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A simulation is an imitation of chance
behavior, most often carried out with random
Rolling a Die
Flipping a Coin
Random Number Table
(refer to as Table D)
RandInt (on the
The command is
Pulling a card (or
cards) from a deck of
A couple wants to have a boy to carry on the
family name. If they keep having children
until they get a boy what is the probability
that they will have boy before they have five
Assign H – boy and T – girl
Flip a coin 5 times and record your results
Do this experiment 20 times and record
On average, how many children did the
couple have before they had a boy?
◦ If your result was GGBGB you would label that result
line as 3 because the third child was a boy.
◦ Average your 20 lines.
◦ Come and list your averages:
◦ Class average:
Go to page 290 and read the green box with
“Golden Ticket Parking Lottery”
What is the probability that a fair lottery
would result in 2 winners from the same
Use Table D
◦ Label AP students O1-28
◦ Label all other students 29-95
There are 4 marbles in a bag (blue, red,
green, yellow). What is the probability that
you choose a yellow marble?
If you are assigning students to 6 groups in a
class, what is the probability that a group
ends up with all members being girls?
You have a choice of 3 colleges to attend. If
you wanted to randomly choose, what is the
probability that you chose the one that was in
Each box of cereal contains 1 collectible card.
There are 5 different collectible cards
available, each with a different driver.
Each of the 5 cards are equally likely to be in
your cereal box.
What is the probability that it will take 23 or
more boxes to get a full set of 5 NASCAR
Label 1 – Jeff Gordon
Label 2 – Dale Earnhardt, Jr
Label 3 – Tony Stewart
Label 4 – Danica Patrick
Label 5 – Jimmie Johnson
RandInt(1,5) simulates buying one box of
cereal and looking at the card.
Since we want a full set of cards, we will keep
pressing enter until we get all five labels from
1-5 and record how many times it took.
Do this 10 times and record how many boxes it
took you each time.
Did anyone have to buy more than 22 boxes
before you got all 5 cards?
The probability that it will take 23 boxes of
cereal before collecting all 5 cards is roughly 0.
State: What is the question of interest about
some chance process?
Plan: Describe how to use a chance device to
imitate one repetition of the process. Explain
clearly how to identify the outcomes of the
chance process and what variable to measure.
Do: Perform many repetitions of the
Conclude: Use the result of our simulation to
answer the question of interest.