Ipsos MORI held a fringe event at the Labour Party conference, which aimed to move beyond the Westminster village to consider how the average person sees the political parties and the state of Britain today. The fringe event focused on the Labour Party and Ed Miliband's standing in the public mind and whether the party can increase its share of the vote at the next election beyond its 2010 result of 29%. Panellists: Michael Dugher MP, Andrew Harrop (Fabian Society), Sophy Ridge (Sky News), Gideon Skinner (Ipsos MORI), Bobby Duffy (chair, Ipsos MORI)
4. 4September’s poll showed a curbing of enthusiasm
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative lead = -10
All giving a voting
intention:
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
30%
40%
10%
10%
10%
Base 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th -9h September 2013, all certain to vote = 545
Labour
Conservative
Lib Dem
UKIP
Other
All certain to vote:
Conservative lead = -3
34%
37%
10%
11%
8%
5. 5
Labour are holding on to most of 2010 voters
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote
Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013
Voted Labour
in 2010
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote
Not Con/Lab/LD any more
59%23%
18%
6. 6
But not winning over many Tories…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Still Con, not certain to vote
Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013
Voted Tory
in 2010
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Still Con and certain to vote Not Con any more
49%
20%
13%
5%
2%
11%
Other
Lib Dems
UKIP
Labour
7. 7
Relying heavily on Lib Dem switchers
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Still LD, not certain to vote
Base: 8,091 GB adults 18+, January-August 2013
Voted LD
in 2010
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Still LD and certain to vote Not LD any more
26%
13%
29%
7%
5%
20%
Other
UKIP
Conservatives
Labour
10. 10
What makes people vote the way they do?
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
11. 11
What makes people vote the way they do?
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
79%
88%
83%
67%
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
12. 12
The good image…
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
And the less good image
14%
21%
17%
27%
38%
27%
47%
39%
Fit to govern
Has a good team of leaders
41%
27%
44%
29%
55%
43%
44%
30%
Understands the problems
facing Britain
Looks after the interest of
people like me
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrats UKIP
13. 13
But no-one really comes out particularly well
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
73%
41%
24%
28%
46%
46%
15%
62%
50%
50%
25%
62%
52%
50%
26%
67%
Different to other parties
Out of date
Keeps its promises
Divided
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
15. 15
So, what about policies?
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
80%
79%
87%
88%
75%
83%
77%
67%
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
17. 17
18%
3%
11%
9%
6%
6%
21%
19%
19%
22%
31%
22%
Europe
Crime & anti-social behaviour
Asylum/ immigration
Conservative party Labour party Liberal Democrat party UKIP
And the Conservatives lead where you would
expect them to
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
18. 18
Base: 970 British adults 18+, 30th August – 8th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
But on the most important issue…
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
45
33
32
23
21
16
13
13
11
10
Top mentions %
Economy
Race relations/Immigration
Inflation/Prices
NHS
Unemployment
Crime/Law and order
Defence/foreign affairs
Education/schools
Poverty/Inequality
Housing
21. 21
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over
the next 12 months?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
Perhaps not surprising given summer of rising
economic optimism…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index =
% improve minus % get worse
Still get blamed for
economy and cuts
Balls doing
no better than
Osborne
22. 22
Although closer on the living standards debate
Do you think you and you family would be better off under a Conservative government or a Labour
government, or do you think it would make no difference?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th – 9th September 2013
Conservative lead = -1
22%
52%
23%
Conservative
government
Labour
government
Make no
difference
24. 24
The leader is a particular draw for the
Conservatives
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
53%
80%
79%
36%
87%
88%
37%
75%
83%
64%
77%
67%
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
25. 25
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Ed Miliband’s approval ratings are concerning
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction
26. 26
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
CAMERON (2005-2010)
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction
27. 27
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction
28. 28
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
HAGUE (1997-2001)
DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
How does Ed match up to his predecessors?
