An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
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An exclusive presentation delivered by IDC for Intergen's customers, detailing how their original 2008 predictions were tracking throughout the year. For more information, go to www.intergen.co.nz.
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An Update On IDC's Top 10 Predictions For 2008
- 1. ICT 2008 - Predictions vs. Reality Ullrich Loeffler Program Manager Software ANZ September 2008 Copyright 2008 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
- 2. Analyzing the Future Nostradamus e T im Future Assumptions e T im 2008-2010: Prediction of the near future 2007: What happened in the past? © 2008 IDC Sep-08 2
- 3. IDC Top 10 Predictions 2008 The Labour Market Will Worsen Emergence of the Software as a Service Ecosystem Green IT - Issues Behind the Addressing the Information Hype Will Shine Through Chaos Telecom’s Competitive Rethink Will the Future of the Channel 2008 Will be the Year of Next- Ecosystem be Revolution or Generation Telecom Investment Evolution? Regulation and Separation - Government Convergence of Business and Policies Will Face the Acid Test IT Consulting Unified Communications © 2008 IDC Sep-08 3
- 4. AGENDA Green IT - Issues Behind the Emergence of the Software as a Hype Will Shine Through Service Ecosystem Macro-Economic Overview The Drive for Operational Efficiencies Technology as a Business Enabler Convergence of Business Addressing the Information and IT Consulting Chaos © 2008 IDC Sep-08 4
- 5. Nothing new to tell you… © 2008 IDC Sep-08 5
- 6. Net Income Increase 2003 - 2008 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 (Q2) -0.5% Consumer Price Index Salary Index Net Income Increase Source: Statistics New Zealand © 2008 IDC Sep-08 6
- 7. Where Does the Money Go? © 2008 IDC Sep-08 7
- 8. IT Expenditure Patterns 7 IT Spend as a % of Turnover IT Spend as a % of Operating Expense 6 IT Spend outside of IS Budget (% revenue) 5 4 3 2 1 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 Source: IDC Forecast for Management survey 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 8
- 9. The Good News: What CIOs Think of IT 80% Contributed to 70% Operational Capability 60% 50% Source Of Competitive Advantage 40% 30% Mixed Record in IT Investments 20% 10% Disappointed in IT Investment 0% Returns 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Source: IDC Forecast for Management survey 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 9
- 10. The Impact on Industry Economics Price p0 p1 p2 p0 Revenue0 p1 Scenario 1 = Settle in new equilibrium Q1 Revenue1 p2 Scenario 2 = Settle in new equilibrium Q2 Revenue2 n1 n0 Quantity Supply Curve Demand Curve © 2008 IDC Sep-08 10
- 11. The Drive for Operational Efficiencies Innovation 20% Ongoing IT Operations and Infrastructure 80% Business Automation Green IT and Virtualization The SaaS Delivery Model © 2008 IDC Sep-08 11
- 12. Enterprise Resource Management Installed and Forecast – By Organisation Size Source: IDC Australia and New Zealand’s 2000-2007 Forecast for Management Survey © 2008 IDC Sep-08 12
- 13. How Green is Green IT? Green Environment Green Marketing Green Payouts © 2008 IDC Sep-08 13
- 14. State of Infrastructure Today - Challenges and Inefficiencies Server Sprawl Power & Cooling 41 m physical servers by 50c for every $1 spent on 2010 - 700% increase in 15 servers years $29 bn in power and cooling Ave UT <10% = $140 bn in industry wide excess server capacity - a 3-year supply Data Center Cost Operating Cost $1,000 /sqft $8 in maintenance for every $1 spent on new $2,400 / server infrastructure $40,000 / rack 20-30 : 1 server-to-admin ratio Source: IDC, 2007 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 14
- 15. Server Management Economics - Is this a sustainable situation? Source: IDC, 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 15
- 16. What Is Software as a Service (SaaS)? Built for one-to- Built for one to few delivery for Software as a Service many delivery management of over Web traditionally licensed Applications packaged not deployed applications in-house Dedicated Shared infrastructure/ Hosted Software On Application infrastructure environments Demand Management Little Highly customized customization One-time license License and and recurring hosting fee maintenance or cannot be support fee differentiated Perpetual License Subscription One-to-Few One-to-Many Private Infrastructure Public Infrastructure Source: IDC's Worldwide Software as a Service Taxonomy, 2007, IDC #205662 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 16
- 17. Current use of SaaS Applications % of Respondents that have adopted SaaS Total SaaS adoption 8.9% 50% N=202 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ERP CRM Intelligence Collaboration Forecasting Management conferencing Billing and Business Document Web and Source: IDC New Zealand, 2007 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 17
