefin Framework A framework that help us to sort issues that we faced into five contexts defined by the nature of the relationship between cause and effect DISORDER Ordered Known Knowns Known Unknowns Unknown Unknowns Unknowables Unordered
- 7. Complex Context #ISSLearningFest Complex Probe Sense Respond Emergent Practices Unknown Root Cause Unknown Solution • Requires experimentation • Need to explore to even ask the right question No guarantee solution will work
- 8. Complex Context #ISSLearningFest Complex Probe Sense Respond Emergent Practices Unknown Root Cause Unknown Solution System Archetypes No guarantee solution will work
- 9. System Archetypes #ISSLearningFest • Common sub-system patterns (systemic issues) of side-effects and actions/reactions found within complex systems • List of Archetypes: 1. Balancing process with delay 2. Fixes that Fail 3. Accidental Adversaries 4. Limits to Growth 5. Attractiveness Principle 6. Success to the Successful 7. Tragedy of the Commons 8. Drifting Goals 9. Escalation 10. Shifting the Burden
- 10. #ISSLearningFest Queensland, Australia in 1930s Sugarcane crops Cane Beetles!!!!!!
- 11. #ISSLearningFest Beetle’s larvae eating the roots of sugar cane and killing the plants Save our crops!
- 12. #ISSLearningFest In 1935, 102 Cane Toads imported from Hawaii
- 13. #ISSLearningFest Did the cane toads accomplished their mission?
- 14. #ISSLearningFest Sort of AND …… Sorry. I cannot jump very high.
- 15. #ISSLearningFest Sort of AND …… Just to let you know, I eat anything that can fit into my mouth. Adult cane toads can grow up 25 centimeters
- 16. #ISSLearningFest Sort of AND …… Eat me at your own risk
- 17. #ISSLearningFest Cane toads became the very pests that they were supposed to destroy. • No natural predators • Breed any time of the year Northern Territory Western Australia
- 18. #ISSLearningFest Today, more than 200 millions Cane Toads. Northern Territory Western Australia
- 19. S O Fixes that Fail #ISSLearningFest This archetype describe a situation where a fix is effective in the short- term but creates side effects for the long-term and may results in the need for even more fixes. Causal Loop Diagram Variable A Variable B B • Map out action and reaction • Study and understand complex scenarios
- 20. S Fixes that Fail #ISSLearningFest Problem Symptom Fix Unintended Consequence B1 R1 Delay S S O S This archetype describe a situation where a fix is effective in the short- term but creates side effects for the long-term and may results in the need for even more fixes. Solve the real problem Acknowledge the fix is merely alleviating a symptom
- 21. Project Delay – Fixes that Fail #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave S S Delay Overtime O S
- 22. A man came home from work after a hot day outside. #ISSLearningFest 36°C House temperature 34°C
- 23. Feeling very warm, he switched on the aircon and set it to 22°C. #ISSLearningFest 22°C 36°C House temperature 34°C
- 24. He decided to go out for a jog as dinner was not ready. #ISSLearningFest 36°C 22°C House temperature 34°C
- 25. A few minutes later, the man’s wife came home. #ISSLearningFest 36°C 22°C House temperature 33.9°C
- 26. Feeling warm too, she set the air-con temperature to 19°C. #ISSLearningFest 36°C 19°C House temperature 33.9°C
- 27. Then she went to the kitchen to prepare dinner. #ISSLearningFest 36°C 19°C House temperature 33.9°C
- 28. The man came home from his run and was greeted with a freezing house. #ISSLearningFest 36°C 19°C House temperature 19°C Kitchen temperature 25°C
- 29. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed.
- 30. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest GAP Corrective Action Actual B S O S Delay Desired Level S This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed. The bigger the gap, the more corrective action taken The more corrective action taken, the closer we get to the actual state The closer the actual state, the lesser the gap
- 31. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Corrective Action Actual B S O S Delay S This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed. GAP Desired Level More aggressive corrective action
- 32. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Corrective Action Actual B S O S Delay S This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed. -ve GAP Desired Level
- 33. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Corrective Action Actual B S O S Delay S This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed. Desired Level Be patient GAP
- 34. Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Corrective Action Actual B S O S Delay S This archetype explains the system in which the response to action is delayed. Desired Level Improve system response GAP
- 35. Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave Hire New Staff S S Delay Overtime Delay O S O S Why is there delay in reducing the project delay after adding new staff?
