The future of healthcare, patients and Pharma

1. The future of heath care,
patients and pharma
Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.
Futurist
Centre for Future Studies
http://uk.fremforsk.dk/

2. A society based on
expectations
 We are so used to economic growth in our
societies that we expect it every year – constant
improvement!
 In Sweden and Denmark around 2,5% every year,
in Norway it used to be 3,5% - now things have
changed
 National health service need room for
improvement to – we are used to growth
 If public services do not improve, we experience it
as a decline and a step backwards

3. Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Demographic development
Denmark 2016-2026
-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +

4. Demographic development
Denmark, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 627373 684088 56715
10-19 683865 655021 -28844
20-29 748732 760112 11380
30-39 673593 783309 109716
40-49 797159 685829 -111330
50-59 765248 782877 17629
60-69 681207 720045 38838
70-79 486316 584522 98206
80-89 200294 312632 112338
90 + 43464 52767 9303
Total 5707251 6021202 313951

5. Demographic development
Norway 2016-2026,
Middelprognosen
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +

6. Demographic development
Norway, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 630873 685970 55097
10-19 634657 667636 32979
20-29 709180 716064 6884
30-39 696814 810259 113445
40-49 747983 732484 -15499
50-59 662199 744729 82530
60-69 569712 625803 56091
70-79 355382 495764 140382
80-89 175073 236659 61586
90 + 43684 45394 1710
total 5.225.557 5.760.762 535.205

7. Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 62016
Demographic development
Sweden 2016-26
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100 +

8. Demographic development
Sweden, real numbers
Kilde: Danmarks Statistik, 2016
Age 2016 2026 Ændring
0-9 1192682 1367038 174356
10-19 1089548 1327842 238294
20-29 1345098 1323030 -22068
30-39 1252714 1546973 294259
40-49 1305967 1343908 37941
50-59 1247213 1337046 89833
60-69 1136325 1208866 72541
70-79 897455 1006928 109473
80-89 409519 611217 201698
90 + 97384 108426 11042
Total 9.973.905 11.181.274 1.207.369

10. Health – a global trend
 Becoming richer and richer
 Our body in a runaway world – the new arena of
control and attention
 Health as an important issue at many agendas
 Family: Food diet, exercise, lifestyle – optimizing
your health
 Public services – first class improvements wanted
 Shopping arenas – incorporated in the setup
 Treatment: the more the better

11. The New Phases of Life
0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60
2000
1960
2030
Childhood
Teenager
Parents/
family
Elder
Freedom 1 Senior
Freedom 2

12. The patient of the future
 Do not believe in authorities, doctors and others experts
anymore
 Have become their own expert on health, treatment and
cure
 Want pharmaceuticals that fits their personality
 Have already been in contact with their bank, lawyer,
governmental heath authorities and private advisers
 Will also been seen very soon in Mexico, India and
China!
 Although TEVA is selling prescriptive drugs, TEVA will
need more focus at the end users in the future

13. Give me a diagnosis and
some treatment
 Diagnosis in demand – we what an explanation
 We also want a better and enhanced
functionality – better health, better heart, higher
performance in sports and at home
 A person in good health is a person we haven't
examined in great details – any person can be
turned into a patient if you do enough tests and
screenings
 We simply want more!

14. Unwanted medical
interaction
 More and more people become
chronic patients – taking medicine for treatment of
hypertension, high cholesterol, allergy and asthma
 More and more diseases and unhealthy conditions can
be treated
 Consumption of medicine per citizen is growing faster
and faster
 Patients with disorders caused by unwanted interaction
from different forms om medical treatment will be major
problem in the future – growing fast in numbers
 The assembly line thinking at hospitals must go!

