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Structured Finance and the recent
turmoil

              J. Ericsson
Primer on Structured Credit
  Credit default swaps.
  Collateralized debt obligations.




© Leaders Name                        Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
Intuition
  Buying a corporate bond and insuring the default
   risk (CDS) is the same as buying a government bond
   to start with.
  Buying a treasury and selling insurance (CDS) is
   equivalent to buying a corporate bond synthetically.
  AIG was a big seller of various forms of default
   insurance.
  Lehman was an important counterparty to CDS
   contracts (300 vs. 6 $B)

                                                             5
© Leaders Name                               Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
Basic CDO structure




                 Individual CDS        ... are pooled ...   ... and tranched
                 Contracts / credits


                                                                                   7
© Leaders Name                                                     Course Number
– who were the CDO tranche buyers?
      – how does one sell an equity tranche to a
        pension fund?
      – problems – leverage and transparency
        combined with a brand new market
        barely understood by many participants.


© Leaders Name                            Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
A not very virtuous loop of
      –  low rates >
      –  increasing RE prices >
      –  new categories of homebuyers accepting
         harsher terms >
      –  Institutions securitizing lower quality loans and
         creating “safer” securities (and some riskier
         equity tranches) >
      –  Buy side financial institutions funding investments
         in these securities by borrowing short term at
         lower yields (cf riding the yield curve).
© Leaders Name                                     Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number
FED REACTION – liquidity vs solvency

  crisis mainly viewed as a market liquidity
   problem between late summer 2007 and
   2008
  central bank significantly extended its
   balance sheet to address the liquidity
   problem and the seizure of money markets.
  This led to perverse incentives -- “problem
   collateral” found its way to central banks.

© Leaders Name                          Course Number
•  Take over of Fannie and Freddie and the
   collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the near
   failure of others have demonstrated that the
   problem is one of solvency as well as
   illiquidity.




© Leaders Name                          Course Number
– Now that the crisis is viewed more as a
        solvency problem , FED is approaching the
        problem by seeking to “nationalize”
        problem assets and hold them until the
        housing prices stabilize.
      – This raises questions about incentives: a)
        recapitalization requirements, b) equity
        stake for tax payers etc...


© Leaders Name                            Course Number
© Leaders Name   Course Number

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MBA Panel on the crisis, Montreal November 2008

  • 1. Structured Finance and the recent turmoil J. Ericsson
  • 2. Primer on Structured Credit   Credit default swaps.   Collateralized debt obligations. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 3. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 4. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 5. Intuition   Buying a corporate bond and insuring the default risk (CDS) is the same as buying a government bond to start with.   Buying a treasury and selling insurance (CDS) is equivalent to buying a corporate bond synthetically.   AIG was a big seller of various forms of default insurance.   Lehman was an important counterparty to CDS contracts (300 vs. 6 $B) 5 © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 6. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 7. Basic CDO structure Individual CDS ... are pooled ... ... and tranched Contracts / credits 7 © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 8. – who were the CDO tranche buyers? – how does one sell an equity tranche to a pension fund? – problems – leverage and transparency combined with a brand new market barely understood by many participants. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 9. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 10. A not very virtuous loop of –  low rates > –  increasing RE prices > –  new categories of homebuyers accepting harsher terms > –  Institutions securitizing lower quality loans and creating “safer” securities (and some riskier equity tranches) > –  Buy side financial institutions funding investments in these securities by borrowing short term at lower yields (cf riding the yield curve). © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 11. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 12. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 13. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 14. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 15. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 16. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 17. FED REACTION – liquidity vs solvency   crisis mainly viewed as a market liquidity problem between late summer 2007 and 2008   central bank significantly extended its balance sheet to address the liquidity problem and the seizure of money markets.   This led to perverse incentives -- “problem collateral” found its way to central banks. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 18. •  Take over of Fannie and Freddie and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the near failure of others have demonstrated that the problem is one of solvency as well as illiquidity. © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 19. – Now that the crisis is viewed more as a solvency problem , FED is approaching the problem by seeking to “nationalize” problem assets and hold them until the housing prices stabilize. – This raises questions about incentives: a) recapitalization requirements, b) equity stake for tax payers etc... © Leaders Name Course Number
  • 20. © Leaders Name Course Number