- 36. Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave Hire New Staff S S Delay Overtime Delay O S O S Disruption to current team
- 37. Project Delay – Balancing Process with Delay #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave Hire New Staff S S Delay Overtime Delay O S O S Inexperience Engagement Mastery LEARNING TIME Take time to get up to speed
- 38. Having a bad headache and want to see a doctor Hospital #ISSLearningFest Tom
- 39. Teammate recommended a painkiller from the pharmacy. Pharmacy #ISSLearningFest Tom
- 40. The painkillers worked! And from then on, you relied on the painkillers for your headache. Pharmacy #ISSLearningFest Tom
- 41. Not aware that the underlying problem was worsening. Pharmacy #ISSLearningFest Tom
- 42. Collapsed and ended up in hospital. #ISSLearningFest Pharmacy Tom
- 43. Shifting the Burden #ISSLearningFest O S S Side Effect B2 S O O Symptomatic Solution Problem Symptom Fundamental Solution B1 Delay R This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution. Shifting the Burden = Fixes that Fail ≠
- 44. Shifting the Burden #ISSLearningFest O S S Side Effect B2 S O O Symptomatic Solution Problem Symptom Fundamental Solution B1 Delay R This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution. Start searching for the root cause
- 45. Shifting the Burden #ISSLearningFest O S S Side Effect B2 S O O Symptomatic Solution Problem Symptom Fundamental Solution B1 Delay R This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution. Use symptomatic solution only to buy time
- 46. Shifting the Burden #ISSLearningFest O S S Side Effect B2 S O O Symptomatic Solution Problem Symptom Fundamental Solution B1 Delay R This archetype captures the situation when dealing with a problem with a temporary/short term solution, which affects the fundamental solution. Remove symptomatic solutions that no longer work
- 47. Project Delay – Shifting the Burden #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave Hire New Staff S S Delay Overtime Delay O S O S Outsource to Company A S O Reliance on Company A O S Is this a good or bad strategy?
- 48. #ISSLearningFest
- 49. Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome #ISSLearningFest Goal B2 O S Pressure to Lower Goal GAP S Corrective Action Actual B1 S O S Delay This archetype describes a situation where a gap between the goal and current reality can be resolved by taking corrective action or lowering the goal. The latter will eventually lead to deterioration of long- term goals.
- 50. Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome Goal B2 O S Pressure to Lower Goal GAP S Corrective Action Actual B1 S O S Delay This archetype describes a situation where a gap between the goal and current reality can be resolved by taking corrective action or lowering the goal. The latter will eventually lead to deterioration of long- term goals. Huge gap Jump out Small gap Slowly adapt to the gradual increase in temperature Perceived body temperature drift higher #ISSLearningFest
- 51. Drifting Goals aka Boiled Frog syndrome Goal B2 O S Pressure to Lower Goal GAP S Corrective Action Actual B1 S O S Delay This archetype describes a situation where a gap between the goal and current reality can be resolved by taking corrective action or lowering the goal. The latter will eventually lead to deterioration of long- term goals. #ISSLearningFest Disconnect the pressure to lower goal
- 52. Project Delay – Drifting Goals #ISSLearningFest Project Delay Sick Leave Hire New Staff S S Delay Overtime Delay O S O S Outsource to Company A S O Reliance on Company A O S Pressure to lower quality Quality Goal S O Debts incurred, hurts even more in the long run
- 53. Two project managers, Tom and Jerry. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 54. Equals resources for both project managers. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 55. More resource to Tom’s project. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 56. More resource to Tom’s project. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 57. Even more resource to Tom’s project. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 58. Even more resource to Tom’s project. #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 59. Winner and Loser situation #ISSLearningFest Tom Jerry Nancy
- 60. Success to the Successfully #ISSLearningFest This archetype describes the outcome of a situation is highly dependent on the initial conditions and whether they favor one party or the other. Success of A R2 O S Allocation to A Instead of B S R1 S O S Resources to A Success of B Resources to B Balance the distribution of resources
- 61. Success to the Successfully #ISSLearningFest This archetype describes the outcome of a situation is highly dependent on the initial conditions and whether they favor one party or the other. Success of A R2 O S Allocation to A Instead of B S R1 S O S Resources to A Success of B Resources to B Competitors Collaborators
- 62. Summary Understanding problems in Complex Context #ISSLearningFest Success to the Successful Fixes that fail Balancing process with delay Shifting the burden Drifting goals
- 64. #ISSLearningFest Upcoming Class: 27 Oct 2022 (Thurs) to 28 Oct 2022 (Fri) https://www.iss.nus.edu.sg/executive- education/course/detail/systems--thinking- root-cause-analysis/digital-agility
- 65. Give Us Your Feedback #ISSLearningFest Day 2 Programme