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
MILIBAND (2010-2013)
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-fa
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Netsatisfaction
29. 29
Cameron and Farage do better among their own
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron/Nick Clegg/Ed Miliband/Nigel Farage is doing
his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/leader of the Labour Party/UKIP?
40%
52%
8%
SatisfiedDon’t know
Dissatisfied
48%
44%
7%
79%
10%
11%
71%
23%
8%
30. 30
24
26
28
15
13
24
23
18
6
8
8
8
20
21
20
26
30
16
17
30
7
4
4
3
I don't know what Nigel Farage
stands for
I don't know what Nick Clegg
stands for
I don't know what Ed Miliband
stands for
I don't know what David Cameron
stands for
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree
Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don't Know
Half don’t know what he stands for
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 10th -12th August 2013
33% 56%
51% 37%
50% 37%
37% 50%
31. 31
And Cameron leads on more Prime Ministerial
qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various
politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
79%
50%
70%
52%
40%
53%
47%
40%
58%
52%
49%
41%
32%
28%
20%
19%
MilibandCameron
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,000 British adults 18+, 7th-9th September 2013
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
Has got a lot of personality
Looks after some sections of society
more than others
33. 33
Can’t ignore the other parties….
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
53%
80%
79%
36%
87%
88%
37%
75%
83%
64%
77%
67%
I don't like any of the other parties
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
34. 34
Can’t ignore the other parties….
Which if any, of the of the following are the most important reasons why you said you vote for..?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative supporters Liberal Democrat supporters UKIP supportersLabour supporters
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013
56%
53%
80%
79%
48%
36%
87%
88%
41%
37%
75%
83%
43%
64%
77%
67%
I don't like any of the other parties
I think their leader would make the best
Prime Minister
I agree with their policies
I believe in what the party stands for
35. 35
Netsatisfaction
LABOUR: 1997 - 2010
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from new
government taking power
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face
methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
2001 GE
1987 GE
JOHN MAJOR
BECOMES PM
CONSERVATIVES: 1979-1997
COALITION: 2010-2012
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?
Most governments suffer from diminishing returns….
2005 GE
GORDON BROWN
BECOMES PM
1983 GE
1992 GE
36. 36
The Conservatives are still the most disliked party
Which of these statements come closest to your view of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat/United
Kingdom Independence party?
% dislike party
37. 37
People have different ideas about the best way of dealing with Britain’s economic difficulties. Which of the
following do you most agree with?
And they have their issues too….
Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
52 6 41
Britain has a debt problem, built up over many
years, and we have got to deal with it. If we
don’t, interest rates will soar. That’s why
tackling the deficit and keeping interest rates
low should be our top priority.
Without growth in our economy, we are not
getting the deficit down and are borrowing
more. We need more government spending on
investment to kick-start our economy and a
temporary cut in taxes to support growth
37 10 53
George Osborne argues… Ed Balls argues…
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+, 9th – 11th March 2013
38. 38
Tactical voting isn’t dead…..
You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it
be?
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Lab
supporters
Lib Dem
supporters
Conservatives 14 30
Labour - 31
Liberal Democrats 30 -
UKIP 9 7
Other 16 20
Would not vote for
another party/none
22 5
Don’t know 8 7
39. 39
Tactical voting isn’t dead…..
You said that you would vote for the … party. If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it
be?
Base: 800 giving a voting intention, 7th-9th September 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Lab
supporters
Lib Dem
supporters
Con
supporters
UKIP
supporters
Conservatives 14 30 - 37
Labour - 31 13 17
Liberal Democrats 30 - 33 9
UKIP 9 7 23 -
Other 16 20 6 17
Would not vote for
another party/none
22 5 17 16
Don’t know 8 7 9 4
42. 42
Is the Labour lead fragile?
Labour have held a consistent lead, and some
conditions in your favour
But:
– losing ground on the number 1 issue, the economy
– Ed Miliband still not convincing the public
– Risky to just rely on switching Libdems?