15. Polarization of
Patients
Middleclass:
 Enjoys growing prosperity in the Nordic countries
 Higher expectations and demands towards the
welfare state
The new underclass :
 Life strategy – getting lucky!
 Lacks most personal and social resources
 Shorter expected lifespan, unhealthy lifestyle, do
not listed to middleclass advice and guidance
 Getting them to live a better life requires field work
and practical side-by-side learning ad guidance

16. Disruptive technology

20. 3D print

22. Wearables – already i
many forms and shapes

23. The digital revolution
Version 3.0
 We are in the middle of a real digital revolution
that changes the way we work, produce and
communicate in a new digital society.
 Its often invisible to us – or getting invisible
 Digital structure and software has become a
basic part of peoples lives and public and
privates companies
 Sharing economy is not sharing, but creating
new markets and businesses using smart
phones

24. Average time spend on social
media jan-marts 2015 og jan-
marts 2016, US
2015
2016

25. EU and Health
 Health have been a part of EU political frame since
2007
 Target: Creating equal assess to treatment and care
 We had – and still have – 28 (27) very different
systems of health care in the EU
 EU is creating a number of targeted initiatives
regarding alcohol, nutrition and access to treatment
at hospitals
 A single market for public health service is a long
way away

26. The health sector
 Under growing economic pressure due to better
treatments, aging populations and higher level
demands from patients
 Bigger and better hospitals
 Fewer hours at the hospital for each patient
 Growing focus on consultation and treatment -
digital and at distance
 AI diagnosis and a helping digital “hand” to
doctors & nurses and in operating theaters

27. Hospitals and the health
sector in the future
 Increased specialization and division of labour
 Patients at ”Drive in diagnosis centres”
treatment at the spot!
 Productivity and efficiency in fokus – just
continuing
 Measurement and benchmarking
 Pressure from above at the employees: More in
quantity and better in quality
 Documentation & evidence

28. Patients and systems
 Patients and citizens can not be expected to know
how the system really works – but they are!
 Someone has to create the links and transitions
from GP’s to specialist & hospitals – and from
hospitals to municipal care and after treatment
 If not we will see more patients going in and out of
hospitals without getting better
 This could be very true for the patients you supply
medical treatment to

29. Six Generations
Baby Boomers
Born 1940-54
Post war generation –
educational boom
Reinventing every phase of
life
Rock, beat, soul
Tech: The pill
Generation Jones
Recently discovered
Large generation
Design, ethics, idea
Against divorce, pro family
– tech: Stereo set
Born 1955-67
Generation X
The so-what generation
Small after the pill
Selfcenteret, extrovert
Personal succes, Video,
workaholics, love brands
Born 1968-79
Generation Y
The smallest gen.
Fun shoppers, great social
skills, Myself inc.,
situational consumption
managing many choices
1980-89, PC, cell phone
Generation Z
Between war gen.,
Project & trophy kids
Be famous, groups based
Digital natives
Born 1990-2001
New Millenium
After 9-11 generation
Cultural homogenization
EU as native soil
Wi–Fi (Wireless internet)
Født 2001 - 2011

30. Generation Y ( 1980-89)
..and as patients
The first online and Google it! ..Information, shopping,
chatting, uploads of pics and videos
The digital natives
Personal recognition for what I say or do
Wants special treatment and something made just for them
Praise them – every day and every time you meet them
Praise them for the way they behave as patients – even if
they are not doing so well
Then are very fast to search for an alternative opinion and
alternative treatment of their medical condition

31. Generation Z
 Socialization: Kindergartens
 Inhabitant of the internet and internet shopping malls:
The digital natives
 Can´t remember a life without a PC and a cell-phone
 Without the cell-phone ”I feel Naked”
 Social networking is a must in life
 Among Peers
 Personal recognition for what I say or do
 Personalized treatment, special attention to me
 Wants a digital diagnosis when they are building a
school in Africa or trekking in Himalaya

32. ”Born digital”
Generation Z

33. Pharma in the future
 Growing and aging population, demand for diagnosis
and treatment, new pharma and new cures – It is a great
world!
 How to create a growing number of chronic patients? –
go find them, make new tests, new screening programs
etc.
 Preventive medicine will soar
 From general to personalized drugs
 The other side of the coin: Demanding research, shorter
earning windows for new drugs, harder competition and
shortage of highly qualified workers

34. Who eats who?
Darwin:
Survival of the fittest
Size is not important and it
is not always good to be
fast
Managers plays a vital role
in keeping the company fit

35. Jesper Bo Jensen
Fremforsk
- Centre for Future Studies
Balticagade 15, st. th.
8000 Aarhus C
E jbj@fremforsk.dk
T +45 86 11 47 44
M +45 20 67 45 00
www.fremforsk.dk/en
Instagram og twitter:
#fremforsk
@JesperBoJensen
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LinkedIn: Fremforsk