- 18. Future use of Software-as-a-Service Q: At what level do you expect your future percentage of SaaS services compared to your on-premise software? 49.0% N=202 17.8% 12.4% 20.8% 0% >0% and <=15 % >15% Don't know Source: IDC New Zealand, 2007 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 18
- 19. The Top 5 Concerns for SaaS Q: Which are the following areas you would consider the most important for SaaS services? Lack of Application Services and Choice Company Regulatory and Compliance Lack of Control Trusted Infrastructure Data Privacy 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: IDC New Zealand, 2007 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 19
- 20. IT as a Business Enabler Innovation 20% Ongoing IT Operations and Infrastructure 80% Customer Relationship Management Information Management/BI Collaboration © 2008 IDC Sep-08 20
- 21. Customer Relationship Management Installed and Forecast – By Industry Source: IDC Australia and New Zealand’s 2000-2007 Forecast for Management Survey © 2008 IDC Sep-08 21
- 22. Customer demands are evolving - rapidly From push … … To pull From one to many … From packaged … … to one to one … to personal © 2008 IDC Sep-08 22
- 23. Industry Behavior is Rapidly Changing Retail: From where consumers shop … to the WAY they shop Manufacturing: From procurement hubs to virtual project hubs Banking: From single channel to multichannel Healthcare: From care provisioning to customer- directed wellness Energy: From commodity to consumer managed IT: From capacity to capability © 2008 IDC Sep-08 23
- 24. Technology Goals Will Change From … To … Building infrastructure Building community Creating content Creating loyalty Enabling transactions Enabling self-service/help Capturing eyeballs Capturing experts Integrating applications Integrating channels © 2008 IDC Sep-08 24
- 25. The Growth in Data : Digital Universe Complexity, Confusion & Compliance 2007 Study 2008 Study Data Created 161 Exabytes in 2006 281 Exabytes in 2007 Forecast 988 Exabytes in 2010 1,800 Exabytes in 2011 Creation 70% data created by 70% data created by Individuals – 50% Individuals real, 50% ‘digital shadow’ Geographically AP low, EU/US High AP rapidly growing in share of content speaking created Storage In 2007 we create more than By 2011, half of what we create won’t be we can store stored Compliance 85% of data created the 85% of data created the responsibility of responsibility of organisations organisations Vertical Industries TV & Media, Finance TV/Media, Finance, Manufacturing, Retail, Transport, Utilities, Oil/Gas, Government © 2008 IDC Sep-08 25
- 26. Conflicting Curves In e fo m lu rm Vo at on ion i at Va o rm lu nf e I Competitive Opportunity © 2008 IDC Sep-08 26
- 27. The Growth in Data : How to Adapt . . . © 2008 IDC Sep-08 27
- 28. The Growth in Data : How to Adapt . . . © 2008 IDC Sep-08 28
- 29. Information – The Productivity Drain Time searching for info (hours/week) Time searching 8 7.3 Time wasted 7 6 5.3 5 Time searching 4 3 NZ$10,926 2 Time wasted 1 NZ$3,902 0 Internal External information information Note: *Based on average annual salary of NZ$34,684 and 40 hours a week; source Statistics New Zealand Income Survey June 2007.. Source: IDC Forecast for Management survey 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 29
- 30. Towards Non-Linear Workflows & Contextual Collaboration High Video Conferencing Virtual World Information Team Collaboration Web conferencing Collaboration People Social Networking Voice conferencing Knowledge Sites Portal Blogs / Wikis Application Sharing Instant Messaging Process Unified Email Messaging Low Low Content Sharing High Leveraging the Web Experience © 2008 IDC Sep-08 30
- 31. CIO Themes in 2008 CUSTOMER is King IT & Business INFORMATION SYNTHESIS is Power Themes Corporate CITIZENSHIP OPERATIONAL Excellence Source: IDC Forecast for Management survey 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 31
- 32. Where is the $ Spent in 2008? 1 Collaborative Technologies and Knowledge Management 2 System Infrastructure (Security, Storage, Network, Middleware) 3 Back Office Applications eg: ERP 4 Business Intelligence and Data Warehousing 5 Front Office Applications eg: CRM 6 eBusiness: Connectivity 7 Supply Chain Management 8 IP Telephony 9 Wireless and Mobility 10 SOA Source: IDC ANZ Forecast for Management Survey, 2008 © 2008 IDC Sep-08 32
- 33. Conclusion Operational efficiencies will be “top of mind” concern accelerated by the economic pressure Changing business models will emerge based on, and supported by enabling technologies “Information is knowledge” – but don’t neglect people and processes. © 2008 IDC Sep-08 33
- 34. Contact Info Ullrich Loeffler Direct: +64 9 374 6690 IDC New Zealand Ltd uloeffler@idc.com Level 7, 203 Queen Street PO Box 5538, Wellesley Street Auckland, New Zealand Fax: +64 9 309-2774 Program Manager - Software Research IDC Pacific www.idc.com © 2008 IDC Sep-08 34